Projecting Kepler: Fangraphs article

[Mike Frasier Law]

Interesting read today at Fangraphs about Kepler. Short version: based on 2015 in isolation, he projects to be an absolute beast. The debate is whether 2015 is his true talent and previous years are his learning curve, or whether his true talent is somewhere between.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-twins-outfielder-max-kepler/

[Otto von Ballpark]

Thanks for the link!

 

Based on his AA stats and age, this is what they found as comparables:

 

 

Joey Votto is on a Hall of Fame career path, while several others were excellent players in their primes. Marcus Giles, Mark Kotsay, Johnny Damon, Curtis Granderson and even Ryan Klesko all peaked as four-plus win players, and each strongly resembled Kepler while in Double-A. Even if you feel those comps are a bit lofty, Ben Grieve, Frank Catalanotto and Jeff Conine were all above-average hitters, who might represent more realistic futures for Mr. Kepler.

 

Will be fun to watch next year!

[bluechipper]

After reading those comps, doesn't Damon seem like a good comp (as near best case scenario)?

[Seth Stohs]

That's fun to read. Votto's career would be great, but if he has anything near the career of the rest of those guys mentioned and we'll be pretty happy!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Doug Mientkiewicz was also on the comparable list.

[Linus]

Doug Mientkiewicz was also on the comparable list.

Ouch. I do think he spends most of next year in Rochester.

[HitInAPinch]

That's a very nice jump in production.  Short-timer at Rochester?

[stringer bell]

 

 

That's a very nice jump in production.  Short-timer at Rochester?

As with almost every player, I think the timetable is fluid, depending on how he does, how the major league corner outfielders and first basemen do and injuries. If Kepler were to have a season resembling his AA year, I think he could force the issue. An injury to Mauer, Rosario, or another corner OF would probably give him a short-term recall. If the season in Chattanooga is any predictor, Kepler is exactly what the Twins need--a high OBP guy who hits lefty. The bonus is that he is pretty fast and could be moved to the top of the order and not clog up the bases.

[jorgenswest]

I would take a chance on Kepler and not re-sign Hunter. There is not any more space for further decline.

[stringer bell]

 

I would take a chance on Kepler and not re-sign Hunter. There is not any more space for further decline.

Depending on the metrics, Hunter or Suzuki have been the Twins' worst regular player. Hunter's OPS+ is 91 and his WAR is -.5. Zuke has an OPS+ of 70, but a positive WAR. I think Arcia gets a last chance next year, but Kepler will be waiting in the wings

[DocBauer]

You know, it's always hard to project these guys. And as Seth stated, a Votto clone would be awesome. But most of the guys on that list are very good players as well.

 

Call me an optimist if you like...(I've been called worse things)...but I think what we saw this season is closer to the real Kepler than the previous seasons. He is still only 22. He is big, fast and athletic. He comes from an athletic family. He hasn't set the world on fire until this season, but has shown flashes despite being on the young side, quite young when signed, and came with a lot of rough edges playing ball overseas instead of here in the States. He has repeated a level only once, that being Elizabethton. Meaning he has made steady progress each and every season up until his breakout year this season.

 

All that together,  Votto level or not, big "K" on his chest or not,  I'd say he will be somewhere in that upper stratosphere.

 

 

[ashbury]

I've been a big Kepler proponent for a while now. This 2015 season, though, looks as if it will stand out as an outlier when some more seasons are in the books. He's benefitted from a somewhat high BABIP that could be unsustainable.

 

Let's not put too much pressure on him, and be ready even for a slow start in Rochester, at which point more fickle analysts will call into question his readiness and ability after all. A mid-season callup in 2016 will be soon enough. Aggregate AAA stats won't matter, only his current readiness in the eyes of the coaches.

 

Only an emergency should place him on the MLB roster to start the season IMO - that or an absolute monster spring on his part of course.

[jokin]

 

I've been a big Kepler proponent for a while now. This 2015 season, though, looks as if it will stand out as an outlier when some more seasons are in the books. He's benefitted from a somewhat high BABIP that could be unsustainable.

 

Let's not put too much pressure on him, and be ready even for a slow start in Rochester, at which point more fickle analysts will call into question his readiness and ability after all. A mid-season callup in 2016 will be soon enough. Aggregate AAA stats won't matter, only his current readiness in the eyes of the coaches.

 

Only an emergency should place him on the MLB roster to start the season IMO - that or an absolute monster spring on his part of course.

 

At this point, haven't we all learned to be very wary of overvaluing "absolute monster springs"?  A mid-season call-up, at the earliest, is a pretty reasonable hope and expectation.  As of right now, the only way Max is going to get a legit early look is if Plouffe is dealt and Torii retires.- and that Kepler has a strong ST. Even then, he would likely still be behind Mauer, Rosario, Hicks  Buxton,a Vet OF, and possibly Arcia and Vargas, on the depth chart  And Ryan's nature suggests it extremely unlikely that he would count on Kepler to start out the season and expected to carry the combined weight of what was lost by dumping the veterans.

[ashbury]

At this point, haven't we all learned to be very wary of overvaluing "absolute monster springs"? 

No. Unanimity is pretty rare.

[HitInAPinch]

 

As with almost every player, I think the timetable is fluid, depending on how he does, how the major league corner outfielders and first basemen do and injuries. If Kepler were to have a season resembling his AA year, I think he could force the issue. An injury to Mauer, Rosario, or another corner OF would probably give him a short-term recall. If the season in Chattanooga is any predictor, Kepler is exactly what the Twins need--a high OBP guy who hits lefty. The bonus is that he is pretty fast and could be moved to the top of the order and not clog up the bases.

 

Right, dead on with this.  The Twins lineup is really missing a couple guys with the potential to do this.  Not to say I don't like the progress that has been made this year, but the young, high OBP guy doesn't just isn't there yet.  I'll take the hitters like Rosario and Sano any day.  Without the Kepler-types in the future, there's gonna be a lot of solo HR's and other XBH's.

 

[stringer bell]

Of the Twins' current nine regulars, the only one with an OBP this year above 34% is Sano, who has essentially played half a season. To make the offense really go, they need more guys to get on base. Adding Kepler, a comeback from Mauer in OBP and one of Hicks or Dozier increasing their OBP would really, really (apologies to Roy Smalley!) make the offense go.

 

That young center fielder, what's his name, also could help the offense. Tall, fast, I think he wears #25.