Nice Read on Kohl Stewart

[cmb0252]

He was 3 years under the average age last year in CR and is 3 years under the average age for FM. He will be 21 next year in AA with pretty good overall numbers outside of K/9 over his short minor league career. People are welcome to write him off, a lot already have, but I will just sit back and watch his development. Heck, some of you were already writing off Gordon because of his slow start. Tough crowd.

[markos]

 

A. He did that at a higher level, and B. he was doing that 29 years ago. To put that into perspective I'm expecting my first child in February and I wasn't even born in 1986. The game is completely different now, especially pitching. 

Yep.

 

Average AA K% in 1986: 14%

Maddux K% in 1986: 14%

 

Average A+ K% in 2015: 19%

Stewart K% in 2015: 13%

 

[Badsmerf]

Like Brock pointed out, we are all guessing at box scores. Being concerned about his K rate is legitimate. I'm not even sure if its about being raw. With all the arm injuries prevalent, the Twins said they were taking a different approach with Stewart. Focusing on FB placement and mechanics. Obviously, they forgot to mention they were turning him into a sinkerball pitcher (WTF!). However, I really don't think a 19 or 20 yo needs to rely on a slider to strike people out. His body is still developing, and minor league numbers don't mean ****.

 

I don't know his pitch selection percentages, but I'm just hoping they are focusing and other things right now. Again, he has only allowed 1 HR the entire year and has a great GB%. Yeah, 1 HR. 

[jimmer]

So, they took Kohl and created a pitch to contact, groundball pitcher.  Sweeeeeeeeet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't quite understand why his GO:AO ratio on the MiLB page is different from the game log, but looking at the game-by-game GO:AO ratios show how UN-normal Kohl Stewart is:

 

...

 

By my count, that is 161 GO and 57 AO, which is a 2.82 ratio (not 1.96 as indicated). I can't think of another Twins prospect with that dominant of GB tendency.

GO:AO on the stats page is not the same as "Groundouts-flyouts" in the box score.  The latter seems to omit foul pop outs, for one thing.  Not sure about line outs either.

 

In any case, all minor leaguers should have this same bias, so you can't adjust Stewart's numbers to compare to others.

[Sweetwater]

Raw guys can still strike out batters. Stewart isn't just raw, he's just not very good. He's really athletic and threw hard in high school, but it's not working out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm really glad so many people have so many answers about a pitcher they've never seen pitch.

 

I'm as concerned about Stewart as anyone but until we actually find out some real information about his current status (fastball velocity, pitch selection), we're just shouting in the dark.

[Seth Stohs]

 

"Ground ball machine"

 

Ugh.

 

 

This is never a bad thing...

[TRex]

 

GO:AO on the stats page is not the same as "Groundouts-flyouts" in the box score.  The latter seems to omit foul pop outs, for one thing.  Not sure about line outs either.

 

In any case, all minor leaguers should have this same bias, so you can't adjust Stewart's numbers to compare to others.

While not a scientific measure by any standard, I have been faithfully looking at every Twins ML box score for ~10 years (as I imagine many others here have). I personally do not have a bias against GB pitchers and, in fact, I think it is a very important predictor of MLB success. I guess actually my belief is that ML flyball pitchers (i.e. GB:FB of <0.8) are less likely to have future MLB success.

 

Therefore, the GB:FB ratio in the box score is something that I look at all the time. In my mind, Kohl Stewart's ratio over his entire ML career is an extreme outlier (in relation to other ML Twins players, anyway). Whether that portends future success I do not know. However, as with college lefties that destroy high-A ball, it seems prudent to at least wait until we see how he does at AA to crown him a bust.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Tweets had him topping out at 95 yesterday.

Tweets by whom? A Twins employee, or a neutral third-party? Makes all the difference when velocity is at issue.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I'm really glad so many people have so many answers about a pitcher they've never seen pitch.

 

I'm as concerned about Stewart as anyone but until we actually find out some real information about his current status (fastball velocity, pitch selection), we're just shouting in the dark.

I completely agree. I'm just really frustrated by the continued conflicting information about whether or not he is in fact shelving his slider and/or other breaking balls. We continue to hear conflicting things over and over again. The problem isn't that we don't have information, but rather that we don't know which the "real information" is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I completely agree. I'm just really frustrated by the continued conflicting information about whether or not he is in fact shelving his slider and/or other breaking balls. We continue to hear conflicting things over and over again. The problem isn't that we don't have information, but rather that we don't know which the "real information" is.

Agreed. I find it a little surprising that so little is being said about a former first round pick and none of the big players have weighed in with a piece about Stewart. I really want to see someone break down his current situation and why he's not missing bats.

[markos]

 

I'm really glad so many people have so many answers about a pitcher they've never seen pitch.

 

I'm as concerned about Stewart as anyone but until we actually find out some real information about his current status (fastball velocity, pitch selection), we're just shouting in the dark.

It is more than shouting in the dark. Every single person who has created a minor league projection system has recognized that either the most or second-most important factor for predicting a pitcher's future success is strikeout rate (the other being age-relative-to-level). And all the projection systems that I could find are in agreement that Stewart is going to be below-average at best, and career minor leaguer at worst. This isn't just a random opinion based on zero evidence. This is a comparison to the hundreds and hundreds of other HS pitchers who have worked their way through the minors.

 

On my own, I've looked back at the 40-odd HS pitchers taken in the first round of the draft in the past 15 years. Exactly one (Chris Volstad) made it to the majors and had any semblance of success with a strikeout percentage in the low minors under 20%. And Volstad was barely above replacement level. Stewart's K% is currently at ~15%. 

 

Maybe Stewart is completely unique, and all of the historical trends are completely wrong with him. Or maybe the Twins development program for him is radically different than every other team in the league. Player development is certainly random, especially with pitchers, so it isn't like there is zero chance that he becomes an Ace or even an above-average pitcher. But I would feel a lot better if there was ANY historical precedent of a pitcher like Stewart turning into something better than a back-end starter or bullpen arm.

[Shane Wahl]

Pitch to contact does not = groundball machine. Pitch to contact = giving up all kinds of contact

 

I am very concerned about Stewart, since I think the lack of strikeouts is a glaring problem. I think they need to probably stop what they are doing very soon and let it fly with him, hopefully with a more complete package overall in terms of his pitches. I don't think AA out of the gates in 2016 is going to be a good idea.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is more than shouting in the dark. Every single person who has created a minor league projection system has recognized that either the most or second-most important factor for predicting a pitcher's future success is strikeout rate (the other being age-relative-to-level). And all the projection systems that I could find are in agreement that Stewart is going to be below-average at best, and career minor leaguer at worst. This isn't just a random opinion based on zero evidence. This is a comparison to the hundreds and hundreds of other HS pitchers who have worked their way through the minors.

 

On my own, I've looked back at the 40-odd HS pitchers taken in the first round of the draft in the past 15 years. Exactly one (Chris Volstad) made it to the majors and had any semblance of success with a strikeout percentage in the low minors under 20%. And Volstad was barely above replacement level. Stewart's K% is currently at ~15%. 

 

Maybe Stewart is completely unique, and all of the historical trends are completely wrong with him. Or maybe the Twins development program for him is radically different than every other team in the league. Player development is certainly random, especially with pitchers, so it isn't like there is zero chance that he becomes an Ace or even an above-average pitcher. But I would feel a lot better if there was ANY historical precedent of a pitcher like Stewart turning into something better than a back-end starter or bullpen arm.

I understand and agree with most of this post, which is why I'm concerned about Stewart.

 

But, again, until we know his development status, it's a lot of conjecture. Stats are important but only if they tell something resembling a complete picture... We simply do not know if that's the case with Stewart.

 

If he's not throwing his slider but the Twins intend to have him return to throwing the pitch, the stats are somewhat irrelevant.

 

If he's throwing the slider but isn't missing bats, that's a huge problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If he's not throwing his slider but the Twins intend to have him return to throwing the pitch, the stats are somewhat irrelevant.

We're 2.5 seasons into his pro career, through high-A ball.  If they've really shelved a good pitch for that long, that might be without historical precedent too.

[Badsmerf]

We're 2.5 seasons into his pro career, through high-A ball. If they've really shelved a good pitch for that long, that might be without historical precedent too.

It is. When the plan for Stewart was announced about not allowing him to throw the slider much I was a huge advocate. I'm still a huge advocate. Fastball command is more important than anything else. Plus, sliders are hard on young men's arms. Letting him develop physically before pounding sliders seems like a great idea to me.

 

Again, this is all assuming they are restricting the amount of sliders thrown. This was confirmed last season early, but not much has been divulged this season about it. Other than the vague "we're not weird about kohl Stewart."

[Otto von Ballpark]

Protecting young arms is all fine and well, but I think you are dramatically under-rating the necessity of actually using and developing the slider pitch, even at ages 19-20 in the lower minors.  If Stewart can't really work on his slider until he's 21 in AA, that's probably going to be a strike against him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We're 2.5 seasons into his pro career, through high-A ball.  If they've really shelved a good pitch for that long, that might be without historical precedent too.

Agreed. This entire situation is bizarre and more than a little inexplicable, which is the reason why I require more information to draw a conclusion.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Is it an issue of shelving it completely or just using it a lot less?  I could definitely see the focus on command, if for no other reason than to get more 2 strike counts, but if contact is always on the ground, that's not a bad thing.  He doesn't need the slider that much.  I'd think though that he'd be going deeper into games with that scenario... who knows.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When the plan for Stewart was announced about not allowing him to throw the slider much I was a huge advocate.

 

Was it ever officially confirmed that the Twins actually severely restricted his slider usage in 2014?  I mean, it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they monitored and controlled it, but it's a fairly big jump from that to shaving 50% or more from what his K rate should be with some use of a dominant breaking pitch at his level.

 

I can't find any real reference to it.  Mostly just speculation after the season, like this from his 2015 adopt-a-prospect thread:

 

 

There was some anecdotal speculation that the Twins—in the interest of developing his command and other pitches—did not allow Kohl to use his plus slider as much as he would’ve otherwise.If true, this may help explain why he recorded fewer strikeouts than expected.

 

Another reference from January said "Stewart said last weekend at TwinsFest that his goal is to find himself in Double-A by the end of the season."  Obviously the pitcher may have different goals than the team, but that doesn't sound like a guy who would be artificially lowering his K rate for a second straight season in A-ball:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minnesota-twins-rotation-bring-on-the-kids/

[Otto von Ballpark]

And below is another note at Fangraphs on Stewart, from this April.  No hint about holding back on breaking stuff from either Stewart or minor league pitching coordinator Eric Rasmussen:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-grichuks-barrel-kohl-stewarts-moxie-opening-day-arrives/

 

Kohl Stewart doesn’t lack confidence. Drafted fourth overall by the Twins out of a Houston high school two years ago, the 20-year-old looks in the mirror and sees a craftsman. Unlike most moundsmen his age, he considers pitchability a strong suit.
The right-hander’s repertoire includes two- and four-seam fastballs, a curveball, a slider and a changeup. According to minor league pitching coordinator Eric Rasmussen, his charge “uses all of his pitches and his offspeed is pretty advanced for a young guy.”
Stewart considers his slider his best secondary pitch, followed by his changeup and his curveball. The ranking follows a predictable order, as the slider was his out pitch in high school and he didn’t throw a curveball until after he signed.
The introduction of Uncle Charlie is somewhat curious, as many pitchers are limited to one breaking pitch in the early stages of their development. Youngsters who throw both a curveball and slider are frequently told to put one in their back pocket. The Twins opted to have him add rather than subtract.
“It depends on the guy, and whether those pitches are defined,” explained Rasmussen. “When they start bleeding into each other, which they usually do, you have to make a choice. Otherwise you end up having two crappy breaking balls that look the same. But if one is a slider and one is a curveball, which is the case with Kohl, then they’re OK.”
Rasmussen told me Stewart “has a pretty good idea of who he is,” and the youngster certainly isn’t backing away from the assessment. When I suggested it will take him time to go from thrower to pitcher, he took umbrage.
“I don’t know about that,” responded Stewart, who logged a 2.59 ERA in low-A last year. “I feel like I’m a pitcher. I’m still learning to use my stuff – that’s part of growing up and having a better picture — but I have a plan and know what I’m doing. I think know how to pitch.”

 

 

[COtwin]

I choose to believe he is focusing on GB and learning how to get efficient outs and at some point we will see the whole repertoire return and the K rate will go up.  In my mind a high K rate is useless if your pitch count is crazy high.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is it an issue of shelving it completely or just using it a lot less?  I could definitely see the focus on command, if for no other reason than to get more 2 strike counts, but if contact is always on the ground, that's not a bad thing.  He doesn't need the slider that much.  I'd think though that he'd be going deeper into games with that scenario... who knows.

The 2014 argument, that he was still pitching well allegedly without the slider, was intriguing.  I can't imagine it really applies to his 2015 season so far.

 

He's still young, but his ERA is league average, and if you include unearned runs he's notably worse than league average.  He's notably worse than his team average in the same marks.  His H/9 and BB/9 are also worse than league average.  So it's not just K rate anymore, and it's beyond what a good ground ball rate can mask at that level.  And just because he's 20 (almost 21), with his pedigree he should not struggle *that* much against the 23-24-25 year olds who are still toiling in A-ball.

 

Not saying that he's bad or a bust, of course, but lowered expectations for him at this point seems to be a rational response (and doesn't mean writing him off).

[drjim]

 

The 2014 argument, that he was still pitching well allegedly without the slider, was intriguing.  I can't imagine it really applies to his 2015 season so far.

 

He's still young, but his ERA is league average, and if you include unearned runs he's notably worse than league average.  He's notably worse than his team average in the same marks.  His H/9 and BB/9 are also worse than league average.  So it's not just K rate anymore, and it's beyond what a good ground ball rate can mask at that level.  And just because he's 20 (almost 21), with his pedigree he should not struggle *that* much against the 23-24-25 year olds who are still toiling in A-ball.

 

Not saying that he's bad or a bust, of course, but lowered expectations for him at this point seems to be a rational response (and doesn't mean writing him off).

 

i would be curious if anyone hasn't lowered their expectations about him. To me the debate is more on the lines of whether he can be anything better than a 4-5 starter.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

This is just more speculation (sorry) but remember that Kohl hit the DL early in the season with elbow inflammation.  IF he has dialed back his slider usage again this season, that may very well be the reason.  But, like every one else, I have no idea what he's throwing or not throwing. Or why.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

i would be curious if anyone hasn't lowered their expectations about him. To me the debate is more on the lines of whether he can be anything better than a 4-5 starter.

You may be right.  It's hard to gauge with terms like "bust" and "write him off".  Obviously no one HAS to write him off for a couple years unless they can sell him high in trade, and if he actually makes it as a 4-5 starter for awhile, he probably won't be bust either.

[Guest]

 

Was it ever officially confirmed that the Twins actually severely restricted his slider usage in 2014?  I mean, it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they monitored and controlled it, but it's a fairly big jump from that to shaving 50% or more from what his K rate should be with some use of a dominant breaking pitch at his level.

 

I can't find any real reference to it.  Mostly just speculation after the season, like this from his 2015 adopt-a-prospect thread:

 

 

Another reference from January said "Stewart said last weekend at TwinsFest that his goal is to find himself in Double-A by the end of the season."  Obviously the pitcher may have different goals than the team, but that doesn't sound like a guy who would be artificially lowering his K rate for a second straight season in A-ball:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minnesota-twins-rotation-bring-on-the-kids/

 

I'm not sure what you're looking for by way of "official" confirmation, but I can tell you Stewart did not throw his slider initially last year in CR. Over time, he mixed in a few during the season. I was told, not for attribution, by a source who was in a position to know that the Twins had instructed him to shelve the slider for a while and work on his fastball command.

 

In an interview with Kohl himself, that was posted here on TD last year, he discussed his plan for the season and how it was focused on fastball command (keeping it down, as opposed to just trying to blow it by hitters the way he could get by with in high school) and developing his change up. He never mentioned his slider once in the interview.

 

I saw a lot of his starts last year and I don't recall seeing his slider appear until sometime near mid-season. He seemed to be trying to throw a curve ball and he certainly used his change.

 

Obviously, I can't speak to what he's been doing this season for Fort Myers since I haven't seen him pitch, but that's my 2 cents concerning 2014.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not sure what you're looking for by way of "official" confirmation, but I can tell you Stewart did not throw his slider initially last year in CR. Over time, he mixed in a few during the season. I was told, not for attribution, by a source who was in a position to know that the Twins had instructed him to shelve the slider for a while and work on his fastball command.

 

In an interview with Kohl himself, that was posted here on TD last year, he discussed his plan for the season and how it was focused on fastball command (keeping it down, as opposed to just trying to blow it by hitters the way he could get by with in high school) and developing his change up. He never mentioned his slider once in the interview.

 

I saw a lot of his starts last year and I don't recall seeing his slider appear until sometime near mid-season. He seemed to be trying to throw a curve ball and he certainly used his change.

 

Obviously, I can't speak to what he's been doing this season for Fort Myers since I haven't seen him pitch, but that's my 2 cents concerning 2014.

I was hoping you'd chime in, thanks.

 

I just checked last year's splits and his K/9 between the first and second half of the season were basically identical... But he only pitched 28 innings in the second half.

 

That's... troublesome.

[drjim]

 

I was hoping you'd chime in, thanks.

 

I just checked last year's splits and his K/9 between the first and second half of the season were basically identical... But he only pitched 28 innings in the second half.

 

That's... troublesome.

 

True, but he was also hurt towards the end of the year so not a huge surprise.

 

Small sample size and all, and nothing huge by any means, but his k rate has been creeping up this year since the end of June (while his gb rate has been dropping).