Attention Mauer Haters!

[cr9617]

Joe Mauer would have received more than $181m on the open market. The Yankees, Red Sox, and other large market teams were absolutely clamoring to find a good catcher in 2009. Posada was on his way out. Varitek was 150 years old. Mauer would have received Pujols-type money from one of those teams.

Yep, never disagreed with that.

I'm saying it's a mute point. He never intended to leave the Twins, and he wouldn't last 1 day in NY or Boston, and he knows it. He would have been absolutely destroyed last year. He can't even handle the media pressure in the Twin Cities....

[jokin]

He takes far more walks than Kirby. He plays catcher, historically the weakest offensive position on the field. His slugging percentage is pretty much the same as Kirby's.

 

His career OBP is a whopping 40 points higher than Kirby, who never posted an OBP higher than .379. Joe is on his way to cresting a .400 OBP for a fifth time in his career. The only tangible advantage Kirby had over Joe was in stolen bases, which Kirby basically stopped doing in his mid to late 20s.

 

Kirby Puckett was a very good baseball player. Joe Mauer is a better one.

Kirby's approach at the plate was "the anti-Joe Mauer". I don't know if there are splits for Puckett, but he was a very good "bad ball" hitter. When asked what his hitting philosophy was, he stated that he didn't have a philosophy, "I just go up there hackin'". His BB% is close to Ben Revere's.

 

You are largely correct about tangibles, although the last 10 years of Puck's career, when he converted himself to a power player, he averaged 20.3 HRs/YR-- Most players develop more power over time, not less-- Joe has done it once, and will likely never come close to that number again. The RBI stat has largely been discounted by modern day stat-hounds as a statistic of random/lucky opportunities, I still don't think it properly accounts for "timely hitting"- IE, Puck averaged 96 RBI/yr for his career on many more bad teams and bad hitters batting in front of him, Mauer has averaged only 69 RBI/yr, with some very good plate protection behind him. Runs scored is valued by stat-hounds, Kirby averaged 89/year, Mauer has averaged only 75/year. Career SLG%: Puck-477/Mauer-469.

 

And that gets me to the intangible advantages, and Puck proved in his career that he was ready and willing to be the team leader- still waiting for Joe to step up to the plate, I hope it happens, but I remain doubtful.

[DaveW]

Kirby's approach at the plate was "the anti-Joe Mauer". I don't know if there are splits for Puckett, but he was a very good "bad ball" hitter. When asked what his hitting philosophy was, he stated that he didn't have a philosophy, "I just go up there hackin'". His BB% is close to Ben Revere's.

 

You are largely correct about tangibles, although the last 10 years of Puck's career, when he converted himself to a power player, he averaged 20.3 HRs/YR-- Most players develop more power over time, not less-- Joe has done it once, and will likely never come close to that number again. The RBI stat has largely been discounted by modern day stat-hounds as a statistic of random/lucky opportunities, I still don't think it properly accounts for "timely hitting"- IE, Puck averaged 96 RBI/yr for his career on many more bad teams and bad hitters batting in front of him, Mauer has averaged only 69 RBI/yr, with some very good plate protection behind him. Runs scored is valued by stat-hounds, Kirby averaged 89/year, Mauer has averaged only 75/year.

 

And that gets me to the intangible advantages, and Puck proved in his career that he was ready and willing to be the team leader- still waiting for Joe to step up to the plate, I hope it happens, but I remain doubtful.

Did you really bring RBI's and Runs into this conversation?

 

"Runs scored" is not valued by stat hounds because it is mostly dependent on what your teammates do, just like RBIs. you might be thinking of weighted runs created (or wRC+) in that case Mauer in fact leads Puckett with a 133 to 122 score.

[cr9617]

If Joe Mauer can stay relatively healthy for the next 7 or so years he will goto the hall of fame. Since he already doesn't rely on home runs or speed to obtain his very good .874 Career OPS there is no reason why he can't continue to put up .860-.900 OPS seasons until he is 35 or so.

 

Just take a look at his top 10 similarity scores through age 28 on Baseball Reference:

 

1. Mickey Cochrane (Hall of Famer)

2. Bill Dickey (Hall of Famer)

3. Jason Kendall (Kendall was quite good for his first 5-6 years)

4. Yoggi Berra (Hall of Famer)

5. Victor Martinez

6. Jose Vidro

7. Gary Carter (Hall of Famer)

8. Derek Jeter (Future hall of famer)

9. Nomar (Was on his way to a HOF career before he broke down)

10. Charlie Gehringer (hall of famer)

 

Also, Mauer is putting up very similar numbers as Rod Carew did while he was a Twin (higher OPS, slightly lower OPS+), and he has done all of this playing the most demanding position on the field (the majority of the time), oh and he plays that position extremely well often being cited as one of the best defensive catchers in the game.

 

Mauer has already placed him self somewhere in the top 5 Twins of all time (I place him above Olivia, and close to equal to Puckett and Carew) and an argument could be made that he will end up the 2nd best Twin of all time by the end of this contract.

 

So what does all of this suggest?

 

If you hate Mauer, you are basically a fair weather fan/brain dead moron. Yes, 23MM is a lot of money, it would have been nice if they could have gotten him on board for 18MM-20MM a season, but for hall of fame production I will take that contract any day.

If you mindlessly protect Joe Mauer at every turn, you are basically a Sid Hartman simpleton type that can't think on his own.

 

BTW..I don't hate Joe Mauer. I just hate everything he represents, that's all. He just isn't worth anything near 23 mill per year for 8 years. There are a lot of guys in the league that can a game with one swing of the bat, and he's not one of them.

[Riverbrian]

Bill Smith: Ron, Good to see you... I'm looking forward to getting a deal done right now. Our people have spent a lot of time looking at the situation and we love Joe and want to see him in a Twins Uniform for a long time. I have prepared a very generous offer for you to take a look at. (slides piece of paper across the desk)

 

Ron Shapiro: This says... 8 Years at 10 million per? He's the American League MVP! This is the offer?

 

Bill Smith: Well... I know our scouts and evaluators have always projected that Joe will someday become a power hitter capable of 20 plus homers a year and I know he hit 28 in the past year despite missing all of April.

 

Ron Shapiro... Don't forget his OPS over one thousand.

 

Bill Smith: I'm not sure what you mean by that Ron... It's impossible to bat over one thousand... Joe hit .365... So let's keep the discussion grounded in reality. (Ron Shapiro just stares... not sure what to say)

 

Ron Shapiro: Bill... It's a combination of... (Bill Cuts him off)

 

Bill Smith: Ron... I know our scouts have projected Joe to be a bigger power hitter and it looks like that is coming true... However, Michael J. Fox has come back from the future and presented us with an evaluation from Fan Graphs that says Joe is going to be worth 10 Million a year in 2012.

 

Ron Shapiro: Fan Graphs?

 

Bill Smith: Yeah... I don't know what Fan Graphs is either but Michael J. Fox was pretty excited about it. He's was shaking in excitement. Could barely get the words out.

 

Ron Shapiro: I'll take this to Joe but I should say that we are under the impression that he will be paid a lot more by other clubs when his contract expires next year. I'm not sure that 10 million for that period of time makes sense.

 

Bill Smith: You gotta consider the hometown discount thing-a-ma-job... Don't ya... Joe does want to stay in Minnesota.

 

Ron Shapiro: He does... This is home... He wants to be a Twin for life... However, the Players Association will throw watermelons at him if he signs under value to this degree.

 

Bill Smith: How far off are we?

 

Ron Shapiro: Well the Yankees paid Teixeira 180 million for 8 years.

 

Bill Smith: We are not the Yankees!

 

Ron Shapiro: Yeah but the Yankees are the Yankees and they have my phone number.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Kirby's approach at the plate was "the anti-Joe Mauer". I don't know if there are splits for Puckett, but he was a very good "bad ball" hitter. When asked what his hitting philosophy was, he stated that he didn't have a philosophy, "I just go up there hackin'". His BB% is close to Ben Revere's.

 

You are largely correct about tangibles, although the last 10 years of Puck's career, when he converted himself to a power player, he averaged 20.3 HRs/YR-- Most players develop more power over time, not less-- Joe has done it once, and will likely never come close to that number again. The RBI stat has largely been discounted by modern day stat-hounds as a statistic of random/lucky opportunities, I still don't think it properly accounts for "timely hitting"- IE, Puck averaged 96 RBI/yr for his career on many more bad teams and bad hitters batting in front of him, Mauer has averaged only 69 RBI/yr, with some very good plate protection behind him. Runs scored is valued by stat-hounds, Kirby averaged 89/year, Mauer has averaged only 75/year.

 

And that gets me to the intangible advantages, and Puck proved in his career that he was ready and willing to be the team leader- still waiting for Joe to step up to the plate, I hope it happens, but I remain doubtful.

Runs scored aren't valued by stat hounds. They're the other side of the RBI coin, largely dependent on what others do behind you and little to do with your own play past "you got on base". Mauer is quite a bit better at getting on base than Puckett. It's not his fault the guys behind him aren't driving him home.

 

As for RBIs, well... You're just wrong on that account. Here are the career splits for Mauer and Puckett.

 

Mauer:

RISP: .953 OPS

Men On: .917 OPS

 

Puckett:

RISP: 879 OPS

Men On: .874 OPS

 

Naturally, Mauer also has a much better OBP in those situations.

 

As for "team leaders", I don't buy into that very much (or at all, really). A single player can only do so much. Puckett had great playoff moments for sure but so much of that is luck and timing in a SSS that I can't put much weight in it (and it's not as if Mauer hasn't had his shining moments in critical situations).

[DaveW]

If you mindlessly protect Joe Mauer at every turn, you are basically a Sid Hartman simpleton type that can't think on his own.

 

BTW..I don't hate Joe Mauer. I just hate everything he represents, that's all. He just isn't worth anything near 23 mill per year for 8 years. There are a lot of guys in the league that can a game with one swing of the bat, and he's not one of them.

So I point out statistical evidence stating that Mauer is one of the best 5 players in the history of the franchise, and that if he stays healthy he will be a hall of famer, you rebuttal with calling me Sid Hartman and claim since Mauer is not a home run hitter he is not a good ball player and I am the simpleton?

 

Neat.

[old nurse]

I think if the Twins had a decent pitching staff and were in contention nobody would care what his salary was nor that he sold shampoo and beer on the side. Winning cures a lot grumbling. As a career his splits would indicate he is about the same home or away so you can't really say 6 years of the Metrodome inflated his numbers.

y

 

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No one ball player is ever worth a quarter of the team's payroll unless the farm system is cranking out two decent players a year. The Twins are not doing the latter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you mindlessly protect Joe Mauer at every turn, you are basically a Sid Hartman simpleton type that can't think on his own.

 

BTW..I don't hate Joe Mauer. I just hate everything he represents, that's all. He just isn't worth anything near 23 mill per year for 8 years. There are a lot of guys in the league that can a game with one swing of the bat, and he's not one of them.

Riiiiiight. We're "mindlessly protecting" Joe by saying that he's a very, very good baseball player and backing that up with statistics and player comps that show he is, in fact, a very, very good baseball player.

 

Objectively looking at the situation, I'd say Dave and I are doing the exact opposite of what you just said.

[Riverbrian]

BTW..I don't hate Joe Mauer. I just hate everything he represents, that's all. He just isn't worth anything near 23 mill per year for 8 years. There are a lot of guys in the league that can a game with one swing of the bat, and he's not one of them.

But he was worth that type of Money at the time. The Twins didn't set the pay scale. The Yankees and the Red Sox and the teams that shop Free Agent's R Us set the pay scale.

 

Mauer was Worth 23 Million at the time... Do you really expect Joe Mauer to settle for a lower figure to stay in Minnesota? That would be stupid?

 

The only thing the Twins could have done differently is wait until the end of his contract to negotiate a contract and maybe his 2010 year would have brought the value down but that's a real big maybe.

 

2009 was a huge year and if he repeats it in 2010. That 23 Million becomes much larger and now you have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox to retain him.

 

I think it's possible that Bill Smith made some mistakes during his regime. Joe Mauer's Contract was pretty much a no brainer at the time. It only looks bad using that 20-20 hindsight thing.

 

Don't hate Mauer... Hate the Yankees... That's what I do... and it feels much better to hate the Yankees BTW.

 

The Yankees are perhaps the most obvious example of why salaries are where they are. They out bid teams for the services of players and that drives the prices up.

[darin617]

Joe is now 5th in the AL in batting and 1st in OBP.

 

He is also 2nd among all catchers in BA, 2B, OBP, and OPS (thanks to the currently godlike Carlos Ruiz). He is 3rd in walks and... wait for it... AB!

 

C'mon haters, bring it on!

Don't forget the 4 Home runs. Yea take that all you haters, now would someone please get him a refill of whatever he took in 2009 so he can at least get to double figures in HR's this season.

[jokin]

Runs scored aren't valued by stat hounds. They're the other side of the RBI coin, largely dependent on what others do behind you and little to do with your own play past "you got on base". Mauer is quite a bit better at getting on base than Puckett. It's not his fault the guys behind him aren't driving him home.

 

As for RBIs, well... You're just wrong on that account. Here are the career splits for Mauer and Puckett.

 

Mauer:

RISP: .953 OPS

Men On: .917 OPS

 

Puckett:

RISP: 879 OPS

Men On: .874 OPS

 

Naturally, Mauer also has a much better OBP in those situations.

 

As for "team leaders", I don't buy into that very much (or at all, really). A single player can only do so much. Puckett had great playoff moments for sure but so much of that is luck and timing in a SSS that I can't put much weight in it (and it's not as if Mauer hasn't had his shining moments in critical situations).

Runs scored is partly a reflection on what you do once you're on base (advancing via steal, hit, "taking the extra base", WP/PB, etc.), and partly by how many HRs you hit, as well as who is hitting behind you, and Mauer has had a series of great hitters behind him, probably who hit at a higher level than those behind Puck, so yes, it is partly Mauer's fault and to Puck's credit.

 

Regarding RBIs/RISP-- Fine, I am aware of this stat as it is front and center regarding Mauer's performance all the time- this is what is so confounding about Mauer's RISP numbers while batting in the 3 spot. Crunch the numbers around the league who bat #3 which is a premier RBI spot in the order, and year after year Mauer is in the bottom half for RBI. There are many factors that come into play, but you can't simply say it was because Puckett played in more games that he has . Both batted largely in the same spot in the order, Puck averaged 149 games/yr and Mauer averaged 134 games/yr with that huge differential in average RBI/yr, far greater than the 15 less games played. This suggests there are other factors with RISP that have to account for this difference- IE, how many of Joe's hits with RISP actually drive in a runner, and what is the SLG% for both with RISP? Plus, what is the value of Runs Created when not in RISP situations?

[jokin]

Riiiiiight. We're "mindlessly protecting" Joe by saying that he's a very, very good baseball player and backing that up with statistics and player comps that show he is, in fact, a very, very good baseball player.

 

Objectively looking at the situation, I'd say Dave and I are doing the exact opposite of what you just said.

On this basic fact, I am in full agreement.

 

I think where some of the disagreement comes is that I would proffer that all Twins fans have an investment in seeing that this contract "investment" made by the Twins gets a maximum return on capital- on Joe- and what and how his role on the team best benefits the Twins in getting back to making serious runs at the Series on an annual basis.

[Riverbrian]

In Comparison with production around the league... His numbers are not worth 23 million a year. In Comparison... If Mike Trout is worth what he is making... Albert Pujols is worth less!

 

He is being paid 23 million a year because he was worth probably more than 23 million a year when he signed the contract and that value was set by what the Market will pay him and the Market would have paid him!

 

Comparing him to #3 hitters around the league should have nothing to do with anything! Comparing his numbers to 1st basemen or Catchers and saying his position determines his value and then trying to determine the value of his contract in retrospect has nothing to do with anything!

 

The Twins paid him 23 million and once that is done. He bats where he bats in the context of his team and he plays whatever position he plays in the context of his team!

[John Bonnes]

Joe Mauer would have received more than $181m on the open market. The Yankees, Red Sox, and other large market teams were absolutely clamoring to find a good catcher in 2009. Posada was on his way out. Varitek was 150 years old. Mauer would have received Pujols-type money from one of those teams.

My best guess is that he might have cleared over $181M, but I think it would have been in the ballpark. $23M/year IS right around Pujolsish money at the time, and that long of a deal (which extended onto his earlier deal, not ripping up the last year) was a very long deal for a catcher.

 

The other issue is that he would have been a free agent after 2010, not 2009. He didn't have as great a year in 2010 and he ended the season really hurt. There's no way to replay 2010 if he's in a contract year, and he may not have ended up the season hurt, but he still would have played it in Target Field.

 

I guess my point is that there was very little hometown discount, if any applied, and I said so at the time. That doesn't mean he's a bad guy, just a shrewd negotiator. If he would have given a big home town discount - say $20M/year instead of $23M - I'm not sure people would be any less critical right now.

 

And there is a reason for that. This winner's curse for this sort of a deal necessitates: you're overpaying. There are 30 teams that are determining your value, but your value isn't the average of what they come up with. It's the value that the most desperate of them comes up with. You can argue whether it is an error giving enormous money to a superstar. But the bigger error is in thinking that a deal like that - and this includes all the talk about the contract Hamels or Grienke is going to get - is EVER going to be worth what is being paid. It's not going to, almost by design.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Runs scored is partly a reflection on what you do once you're on base (advancing via steal, hit, "taking the extra base", WP/PB, etc.), and partly by how many HRs you hit, as well as who is hitting behind you, and Mauer has had a series of great hitters behind him, probably who hit at a higher level than those behind Puck, so yes, it is partly Mauer's fault and to Puck's credit.

 

Regarding RBIs/RISP-- Fine, I am aware of this stat as it is front and center regarding Mauer's performance all the time- this is what is so confounding about Mauer's RISP numbers while batting in the 3 spot. Crunch the numbers around the league who bat #3 which is a premier RBI spot in the order, and year after year Mauer is in the bottom half for RBI. There are many factors that come into play, but you can't simply say it was because Puckett played in more games that he has . Both batted largely in the same spot in the order, Puck averaged 149 games/yr and Mauer averaged 134 games/yr with that huge differential in average RBI/yr, far greater than the 15 less games played. This suggests there are other factors with RISP that have to account for this difference- IE, how many of Joe's hits with RISP actually drive in a runner, and what is the SLG% for both with RISP?

His SLG is on par with Puckett, a bit higher IIRC without looking at the stats again.

 

As for runs scored, people really underrate what Kent Hrbek brought with the stick behind Puckett. Kent was essentially a healthier version of Justin Morneau who hit behind Puckett for Kirby's entire career.

 

Is Joe a little slower than Puckett and therefore doesn't go first-to-third as often, doesn't score from second as often,etc? I think that's a fair assumption.

 

On the other hand, Joe gets on base 4% more often than Kirby. That more than offsets the speed difference between the players.

[boney]

I'm not a stat guy by any means but I did do a seasonal comparison between the two not including Mauer's #s this year.

Kirby's averages are BA-318, HR-17, Doubles-34, RBI-90 and Hits-192

Mauer's averages are BA-324. HR-10, Doubles-27, RBI-66 and Hits-137

 

I know these aren't per ab #s but you can also throw in Kirby's leadership, durability and two rings. I like Joe but (IMO) he's got a long way to go to be put in Kirby's league. jmo

[gunnarthor]

My best guess is that he might have cleared over $181M, but I think it would have been in the ballpark. $23M/year IS right around Pujolsish money at the time, and that long of a deal (which extended onto his earlier deal, not ripping up the last year) was a very long deal for a catcher.

 

The other issue is that he would have been a free agent after 2010, not 2009. He didn't have as great a year in 2010 and he ended the season really hurt. There's no way to replay 2010 if he's in a contract year, and he may not have ended up the season hurt, but he still would have played it in Target Field.

Gotta disagree with you John. He had a solid 2010 season, not as good as 2009 but still very good - arguably his second or third best year. For comparison, while it was a viewed as a down year, he still had a higer OPS+ that year than the Teixeira, ARod, David Ortiz, Pedroia etc. And that doesn't even attempt to consider his defensive value. That offseason saw Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth get stupid money. Yanks, Tigers and Red Sox were all looking for a catcher. (As an aside, can you imagine Mauer playing fulltime at Fenway? His inside outside swing would pepper the monster and all those outs would be base hits there). One of those three teams (or the Nats or someone else) would've flown over the 8/200 mark for him.

 

And I still think people underestimate his offense. He's a great hitter, even for a first baseman. His career OPS+ (only an offensive stat) is highter than Teixeira, Morneau, David Wright, HanRam, Youk etc. While we are mentioning that he is playing more 1B/DH this year, he's usually playing them when he's banged up a bit. If he was a fulltime 1B or DH, I'd expect his OPS+ to increase with the decrease of his catching duties.

[cr9617]

So I point out statistical evidence stating that Mauer is one of the best 5 players in the history of the franchise, and that if he stays healthy he will be a hall of famer, you rebuttal with calling me Sid Hartman and claim since Mauer is not a home run hitter he is not a good ball player and I am the simpleton?

 

Neat.

I didn't call you Sid Hartman.

 

I compared your statement about Mauer haters to those who refuse to criticize him, regardless of how much he gets paid, what position he plays, how soft he is, or how much of a clubhouse guy he isn't.

 

Maybe I should have rephrased my point.

[one_eyed_jack]

There's too much hand-wringing over Mauer's contract. Is he worth $23 million? No, put paying him what he's worth was never an option. The Twins had 3 choices:

 

1) Overpay him - it's a fantasy to think we could have signed him for much less than we did. A player of that caliber hits the open market, someone will give him stupid money.

2) Trade him after '09 (a la Santana)

3) Let him walk after '10 (a la Hunter)

 

2 and 3 were simply not realistic options given circumstances with Joe's popularity and the pending move to Target Field, so we went with 1, which, ironically, was the exact type of move Twins fans spent years about the team not making.

 

Joe will probably never lead the league in home runs.

 

And while I'm not close enough to the situation to really question his leadership, he does come across as a guy who's a sheep, not a shepherd.

 

But the guy can do some things that very few others can, and has a good chance of ending up in Cooperstown one day. The 'fans' who do nothing but rip on him would be wise to try and enjoy him for what he is instead of always lamenting what he isn't, because he's a special player, and you don't see many like him.

[CDog]

I didn't call you Sid Hartman.

 

I compared your statement about Mauer haters to those who refuse to criticize him, regardless of how much he gets paid, what position he plays, how soft he is, or how much of a clubhouse guy he isn't.

 

Maybe I should have rephrased my point.

Or you shouldn't use 50% categories to criticize that are you simply basing on things in your imagination. Perhaps we should compare to Roy Hobbs' stats?

[Curt]

Everyone does realize that Puck signed a three year deal for $9 million, he was the most expensive player in history at that point. Mauer not.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

If Mauer continues what he does best and can break 10HRs I will be completely satisfied.

[twinzgrl]

It's great to see Joe in the top five BA's again. I'd put money on him to win another batting title. I'm glad he's a Twin and an All-Star. Go Joe!

[fatbeer]

In Mauers defense Wade Boggs Ichiro and Tony Gwynn have combined for 1 20+ HR season

[mnfireman]

BTW, Mauer homered today.

[Bark's Lounge]

BTW, Mauer homered today.

nope... yesterday

[Bark's Lounge]

In Mauers defense Wade Boggs Ichiro and Tony Gwynn have combined for 1 20+ HR season

Good comparison. All HOFer's except for Ichiro who is a shoe in when his time comes.

 

FDG opened up a can of worms when he started this thread.

 

The Mauer contract/production talk is old, stale and boring.

 

It seems apparent that he has to have a 2009 season every year for people to pause their mob mentality and quench their thirst for his blood.

 

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[MWLFan]

Yawn...when is the next Promote Sano thread? I miss those thrilling discussions. With you Barks.

[CDog]

If you hate Mauer, you are basically a fair weather fan/brain dead moron.

This sentence got me thinking about something I once pondered probably entirely too much once upon a time. And that's the psychology of the fan that loves to bag on the superstar athlete. I never could understand why a person who purports to be a fan of a game and even a particular team would go on and on and on at times about how much they despise someone who is fantastic at that game (and often for their team) for no apparent reason. During the time I really gave this a lot of consideration, I tried to notice what it was people had to say. The overwhelming thing I kept seeing and hearing and reading was essentially an attempt to inflate themselves in the way of the, "Back in my day..." personality. The "I'd be so much tougher/better/etc" if I were him or the "my expectations are so high" to imply that they're somehow morally superior. Naturally, they don't often quite phrase it exactly that way, but the motivation appeared the same an awful lot.

 

I guess you may be putting that in the brain dead moron category.