Sonny Gray

[JackFinley]

First I want to say that I'm new to the site and it's a great read. Very Cool.

 

What would it take to pry Sonny Gray away from Oakland?

 

Gibson, Kepler, Stewart & A ball pitcher dujour?

 

Gray, Berrios, Duffey would be fun to watch for years to come.

 

 

Sorry if this has already been addressed and called ludicrous.

[Sdrapes]

We need to make a splash in some way...Im open to the idea.

[sane]

 

What would it take to pry Sonny Gray away from Oakland?


Sorry if this has already been addressed and called ludicrous.

1) EVERYTHING "has already been addressed and called ludicrous" so don't let that stop you!

and

2) It didn't take that much to pry away Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson and Addison Russell from Oakland.

 

[Physics Guy]

Welcome to the board! Check this out:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20533-article-chasing-an-ace/

[USAFChief]

Welcome to the board!

 

As sane pointed out above, nothing is ludicrous...and everything is ludicrous. At the same time! That's one of the things that makes this place special.

 

Personally, I would rather they spend money than good prospects whenever possible, but I sure wouldn't mind upgrading the starting pitching. And with unlimited minutes on most cell plans these days, what would it hurt to call Oakland and ask?

[nicksaviking]

Welcome aboard and great topic. It has been discussed, mostly in regards to whether Gray is actually an ace.

 

Personally, I don't think he misses enough bats, which is already a problem in this team. If the Twins are going to give up some painful prospects I'd hope it would be for someone who does. I'd prefer to target a Cleveland or NYM starter if we're going this route.

[Thrylos]

 

1) EVERYTHING "has already been addressed and called ludicrous" so don't let that stop you!

and

2) It didn't take that much to pry away Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson and Addison Russell from Oakland.

 

 

Yoenis Cespedes took an Ace (Jon Lester) plus a usable OF (Gomes) - The Twins have nothing equivalent

 

Donaldson took a current top 100 MLB prospect (Barreto) and a productive MLB player who was former top 40 prospect (Lowrie)   Think Berrios and Hicks in equivalent terms (but Lowrie has been more productive than Hicks)

 

Addison Russell was a minor league prospect who was traded for 2 established top/middle rotation starters (Samardzija and Hammel)  - different type of a trade, like the Twins trading Buxton for two of the Mets' starters (I'd do that in a heartbeat btw )

 

The A's got a lot back...

 

The A's got really good returns

 

[bluechipper]

 

Yoenis Cespedes took an Ace (Jon Lester) plus a usable OF (Gomes) - The Twins have nothing equivalent

 

Donaldson took a current top 100 MLB prospect (Barreto) and a productive MLB player who was former top 40 prospect (Lowrie)   Think Berrios and Hicks in equivalent terms (but Lowrie has been more productive than Hicks)

 

Addison Russell was a minor league prospect who was traded for 2 established top/middle rotation starters (Samardzija and Hammel)  - different type of a trade, like the Twins trading Buxton for two of the Mets' starters (I'd do that in a heartbeat btw )

 

The A's got a lot back...

 

The A's got really good returns

Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel are worth nowhere near the same value of any of the Mets top four pitchers. That was a ridiculous trade by the A's.

[sane]

 

Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel are worth nowhere near the same value of any of the Mets top four pitchers. That was a ridiculous trade by the A's.

Exactly!

The A's DROPPED a lot back!

They went from the playoffs to 68-94 (worst record in the AL).

They got back PROSPECTS for Cespedes (carried Mets offensively), Donaldson (Blue Jays MVP) and Russell (elite SS prospect) for three rentals (Samalphabet, Lester, Hammel) and a punk (Gomes).

 

[Steve Penz]

Surely this has been asked but here goes. Does his 7ish strikeout rate concern anybody. Oakland's park is huge. How much does he benefit from all that space? Maybe he is not as good as he seems?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Surely this has been asked but here goes. Does his 7ish strikeout rate concern anybody. Oakland's park is huge. How much does he benefit from all that space? Maybe he is not as good as he seems?

His career road numbers are good so playing half his games in Oakland isn't a big concern.

 

But I have mild concerns over his K rate.

[sane]

 

Does his 7ish strikeout rate concern anybody. Oakland's park is huge. How much does he benefit from all that space? Maybe he is not as good as he seems?

Oakland's big park will HURT a pitcher's strikeout rate, but HELP most other pitcher's stats.

A caught foul-ball is a good thing for the pitcher, but it takes away from his chances for a strikeout.

[ashbury]

Oakland's big park will HURT a pitcher's strikeout rate, but HELP most other pitcher's stats.

A caught foul-ball is a good thing for the pitcher, but it takes away from his chances for a strikeout.

Nice fangraphs article on foul catches, coming from a different angle but containing useful-looking data:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/foul-ground-home-field-advantage/

 

If I'm reading it correctly, covering two seasons there were roughly 200 foul catches made by the A's, versus a typical number nearer to 100 for other teams at home. Confirming the park bias is that visiting teams also caught fouls at a similar rate. My takeaway from the table there is that the Coliseum fosters about 45-50 more foul catches per season than the average ballpark

 

(I could have misunderstood something - I don't quite feel like contacting the author for confirmation. )

 

That's a lot, more than I realized even though I knew of the park's reputation for a large foul territory. As is conventional wisdom, this number seems large enough to account for a significant portion of the park's pitcher-friendly reputation and stats.

 

However, because a foul catch not made doesn't result automatically in a strikeout in the remainder of the at bat, it gets iffy to chalk up much of a pitcher's K/9 rate to this factor. If say 22% of AL plate appearances in 2015 resulted in strikeouts, maybe the entire team lost 10 strikeouts all year due to excess foul catches, and divvying that among the starters looks like an insignificant factor to anybody's K/9.

[sane]

 

 

However, because a foul catch not made doesn't result automatically in a strikeout in the remainder of the at bat, it gets iffy to chalk up much of a pitcher's K/9 rate to this factor.

 

Because a foul catch made results immediately in a non-strikeout, there is no remainder of the at bat.

 

 

[ashbury]

However, because a foul catch not made doesn't result automatically in a strikeout in the remainder of the at bat, it gets iffy to chalk up much of a pitcher's K/9 rate to this factor.

 

Because a foul catch made results immediately in a non-strikeout, there is no remainder of the at bat.

So how many strikeouts do you think Sonny Gray missed out on by pitching in the Coliseum?

[sane]

So how many strikeouts do you think Sonny Gray missed out on by pitching in the Coliseum?

I have no idea, but I am certain he didn't gain any because of it.

[ashbury]

I am certain he didn't gain any because of it.

We have a firm foundation upon which we can agree.

 

The question I was trying to address was whether or not it was a significant factor affecting his K/9 rate. I presented a reason why it would not be. Do you have something to suggest that it is, and is worth taking into account when evaluating Gray?

[HitInAPinch]

Per GM Billy Beane, Gray is not available:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/11/mlb_trade_rumors_athletics_son.html

[T.C.]

Sonny Gray K/9

Home- 2015- 6.07     2014- 8.06     2013- 8.41

Away-  2015- 8.59     2014- 6.92     2013- 11.19

 

Average

Home- 7.31

Away- 8.10

 

So the Coliseum takes almost a full K/9?

[sane]

Do you have something to suggest that it is, and is worth taking into account when evaluating Gray?

I would think that if the Coliseum gains a pitcher X percent of his outs, then it would also cost him x percent of his strikeouts in each 9-inning segment. So since he gets 27 outs per nine innings and 7 K's per 9 innings.

I think if he gains one out from 27 outs, he would likely lose 1/27 of 7.0 K/9innings,or about .25 strikeouts per nine innings.

ie. if about 1/4 of his outs are strikeouts, in 36 innings he would gain four outs and lose one strikeout. That's my story and I'm sticking with it despite a headache.

[ashbury]

Sonny Gray K/9

Home- 2015- 6.07     2014- 8.06     2013- 8.41

Away-  2015- 8.59     2014- 6.92     2013- 11.19

 

Average

Home- 7.31

Away- 8.10

 

So the Coliseum takes almost a full K/9?

Eeeenteresting. A little strange that it would flip-flop from one season to the next, if there's something fundamental behind the difference. But it is a pretty strong difference. Would be a good question to ask the guy himself, to see whether he has any thoughts about why.

[Thrylos]

 

Eeeenteresting. A little strange that it would flip-flop from one season to the next, if there's something fundamental behind the difference. But it is a pretty strong difference. Would be a good question to ask the guy himself, to see whether he has any thoughts about why.

 

 

To look at park factors, you have to look at the whole team pitching k/9 home vs away.  Here is it (total team) home/away for the last 10 years:

 

2015: 7.0/7.7
2014: 7.4/7.9
2013: 7.2/7.4
2012: 6.7/7.2
2011: 7.4/7.0
2010: 6.9/6.5
2009: 7.1/6.9
2008: 6.6/6.7
2007: 6.2/6.7
2006: 5.9/6.6

 

Looks like it might be a tad higher away, but is it within standard deviation?  Maybe.  And we are talking about a strikeout every 3-4 games difference...

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So how many strikeouts do you think Sonny Gray missed out on by pitching in the Coliseum?

 

Based on your math, the team gets 1 additional out every 3rd game at home, or if you want to simply it, every 2/3 game total.  That's not a guaranteed K either, so at best (based on the park factors mentioned above) .6 K/9.  Most likely .2 K/9.   His home/away splits are a bit more beneficial there as they say there's a 1K/9 difference, so perhaps the means of calculating them are wrong?

 

Not sure.  That said, I'm not sure I'd mortgage a lot on Sonny Gray.  I'm guessing Beane won't be asking for Nolasco and Gibson, and that is what I'd want to give.   

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

To look at park factors, you have to look at the whole team pitching k/9 home vs away.  Here is it (total team) home/away for the last 10 years:

 

2015: 7.0/7.7
2014: 7.4/7.9
2013: 7.2/7.4
2012: 6.7/7.2
2011: 7.4/7.0
2010: 6.9/6.5
2009: 7.1/6.9
2008: 6.6/6.7
2007: 6.2/6.7
2006: 5.9/6.6

 

Looks like it might be a tad higher away, but is it within standard deviation?  Maybe.  And we are talking about a strikeout every 3-4 games difference...

 

I know a thing or two about SPC due to a degree that I earned and never used.  5 data points in a row above average is considered something more than random distribution, which is essentially a factor that can be changed.  4 is not.  That means that the home/road splits are right on the border.  Given the numbers you posted, I think there's a difference, but it really isn't that much... certainly not enough to mortgage the farm. 

[Steve Penz]

Good thread, folks. Thank you for all the information.