Plan your work, work your plan

[goulik]

So today we are once again underwhelmed by the moves made by Terry Ryan.

 

Lets look at the history here:

In Terry Ryans first go around as GM, he built a solid team that consistently made the playoffs. We liked that we were the dominant team in the Central, and we really enjoyed being the nemesis of the Chicago White Sox. We enjoyed the rides but a series of one and dones, a growing hatred for the Yankees, and a sour taste in our mouths at the end of year after year was not enough for us.

 

He left, he came back to rebuild what quickly had disintegrated and he began the rebuild.

 

We went into off seasons looking at all the front line starters (Aces) we could have and ended up with the middling to back of rotation starters of Correia, Pelfrey, Hughes, Santana (Santana might be closer to the front but is not that Ace). Lets be honest though, many of those aces we hoped for did not pan out for their new teams and we were glad not to have many of them. We hoped for big impact bats to fill holes at catcher, short, outfield, third base, and DH. We ended up with Suzuki, Nunez, Morales, Hardy, Robinson, and Hunter. But lets be honest, some of those big names we really wanted havn't panned out either

 

So here we are, trade deadline past and our bullpen (which we were comfortable with in past years but somehow fell apart) was only addressed meagerly with one underwhelming trade. Somehow, Plouffe emerged. Hicks and Rosario filled the holes in the outfield without Buxton and Arcia (who we thought would fill the holes) Pelfry was better than we hoped, we didn't trade Milone but he has been better than many expected and our rotation is NOT our major concern (though we all still want that Ace for the World Series run next summer).

 

As I see it, Terry Ryans plan was this:

2013 Improve the overall talent in the system and build for the future. Check.

2014 Field an improved team, move prospects up the system, and win more games though still 2 years away. Nope, fired Gardy

2015 Field an improved team and be competitive through the all star break. Get the future starters feet wet and build the backbone of a very good 2016 team. Check

2016 Make a deep run and be the team that could win it all. We will see.

 

My point is that there is a plan and you need to work your plan not change the whole thing because we over achieved or under achieved. We all have been looking at this as a bubble about to burst and we all want to be in the playoffs this year, but the job of the GM isn't to get over excited or overly pessimistic. He is supposed to have a plan and follow that plan to its fruition. TR has a plan and he is working that plan. He has rebuilt the team and we are having fun watching baseball again. The darkest days are over.

 

BUT:

TR has NOT gotten us to the promised land. He has not EVER built the World Series team. He has made comptetive teams in the past and he has rebuilt us into a competitive team. The plan needs to go further and when the sun sets on TR there will be a deeper judgement than merely rebuilding.

 

The owner has to have a plan also. Here is mine regarding the GM if I were owner:

Improve the talent and get us back to relevance in 2013-14. (Did not happen quick enough. Im ok with firing Gardy but Ryan's leash just got shorter)

If not a 500 team through the all star break in 2015, Fire Ryan. (Were competitive so he is safe)

If not a team that looks to make a deep run in 2016, Gently replace Ryan. (We shall see...)

If 2016, 17, and 18 look like the early 2000 Twins with promising seasons ending in quick playoff exits, gently walk TR into the sunset and replace him with someone that will get us over that hump and to the rings before these young great prospects become all aging veterans.

 

Plan your work, work your plan. This is baseball. We are patient in baseball because things are built with long term strategy and planning with no quick fixes. But the plan has to include something more. Somewhere we will have to dive in head first and plunge deep for a Jack Morris type signing. Trade for a spark plug like Danny Gladden. Bring in that aging big bat like Chili Davis. I think that is NEXT year and I will be patient for it. But it is time. This offseason, next summers trade deadline need to be different. We need to prepare to take that run DEEP into the playoffs.

 

Plan your work, work your plan.

[dbminn]

Thoughtful article and I generally agree with the theme. Just a couple of items:

 

I think the plan has been to compete for the title in 2017. Prospects are starting to fill the major league roster but the Twins are still another year from having a full complement of seasoned young players. The Twins will still need to pursue a SS, C and a RP outside of the Twins system. The Twins need to make offseason moves to fill a couple of these positions with young, MLB-ready players. They have OF/DH/P prospects and a couple of veterans available for trade. 

 

I would keep Ryan through the end of the season. Ryan is and always will be a scout. He's developed a fine minor league system through both the draft and international signings. To me, he's less solid as a dealer. The big question is: Should he be the one to make the offseason trades and take the team into 2016?

[nicksaviking]

I guess my rebuttals would be:

 

A )Ryan's first rebuild was actually 1995-1999, it was a disaster.

 

B ) having the OK, not great starters might actually be the biggest problem, and worse than having awful starters. The 2016 rotation should include Berrios, May and Gibson. All these guys should be in the rotation for the sake of future development. Then there is Nolasco, Hughes and Santana. This team needs a better frontline starter, if not an ace, at least close to one. But this pitcher should be to supplement the young guys, not the old guys. Unfortunately, to get a quality starter, it would have to be one the young guys getting replaced because there's no way two of the vets with ugly contracts will get moved.

 

C ) Ryan's second rebuild was a huge (regular season) success, but baseball has dramatically changed since then and now all the other teams do what he did best (hold on to the team's best prospects and trade vets for other teams best guys, build with homegrown talent, elite defense,,,) and he's behind the curve for the best new strategies (statistical analysis, stockpiling power arms, signing tradable veterans on tradable contracts). He's lost his innovative advantage.

[amjgt]

Espn's take on our deadline.... (From an insider article)

 

Bueller? Bueller? Bueller? While it's not precisely correct to say that the Twins did nothing -- they acquired Kevin Jepsen and they signed Michael Bowden, who was a prospect eight to 10 years ago -- for all intents and purposes, they didn't do anything to change the contours of the wild-card race. Minnesota rightly doesn't want to give up any of its prime prospects with its window of contention still opening, but a more creative team could at least have done something, even a fairly minor move, to shore up its weak spots. They tell you to dress for the job you want, but the Twins showed up this deadline dressing more like a 90-loss team than a team that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

[birddog]

I agree with your picture of the plan. It will be interesting to see TR's waiver wire deals in the upcoming weeks. Maybe he can sneak through a SS, C or RP? We have to be at least satisfied with the team this year so far. Emphasis on so far. Are we in our annual collapse or is it just bad results against good teams? This is not  the team to get us to the promised land--yet. Still lots of questions and holes to be filled and I think it will be easier for TR to address the issues in the off season after seeing more prospects in September. Hopefully we will see if Max Kepler and some of the pitchers who are on the 40-man belong. 

 

Twins fans have been more than patient since the Nishioka jinx (sometimes referred to as the Billy Smith era) set the organization reeling. We have been preached to that the future is worth the wait. I sure hope so.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Mostly agree, but you also need to have the guts to abandon some of your preparations when conditions change. Off the top of my head I see three things that changed over the past 365 days: 1. Kansas City emerged as the best team in the American League, not a fluke, and they don't figure to slip too far down from that spot anytime soon; 2. The American League was surprisingly mediocre this season up to this point; 3. The Twins competitive window opened a little sooner than most people expected (if only because most people were so conditioned to continually pushing it out another two years).

 

I think a good GM recognizes those things and should adjust the plan accordingly. Love it or hate it, the wild card game may be our best shot for the next couple years, and you might as well take that shot.

[Badsmerf]

This team as is can compete for that wc. What needs to happen, it's so painfully obvious to everyone except jr. It's unbelievable really.

 

I was completely against trading assets at the deadline. I don't care about giving up Hu, unlike so many here. I wish the target was different, but we'll see how it turns out.

 

The season isn't over, I don't know why everyone pretends the twins are going belly up. Sure, other teams got better. The east is extremely competitive now and they will beat up on each other. The west has two good teams too. The twins also have reinforcements available in September.

[ashbury]

I don't know why everyone pretends the twins are going belly up.

Because everyone is arguing in bad faith, that's why.

[Craig Arko]

Because everyone is arguing in bad faith, that's why.

Everyone?

[nicksaviking]

Because everyone is arguing in bad faith, that's why.

It's not because they've lost four of their last five and nine of 12?

 

Though I'm not sure anyone is really talking "belly up" so much as coming back to earth.

[spinowner]

 

2. The American League was surprisingly mediocre this season up to this point

You are confusing parity with mediocrity. The AL has a winning record in interleague play; based on that I'd infer that it is the superior league. (And of course there's also that highly significant ASG win. *sarcasm*)

[ashbury]

Everyone?

One of the two words I was taking issue with, yes.

[Craig Arko]

One of the two words I was taking issue with, yes.

Ah, not everyone. "Everyone." I see the grammatical difference.

[USAFChief]

I see the grammatical difference.

doesnt everyone?

[jimmer]

 

It's not because they've lost four of their last five and nine of 12?

Though I'm not sure anyone is really talking "belly up" so much as coming back to earth.

Yeah, not so much going belly up as back to playing the way the talent on this team should.

 

Four months of baseball, we've had a losing record in three of them.  And we will know when it's the right time to go for it at the trade deadline if/when there is ever a season where Ryan does it.