Are Twins Heading Down This Path With Recent Drafting Trends?

[Steve Lein]

I was recently directed to an article that I happen to find very interesting, that discusses the starting pitcher usage of the Kansas City Royals, and Tampa Bay Rays.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/royals-rays-reinventing-how-teams-use-starting-pitchers-2015-6

 

The basic jist, is the Royals and Rays don't want their starting pitchers to face the opposing lineup more than twice per game if they can afford to avoid it.

 

This is due to the actually pretty well known fact that hitters are much better against a pitcher the more times they face them in a game.

 

The Royals are especially effective at this because they have an amazing stable of relief pitchers. But the most interesting thing to me, is that despite the Royals pulling their pitchers much earlier than anyone else, they also aren't racking up tons of innings on any of their relievers.

 

Many have criticized the Twins for drafting so many "relievers" early in the past few drafts, but my thinking is it may be they've also embraced this trend, and have been doing so in order to work toward implementing this approach in the future?

 

It makes a lot of sense to me actually, but what do you guys think?

[drjim]

Are we really supposed to believe that there is actually thought, analysis and/or strategy behind the actions of the front office?

[formerly33]

 

Are we really supposed to believe that there is actually thought, analysis and/or strategy behind the actions of the front office?

No ... and that's what's going to make it all the more enjoyable when you finally realize that there is.

[Mike Sixel]

I've been preaching this for some time, so I hope they are doing it, and I hope they are right!

 

Now, they just need to continue to show faith in those guys, and cut the cord on bad veterans.

[Dman]

I hope this is true as I think it is an effective strategy.  We have lots of power arms now and hopefully they become the shut down arms we have been waiting for.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think it's effective for some marginal pitchers, but when a guy put up zeros through two turns in the order, taking him out the third turn seems rather silly.  i'm more of a pull them when they show signs of being ineffective.  I also think that pitchers tiring are a good reason for trouble the third time through. 

[DuluthFan]

If you look at what the Twins are doing, their starters usually last about 6 innings. It just so happens that they seem to need 100 pitches to do it in. It could also explain why they have the extra bullpen arms.

[HitInAPinch]

Interesting..... 

 

I think there's a couple things behind this theory.  One, is there are far more marginal pitchers available that the Roger Clemens / Randy Johnson type.  So, take a staff of "marginal" pitchers and have them pitch with maximum effort for 5 innings, instead of milking through the 1st few inning them to pitch beyond that. 

 

You'd probably have to rethink your bullpen, as well.  Would there really be a Closer or would everyone in the bullpen be expected to be able to throw at least 2 inning? 

 

I wonder what that does to their payroll and how crazy that makes player agents....

[nicksaviking]

If you look at what the Twins are doing, their starters usually last about 6 innings. It just so happens that they seem to need 100 pitches to do it in. It could also explain why they have the extra bullpen arms.

Yes. I'm not saying the Twins aren't capable any kind of new age philosophies, but clearly the current one is still based on pitch count.

[nicksaviking]

I think it's effective for some marginal pitchers, but when a guy put up zeros through two turns in the order, taking him out the third turn seems rather silly.  i'm more of a pull them when they show signs of being ineffective.  I also think that pitchers tiring are a good reason for trouble the third time through.

 

Yup, because what to KC and TB have in common? James Shields, who has been among the league leaders in innings each year for about a decade. TB also gave David Price huge innings. Neither team has a true front line starter now so it makes sense to limit the innings of the marginal starters.

[blairpaul715]

Well I dont think the strategy is for them to only face batters twice, I think the stategy is if they have a lead after 6 in a close game to use their shutdown pen to keep it that way, it has worked for KC..........if the strategy was to only face twice thru lineup, they would never get thru the 6th inning.......6 perfect innings is 18 batters.

[Steve Lein]

Yeah Blair, I would also point out, that the article only mentions the Royals and Rays have pulled starters at or before facing the 18th man more than any other teams this year, but not exactly in a ton of games.

 

They're still averaging facing around 23 hitters per game, but that's the lowest by quite a margin against almost everyone else.

 

I do agree that it makes little sense to pull a starter so early if they're cruising, but it has been done by these teams in that scenario.

 

But you're idea of the strategy being to let that shutdown 'pen go to work, is likely correct. It's pretty much the same idea, though: Don't overexpose the starters unnecessarily.

[Steve Lein]

-->https://twitter.com/KennedyKr_is/status/614908678605565952

[spinowner]

This reminds me of the discussion we had a month or two ago about having a pitching staff with only relievers. The only difference with this approach is that the starters go 5-6 innings instead of 2-3. And as has been said before a reliable power pen is required for this to work.

[drjim]

 

This reminds me of the discussion we had a month or two ago about having a pitching staff with only relievers. The only difference with this approach is that the starters go 5-6 innings instead of 2-3. And as has been said before a reliable power pen is required for this to work.

 

Not only a reliable power pen, but about 10-12 of them with options and flexibility to shuttle between AAA and the majors.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would think at one point that this would tax the pen unnecessarily.  I do think it would be very nice to have 4 guys who are  shut down types in the back of the pen.  The early 2000s Twins had a pen like that.  It makes it easy to win games when you have a lead.  Not quite sure I'd dump a starter doing well though.  But if through the rotation, you remove one of the poorer starters in that way, I think the pen would be fine. 

[TheLeviathan]

Bert is gonna hate this.....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I would think at one point that this would tax the pen unnecessarily.  I do think it would be very nice to have 4 guys who are  shut down types in the back of the pen.  The early 2000s Twins had a pen like that.  It makes it easy to win games when you have a lead.  Not quite sure I'd dump a starter doing well though.  But if through the rotation, you remove one of the poorer starters in that way, I think the pen would be fine.

 

interesting thought to use a 4 man rotation, 8 man bullpen. It would also be helpful if you had at least 4-5 relievers who could go 2+ innings regularly. You couldn't afford a Loogy unless you routinely had a 13 pitcher staff.