Nice Read on Kohl Stewart

[nicksaviking]

 

I probably wouldn't believe it.  Even elite pitchers actually need to develop their breaking stuff, you can't just shelve something you expect to be a wipeout pitch for multiple years/levels.

 

If they are emphasizing the slider less with Stewart, it's almost certainly because it's not a wipeout quality pitch and they don't think it's his ticket to the big leagues anyway.  Any minor limiting/controlling of the pitch for injury concerns probably wouldn't affect his stats that much (or would be dwarfed by the effects of inning/pitch counts).

 

I agree, and I'm disappointed. 

 

I just don't think one side of a debate (a side I happen to be on) can be taken seriously if we substitute unverifiable assumptions for facts. Not that you were; I was basically just playing Devil's Advocate.

 

Or maybe I just really, really want to be proven wrong on this one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's not the case anymore as a result of a strong second half of the season:

 

FSL Avg. ERA (3.21)

Kohl's ERA (3.21)

Kohl's ERA last 10 starts (2.53)*

 

*This figure includes a career-worst game where he gave up 7 earned runs--in the other 9 games his ERA (1.69)

Thanks. I remember his ERA was close to average, but he also gave up more unearned runs than the average pitcher too, so his RA was worse.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

To add to what you said, he has the 21st best ERA in A+ with only one person ahead of him being younger.

"In A+" is slightly misleading because Stewart is in the best pitcher's league of the 3 A+ leagues.  The FSL has a league ERA of 3.21, while the other two A+ leagues are at 3.57 and 4.22.  (Sadly I don't have a good source for minor league ERA+)

 

He's also only 21st among *ERA title qualifiers* at that level (1 IP per team game), which is not a great way to gauge minor league performance.  Gonsalves and Hu both have notably better ERAs, but neither "qualifies" because they also have innings at other levels.  (And off the top of my head, Giolito and Alex Reyes are a couple high-profile guys who don't "qualify" for your list because they were already promoted to AA midseason.)

 

And even with these limitations of your list, there are 3 more guys ahead of him who are just 1-5 months older, which isn't really a meaningful age difference among prospects.

 

His 2015 performance hasn't been bad or disastrous, but it's hard to spin it as a positive at this point.  At some point "holding his own" needs to make way for actual sustainable success separating him from the pack, just to hit that back-end MLB rotation target.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks. I remember his ERA was close to average, but he also gave up more unearned runs than the average pitcher too, so his RA was worse.

Following up on this, Stewart's RA per 9 (so, ERA including unearned runs) is 4.13, versus 3.83 for the whole FSL.