Can Rosario significantly improve his on-base?

[Pius Jefferson]

For all the positive contribution he's had this year the on-base is horrible. I believe his o.b. is only .285. He's walked only 12 times this year. For the remainder of this season it may not be much of a problem but future years the number needs to get better. 

 

 

[Secondary User]

I have fears of Danny Santana 2.0

[Thegrin]

His Minor League totals are a .340 OBP .  I don't think we will need to worry about that.

 

[DaveW]

I have fears of Danny Santana 2.0

why? They are completely different players and Santana never sniffed the same minor league numbers Rosario did

[KGB]

Rosario will be fine, he'll mature and be more patient at the plate.  I think sometimes we get too worried about getting walks, Hick walked 16% of his AB last year and it's now down to 7%.  Which Hicks would you want batting for you, the 2014 version or the 2015 version?  Being aggressive and productive as a 23 year old, isn't all that bad.

[Major League Ready]

 

His Minor League totals are a .340 OBP .  I don't think we will need to worry about that.

I think you are right.  I am a big fan but I am still just a little concerned.  You can see that the scouting reports are in and his average and extra base hits are going to continue to fall until he adapts.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Rosario is a victim to the sophomore slump like Santana was, though I suspect it won't be as severe given that he's a much better overall player.  He's not a walk machine, but he has shown the ability to get them.  Of course as long as pitchers throw him hittable pitches, he's going to hit them.  In that aspect, I'm not terribly concerned.  Pitchers will change their approach to him at some point, when that happens, he's likely going to need to be more selective. 

[Mike Sixel]

Is the sophomore slump real? Santana didn't have a sophomore slump, he was never that great in the minors, and he was lucky last year. It wasn't a slump, or corrections, or anything other than returning to his real talent level, and a tanking of his luck.

 

I think Rosario can improve on his pitch recognition, I don't know if he will, but I think he can.

[TheLeviathan]

Rosario is never going to be a walks machine, he just needs some improvement.  He's already a very positive contributor just with his current production and defense.

[Turd Furgeson]

Rosario can really hit and the danger with guys like that sometimes is they often will swing at anything that's close to them because they know they can put it in play.  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-home-run-that-must-be-discussed/ 

 

He really struggles on the breaking pitches inside from what I've seen. Plate discipline is a thing that can be learned to some extent, and he doesn't need to walk a ton to still have a strong positive value to the team. 

[kab21]

 

Is the sophomore slump real? Santana didn't have a sophomore slump, he was never that great in the minors, and he was lucky last year. It wasn't a slump, or corrections, or anything other than returning to his real talent level, and a tanking of his luck.

 

I think Rosario can improve on his pitch recognition, I don't know if he will, but I think he can.

Santana is precisely the definition of sophomore slump.  The term was unknowingly created by people to describe players that significantly exceeded their expectations or had poor advanced stats (before advanced stats were cool).  In the truest sense though sophomore slump doesn't exist though.  Some players exceed expectations as rookies while others bomb their rookie seasons.  It shouldn't be a surprise that these perform closer to their expectations the following season.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Rosario struggles next year.  Perhaps he can continue to have this poor plate discipline (like Adam Jones) but pitchers will adjust and he might not.

[dgwills]

I would say Rosario is the best pure hitter of all our prospects. If off the field problems don't get in the way he will figure it out. 

[darin617]

It is too early to tell. Hope he can develop some patience at the plate and increase his OBP. I don't think you can use any minor league stats to get any idea how he will develop. Young pitchers most likely think they have the stuff to blow hitters away so you will have to wait and see.

[Secondary User]

why? They are completely different players and Santana never sniffed the same minor league numbers Rosario did

the plate discipline.

 

To clarify, I'm not assured of doom. His glove should still play, and there's depth options I like behind him, but K/BB ratios like that are disconcerting

[Pius Jefferson]

I think what's helping Rosario is he's had a good rookie season but not earth shattering. I can regression next year but he can certainly progress and become a better hitter. Santana was so above his expectations that a regression was expected just not this dramatically. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

His OBP will likely be tied to his avg, or more likely his BABIP. He will never walk much, but might have a fluke year or two of slightly more walks than usual for him. The Danny Santana comp is pretty fair, in the regards to the epically low bb%, high BABIP, with good hit tool. Rosario does have a better hit tool though, and better power. We kind of overvalue Rosario right now because he is young and new, but the guy likely won't improve much value-wise, unless he walks more. That don'ts mean he isn't good or valuable, but just that his OBP absolutely limits his value and future. 

[drjim]

His OBP will likely be tied to his avg, or more likely his BABIP. He will never walk much, but might have a fluke year or two of slightly more walks than usual for him. The Danny Santana comp is pretty fair, in the regards to the epically low bb%, high BABIP, with good hit tool. Rosario does have a better hit tool though, and better power. We kind of overvalue Rosario right now because he is young and new, but the guy likely won't improve much value-wise, unless he walks more. That don'ts mean he isn't good or valuable, but just that his OBP absolutely limits his value and future.

This is a really important point. Rosario is an acceptable player right now.

 

There isn't much in his profile to suggest he will take a significant step back but also not much to suggest he has significantly more upside unless he improves his bb rate and cuts the k rate. But a nice player to have, especially when he is pre arb.

[kab21]

I think you underrate the concern.  How is he going to adjust if pitchers don't ever throw him a strike?  Does he keep swinging?

 

In August and September he is hitting with a .663 and .533 OPS.  I don't know if that is due to pitchers adjusting and advance scouts finding Rosario's holes or not but the floor next season is a player that can't hack it as an MLB starter despite his solid showing this season.

[John Kelsey]

He just chases waaaay too many pitches out of the zone. I wouldn't mind if he wasn't taking walks because he was attacking strikes early in the count but he the guy swings at everything.