Jose Berrios Promoted to Triple-A

[jokin]

 

I wonder how much of a factor having ready replacements for Chattanooga has in deciding who and when to promote someone.  Peavy went up a week ago because Wheeler needed to go down.  I would guess Berrios' spot in the lookout rotation goes to Hu.  Is anyone available to step in for Sano?  Could that effect his call-up?

 

I would hope not.

 

Goodrum is already there.

[GACbaseball]

If they thought he was the better pitcher than the one he replaced, then no, we wouldn't be punting. We would be trying to put the best team on the field. If he happens to struggle out of the gates, that is outside of the managers control and I would still be fine with us trying to put in our best players.

 

Just like with the Rays picking Delmon Young #1, you can't be mad at it because he was the consensus best player at the time. Then it just becomes bad luck if they struggle

[bird]

 

Both Meyer and May had a lot of struggles with command, which lead to their struggles early on. May has seemed to adjust and start to throw more strikes while Meyer has not. Neither one of them dominated the minors the way Berrios has.

From what I've heard, Berrios has excellent command so I would think he would be more successful early on than those two

 

 

That very well could be the case. It could also be the case that he begins his MLB career and performs better out of the shoot than any of the rest of them. History tells me to be skeptical though.  I'm an old man who remembers the struggles of studs like Viola and Radke.

 

Hell, if it was up to me, I'm dangling the whole rotation at the trade deadline and taking any overpay I can, because my sense is the team ain't going nowhere too exciting until we have one more incremental upgrade of 2-3 rotation slots and 2-3 of the fireballers in AA or below make their way up here.

[Pitz]

Is there any word on when he is scheduled to make his first start for Rochester? His 5th day would be Friday, which I would be ecstatic about since I've got tickets for that game. 

[d-mac]

 

Sorry for my misstep. Hope i didn't ruin your day. Maybe you should take a nap - you seem a little crabby.

 

Sorry, that's one of my biggest pet peeves. Calling the DL the IR or people assuming that there is a salary cap in baseball. The NFL doesn't rule everything. 

[d-mac]

 

And...?

 

And what? I mean Mike Pelfrey is a bad pitcher. He could probably be a good bullpen arm, though. Even if Berrios struggles he's not likely to go 2 1/3 innings and give up 8 runs in his first start. 

[DuluthFan]

The most likely outcome is that Berrios gets to compete for a starting position NEXT spring. Pelfrey will be a free agent and his spot in the rotation will be available. It should also be enough time for the coaching staff to determine whether to bring back Milone.

 

In any case it is OK to have a major league ready pitcher sitting at AAA. There are bound to be callups to cover for injuries throughout the season.

[Pitz]

I know people may not want to hear this, but is it possible that Duffey and Rogers are still ahead of Berrios in the promotion pecking order? I know Berrios is considered the much better prospect with a higher ceiling, but both Duffey and Rogers have pitched well in AAA already. How do they factor into Berrios' timetable? If he outpitches them, hopefully they don't impact his promotion at all, but what if they have about the same results or are slightly better?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I know people may not want to hear this, but is it possible that Duffey and Rogers are still ahead of Berrios in the promotion pecking order? I know Berrios is considered the much better prospect with a higher ceiling, but both Duffey and Rogers have pitched well in AAA already. How do they factor into Berrios' timetable? If he outpitches them, hopefully they don't impact his promotion at all, but what if they have about the same results or are slightly better?

 

All three aren't on the 40 man roster. Duffey and Berrios need to be added this November. Berrios next November. 

 

Duffey has done it in AAA now and he's in line for an opportunity soon too. But, if Berrios dominates, he can reclaim that billing as the next guy. As someone mentioned, the Twins did call up Buxton, though that was in mid-June. I would call up Berrios in August if they're contending and he's doing well, but i wouldn't call him up for September unless they're still in contention.

 

Duffey and Rogers, I think come up in September.

[bird]

 

And what? I mean Mike Pelfrey is a bad pitcher. He could probably be a good bullpen arm, though. Even if Berrios struggles he's not likely to go 2 1/3 innings and give up 8 runs in his first start. 

 

 

Based on Pelfrey's entire body of work in 2015, and not one horrific start? Be reasonable, my friend. And if the unlikely event happened and Berrios pulled an Alex Meyer in his first appearance, will he, like Pelfrey, be a bad pitcher? It's not as unlikely as you think that Berrios, like many before him, stinks up the joint and shatters your expectations in his first dozen appearances. I mean, I want to see him sooner rather than later, but I'll be very pleasantly surprised if he's an immediate game-changer.

[Mike Sixel]

Rogers, IMO, should replace Duensing right now......

[DocBauer]

HUH?  21 is an adult.  Many HOFers were in the majors when they were 21 (also quite a few of the HO very good players as well as future busts).  When Buxton was promoted not long ago, were you one of those screaming "...No! He's too young!

Huh? I don't get the post.

 

Pushing 50, pretty much every prospect is a "kid" to me. Were I 35 and discussing a 21 yo old "young legally recognized adult", I'd probably still refer to him as a "kid".

 

I never screamed anything about Buxton. I do remember stating I would wait a few more weeks to promote him, figuring if he was on a nice roll, then I would keep him on that roll before making a move. And that was in response to speculation of him being promoted to the majors. Unless I have amnesia, I don't believe I EVER said to promote him straight to the Twins. My comments were to wait...IF you were going to do it. (Not that the Twins listened to me.)

 

And once again, I am stating I don't expect Berrios to reach the majors this season. That I don't see a necessity to push him too hard. Though I do allow for a September visit, if felt necessary or appropriate, to assist in his preparation for next season. I feel I was not only very clear, but very consistent in regard to these similar but different situations/posts.

 

Also confused about the 21 yo HOF issue. Berrios is a HOFer? I thought he was a very talented young prospect with a bright future. For every quickly promoted 21-ish player who achieves great success, I think you'd find twice as many (probably conservative) that didn't achieve success. I believe in developing and promoting talented young ball players when ready. Not too fast, but not too slow either. I wish it was as simple as promoting a future HOFer.

[jokin]

 

Rogers, IMO, should replace Duensing right now......

 

Or yesterday.

Or two weeks ago.

Or when Duece first went on the DL in April...

 

How does a relief pitcher with equal K/9 and BB/9 rates of 4.91 still have a major league job? And forget the "split advantage" for a lefty arm... vs LHB here's his slash:  .344/.447/.438/(.885).

 

Mind. Boggling.

[amjgt]

 

I sense that the pitching staff as a whole is hitting a wall.  I would not be surprised to see an IR stint for one or more of the starters in the coming weeks.   

 

 

 

All these damn quality starts are really racking up the innings for these guys.

[bird]

 

Or yesterday.

Or two weeks ago.

Or when Duece first went on the DL in April...

 

How does a relief pitcher with equal K/9 and BB/9 rates of 4.91 still have a major league job? And forget the "split advantage" for a lefty arm... vs LHB here's his slash:  .344/.447/.438/(.885).

 

Mind. Boggling.

 

 

I love it. Another countdown. Like we had with Alex Meyer.

[jokin]

 

I love it. Another countdown. Like we had with Alex Meyer.

 

Huh?  The absolute apples and oranges comp of all time...  But typical, more defense of the indefensible.

[tobi0040]

 

Rogers, IMO, should replace Duensing right now......

 

I agree. But we simply cannot cut Duensing.  He is the missing link in the Trout or Hamels trade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or yesterday.

Or two weeks ago.

Or when Duece first went on the DL in April...

 

How does a relief pitcher with equal K/9 and BB/9 rates of 4.91 still have a major league job? And forget the "split advantage" for a lefty arm... vs LHB here's his slash:  .344/.447/.438/(.885).

 

Mind. Boggling.

 

I knew I should have trade marked "Mind. Boggling." Alas......

[d-mac]

 

Based on Pelfrey's entire body of work in 2015, and not one horrific start? Be reasonable, my friend. And if the unlikely event happened and Berrios pulled an Alex Meyer in his first appearance, will he, like Pelfrey, be a bad pitcher? It's not as unlikely as you think that Berrios, like many before him, stinks up the joint and shatters your expectations in his first dozen appearances. I mean, I want to see him sooner rather than later, but I'll be very pleasantly surprised if he's an immediate game-changer.

 

I am being reasonable. I'm not saying Berrios is going to come out and dominate out of the gate. The odds are always that the transition will be bumpy. But he's a better pitcher than May or Gibson were in their careers at the same point. And being better than Pelfrey is a very low bar. Pelfrey has a xFIP of 4.51 this year. He had a xFIP of 4.54 in 2013 with the Twins. In today's run scoring environment that is a bad pitcher. The projections over at fangraphs have him throwing up and ERA between 4.67 and 5.10 the rest of the year. He has no business starting on a team in the AL. 

[jokin]

 

I knew I should have trade marked "Mind. Boggling." Alas......

 

Rogers, IMO, should replace Duensing right now......

 

Fair enough, and I should have charged rent for the Bandwagon I built this spring for my "Taylor Rogers campaign to the Twins pen"...

[jokin]

 

Based on Pelfrey's entire body of work in 2015, and not one horrific start? Be reasonable, my friend. And if the unlikely event happened and Berrios pulled an Alex Meyer in his first appearance, will he, like Pelfrey, be a bad pitcher? It's not as unlikely as you think that Berrios, like many before him, stinks up the joint and shatters your expectations in his first dozen appearances. I mean, I want to see him sooner rather than later, but I'll be very pleasantly surprised if he's an immediate game-changer.

 

 

And yet, we always seem to discount the experiences of those that find quick success, as in the current case  of the Indians' Cody Anderson, 14th round pick and completely unheralded.  Despite the Indians SP depth, they decided to give a kid with only 3 games of AAA experience a shot in their rotation.   And with a little luck, Anderson has ended up throwing his first two games like a seasoned vet, taking a no-hitter late into his last game.  Berrios has found success quickly at every level, I would hope he's given every consideration for a shot, and not all-too-routinely held back for the Twins latest raison de jour.

[dbminn]

 

And yet, we always seem to discount the experiences of those that find quick success, as in the current case  of the Indians' Cody Anderson, 14th round pick and completely unheralded.  Despite the Indians SP depth, they decided to give a kid with only 3 games of AAA experience a shot in their rotation.   And with a little luck, Anderson has ended up throwing his first two games like a seasoned vet, taking a no-hitter late into his last game.  Berrios has found success quickly at every level, I would hope he's given every consideration for a shot, and not all-too-routinely held back for the Twins latest raison de jour.

 

Cody Anderson is almost 25 years old.

[jokin]

 

Cody Anderson is almost 25 years old.

 

 

Agreed. But age wasn't the point of my post, more that calling up guys without major league experience, no matter their pedigree, doesn't automatically mean instant failure/struggles.

 

 Berrios has taken expectations for himself one step farther than just about anyone else, he has publicly made his major league goals clear from the day he was drafted- he wants to be throwing with the Twins by Age 21.  Hopefully the Twins don't wait around on Berrios until he's Anderson's age.  

[drjim]

 

And yet, we always seem to discount the experiences of those that find quick success, as in the current case  of the Indians' Cody Anderson, 14th round pick and completely unheralded.  Despite the Indians SP depth, they decided to give a kid with only 3 games of AAA experience a shot in their rotation.   And with a little luck, Anderson has ended up throwing his first two games like a seasoned vet, taking a no-hitter late into his last game.  Berrios has found success quickly at every level, I would hope he's given every consideration for a shot, and not all-too-routinely held back for the Twins latest raison de jour.

 

Cody Anderson is no Andrew Albers.

[jimbo92107]

 

I sense that the pitching staff as a whole is hitting a wall.  I would not be surprised to see an IR stint for one or more of the starters in the coming weeks.   

 

A couple of starts for Berrios at AAA before the all-star break will tell us a great deal about his readiness to take the next step.   Assuming all goes well with his starts and the likelihood of one or more starters faltering, I see a late July call up as a possibility.

I'm not sure which of the current starters seem likely to pull up lame. They all seem pretty sturdy right now. Hughes has a little dead arm, but seems effective now. Pelfrey had a clunker, but not because of arm trouble. May also had a clunker, but looks strong as a horse. Gibson looks solid, and Milone looks like he could pitch forever like he's doing. Nolasco is gone, probably for the year. Santana is coming, but his arm should be relatively fresh.

 

I agree that Berrios may not need more than a handful of starts in AAA to confirm what everybody feels about him - he's ready. But is he going to be ready to pitch better than Milone? May? Pelfrey? If Berrios completely dominates AAA hitters, then it will become a much more interesting question, but that's at least a few weeks in the future. Even if they do bring him up, I'm not sure they'd put him into the rotation right away. More likely he'd spend some time in the bullpen for long relief, then a spot start or two. They sure could have used him in the first game with Cincy!

[beckmt]

Trade Deadline without waivers is July 31. By that time Berrios will have at least 4 AAA starts. That should tell the story. Also will know where the Twins are at that time and we could be both buyers and sellers. Could see us selling some low end of the rotation starters(Pelfrey and Nolasco, possibly May) for upgrades elsewhere. Twins have there work cut out and many of these names will have to be gone to open spots this offseason. Interesting to see what happens.

[TheLeviathan]

If this swoon continues, this move could mean we see Berrios for 6-7 starts this year.  That's really exciting.  (The Berrios part....not the swoon)

[nicksaviking]

Based on Pelfrey's entire body of work in 2015, and not one horrific start? Be reasonable, my friend. And if the unlikely event happened and Berrios pulled an Alex Meyer in his first appearance, will he, like Pelfrey, be a bad pitcher? It's not as unlikely as you think that Berrios, like many before him, stinks up the joint and shatters your expectations in his first dozen appearances. I mean, I want to see him sooner rather than later, but I'll be very pleasantly surprised if he's an immediate game-changer.

I fully expect all rookies to struggle. The few times they don't as always a nice surprise. That's also why I'd prefer the struggles to happen in 2015 than 2016. I don't think it will happen though.

[bird]

 

Huh?  The absolute apples and oranges comp of all time...  But typical, more defense of the indefensible.

 

 

No need for snark, as I was simply referencing the fact that it's rather commonplace to see a campaign on TD for the promotion of a hot prospect. I don't discount the possibility that Berrios, or someone else, can have immediate success. But the skepticism some of us have had has been proven out much more often than not. For example, when you and others were clamoring for Meyer and expressing how mind.boggling it was to start the year with Pelfrey in the rotation, perhaps my skepticism was warranted, no? And perhaps the harsh criticism of the FO was, let's just say, defensible.

 

How a single example like 25-year old Cody Anderson bolsters any argument for a quick promotion of Berrios is beyond me. But hey, I'm as in favor of seeing Pelfrey traded and Berrios promoted as the next guy, just with perhaps more tempered expectations. 

[bird]

 

I fully expect all rookies to struggle. The few times they don't as always a nice surprise. That's also why I'd prefer the struggles to happen in 2015 than 2016. I don't think it will happen though.

 

Yeah, I completely agree.