MLBTR on the Availability of Catchers

[jimbo92107]

I will hold with my previous statement on dealing prospects: Don't sell the farm before the harvest.

 

The Twins are NOT ready to make a serious bid to win the Series this year. The main problem is a lack of major aces among the starters. All five are good, but not a one of them is a dominant ace.

 

Since pitching is at least 60 percent of the game (the other 40 percent is 90 percent mental), then it could be a massive mistake to trade good farm hands for a starting catcher that is only marginally better than Suzuki. Now, if you could get a Wilson Ramos, that'd be different... ;-)

 

Meanwhile, Stewart Turner apparently is waiting for some kind person to explain the art of hitting to him in Chattanooga. Would it be possible, in theory, to withdraw just a tiny bit of the brains of Rod Carew, Paul Molitor and Tom Brunansky, then inject those brain cells into Turner? Then make him read Ted Williams's "The Art of Hitting," and maybe talk to Eric Fryer about why it's a good idea for a catcher to cut his swing down and hit for a decent average...

[Thrylos]

 

Fryer and Suzuki as a platoon is not any worse than Salas/Laudner, yeah?

 

Salas was gone for Joe Niekro by June and the Catching was a trifecta of Laudner with Nieto and you know whose dad.

 

I don't mind Fryer/Suzuki until Pinto gets the ok to play and he is 100%.

 

hate to say it, but SS (Polanco anyone?) and the bullpen should be higher priorities than catching right now...

[DaveW]

 

Salas was gone for Joe Niekro by June and the Catching was a trifecta of Laudner with Nieto and you know whose dad.

 

I don't mind Fryer/Suzuki until Pinto gets the ok to play and he is 100%.

 

hate to say it, but SS (Polanco anyone?) and the bullpen should be higher priorities than catching right now...

Between Santana, Polanco and Escobar I think they can cobble SS together and just play ride the hottest hand of the moment.

 

My areas of need ranked:

1. Bullpen (shutdown 8th inning guy, and one more guy wouldn't hurt as well)

2. Catcher (Either a guy who is a clear upgrade over Suzuki, or a guy like Pierzynksikisksiksikikiiiii who can play in close to a 50/50 split with him)

3. A good bat off the bench (Plenty of in house solutions, especially come August/Sept/Oct)

4. SS

[drjim]

Between Santana, Polanco and Escobar I think they can cobble SS together and just play ride the hottest hand of the moment.

 

My areas of need ranked:

1. Bullpen (shutdown 8th inning guy, and one more guy wouldn't hurt as well)

2. Catcher (Either a guy who is a clear upgrade over Suzuki, or a guy like Pierzynksikisksiksikikiiiii who can play in close to a 50/50 split with him)

3. A good bat off the bench (Plenty of in house solutions, especially come August/Sept/Oct)

4. SS

I agree with this list but highly doubt they get to #2.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The Giants will trade prospects. The Giants may use Susac to get a piece they feel they need. That wasn't going to happen in May. They are going to go through internal options first. McGehee didn't work out. Duffy looks to be working out. If something happens to Duffy between now and July 31, the Giants valuation of Susac will not have changed but their motivation to make the move will have changed.

 

Meanwhile the Twins are winning with Suzuki or in spite of Suzuki. Which is it? Somehow Suzuki keeps putting up unimpressive offensive and defensive numbers on winning teams.

The Twins were not winning when Suzuki put up impressive offensive numbers. Maybe his secret is hitting poorly.

[clone52]

 

Between Santana, Polanco and Escobar I think they can cobble SS together and just play ride the hottest hand of the moment.

 

My areas of need ranked:

1. Bullpen (shutdown 8th inning guy, and one more guy wouldn't hurt as well)

2. Catcher (Either a guy who is a clear upgrade over Suzuki, or a guy like Pierzynksikisksiksikikiiiii who can play in close to a 50/50 split with him)

3. A good bat off the bench (Plenty of in house solutions, especially come August/Sept/Oct)

4. SS

 

I think #1 is all they need to and should go for this year.  They can get some bullpen help without gauging the farm system.

 

If they have a catcher upgrade fall into their laps, then go for it, but I wouldn't trade much for it.  Suzuki is hitting .276 in July, so maybe he can be a .250 hitter the rest of the way, which isn't bad.

 

I just don't see any SS options out there that I'd want.  Tulowitzki is pricey and an injury risk.  I wouldn't want to give up the prospects needed to get him with that risk.  I doubt Boston would trade Bogaerts and if the did, the prospect price would be high.  The guys out there who would be nice are very unlikely to be traded, or not that much of an upgrade.

 

Santana had a good week, where he looked like Santana from last year.   Maybe you ride him the rest of July and see if he's turned a corner.  If not, you send Santana down to AAA, make Escobar your everyday SS, Nunez your backup infielder and call up Arcia to give you pop of the bench.

 

I agree that you fix your bench from withing.  When Buxton is healthy, you send him to Rehab in AAA.  If Rosario and Hicks are still playing well, you leave Buxton in AAA until the end of August, then you setup your playoff roster with Rosario, Hunter, Hicks and Buxton as your OF, unless Buxton really struggles in AAA.  Robinson either doesn't make the post-season roster or you keep him and go to 11 pitchers.  IMO, you go with 11 pitchers and have Robinson or Santana fill out your roster.

 

The following is not a bad playoff lineup:

 

Dozier

Hunter

Mauer

Sano

Plouffe

Rosario

Hicks

Suzuki

Escobar 

 

With the following on the bench

Fryar

Arcia

Nunez

Buxton

Santana/Robinson

 

Rotation

Gibson

Milone

Hughes

Santana

 

Bullpen

Perkins

Fien

Boyer (get him rested up, or replace him if he struggles in July/Auguest)

O'Rourke (or a better option, maybe Berrios)

May

Pelfrey (unless they have real relievers doing well)

Graham (or a better option, but I say give him some high leverage opportunities)

[nicksaviking]

I think #1 is all they need to and should go for this year.

I agree that shoring up the pen might be good enough to contend got the post season.

 

If they want the big prize, they almost certainly can't run with a rotation with three #3 starters and whatever the hell Pelfrey an Milone are. This team still needs to hit gold with May, Berrios or Meyer first.

[biggentleben]

 

And I disagree because there's a good chance the Giants say "call me back in six weeks" and hang up the phone.

It's mid-July and has there been a notable trade in MLB yet? There certainly wasn't one in May. Teams aren't in a rush to make changes even in June because there are so many roster variables in play.

 

Braves stole away Touki Toussaint for being willing to take on Bronson Arroyo's salary. That's a baseball business notable trade, but not really notable for this year's playoffs, true.

[biggentleben]

 

Sano and Fryer for Bogaerts and Swihart?  Mostly kidding.

 

Terrible trade offer that didn't include Duensing = death to trade proposal. Sorry. Please try again!

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

Salas was gone for Joe Niekro by June and the Catching was a trifecta of Laudner with Nieto and you know whose dad.

 

I don't mind Fryer/Suzuki until Pinto gets the ok to play and he is 100%.

 

hate to say it, but SS (Polanco anyone?) and the bullpen should be higher priorities than catching right now...

Ah yes - Laudner / Nieto / Butera - nothing too fancy about those guys. I would of course prefer someone like Brian Harper to play behind the plate, but Fryer / Suzuki can be good enough to not kill the Twins chances.

 

I'm really pulling for Pinto to get healthy, too. I think he makes the Twins better if he can play.

 

[DJL44]

Ervin Santana is not eligible for the playoffs. That has to be May

 

 

The following is not a bad playoff lineup:

 

Rotation

Gibson

Milone

Hughes

Santana

 

 

 

 

[howieramone2]

 

Ah yes - Laudner / Nieto / Butera - nothing too fancy about those guys. I would of course prefer someone like Brian Harper to play behind the plate, but Fryer / Suzuki can be good enough to not kill the Twins chances.

 

I'm really pulling for Pinto to get healthy, too. I think he makes the Twins better if he can play.

Molly is working diligently to make our favorite team better defensively. Can't imagine he will take a step backwards and allow Pinto behind the plate.

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure defense is the only thing they are looking at, Santana is not exactly a whiz out there......

[clone52]

 

 

Ervin Santana is not eligible for the playoffs. That has to be May

 

 

 

 

I always forget that.  Probably may, but if Pelfrey sticks around and is decent it could be him, especially if May becomes a lockdown bullpen guy.  If May shows that he could be a stud 7th or 8th inning guy and Pelfrey doesn't completely flop, I'd throw Pelfrey in the rotation.

 

How great would it be to have the 7th through 9th inning locked up if May and Fien could do that?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Great post, and this was also one of the reasons to question the Span trade in real-time.

And that's fair. I wasn't down on the Span trade nearly as much as you were for a few reasons:

 

1. After 2011, it was apparent the Twins would not compete. Holding on to Span would have provided no real benefit to the 2012 squad, who might have cracked 70 wins with Denard on the team.

 

2. After 2011, it was also apparent the Twins needed pitching in a big, bad way. The earlier you trade for pitching, the more quickly that pitching reaches the majors and contributes to the team.

 

Unfortunately, the second piece hasn't worked out for the Twins but losing Span had negligible impact until the beginning of this season when the Twins stopped being awful. If anything, not having Span helped the Twins move up the draft ladder a bit.

 

We all wish Meyer was with the Twins having a Trevor May type season but I still believe the deal has a chance to wash out fairly for both teams. To me, it doesn't matter as much when Alex Meyer contributes to the Twins as it does that he contribute at some point and that contribution lasts 6-7 years.

 

Obviously, your mileage may vary on that opinion but the way I see it, if the Twins lose three seasons of Span and gain six seasons of a quality pitcher in Meyer, then it was a fair deal for both sides.

[Mike Sixel]

6 to 7 years? He is 25......good luck with that now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

6 to 7 years? He is 25......good luck with that now.

You're right, the Twins should put him out to pasture.

 

We're all disappointed that Alex Meyer isn't dominating MLB hitters but he's 25 years old. James Shields debuted as a 24 year old and had his first standout season as a 25 year old. Kyle Gibson debuted as a 25 year old and is having his first standout season as a 27 year old. Garrett Richards scuffled for several years before putting it together last season for the Angels as a 26 year old.

 

People have irrational expectations on timelines with prospects. Yeah, it's unfortunate that Meyer isn't where we want him but a guy with his stuff could easily be dominant through his mid-30s.

 

Not every player develops at the same pace or faces the same setbacks. What's important is that they contribute, not that they contribute within an arbitrary timespan set by an expectant fanbase.

 

2015 Brian Dozier is not a less effective player just because it took him a few years of scuffling before he broke out as a 26 year old. Same goes for Trevor Plouffe. If anything, Twins fans should be more acutely aware of how expectations become irrelevant if the player starts performing at some point. After all, the Twins' two best position players, their best starting pitcher, and their best reliever all became productive players in the later half of their 20s.

[gocgo]

For those who mentioned AJ Pierzinskicantthrowanyoneout...the last time I checked, he calls a good game but gets run on all day.  I'll pass.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

For those who mentioned AJ Pierzinskicantthrowanyoneout...the last time I checked, he calls a good game but gets run on all day.  I'll pass.

AJ threw out Billy Hamilton in May - And he has exactly the same number of runners caught stealing as Kurt Suzuki does this year... Yes, he's terrible at it, but so is everyone else the Twins have used this year. Fryer's only played 18 innings, but he has yet to throw out a runner this year. 

Herrmann was a respectable league average 33% 4/12 caught...

 

 

[howieramone2]

 

Not sure defense is the only thing they are looking at, Santana is not exactly a whiz out there......

Mike, do you believe Santana's defense at SS, is an apt comparison to Pinto's at C?

[Willihammer]

Kurt Suzuki has (almost) caught the first half's strikiest ball. -3 inches from the center of the zone, for the 2nd year in a row.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-seasons-ball-iest-called-strikes-so-far/

 

Last' season- 1.4 inches from center of zone: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-seasons-strike-iest-called-balls-so-far/

 

 

[drjim]

 

Kurt Suzuki has (almost) caught the first half's strikiest ball. -3 inches from the center of the zone, for the 2nd year in a row.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-seasons-ball-iest-called-strikes-so-far/

 

Last' season- 1.4 inches from center of zone: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-seasons-strike-iest-called-balls-so-far/

 

The links don't line up, no link to this year.

 

I thought his analysis on the Suzuki catch last year was atrocious. Guerrier missed his spot by 6-8 inches, there is no way Suzuki could have minimized his movement all that much - just happened Guerrier missed more into the zone not away from it.

 

Some umps will still call the zone true but many will not reward a pitcher who misses by that much.

 

I would go 30% ump, 65% Guerrier, 5% Suzuki.

[gocgo]

 

AJ threw out Billy Hamilton in May - And he has exactly the same number of runners caught stealing as Kurt Suzuki does this year... Yes, he's terrible at it, but so is everyone else the Twins have used this year. Fryer's only played 18 innings, but he has yet to throw out a runner this year. 

Herrmann was a respectable league average 33% 4/12 caught...

Well, I'll be go to heck.  Both throwing out 20 percent.  Sign him up!  We could use a little attitude on this team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, do you believe Santana's defense at SS, is an apt comparison to Pinto's at C?

 

I don't know. We've barely seen Pinto play, and (unless you count framing) I think catcher defense is over rated. All I've wanted is for Pinto to have the same chance Santana has received, so we can see if it really matters or not......now, things have happened this year that prevented it. It should have happened last year, imo.

[biggentleben]

 

AJ Pierzynski will likely traded by the Braves but not likely to the Twins. Mariners and other teams have been asking the Braves about Pierzynski so I expect by the deadline he will be on the move but am doubtful it will be to the Minnesota Twins. Throwing out runners was never a forte of AJ, I hope if the Twins go for a catching upgrade they can find someone that is closer to the 35 to 38% range for throwing out runners.

 

The word in Atlanta is that for Jim Johnson, AJ, or Cameron Maybin to move, the team who acquires them would have to also take on Chris Johnson. The first team to do that will make the cost for the other two cheaper financially, but they could also get a better deal for the guy they want. There's also some work being done by the Braves to attach Bronson Arroyo to one of those three as well.

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins do make a deal for AJ, they should try to get full rights to Graham as part of that deal. The flexibility to send Graham to AAA would help if they add a bullpen arm combined with the return of Pressly.

[DaveW]

 

The word in Atlanta is that for Jim Johnson, AJ, or Cameron Maybin to move, the team who acquires them would have to also take on Chris Johnson. The first team to do that will make the cost for the other two cheaper financially, but they could also get a better deal for the guy they want. There's also some work being done by the Braves to attach Bronson Arroyo to one of those three as well.

Nobody is going to take on Chris Johnson to just get AJ, if the Braves are seriously asking that then there is no way AJ gets traded.
Maybin is a different story obviously.

[biggentleben]

 

Nobody is going to take on Chris Johnson to just get AJ, if the Braves are seriously asking that then there is no way AJ gets traded.
Maybin is a different story obviously.

 

If you can trade Melvin Upton with ANYONE, there's someone out there who'd add on Chris Johnson to a deal to get the guy they desire.

[DaveW]

 

If you can trade Melvin Upton with ANYONE, there's someone out there who'd add on Chris Johnson to a deal to get the guy they desire.

Not for AJ, Johnson is pretty much worthless to most teams these days and he is owed 16.5 million over 16/17 (plus 3 million this year and a 1 million dollar buyout in 2018) likely he would be cut from a contending team sometime in that time anyways. SO you are more or less paying 22 million for a few months of AJ. Not going to happen..

[biggentleben]

 

Not for AJ, Johnson is pretty much worthless to most teams these days and he is owed 16.5 million over 16/17 (plus 3 million this year and a 1 million dollar buyout in 2018) likely he would be cut from a contending team sometime in that time anyways. SO you are more or less paying 22 million for a few months of AJ. Not going to happen..

 

I don't think the Braves are looking for a team to pay 100% of CJ's deal, but they want him gone because they don't want him occupying a roster spot for the next 2 years.