So what's next?

[Platoon]

So what's next?

 

We are tied with Toronto. Toronto is tied with us. We are depressed because we are tied with Toronto. Toronto is excited because they are tied with us. How does this seemingly identical place in the standings generate such a disparate range of emotions.

 

It likely has to do with momentum, and expectations. We expected to be bad, and got good, and regressed to not so good. Our momentum is downhill. They expected to be good, got bad, and got back to better. Their momentum is uphill (the preceding statement proves I did not pay attention in physics class)

 

This was also reflected in the recent trade deadline dealings. Toronto went all in, we went all, less than mediocre. Are we stupid? Are they smart? Or, because these two teams are at very different stages of their current existence, are we both kinda correct in how this was approached.

 

Baseball teams have life cycles. The current Twins team is in what amounts to year one of what is likely about a 6 year cycle. In essence, it's infancy. It learning to walk, talk, and become a productive member of the American League. But it's not there yet. Some of its parts are in the minors, some to be brought up here, some to be traded for missing parts. But the parts appear to be there. We don't need rental parts, as they likely won't get us anywhere this year, but will cost us in the future.

 

I am not going to defend Ryan, or call for his head on a platter. He never was trader Jack in the first place, and that might have served him well this year. I like many think he likes his veterans too much, and is too slow to react to things that need correcting. I do think he knows a baseball player when he sees one. But I also think he lets his "attachment" to some veterans get in the way of making a change he likely knows needs doing. With his apparent job security, that seems to be a glaring fault.

 

IMHO, this team is a year away. Chasing a playoff spot by mortgaging part of the future would have been a huge mistake. Let the Rosario's, and Sanos, Hicks's, Buxtons, and more get their feet wet. Don't expect a Sano to carry you. It's not his job. Work in some more as you get into September call ups, and have a plan in winter to turn a few assets into things you don't have. A catcher, a good defensive SS, and if you don't think some of the young arms are going to pan out in time, a solid 8th inning guy. And clean the dregs off the 40 man. This does not necessarily mean you have to deal prospects, veterans should not be immune. Something has to be done about the corner infield "mess", and if Hunter is inevitably resigned, please make it understood he is a bench, PH, and DH type.

 

The current bunch of veterans on this team have never had a go to guy. There is no Puckett, Killebrew, Iggy, Jack Morris, Puljos, etc. Some decent players, some with good numbers, but not the guy to carry you on his back. You don't win games with smoke machines in a clubhouse, you win them on the field with talent. And attitude. The Twins have some talent coming up, and some of it seems to have a little attitude. Attitude has never been a Twins trademark. Either intentionally, or seemingly, we tend to field teams of a vanilla nature. Hopefully some of the new players, shall we say exuberance, will not only be tolerated, it will be encouraged.

 

As for Molitor, my jury is still out. He has been hamstrung by a crappy bullpen, but has also not handled the May thing well. Since his offense is so putrid, it's really hard to say if bunting is truly something he believes in, or is he desperate to score a run on occasion? There is nothing he can do about his catcher, and he seems to understand that putting pressure on his SS candidates is not ideal. His shifting is far more aggressive than the previous managers, and seems to be a plus. He has not solved the 3 hole in the batting order mystery, but frankly there seems no obvious, or for that matter logical solution this year.

 

If the year plays out with them missing the playoffs, but getting a foundation in place for next year, I am fine with that. I feel that is where their focus should be. It's where it likely was in the beginning of the year, and I don't think that, what was in my opinion a fluky month of May, should change that plan.

[Reider]

I don't know what's next for sure, but based on the way the Twins have been playing since the all-star break, the Twins will be losing their wild card spot to the Jays real soon (if not tomorrow, then by the end of this 4 game set).

 

Aside from a few players, they just don't look like the same team anymore. e.g. Pitchers have been throwing meatballs on 3-0 counts, Perkins has done next to nothing since the all-star break, hitters are swinging at balls out of the strike zone. There are 2 or 3 guys in the bullpen that just don't belong at the MLB level etc.

 

It's not all that bad. I was expecting the Twins to be in or near the basement again this year, so to see them play meaningful games in August, is great. They just need to get back to playing fundamental baseball. They need to make smart decisions on the mound and at the plate. Hopefully this is just a slump that they will eventually bounce out of before it's too late instead of a sign of things to come for the rest of the season.

 

As a side note, in the game against the Blue Jays today, it looked like Nunez was safe at first base, when they showed the replay. However, Molitor was told not to challenge the play by another coach on the phone. I really wish they would have challenged that play.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm guessing a whole lot of nothing is next.

 

No idea how people think he's fixing SS or C w/o a major trade......and if it is ok to do that in 2 months, why is not ok to do that now?

[brvama]

Excellent, well-balanced article, Platoon. I'm pretty much in the same camp as you.

[nicksaviking]

If this team is going to miss the playoffs, it would be best if it becomes clear to the casual fans quite quickly, because it's the casual fans that the club is most concerned with tuning in and going to the ballpark.  The sooner it's clear to the casual fan, the sooner the team can get back to rebuilding.

 

There is only two months left to get things right for next year and the way I see it, the two biggest problems, don't actually look like problems at this point: starting pitching and the outfield.

 

The starting pitching has been fine, unfortunatey it's still not good enough to compete and there are too many veterans in the way of any kind of youngster that might develop into the kind of starter this team needs.  These guys need to give way to May, Berrios, Duffy or whoever else may have a shot at being a solid contributor.  If we have eyes on 2016, do we really want to spend the first two months trying to figure it out then? Can't keep kicking the can down the road, do it now and get it over with.

 

The outfield has also been very nice, however as we know there are more options than there are spots.  If Hunter wants to play again next year (because the team is getting better and he wants to go to the post season again) will Ryan say no? How are we going to know if Arcia can contribute when his last option year runs out in two months?  Will Sano, Plouffe, Pinto or Mauer need to learn to play RF or at least be competent at another position?  Again, do we want to waste the beginning of 2016 to figure this stuff out?

 

Catcher, SS, the bullpen? Those are easier off season fixes as these are clear needs and due to the performance of the incumbants, replacements are justifiable.  The Twins can and likely will address these areas in free agency or trades; whether they do it well is another arguement.  However, this team has always had problems managing it's current assets and there are a lot of veterans that need to be dealt with and youngsters that need playing time.  This is something the team has always struggled with, but better to do it now than wait until next year.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, Nick, but that has not been their MO the last couple years. I don't understand it, but it is what it is.

[HitInAPinch]

It's over.  It's over.  It's soooo over....

[Loosey]

 

If this team is going to miss the playoffs, it would be best if it becomes clear to the casual fans quite quickly, because it's the casual fans that the club is most concerned with tuning in and going to the ballpark.  The sooner it's clear to the casual fan, the sooner the team can get back to rebuilding.

I agree.  If anything this season we have seen glimpses of the future might hold.  I for one am excited and tried really hard not to get my hopes up for this season, and finally let my guard down at the All-Star break thinking, they just might hold on and make the playoffs.  Oops!

 

That being said, the rest of this year should be about rebuilding and reloading.  I think some waiver trades need to be made to shore up weaknesses.  I would love to see Polanco get an extended look at SS the next 2 months since he is the only real option I can see for next year unless a blockbuster trade is made. 

 

Since they are giving up on the season, I say move May back to the rotation after Duffey's start and leave Duffey in the pen.  Robinson seems to be a nice guy, and I feel sorry for his personal life situation with his daughter, but it might be time the Twins move out.  I'm not sure if he has options, but if he doesn't I'm sure he can pass through waivers and go to Rochester.  That way he is much closer to his family and still receives his paycheck and benefits.  Bring Arcia up and see if being back in the majors re-motivates him.  When Buxton comes up it might be a good move to move Rosario back to AAA for the time being to work on his patience.  In addition Berrios to the ML pen for Boyer would kill two birds with one stone as well.

 

The roster would look a lot different but it would be for a reason, and I think the fans who really follow the team would understand and like these moves.  The team this year has been almost directionless, as if winning caught them off guard and delayed they rebuild and development of players.

 

These moves would set them up nicely to be able to make logical September call-ups as well.  Kepler, ABW, Pinto come to mind as do handful of pitchers.  Just my thoughts.

[kielty4life]

I don't remember the last time this team finished strong.  Maybe I do - there was a short 2 or 3 year stretch where Gardy's teams had some nice Septembers to get them into the playoffs.  But assuming this is gonna be another one of those years where we stumble to the finish, that has to be about 8 years in a row we've struggled down the stretch.  Even in 2010, which was a playoff year, I seem to remember struggles in late September.  It's barely August and it already feels like we're playing out the string.  I'm not sure what it is with this organization that they can't finish out a season.

[Loosey]

 

I don't remember the last time this team finished strong.  Maybe I do - there was a short 2 or 3 year stretch where Gardy's teams had some nice Septembers to get them into the playoffs.  But assuming this is gonna be another one of those years where we stumble to the finish, that has to be about 8 years in a row we've struggled down the stretch.  Even in 2010, which was a playoff year, I seem to remember struggles in late September.  It's barely August and it already feels like we're playing out the string.  I'm not sure what it is with this organization that they can't finish out a season.

2006, 2008 and 2009.  2006 was the year they had to basically win every game from June on and Morneau and Mauer led them with MVP caliber seasons.  2008 was the year they lost in the one game playoff to Chicago.  2009 was the season when Morneau hurt his back and the team jumped on Cuddyer's and were absolutely on fire in September and went on to win the one game wildcard.

 

So basically they have sucked down the stretch in the seasons where they have sucked all year.

[Platoon]

I'm guessing a whole lot of nothing is next.

 

No idea how people think he's fixing SS or C w/o a major trade......and if it is ok to do that in 2 months, why is not ok to do that now?

Waivers have to be cleared, if you are going outside the orginisation. That virtually precludes bigger deals. And before the waiver period, lot of players tossed around are older rental types.

[Jham]

 

If this team is going to miss the playoffs, it would be best if it becomes clear to the casual fans quite quickly, because it's the casual fans that the club is most concerned with tuning in and going to the ballpark.  The sooner it's clear to the casual fan, the sooner the team can get back to rebuilding.

 

There is only two months left to get things right for next year and the way I see it, the two biggest problems, don't actually look like problems at this point: starting pitching and the outfield.

 

The starting pitching has been fine, unfortunatey it's still not good enough to compete and there are too many veterans in the way of any kind of youngster that might develop into the kind of starter this team needs.  These guys need to give way to May, Berrios, Duffy or whoever else may have a shot at being a solid contributor.  If we have eyes on 2016, do we really want to spend the first two months trying to figure it out then? Can't keep kicking the can down the road, do it now and get it over with.

 

The outfield has also been very nice, however as we know there are more options than there are spots.  If Hunter wants to play again next year (because the team is getting better and he wants to go to the post season again) will Ryan say no? How are we going to know if Arcia can contribute when his last option year runs out in two months?  Will Sano, Plouffe, Pinto or Mauer need to learn to play RF or at least be competent at another position?  Again, do we want to waste the beginning of 2016 to figure this stuff out?

 

Catcher, SS, the bullpen? Those are easier off season fixes as these are clear needs and due to the performance of the incumbants, replacements are justifiable.  The Twins can and likely will address these areas in free agency or trades; whether they do it well is another arguement.  However, this team has always had problems managing it's current assets and there are a lot of veterans that need to be dealt with and youngsters that need playing time.  This is something the team has always struggled with, but better to do it now than wait until next year.

 

Ummm...  Jack Morris talked about how Tom Kelly said you needed to see a player for 3 years before you could really know what type of player you had.  Danny Santana, Arcia, and Vargas all had big years/ half years last year.  Look at what they did this year.  Hicks, Sano, and Rosario all basically had lost seasons last year.  So the premise of bringing up Parmalee and Hermann....  I mean Polanco and Swim or whoever... just to "see what we've got" doesn't do much for me unless you're hoping to build a contender in 3 years, or trade guys off if they come up and succeed in the short term.  A good September against expanded rosters offers very little in the way of evaluation IMO.  Given the steps we've taken this year along with the current construction of our pitching staff, we had better be looking to compete next year!  

 

People complained about our FA signings the last few years.  IF we had played ourselves out of contention, there certainly would have been a market for Hunter, Hughes, Pelfrey, and Santana if we decided we wanted to sell.  IF we had played ourselves into contention, guys unlikely to help for the next few years should have been somewhat expendable.  As it were, we are sort of kind of contending for the fringe wild card spot a little bit.  Veteran/prospect limbo.  But organizational depth is great right now BECAUSE of the free agent signings.  Veterans have value.  

 

Re: Veteran pitchers making way for "possible contributors", why sit proven guys to experiment with guys who might only be "possible contributors"?  If we had a legit possible ace, that's one thing.  The guys you're suggesting we replace them with have projected ceilings about where our current staff is currently performing.  I was hammered in another thread for suggesting we use one of these projected starters to get Shields who would almost certainly be the best pitcher on our already decent staff.

 

Re: giving guys a look now instead of "wasting next spring", we pay our scouts for a reason.  They've been decent about telling us who is ready, and who isn't.  The guys they've been reluctant to suggest have typically struggled in the bigs despite great MiLB numbers.  The guys they've fast-tracked have generally done well, at least until the league adjusted.  So if your question is would I rather "waste" this year's August/September trying for a Wild Card spot we're currently tied for, vs. using 2 months to plan my roster for next season and possibly wasting next year because of a rash decision to go young, I'd much rather continue our current course.  
 

[Mike Sixel]

Now meant before the deadline, sorry. If it is cool to fix those positions this off season with trades, it should have been cool to do so last week.

[Platoon]

Now meant before the deadline, sorry. If it is cool to fix those positions this off season with trades, it should have been cool to do so last week.

I agree in theory, but I would imagine there will be more options on the table in the off season. Also, because I don't think that it was possible to fix all the holes before the deadline. And lastly, simply because this team is really not ready yet. It has no stud pitcher, no stud hitter, and no shutdown bullpen. In a 162 game schedule, when you win by exceeding expectations, expectations eventually win out. This year was a pleasant surprise, next year it should not be a surprise. IF, the FO sorts out the roster. If it doesn't, good players will sit in Rochester and Chattanooga, while mediocre veterans will fill out the the bench spots, and the bull pen. But for this to happen someone(s) has to go. Whether it's Arcia, Hicks, Plouffe, Milone, Suzuki, etc, there are going to be players that have to end up elsewhere.

[kielty4life]

 

2006, 2008 and 2009.  2006 was the year they had to basically win every game from June on and Morneau and Mauer led them with MVP caliber seasons.  2008 was the year they lost in the one game playoff to Chicago.  2009 was the season when Morneau hurt his back and the team jumped on Cuddyer's and were absolutely on fire in September and went on to win the one game wildcard.

 

So basically they have sucked down the stretch in the seasons where they have sucked all year.

Don't let the truth get in the way of a good story.

[Loosey]

 

Don't let the truth get in the way of a good story.

How so?  in 2006 on May 30th they were 23-28.  From May 31 on they were 73-38.  Winning 18 games in September to win the division by 1 game.

 

In 2008, I was mistaken.  They played awful in September and were 3 games under .500 to lose the division and the one game playoff to the Sox.

 

In 2009 on August 30 they were 65-65.  From August 31 on they were 21-11 or 22-11 if you count game 163.

 

in 2010 they were 17-10 in September, finishing out the season on an 18-12 run.

 

Outside of me including 2008 by mistake, how was that untruthful?  Outside of those years the past 5 have been bad teams the entire year.  It's not like they were playoff bound teams in 2011-2015 and imploded in September.

 

[kielty4life]

 

How so?  in 2006 on May 30th they were 23-28.  From May 31 on they were 73-38.  Winning 18 games in September to win the division by 1 game.

 

In 2008, I was mistaken.  They played awful in September and were 3 games under .500 to lose the division and the one game playoff to the Sox.

 

In 2009 on August 30 they were 65-65.  From August 31 on they were 21-11 or 22-11 if you count game 163.

 

in 2010 they were 17-10 in September, finishing out the season on an 18-12 run.

 

Outside of me including 2008 by mistake, how was that untruthful?  Outside of those years the past 5 have been bad teams the entire year.  It's not like they were playoff bound teams in 2011-2015 and imploded in September.

Well 2008 was the big one I had a problem with.  Additionally, there were a couple seasons in recent years where we actually played OK until the AS Game, only to completely collapse in the 2nd half (and I realize we were not contenders in those years).  I'm hoping our guys don't quit on Molitor.  It became a staple of the Gardy regime....a quitting team.  Good riddance.  I have some hope Molitor can keep things together in August and September.  Once a Gardy team ran into tough times, the entire thing folded.  And that had a lot to do with the manager.  That's a big reason why he was FINALLY put to rest.

[drjim]

 

I agree in theory, but I would imagine there will be more options on the table in the off season. Also, because I don't think that it was possible to fix all the holes before the deadline. And lastly, simply because this team is really not ready yet. It has no stud pitcher, no stud hitter, and no shutdown bullpen. In a 162 game schedule, when you win by exceeding expectations, expectations eventually win out. This year was a pleasant surprise, next year it should not be a surprise. IF, the FO sorts out the roster. If it doesn't, good players will sit in Rochester and Chattanooga, while mediocre veterans will fill out the the bench spots, and the bull pen. But for this to happen someone(s) has to go. Whether it's Arcia, Hicks, Plouffe, Milone, Suzuki, etc, there are going to be players that have to end up elsewhere.

 

Of course this is true. As crazy as the deadline was only 3 players better than Ben Revere were traded that had more than one year of control.

 

Gomez - not a position the Twins should spend resources for

Hamels - no trade clause to the Twins

Tulo - there has been some conversation on him

 

Despite the many comments to the contrary, fixing long term holes on a team just doesn't happen at the deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of course this is true. As crazy as the deadline was only 3 players better than Ben Revere were traded that had more than one year of control.

 

Gomez - not a position the Twins should spend resources for

Hamels - no trade clause to the Twins

Tulo - there has been some conversation on him

 

Despite the many comments to the contrary, fixing long term holes on a team just doesn't happen at the deadline.

 

When does it happen for this team? When does THIS GM trade prospects for players? Why are there this many holes in the first place, obvious holes that everyone saw at the beginning of the year?

[drjim]

 

When does it happen for this team? When does THIS GM trade prospects for players? Why are there this many holes in the first place, obvious holes that everyone saw at the beginning of the year?

 

We need to start calling you Mr. Questions.

[Mike Sixel]

I just want some answers.......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Of course this is true. As crazy as the deadline was only 3 players better than Ben Revere were traded that had more than one year of control.

 

Gomez - not a position the Twins should spend resources for

Hamels - no trade clause to the Twins

Tulo - there has been some conversation on him

 

Despite the many comments to the contrary, fixing long term holes on a team just doesn't happen at the deadline.

Only 3 players with control better than Revere?  Are you overrating Revere, or forgetting a lot of deadline trades?

 

Alex Wood, Jose Reyes, David Murphy, Brandon Moss, Mike Fiers, Sam Dyson, arguably Jepsen, Cishek, Broxton, Diekman, and maybe even DeJesus too... and it wasn't at the deadline but Welington Castillo has been traded twice this season already...

 

And who says they had to fix them long-term at the deadline?  It's not like a temporary patch like Pierzynski would have been cost prohibitive, or affected our ability to address the position again in the offseason...

[Shane Wahl]

Guys on 40-man who could be removed to make room for others ASAP:

 

Blaine Boyer

Logan Darnell

Brian Duensing

Casey Fien

Aaron Thompson

Jason Wheeler

Shane Robinson

 

Other players who should be removed via trade or otherwise in the offseason:

 

Trevor Plouffe

Eduardo Escobar

Mike Pelfrey

Kevin Jepsen

Eric Fryer or Chris Herrmann (but not both)

Eduardo Escobar or Danny Santana (but not both)

Josmil Pinto or Kennys Vargas (but not both)

 

That's 14 guys, not mentioning Suzuki and Arcia

 

Taylor Rogers, J.O. Berrios, Adam Walker, James Beresford, Levi Michael, Danny Ortiz, Brandon Peterson, and Lester Oliveros are guys that could be added.

 

I think the Blue Jays are clearly going in the right direction for this season and the Twins are clearly going in the wrong direction, and fast.

 

[Minniman]

In 2008, I was mistaken.They played awful in September and were 3 games under .500 to lose the division and the one game playoff to the Sox.

 

 

Imagine if they had kept Johan Santana in 2008, and what could those teams have been with David Ortiz in the lineup. Those two moves killed the Twins World Series chances.

[drjim]

 

Only 3 players with control better than Revere?  Are you overrating Revere, or forgetting a lot of deadline trades?

 

Alex Wood, Jose Reyes, David Murphy, Brandon Moss, Mike Fiers, Sam Dyson, arguably Jepsen, Cishek, Broxton, Diekman, and maybe even DeJesus too... and it wasn't at the deadline but Welington Castillo has been traded twice this season already...

 

And who says they had to fix them long-term at the deadline?  It's not like a temporary patch like Pierzynski would have been cost prohibitive, or affected our ability to address the position again in the offseason...

 

I thought it was obvious I was referring to position players since the post was about SS and C. Reyes might be a tick better but yuck on that contract. No chance I take the other guys you mentioned (other than Castillo).

 

I didn't consider Castillo, he would have been nice. I will take that one back.

[SwainZag]

 

Imagine if they had kept Johan Santana in 2008, and what could those teams have been with David Ortiz in the lineup. Those two moves killed the Twins World Series chances.

 

Ortiz had been gone for 6 years by 2008.  It was a bad move, but using 2008 is pushing it a tad with Ortiz.

[Minniman]

 

Ortiz had been gone for 6 years by 2008.  It was a bad move, but using 2008 is pushing it a tad with Ortiz.

 

I said "those teams" meaning the playoff teams over those years.

 

Wasn't Ortiz still productive in 2008?

 

[SwainZag]

 

I said "those teams" meaning the playoff teams over those years.

 

Wasn't Ortiz still productive in 2008?

 

My bad I mis-read and thought you meant just 08, but yes he was.

[USAFChief]

 

 

 

Wasn't Ortiz still productive in 2008?

Still couldn't sac bunt to save his life.

[Minniman]

 

Still couldn't sac bunt to save his life.

 

 

Yeah, the Twins would rather had him bunt than swing away.