Twins' hitter's rank by position

[Otto von Ballpark]

I've seen $100+ million as Chris Davis' projected contract...

[Rosterman]

 

The Twins should have a contingency for first base should Mauer not improve for a third year. Maybe Mauer can move to full time DH sometime in 2016 and that might be less taxing on him mentally. Just an idea.

Kepler COULD be the first baseman of the future. But what do you do with Kepler for two more seasons. Of course, you can play him at Rochester for a full year, moreso at first than in the outfield. You can even hold-him-back a bit in 2017. Then you have the longterm Mauer decision to behold and where do you put him if he desires to play until age 40 or so. Or if the Twins move Sano there. Or Plouffe can play first base. The problem with Plouffe is that he will get a decent arbitration salary this season. But next season his salary would be over $10 million. Is he worth that before going into free agency? Do you sign him for $30-35 million (or more). And, more important, is another team also willing to take that same salary gamble for two years (or more).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Kepler COULD be the first baseman of the future. But what do you do with Kepler for two more seasons. Of course, you can play him at Rochester for a full year, moreso at first than in the outfield. You can even hold-him-back a bit in 2017. Then you have the longterm Mauer decision to behold and where do you put him if he desires to play until age 40 or so. Or if the Twins move Sano there. Or Plouffe can play first base. The problem with Plouffe is that he will get a decent arbitration salary this season. But next season his salary would be over $10 million. Is he worth that before going into free agency? Do you sign him for $30-35 million (or more). And, more important, is another team also willing to take that same salary gamble for two years (or more).

I hope this is exactly how the Twins are war gaming it. Kepler and Vargas are young and inexpensive options, without much of a drop off. Either one might be ready to play full time after another season under their belt. And keeping Plouffe around really complicates things in the infield, as reliable as he's been. He will turn 30 next season.

[DaveW]

I've seen $100+ million as Chris Davis' projected contract...

Twins have the payroll flexibility to do it. 5 years/105 mil

[rghrbek]

According to this link:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/2/9435963/twins-hitters-offense-lucky-runners-on-sops-mlb

The Twins were historically lucky offensively this year.   If this is true, we can expect regression in general to happen.   That's why I would trade Ploufe now and absolutely not resign Hunter.    Our hope is that some of the young guys continue to progress not regress as we move forward.

[jokin]

 

The following list shows Twins' hitter's OPS rank per position. Minimum 300 PA. All MLB.

 

 

Escobar SS .754 OPS 7th out of 32

 

 

 

 

Fangraphs has Escobar's .754 OPS listed at 8th overall.

 

Escobar's also listed as 10th overall in wRC+ at 103

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

One more stat from a slightly different vantage. Twins overall #3 hole in the batting order OPS .683 29th out of 30 teams.

I think Twins fans (or any hometown fan) are WAY too presumptuous in their beliefs in the future value of our players. There seems to be a heavy consideration to recency, without looking at the limitations, circumstances, comparisons, peripherals, etc. What was our belief of Santana, Vargas, Arcia, Suzuki, Dozier, and Hughes heading into last years offseason?

 

One year does not make a career. I was very excited of the success that Rosario, Hicks, Escobar, Plouffe, Kepler, and Duffey showed this year, but I would not be at all surprised if one or all of these guys falls backwards next year, just like last years group of improvers. I think Sano is fine, simply because of his raw power and approach, but he could certainly not be as beastly, and still be successful. All of these guys I mentioned have had some luck and or have major flaws to cover up. I am most confident in Duffey, but still feel he will be closer to 4.00 than 3.00 era next year. 

 

Anyway, just making the point that we "might" have ourselves an average-to-above-average SS, but he might crater next year too, and he certainly hasn't sustained his success for that long to show that he is anything to feel real confident about. I think he can be legit, but definitely sure he will be. 

 

Let's temper our expectations for next year people. I feel that we could be a much better team next year, but actually have have a worse or similar record to this year. We have to assume that we will not be as lucky in the W's as often as we we were this year. 

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Escobar is 26 years old. He has hit consistently well for two years. He hit well in AAA at 24. Relative to his position, his track record through age 26 is better than almost anyone on the roster through their age 26 season. The front office deserves credit for getting great value in exchange for 10 Liriano starts.

[ashbury]

He hit well in AAA at 24.

He hit acceptably in AAA at 22, but back when the discussion was him versus Florimon it was difficult to persuade that this was a useful datapoint.

[Willihammer]

According to this link:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/2/9435963/twins-hitters-offense-lucky-runners-on-sops-mlb

The Twins were historically lucky offensively this year.   If this is true, we can expect regression in general to happen.   That's why I would trade Ploufe now and absolutely not resign Hunter.    Our hope is that some of the young guys continue to progress not regress as we move forward.

 

This split perhaps best epitomizes the 2015 Twins. They've made worse contact with runners on base — their soft-hit rate has increased from 17.8 percent to 19.1 percent, while their hard-hit rate has dipped from 29.7 to 26.5 percent — and yet, somehow, they've scrapped out enough hits to gain sixty runs more than a normal team would. They shouldn't have done it, but somehow they have.

That's really interesting.

[puckstopper1]

 

Oswaldo Arcia, career OPS: .741, career SLG. .437

Trevor Plouffe, career OPS: .728, career SLG. .420

 

Now that being said, Arcia's problems in the minors the second half of this season are troubling, and probably sufficient to hedge on whether he would be expected better than Plouffe in 2016. However, based on past major league statistics, which is what you seem to be going on, Sano plus Arcia would be better than Sano plus Plouffe. I don't understand how the charts/stats above possibly say otherwise.

 

NYTWINS - the stats above are from THIS season.  You quoted career stats.  Neither Plouffe nor Arcia performed to the career norms this past season.  Plouffe (SLG = .435, OPS = .742, OPS+ = 99) was better and Arcia (SLG = .379, OPS = .718, OPS+ = 96) was worse.  So to think that this will reverse going into next season is overly optimistic in my opinion. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What makes me the most nervous about getting rid of Plouffe and Hunter is losing the HR's (44) and RBI's (167). Most likely Sano's numbers will increase with a full season, but I doubt he's going to hit 40 HR's and 138 RBI's, which is what he'd need to hit to cover his stats from this season plus Plouffe's. Then you also have to replace Hunter's numbers. Counting on Arcia really scares me. Yes he has HR's and a solid OPS, but he played terrible this season and can't be trusted in the field. It seems like Hicks has figured it out, but I'm not fully convinced yet. Rosario was great this season, but is he another Santana or Vargas? Buxton will likely start the season in AAA unless he comes to spring training and is hitting the cover off the ball. 

 

So really the Twins have Rosario and Hicks for the outfield to start next season. Who will play RF and please don't say Arcia? He shouldn't even be given a glove next season.

 

RBI's are situational, so I woudln't get too worked up about them.  I think you need to worry about whether or not the overall production changes.  I'm more concrned in that aspect about Plouffe than Hunter.  Hunter was really good in May, but beyond that, he looked every bit old and washed up.  I'd be concerned about keeping him around another year and his hot streak only lasting a week.  As for replacing it.  I think that Sano, Arcia, Vargas is going to produce more offensively net season than Sano, Plouffe, Hunter did this year, or what they would do next year.

 

As for backups.  I think Kepler is probably closer than people realize and will likely make a strong case for that starting job this spring.  Not only did he dominate AA, but he had a nice powerspike the last couple months too.  He's also still very young.  I do think the Twins would be wise in getting a part time OF for 2016 while this sorts itself out a bit, as I expect some bumps.  As well, I think a good case can be made to get a AAAA guy to stash in Rochester as an additional option should it be needed. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

NYTWINS - the stats above are from THIS season.  You quoted career stats.  Neither Plouffe nor Arcia performed to the career norms this past season.  Plouffe (SLG = .435, OPS = .742, OPS+ = 99) was better and Arcia (SLG = .379, OPS = .718, OPS+ = 96) was worse.  So to think that this will reverse going into next season is overly optimistic in my opinion. 

 

Arcia had 65 PAs in the majors this season, hardly enough to draw any conclusions from.  Plus you were discussing "consistency," so to me that means over more than a single season, but I get your point. I think overall (not just one season) of major league track record (over which time, btw Arcia was younger than Plouffe, and is thus more likely to improve) is generally a better predictor of future performance.

[KGB]

 

RBI's are situational, so I woudln't get too worked up about them.  I think you need to worry about whether or not the overall production changes.  I'm more concrned in that aspect about Plouffe than Hunter. 

 

RBI are situational based on what you do with your opportunities.  According to Baseball Reference here's what the Twins top RBI players did:

 

               Base           BR
Player   Runners     Scored            BRS%
Hunter       329           60                18.2%
Plouffe       392           67                17.1%
Mauer        365           58                15.9%
Dozier        350           50                14.3%

 

Hunter actually was the Twins best hitter in driving in runs given the opportunity.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

RBI's are situational, so I woudln't get too worked up about them.  I think you need to worry about whether or not the overall production changes.  I'm more concrned in that aspect about Plouffe than Hunter.  Hunter was really good in May, but beyond that, he looked every bit old and washed up.  I'd be concerned about keeping him around another year and his hot streak only lasting a week.  As for replacing it.  I think that Sano, Arcia, Vargas is going to produce more offensively net season than Sano, Plouffe, Hunter did this year, or what they would do next year.

 

As for backups.  I think Kepler is probably closer than people realize and will likely make a strong case for that starting job this spring.  Not only did he dominate AA, but he had a nice powerspike the last couple months too.  He's also still very young.  I do think the Twins would be wise in getting a part time OF for 2016 while this sorts itself out a bit, as I expect some bumps.  As well, I think a good case can be made to get a AAAA guy to stash in Rochester as an additional option should it be needed. 

I have absolutely no faith in Vargas or Arcia. I don't see how the front office and honestly justify trading Plouffe away this winter and trying to rely on Sano at 3B and Arcia or Vargas being viable options at DH. They should be bench bats and nothing else. If either of them were average or great this season I'd be fine with it but neither of them were. Arica was especially bad. I'd much rather have Plouffe, Sano and Mauer rotate between 1B, 3B and DH than have either Arcia or Vargas to start the season as the every day 3B. 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Dozier plays almost every game again and falls quite flat during the second half again. I think there is a lesson to be learned there.

 

You just gotta believe Mauer gets it back. It doesn't make sense for him to just fall this far without it being concussion-related and a loonnnggg recovery. Maybe one more offseason makes the difference like it did for Morneau.

 

The OF is fixed, overall (likely outcome is slightly above average OPS+ and top notch defense for 2016--I take that in a heartbeat).

 

I would take a chance on the catcher position by going after a young catcher (anything is likely to improve on 2015).

 

I will favor Arcia over Plouffe, especially given the latter's going to be worth a bit more in a trade and he is also going to be aging soon. And he bats from the wrong side to be behind Sano. Hicks-Mauer-Sano-Arcia (unless offseason and ST go terribly)-Dozier-Rosario-Escobar-Catcher-Buxton looks nice to me. Let it fly.

 

The Yankees are looking big time for a second baseman.  Would you trade Dozier for Gary Sanchez and Dellin Betances?   The Twins have to sell high on him...

[DaveW]

The Yankees are looking big time for a second baseman. Would you trade Dozier for Gary Sanchez and Dellin Betances? The Twins have to sell high on him...

In a heartbeat

 

Yankees won't do that trade though.