2015-2016 Offseason Thread

[TheLeviathan]

I think Heyward is wildly overrated, but he will provide some things the Cubs lack.

[biggentleben]

 

I think Heyward is wildly overrated, but he will provide some things the Cubs lack.

 

Agree with both. I think that's where some of the analysis on this already is missing the mark. You can think the player is overrated, the deal is crazy, but that the fit is good between player and organization.

[drjim]

 

Agree with both. I think that's where some of the analysis on this already is missing the mark. You can think the player is overrated, the deal is crazy, but that the fit is good between player and organization.

 

Agree with this as well. It will be especially good for the Cubs if they can sign a CF and flip Soler for a starting pitcher.

 

Heyward is certainly good and still young, but I'm slightly skeptical when a significant part of the value is tied into being a much better defender than the 30th ranked RF in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

One advantage for the Twins, no Pirates or Cardinals in their division.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I ranked Ryan ahead of Hoyer and Lunhow.   I think Ryan has done a better job considering where he came in and what the situation was when he took over compared to the other two.  He doesn't have the financial resources of the Cubs and didn't have 4+ years of high picks already in the system that Lunhow did (not to mention, the permission to lose 110 games).  I do think the Twins will be better than the Astros and Cubs (although I also believe strongly that the NL is an inferior league so I'm not overly concerned about the Cubs record) over the next five years, too.

I get defending Ryan and saying he's done a good job, but even relative to his constraints, but I can't say that he's done a better job than the Cubs and Astros GMs.

 

Also, for the Twins to be better than the Cubs and Astros over the next 5 years, you have to do a lot of projecting to have the Twins not only catch up (assuming we all agree they're decidedly behind them at the moment) but pass those teams enough to make up for that.  Correa? Russell? Bryant? Keuchel? Arrieta? This isn't like catching up to the creaky Tigers or shaky White Sox, these are some damn good clubs.  The Twins might have to be the best team in baseball over the next 5 years to be better than them.

[big dog]

 

they were ahead before all that, right?

As I mentioned, I also admire the vision, etc.  I do have a hard time separating it all, though.  You can always take more chances when there is enough money to just get a do-over.  The whole risk-reward relationship is shifted.  So yes, I like what the Cubs are doing, but I also recognize it's a lot easier for them than it is for perhaps half or two-thirds of the other teams to do the same things.

 

I have more respect yet for the Astros, who are doing it without the printing press.  Not to mention the Cardinals, who never seem to miss a beat, or at least not more than one.

 

I go back to my main point- I wish the Twins had a great local TV contract and a ton of money.  Whether TR is the guy who could best spend the money is a separate conversation.

[PseudoSABR]

 

how should I judge the rebuilds in Houston, MN, and Chicago?

As works in progress, with Houston and Chicago being a year ahead.  

[drjim]

 

As works in progress, with Houston and Chicago being a year ahead.  

 

Is Houston actually a year ahead? They had 3 more wins in an easier division. The next couple of years will tell more.

 

Chicago has lapped both in my mind.

[biggentleben]

Michael Cuddyer announced his retirement, per a report on MLBTR. He'll be missed in the game.

[Einstein1]

Ken Giles for Mark Appel.  Interesting move.  Seems to be a bit early to give up on Appel, but they got a decent return.  

[gunnarthor]

Wow, the Giles trade is turning up great for the Phillies.  Apparently the original trade which had Fischer blew up because of a physical.  

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Charlie Morton traded by the Pirates to the Phillies; Philadelphia DFAs AJ Achter to make room...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ken Giles for Mark Appel.  Interesting move.  Seems to be a bit early to give up on Appel, but they got a decent return.

 

Looks like a good trade for both teams. Giles could be a monster. Was Appel even the Astros centerpiece do you think?

[biggentleben]

 

Looks like a good trade for both teams. Giles could be a monster. Was Appel even the Astros centerpiece do you think?

 

No, Velasquez was the centerpiece of the deal from the get-go, and he still is. Appel is only in there because Fisher failed a physical, and the two teams had to re-work the deal. I do think the Phillies worked this deal further in their favor after some of the media backlash initially to their original trade package, which truly was underwhelming considering Giles' two years of dominance and relative cheap price compared to Craig Kimbrel and that San Diego got a markedly better prospect package. This deal is now along those same lines in total value, I'd say, though I'm not sure that I'd buy at all on Appel right now. I may be proven wrong, but watching him a few times last year looked nothing different than dozens of journeyman pitchers who wash out in AA. I know he has the pedigree, but perhaps, he just never does achieve it. Sometimes that happens. Wise of the Astros to get out from him before it did, though.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

No, Velasquez was the centerpiece of the deal from the get-go, and he still is. Appel is only in there because Fisher failed a physical, and the two teams had to re-work the deal. I do think the Phillies worked this deal further in their favor after some of the media backlash initially to their original trade package, which truly was underwhelming considering Giles' two years of dominance and relative cheap price compared to Craig Kimbrel and that San Diego got a markedly better prospect package. This deal is now along those same lines in total value, I'd say, though I'm not sure that I'd buy at all on Appel right now. I may be proven wrong, but watching him a few times last year looked nothing different than dozens of journeyman pitchers who wash out in AA. I know he has the pedigree, but perhaps, he just never does achieve it. Sometimes that happens. Wise of the Astros to get out from him before it did, though.

so what were the Twins equivalents: Berrios, Stewart(Appel), maybe Milone or viable AAA arm, and low A guy?

[biggentleben]

 

so what were the Twins equivalents: Berrios, Stewart(Appel), maybe Milone or viable AAA arm, and low A guy?

 

Sounds about right in value, though I think Berrios might have a higher floor than Velasquez, even though Velasquez has reached the majors already.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't know if we have the pitching depth to take the hit on a trade like that, but corner IF/OF depth, yes, easily.

[biggentleben]

 

I don't know if we have the pitching depth to take the hit on a trade like that, but corner IF/OF depth, yes, easily.

 

That's sort of the issue with these deals, though. There's so few teams who can even come to the table that it's tough if you can't work it out with one particular team. The Jose Fernandez one is a great example. They asked the Dodgers for Urias and Seager BOTH. Who else in baseball can even start trade discussion if that's what they're asking?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's sort of the issue with these deals, though. There's so few teams who can even come to the table that it's tough if you can't work it out with one particular team. The Jose Fernandez one is a great example. They asked the Dodgers for Urias and Seager BOTH. Who else in baseball can even start trade discussion if that's what they're asking?

Agree. The Giles for Velasquez+Appel trades are fun to follow because each team has to stick its neck out a little. Any trade involving Jose Fernandez will more closely resemble a hostage situation.

[nicksaviking]

Who's got ESPN Insidee? Just curious what grade Jim Bowden has given the Twin's offseason.

 

I'm only curious and put no weight in anything he says, I usually find his ramblings cringeworthy. Few folks would decide to hand out offseason grades in mid-Decembee, he must plan on taking the rest of the winter off.

 

My bet, he gives the Twins a C- for doing nothing to address the bullpen and being on the wrong end of the Hicks/Murphy deal but he likes the aggressiveness of the Park deal, while using last year's Korean import Kang as the basis of his approval because Bowden can't be troubled to do much more than rehash the prevailing talking points he hears from other pundits.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who's got ESPN Insidee? Just curious what grade Jim Bowden has given the Twin's offseason.

I'm only curious and put no weight in anything he says, I usually find his ramblings cringeworthy. Few folks would decide to hand out offseason grades in mid-Decembee, he must plan on taking the rest of the winter off.

My bet, he gives the Twins a C- for doing nothing to address the bullpen and being on the wrong end of the Hicks/Murphy deal but he likes the aggressiveness of the Park deal, while using last year's Korean import Kang as the basis of his approval because Bowden can't be troubled to do much more than rehash the prevailing talking points he hears from other pundits.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=11907

 

C+

 

The Twins added a potential impact power bat in Park, who is expected to be their full-time designated hitter as they move Miguel Sano to one of the outfield corners. Murphy, picked up from the Yankees for Aaron Hicks, should eventually be their long-term solution at catcher.

[biggentleben]

So, for their Winterfest, the Nationals had a Lip Sync Battle of sorts. Bryce Harper participated, but what he did should win over fans (though the writer of the article did him no favors by attempting to convince readers that Harper was actually singing - which he obviously was not, but this is a great moment for Harper, and yet another reason that I'm becoming more and more a fan of his:

 

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/12/13/159577770/washington-nationals-winterfest-bryce-harper-sings-my-girl

[TheLeviathan]

 

So, for their Winterfest, the Nationals had a Lip Sync Battle of sorts. Bryce Harper participated, but what he did should win over fans (though the writer of the article did him no favors by attempting to convince readers that Harper was actually singing - which he obviously was not, but this is a great moment for Harper, and yet another reason that I'm becoming more and more a fan of his:

 

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/12/13/159577770/washington-nationals-winterfest-bryce-harper-sings-my-girl

 

He clearly was singing at like 75% for a few seconds there in the middle.  Someone should've tried to punch him for that lack of effort.

[bluechipper]

Johnny Cueto signed with the Giants for 6 years and $130M. I think that counts as a bargain.

 

The NL West is stacked.

[Vanimal46]

I would say that's a huge bargain compared to what Grienke and Price got. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Cueto also has a buy out after 2 years, where he can explore the open market again in his age 32 season.

[Vanimal46]

I would have put my money on Cueto landing with the Dodgers after they struck out on Grienke. Now, on paper at least, the Dodgers have the 3rd best rotation in the division. It appears that the times are a changin' in the NL West. 

[Willihammer]

Its an opt out not a buyout but year, looks good for the Giants IMO. Strong chance it goes as well for them as the Greinke deal did for LA.

[Mike Sixel]

One or two of these big spenders will not make the playoffs in the west.....Somehow proving money can't buy wins. Ignoring the spending of the team that wins the division and the role that played.

 

I like that almost none of that was in full sentences

[Otto von Ballpark]

Iwakuma NOT to the Dodgers, but back to Seattle:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/mariners-resign-hisashi-iwakuma.html

 

I wonder if this pressures the Dodgers to get Jose Fernandez?  That would be fun.  I can't see them being terribly thrilled with any of the remaining FA SP (Chen, Leake, Gallardo, Kennedy, Kazmir).  They could also take Shields contract if the Padres so desired (and the two teams traded last winter, despite being in the same division).

[Vanimal46]

Another loss for the Dodgers... I suppose they could go after Fernandez. There's a few trade options they could explore: Cleveland's starting pitching, Tampa Bay. Or they could let the Julio Urias show begin next season.