a few random thoughts

[dxpavelka]

 

I think Dozier is doing all the convincing.......he's an awesome player right now. Is that even up for debate?

He LOOKS like an awesome player because he plays on a team that lacks options.  .251 hitters are only awesome if they have 23 home runs in the first week of June, not August.

[dxpavelka]

 

I think you are right because Dozier's is currently being marketed as the star of the team. He is a good player, but not a guy that a great team is built around. He is also at a position of flexibility (more so than 3rd base I'd argue).

I'm not trying to be rankle people with Dozier/Plouffe talk, but trying to think of options to make room for guys like Kepler.

I'd like to see room made for Kepler as well but it most likely won't be in the infield.  Intriguiging that he has more triples this year than home runs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He LOOKS like an awesome player because he plays on a team that lacks options.  .251 hitters are only awesome if they have 23 home runs in the first week of June, not August.

 

I really can't tell if you are serious or not.......

 

Dozier is 19th in WAR......in all of baseball.*

 

*among the non-pitchers.

[SwainZag]

 

He LOOKS like an awesome player because he plays on a team that lacks options.  .251 hitters are only awesome if they have 23 home runs in the first week of June, not August.

 

Judging a player by his batting average is very short sighted.  No player has 23 HR in the first week of June anymore, that is a pace to hit 55+.  Dozier is Top 3 in all of baseball for WAR for a 2B, has nearly twice the HR of any player playing the position.  His WAR is more than twice of the WAR of everyone's man crush Tulo...what's that say for "awesome players?"

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He LOOKS like an awesome player because he plays on a team that lacks options.  .251 hitters are only awesome if they have 23 home runs in the first week of June, not August.

http://i188.photobucket.com/albums/z85/Lions300/Gifs/nathan-fillion-well-nevermind1_zps1aab1c77.gif

[jimmer]

 

  His WAR is more than twice of the WAR of everyone's man crush Tulo...what's that say for "awesome players?"

About as short-sighted as basing talent level on one season of WAR

[jimmer]

 

I really can't tell if you are serious or not.......

 

Dozier is 19th in WAR......in all of baseball.*

 

*among the non-pitchers.

There are people who still put a lot of value in stats like BA.  I don't know why when there much better stats to rate a player, but there are some who will stick to the basics.

[spinowner]

 

About as short-sighted as basing talent level on one season of WAR

WAR doesn't measure talent level. It measures how well you have been playing.

[jimmer]

 

WAR doesn't measure talent level. It measures how well you have been playing.

You're nitpicking with semantics.  You and others know what I mean.  Comparing players by one year of WAR is not a good idea.  It does tell us what they have done this year, true, but the post I responded to made it seem like he was saying Dozier is a better player than Tulo and as much as I love Dozier, IMO that's not true. I doubt any supposed expert would say Dozier is and I imagine most Twins fans, who don't have homer goggles on, also wouldn't say that either. If Tulo comes back next year with a season like this and Dozier continues to rock, maybe that conversation changes, but I doubt that happens (but hope it does).

[SwainZag]

 

You're nitpicking with semantics.  You and others know what I mean.  Comparing players by one year of WAR is not a good idea.  It does tell us what they have done this year, true, but the post I responded to made it seem like he was saying Dozier is a better player than Tulo and as much as I love Dozier, IMO that's not true. I doubt any supposed expert would say Dozier is and I imagine most Twins fans, who don't have homer goggles on, also wouldn't say that either. If Tulo comes back next year with a season like this and Dozier continues to rock, maybe that conversation changes, but I doubt that happens (but hope it does).

 

Fine, I will use more than a 1 year sample. In a 3 year period Tulo has been worth exactly 1.0 WAR than Dozier.  The original poster said he doesn't think that Dozier is the type of player you build around.  He didn't say that Tulo was, but based upon his reputation, Tulo would seem to be one of those guys.  Based on a 3 year sample, their value has been fairly equal....and that's with Tulo playing half his games in Colorado.  Take it for what it's worth.

[Mike Sixel]

Dozier is awesome. So is Tulo. That's what is great......except for the part where one is not a Twin......

[jimmer]

 

Fine, I will use more than a 1 year sample. In a 3 year period Tulo has been worth exactly 1.0 WAR than Dozier.  The original poster said he doesn't think that Dozier is the type of player you build around.  He didn't say that Tulo was, but based upon his reputation, Tulo would seem to be one of those guys.  Based on a 3 year sample, their value has been fairly equal....and that's with Tulo playing half his games in Colorado.  Take it for what it's worth.

12.1 for Tulo, 10.8 for Dozier.  So close for sure.  I am not knocking Dozier. I love Dozier, but this year is way out of whack for how Tulo normally performs.  This year is definitely an outlier for him. Not normal for a guy to have a WAR over 5.0 two years in a row and below 2 the next. Also, it's not like Toronto is a pitcher's park either.  If you want to think Dozier is better, that's fine. 

[SwainZag]

 

12.1 for Tulo, 10.8 for Dozier.  So close for sure.  I am not knocking Dozier. I love Dozier, but this year is way out of whack for how Tulo normally performs.  This year is definitely an outlier for him. Not normal for a guy to have a WAR over 5.0 two years in a row and below 2 the next. Also, it's not like Toronto is a pitcher's park either.  If you want to think Dozier is better, that's fine. 

 

Oops I added wrong somewhere, good catch.  I think Tulo is a fantastic player I am not knocking him, I was more trying to show that Dozier is a pretty good player.  I only used Tulo in this specific case because of the attention he has gotten in the past 2-3 weeks.

 

Off topic and just on Tulo, but I will also add I am interested to watch his numbers going forward to see if that hip surgery he had last year has lasting effects.  His power and defense has slipped considerately this season, his first since the surgery.  

[70charger]

 

12.1 for Tulo, 10.8 for Dozier.  So close for sure.  I am not knocking Dozier. I love Dozier, but this year is way out of whack for how Tulo normally performs.  This year is definitely an outlier for him. Not normal for a guy to have a WAR over 5.0 two years in a row and below 2 the next. Also, it's not like Toronto is a pitcher's park either.  If you want to think Dozier is better, that's fine. 

 

He didn't say Dozier was "better" either. He said he was a guy to build around. Frankly, for the next four years (I think that's what Dozier's contract is, and Tulo's is what? 5?), I think he is a guy to build around.

[jimmer]

 

Oops I added wrong somewhere, good catch.  I think Tulo is a fantastic player I am not knocking him, I was more trying to show that Dozier is a pretty good player.  I only used Tulo in this specific case because of the attention he has gotten in the past 2-3 weeks.

 

Off topic and just on Tulo, but I will also add I am interested to watch his numbers going forward to see if that hip surgery he had last year has lasting effects.  His power and defense has slipped considerately this season, his first since the surgery.  

you and I are in step with our opinion on Dozier.  I've been driving his bandwagon since well before he even hit the majors.  

 

As far as Tulo goes had one month where he was just unbelievably bad. We have a lot of data from Tulo performance to let us know that was a huge outlier.  wRC+ in the 60s?  Yeah, that's not normal and it's really dragged him down.  The next month was more like him.  I'm not worried about him, as he moves farther away from when he had the surgery.  He's looking fine now.

[jimmer]

 

He didn't say Dozier was "better" either. He said he was a guy to build around. Frankly, for the next four years (I think that's what Dozier's contract is, and Tulo's is what? 5?), I think he is a guy to build around.

I didn't say he did.  I said his post seemed to suggest he was saying that.  He and I have cleared up the discussion.

[nokomismod]

I think Dozier is doing all the convincing.......he's an awesome player right now. Is that even up for debate?

Let's not get carried away with Dozier. He is a good player who is having a very good year. Do you think Dozier projects to have a better career or almost as good as Uggla? Look at Uggla's first 6 years and I would be happy if Dozier's next 5 years are that good, but I think this is going to be Dozier's peak (.250 average with 20-30 homeruns) which is very good especially considering his above average defense.

 

Someone else mentioned that he probably wouldn't return a front of the line starter or a very high offensive prospect due to the number of very good second basemen in the game right now.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure what projecting his career has to do with whether or not he was awesome last year, this year, and is likely to be next year. He's awesome right now. He was very good / awesome last year. I expect him to be very good / awesome next year.

 

If good to elite defense and 20+ HRs from your 2B isn't enough for some people to agree he's awesome / elite, no skin off my nose. I know his value.

[jimmer]

 

Let's not get carried away with Dozier. He is a good player who is having a very good year. Do you think Dozier projects to have a better career or almost as good as Uggla? Look at Uggla's first 6 years and I would be happy if Dozier's next 5 years are that good, but I think this is going to be Dozier's peak (.250 average with 20-30 homeruns) which is very good especially considering his above average defense.

Someone else mentioned that he probably wouldn't return a front of the line starter or a very high offensive prospect due to the number of very good second basemen in the game right now.

well, like you said Dozier can play defense, so I think it'll be better than Uggla.  He also has that extra something.  some leadership ability.  I do wish he hit better with RISP.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

well, like you said Dozier can play defense, so I think it'll be better than Uggla.  He also has that extra something.  some leadership ability.  I do wish he hit better with RISP.

Yeah, Uggla is a bad comp. He was a butcher with the glove.

 

Uggla played in the majors for ten seasons and accumulated a -69 (!) DRS.

 

Dozier is in his fourth season with a career +1 DRS.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let's not get carried away with Dozier. He is a good player who is having a very good year. Do you think Dozier projects to have a better career or almost as good as Uggla? Look at Uggla's first 6 years and I would be happy if Dozier's next 5 years are that good

To be fair, Uggla regularly rated as notably below average by defensive metrics.  And Dozier's 2014 WAR was better than any single season WAR of Uggla's.

 

Heck, by B-Ref, Dozier is on pace to have almost as many WAR the past 3 seasons as Uggla had his first 5-6.

 

Dan Uggla's first 6 years, with average or better defense at 2B and plus baserunning, is a pretty awesome player.

[dxpavelka]

 

I really can't tell if you are serious or not.......

 

Dozier is 19th in WAR......in all of baseball.*

 

*among the non-pitchers.

He LOOKS like an awesome player because he plays on a team that lacks options..251 hitters are only awesome if they have 23 home runs in the first week of June, not August.

[dxpavelka]

 

Judging a player by his batting average is very short sighted.  No player has 23 HR in the first week of June anymore, that is a pace to hit 55+.  Dozier is Top 3 in all of baseball for WAR for a 2B, has nearly twice the HR of any player playing the position.  His WAR is more than twice of the WAR of everyone's man crush Tulo...what's that say for "awesome players?"

Thank you for pointing out the stupidity of using WAR as a measuring stick.  Are you next going to tell me that he's twice the ballplayer that Tulo is?  That's what WAR is saying.

[dxpavelka]

 

About as short-sighted as basing talent level on one season of WAR

The REAL question is what does that tell us about using WAR as a means of evaluating ball players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Thank you for pointing out the stupidity of using WAR as a measuring stick.  Are you next going to tell me that he's twice the ballplayer that Tulo is?  That's what WAR is saying.

That's not what WAR is saying.

 

WAR stands for "Wins Above Replacement", not "Wins Above Cardboard Cutout". WAR determines a certain level of competency at the game of baseball as a baseline for zero. That's why players can be negative WAR.

 

Let's say a replacement player is a 5 out of a scale of 10. That seems a reasonable baseline for a AAAA player. Tulowitzki would be roughly a 7 out of 10. Dozier would be roughly an 8 out of 10. Hardly "double the player".

[DaveW]

 

 That's why players can be negative WAR.

Also as it is more commonly known in Minnesota: "the bullpen"

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also as it is more commonly known in Minnesota: "the bullpen"

Technically, the Twins bullpen is +0.4 WAR this year, according to Fangraphs.  25th in MLB, but not negative!

 

Maybe that's what TR was looking at, at the deadline.  "This bullpen is better than replacement, so I better not replace them!"

[LaBombo]

 

He LOOKS like an awesome player because he plays on a team that lacks options..251 hitters are only awesome if they have 23 home runs in the first week of June, not August.

 

Well, at least the path to awesomeness has been laid out plainly for middle infielders whose batting average trails the overall MLB average by two thousandths of a point.    Just hit home runs at a rate that puts you on pace to have the second highest season homer total in the history of the game.

 

In the mean time the Twins will have to get by with a second baseman currently with the second-highest OPS in the league at his position.

[nokomismod]

To be fair, Uggla regularly rated as notably below average by defensive metrics.  And Dozier's 2014 WAR was better than any single season WAR of Uggla's.

 

Heck, by B-Ref, Dozier is on pace to have almost as many WAR the past 3 seasons as Uggla had his first 5-6.

 

Dan Uggla's first 6 years, with average or better defense at 2B and plus baserunning, is a pretty awesome player.

Good point on the Uggla to Dozier comparison. I do recall now that Uggla's defense was pretty Uggly (sorry for bad pun). Dozier is superior on defense.

[Blake]

The Twins would show guts if they cut Joe Mauer and ate the contract.

 

Joe is no longer an asset providing diminishing returns. Rather, Mauer is a straight-up liability with a big contract and no upside.

 

Perhaps there is a lingering fondness for Mr. Mauer (I was one of them) but there comes a point where it is past time to let go.