Article: TD Midseason Top Prospects: #9 Max Kepler

[Parker Hageman]

When the Minnesota Twins signed the toolsy, projectable 16-year-old Max Kepler out of Germany, they received a player with promise and potential that was so raw he could be on the menu at a sushi joint. Kepler's development has been slow, particularly in the power department where his six-foot-four frame was forecast by Twins evaluators to hit the ball a long way, but judging from his 2015 season thus far he appears to have a solid future ahead.Age: 22 (DOB: 02/10/1993)

2015 Stats (A+/AA): 201 PA, .322/.383/.507 (891 OPS), 3 HR, 5 3B, 19 2B, 28/21 K/BB

ETA: 2016

2014 Preseason Ranking: N/A -- 2015 Preseason Ranking: 12th

 

Intro

 

Kepler has been in the Twins system since 2009 when he signed for $800,000 as a teenager. It has been a slow climb for the outfielder/first baseman, who is now in his sixth season in the minors. Limited by an elbow injury in 2013, he witnessed his numbers tumble in Cedar Rapids. Kepler cited the fact that his top hand was weakened by the long rehabilitation process as a reason he struggled to drive the ball. That continued into the 2014 season at High-A in the Florida State League (a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment) as he started slow again but finished with a .307/.367/.451 line in his final 170 plate appearances after July 4th, signaling that his arm might finally be 100 percent again.

 

What’s To Like

 

This.

 

 

That is an athletic swing that can generate plenty of hard hit balls. Since May 10, Kepler has compiled a .364/.430/.598 line in 149 plate appearances including 24 extra base hits and a well-balanced 16/17 walks-to-strikeouts ratio.

 

"I've been seeing the ball pretty well," Kepler told MiLB.com's Robert Emrich recently. "I feel like I'm getting my foot down early, load and getting all that stuff out of the way, so I don't have much to think about; it's all coming fluid. All I have to do is see the ball, hit the ball, and it's working for me right now.

 

While his power has not manifested in home runs, the gap power has resulted in an overall sluggng that is third in the Southern League behind Cubs' prospect Kyle Schwarber (who has since been promoted to the majors) and the Twins' powerhouse Adam Brett Walker.

 

What’s Left To Work On

 

Consistent production against left-handed pitching would serve him well.

 

In 2011 he actually fared better against the sinister hurlers, hitting .351 in 45 plate appearances. When asked about his experience against lefties that season, Kepler told Hein News in a 2011 interview that "I always have the thought in the back of my head that lefty versus lefty is going to be tough. So I don’t know. Maybe I am more focused and stay more inside against lefties. But I seem to hit ‘em well.'

 

But that was not always be the case. In 2013, perhaps because of the weakened arm strength, he hit just .117 against lefties, raising concerns that he might not be geared towards handling the better left-handed competition as he ascended the ranks. Nevertheless, that improved to .273 in 2014 and he is hitting at a robust .333 clip against them this year.

 

"I think for some reason I've always thought that lefties are tougher to face and stuff, and I got rid of that thought this year," Kepler told Emrich last week. "It's just a ball coming from a different angle. I'm going to stick with that; it's working right now."

 

Finding him a position in the field would be useful as well. Evaluators have said his outfield instincts have played well but with his arm strength he may be more suited for left field over right. He's spent the bulk of his time playing first base with Chattanooga this year which feels like a crowded pipeline at the major league level.

 

What's Next?

 

Rochester is the next logical step for the prospect as their outfield depth has been looted by the parent club and the first base position could use some help.

 

Beyond this year is the real question. Provided Kepler can find a position, the Twins have few left-handed hitters in the system who can hit for power, making him a valuable commodity. Unfortunately there are two in Oswaldo Arcia (24) and Eddie Rosario (23) that qualify and are ahead of him on the depth chart, potentially blocking his path to Minnesota. Kepler's almost too athletic for first and lacks the home run power that should be associated with playing that position (oh, the Joe Mauer-laced irony).

 

If he continues to hit like he has been, the Twins will need to make some serious decisions.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Let's be honest, Arcia isn't an outfielder. He has the potential to be a very good hitter with lots of lefty power, but his real position is DH.  Kepler's hitting has less of a track record, but his upside value as a corner outfielder is higher than Arcia's, given his ability to provide at least above average defense (not to mention Kepler's ability to steal a few bases). Arcia's atrocious defense depletes his offensive upside. Ideally, we would move Arcia to DH and Vargas to 1B. If Mauer manages to rebound, then we'd have a logjam of Arcia and Vargas at DH, but I think Arcia should be taken out of the medium and long-term equation in the OF. There are too many other great options that provide superior defense, including Kepler, Rosario, Walker, Hicks and Harrison.  Not all of them will likely succeed at AAA and the majors, but it is pretty likely that at least 2 out of 5 will.

[nytwinsfan]

Also, my ranking would go:

 

1. Sano

2. Berrios

3. Jay

4. Polanco

5. Kepler

6. Gordon

7. Meyer

8. Walker

9. Gonsalves

10. Stewart

11. Hu

12. Harrison

13. Rogers

14. Minier

15. Chargois

16. Z. Jones

17. L. Diaz

18. Booser

19. Burdi

20. Turner

21. Reed

22. Garver

23. K. Cody

24. Thorpe

25. Achter

26. Duffey

27. B. Peterson

28. Swim

29. Ynoa

30. W. Javier(coming soon)

[twinssouth]

Based on what I saw, Kepler has arrived, going from promising to productive. In his last 10 games, his BA is an obscene 529. His numbers are off the charts; compare them to Buxton and Sano

 

Kepler, OBP 400, SLG 557, BA 341

Buxton, OBP 351, SLG 489, BA 283

Sano, OBP 349, SLG 486, BA 248

 

All 3 guys have dealt with injuries and yet Max is out producing them. His high average is consistent with his time in AFL.

 

The last 2 years, the Twins have called up from AA, Vargas, Santana, Polanco, Buxton. Kepler needs to be in this discussion. In my opinion, he's surpassed Hicks and Arcia defensively and now hitting lefties. The other night, Tomshaw the lefty was spinning off speed and Kepler was nailing the pitches. He's the best player on the Lookouts, he's on the 40 man and should have a call up for outfield and 1st base, spot starting Mauer.

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

Kepler, Rosario, Walker, Hicks and Harrison.  Not all of them will likely succeed at AAA and the majors, but it is pretty likely that at least 2 out of 5 will.

 

I don't agree about the likelihood that 2 of the 5 will succeed. Walker has almost no chance, Hicks is already a bust, Rosario has severe plate discipline problems, Harrison lacks range and power, Kepler lacks power.

 

I do think 1 of the 5 will succeed, probably Kepler, with Hicks being a 4th OF and the other three washing out.

[drjim]

 

I don't agree about the likelihood that 2 of the 5 will succeed. Walker has almost no chance, Hicks is already a bust, Rosario has severe plate discipline problems, Harrison lacks range and power, Kepler lacks power.

 

I do think 1 of the 5 will succeed, probably Kepler, with Hicks being a 4th OF and the other three washing out.

 

I'm personally more bullish on Rosario. He will never be a high bb guy, but his k rate has been creeping down. Not an ideal player, but a low bb/ lowish k guy can survive when they have a decent hit tool and bring speed and d to the table as well.

 

I generally agree with your take on the other 4 as likely outcomes.

[Mike Sixel]

Kepler should be in AAA now. What could they be waiting for, exactly? "consistency"?

[nytwinsfan]

 

I don't agree about the likelihood that 2 of the 5 will succeed. Walker has almost no chance, Hicks is already a bust, Rosario has severe plate discipline problems, Harrison lacks range and power, Kepler lacks power.

 

I do think 1 of the 5 will succeed, probably Kepler, with Hicks being a 4th OF and the other three washing out.

I'll take that bet. Hicks is not already a bust. At the very least he is likely to succeed as a platoon bat/4th outfielder. Rosario has some plate discipline problems, but he has the ability, and the coaching to improve them. Kepler lacks HR power, but not power. HRs are great, don't get me wrong, but a bunch of doubles and triples, especially with a high BA and OBP can make up for few HR. I know that isn't conventional wisdom, but value-wise it is true. So I don't agree with that. And he is barely 22 and likely to gain 10-20 pounds of muscle in the next 3 to 4 years, hopefully turning some of those doubles and triples into bombs. Walker has a huge strikeout problem, but has an outside chance of overcoming that. I think Kepler and Rosario are the most likely, but I think all five have a shot. When you add up those probabilities across the five, I think they equal to a greater than 50% chance that at least two will be starting or frequently playing outfielders.

Edited June 19, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Kepler should be in AAA now. What could they be waiting for, exactly? "consistency"?

I honestly think they are waiting for the all star break, although now that they clinched a playoff position Kepler might be sent to AAA tomorrow.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Kepler should be in AAA now. What could they be waiting for, exactly? "consistency"?

 

The Lookouts just clinched a Southern League playoff berth last night, so I would expect it won't be long... though I also wouldn't be surprised if he comes straight up from AA too.

[drjim]

Wait, a guy has 50 games in AA, has a nice stretch and people want him promoted. That's a new one.

 

I could be wrong as soon as tomorrow, but with his age, background, and the fact he gets hurt basically every year, I would be surprised if he makes it out of AA this year.

[Monkeypaws]

He sure is a top prospect now I would think.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see him at the parent club this year, but I'd think if he keeps destroying AA as he has that he'll be in Rochester at some point. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

When you add up those probabilities across the five, I think they equal to a greater than 50% chance that at least two will be starting or frequently playing outfielders.

 

Well there are different definitions of success. To me, a 4th outfielder is not a success story for a former top prospect. And regardless of expectations, 4th outfielders are easy to find. Quality starting players are not easy to find.

 

Batting skills are not always easy to improve. Plate discipline involves a lot of natural ability just like most things in sports... vision, reaction time, etc. No amount of hard work can really overcome deficiencies in key areas.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm personally more bullish on Rosario. He will never be a high bb guy, but his k rate has been creeping down. Not an ideal player, but a low bb/ lowish k guy can survive when they have a decent hit tool and bring speed and d to the table as well.

 

I generally agree with your take on the other 4 as likely outcomes.

 

I agree, I would have had him lower on the list before his callup, but dispite his low BB rate, he looks like he can hit breaking balls.  None of the other youngsters have shown that ability yet.

[nicksaviking]

 

Wait, a guy has 50 games in AA, has a nice stretch and people want him promoted. That's a new one.

 

I could be wrong as soon as tomorrow, but with his age, background, and the fact he gets hurt basically every year, I would be surprised if he makes it out of AA this year.

 

Max has been a one-level-per-year guy until this year.  He started this season on Ft. Myers, I also have a hard time seeing him get a MLB call up unless it's September (he's already on the 40-man after all).

 

I think his advanced approach at the plate probably does get him a promotion to Rochester though.  Arcia, Danial Ortiz and Eric Farris are the starting OF there.  If the organization isn/t picky about the Rochester OF defense, Kepler could probably bump the 29-year-old Farris.

Edited June 19, 2015 by nicksaviking

[troyhobbs]

 

so raw he could be on the menu at a sushi joint

Nice

[Steve Lein]

A bit surprised Kepler has only climbed to #9, but I've always been higher on him then most. He's outplayed everybody on that talented Lookouts roster, and that included Buxton while he was there. Love Max, but he's likely a guy to go to AAA first instead of straight to the majors, I think. September seems logical for him this year, but who knows what else might happen.

[Seth Stohs]

 

A bit surprised Kepler has only climbed to #9, but I've always been higher on him then most. He's outplayed everybody on that talented Lookouts roster, and that included Buxton while he was there. Love Max, but he's likely a guy to go to AAA first instead of straight to the majors, I think. September seems logical for him this year, but who knows what else might happen.

 

These rankings were arrived at a week ago. Kepler jumped about 5-6 spots to get to 9, but I was just mentioning this morning that if we all voted today, he could be as high as 4-5.

 

I also think that he's likely to go to AAA, but if there was a need, he now joins Sano and Polanco as guys who could get called up at any time.

[d-mac]

 

Also, my ranking would go:

 

1. Sano

2. Berrios

3. Jay

4. Polanco

5. Kepler

6. Gordon

7. Meyer

8. Walker

9. Gonsalves

10. Stewart

11. Hu

12. Harrison

13. Rogers

14. Minier

15. Chargois

16. Z. Jones

17. L. Diaz

18. Booser

19. Burdi

20. Turner

21. Reed

22. Garver

23. K. Cody

24. Thorpe

25. Achter

26. Duffey

27. B. Peterson

28. Swim

29. Ynoa

30. W. Javier(coming soon)

 

My midseason top 20 prospect list:

 

1. Sano

2. Berrios

3. Polanco

4. Kepler

5. Jay

6. Hu

7. Gonsalves

8. Meyer

9. Thorpe

10. Harrison

11. Walker

12. Stewart

13. Gordon

14. Minier

15. Diaz

16. Z. Jones

17. Rogers

18. Chargois

19. Burdi

20. Reed

[jokin]

 

 He's outplayed everybody on that talented Lookouts roster, and that included Buxton while he was there. 

 

 

Not sure that's true.  Hold on there, Cowboy!  

 

Let's remember that Kepler has been on some hot streaks this year, but  this latest one was AFTER Buxton was promoted.   Besides Buxton's elite-level defense, Buxton definitely outhit Kepler during the time they were on the team together,  here's the hit comp from 4/22  until the Buck call-up:

 

Buxton 4/22-6/12:

 

Slash .304/.372/.529/(.901)  ISO .225 wOBA .406 

 

Kepler 4/22-6/12:

 

Slash  .305/.361/.491/(.852)  ISO .186 wOBA .389 

 

Edited June 19, 2015 by jokin

[Steve Lein]

 

Not sure that's true.  Hold on there, Cowboy!  

 

Let's remember that Kepler has been on some hot streaks this year, but  this latest one was AFTER Buxton was promoted.   Besides Buxton's elite-level defense, Buxton definitely outhit Kepler during the time they were on the team together,  here's the hit comp from 4/22  until the Buck call-up:

 

Buxton 4/22-6/12:

 

Slash .304/.372/.529/(.901)  ISO .225 wOBA .406 

 

Kepler 4/22-6/12:

 

Slash  .305/.361/.491/(.852)  ISO .186 wOBA .389 

 

Kepler was still .305/.361/.491 the day Buxton was promoted with a .283/.351/.489.

 

I might concede a wash, haha!

[drjim]

I fear people are getting ahead of themselves on Gonsalves and especially Hu. Good prospects to have and doing fine, but questions on their stuff and whether success is more due to deception. Putting up numbers in A ball is certainly preferable to not putting up numbers, but the next step will really show. I trust scouting and stuff much more in A ball over numbers, in AA it begins to flip.

[DocBauer]

[Wait, a guy has 50 games in AA, has a nice stretch and people want him promoted. That's a new one.

 

I could be wrong as soon as tomorrow, but with his age, background, and the fact he gets hurt basically every year, I would be surprised if he makes it out of AA this year.]

 

Oh he'll be out of AA. He'll be at AAA within the next 15-614 days. Deservedly so. But because heis so talented, but also so young and has had the number of early injuries, I dont know that the Twins will push him to the ML any sooner than September. And really, your starting OF is pretty set at the moment. No need to push.

[Hrbowski]

I like the comp that Dan Gladden gave him, a young Justin Morneau.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I fear people are getting ahead of themselves on Gonsalves and especially Hu. Good prospects to have and doing fine, but questions on their stuff and whether success is more due to deception. Putting up numbers in A ball is certainly preferable to not putting up numbers, but the next step will really show. I trust scouting and stuff much more in A ball over numbers, in AA it begins to flip.

 

Well where do you want them ranked, in the 20s? They aren't elite prospects but they are better than minor league relievers, or position players that can't actually hit, etc. The Twins system isn't as deep as some posters seem to think.

 

Quote
Hrbowski, on 19 Jun 2015 - 4:39 PM, said:
I like the comp that Dan Gladden gave him, a young Justin Morneau.

 

 

Kepler has very little in common with Morneau as a hitter. Physical appearance maybe.

 

Edited June 19, 2015 by drivlikejehu

[drjim]

 

Well where do you want them ranked, in the 20s? They aren't elite prospects but they are better than minor league relievers, or position players that can't actually hit, etc. The Twins system isn't as deep as some posters seem to think.

 

I hadn't done as deep a dive when I posted that and you are certainly correct, not nearly as deep as it has been. It is still a top 10 at the moment and likely will remain so even if Sano graduates, but there has certainly been some graduations, some stalling and not enough emergence or replenishing.

 

I would personally go:

1. Sano

2. Berrios

3. Polanco

4. Kepler

5. Jay

6. Gordon

7. Stewart

8. Meyer

9. Gonsalves

10. Turner

11. Harrison

12. Walker

13. Hu

 

That is some meat on the top, followed by talented question marks, then some legit B-/C+ guys, followed by power relievers, upside guys in the low levels, and upper level depth. It has taken a step back but still a solid system. Could look better if some of the draftees or international guys in the rookie leagues show well.

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

I would personally go:

 

Some of those are hard to understand. I'll grant that opinions differ on Meyer. But Turner is not a good prospect at all. He's a younger Drew Butera. I don't see how he is top 30.

 

Hu is clearly a better prospect than Harrison and Walker, in my opinion. Harrison isn't good defensively and hasn't shown power in games. Walker hits AA mistakes but lacks the plate discipline to succeed in the Majors. I have him in the 25-30 range.

 

Gonsalves and Hu fit in the 6-10 range pretty comfortably.

[drjim]

 

Some of those are hard to understand. I'll grant that opinions differ on Meyer. But Turner is not a good prospect at all. He's a younger Drew Butera. I don't see how he is top 30.

 

Hu is clearly a better prospect than Harrison and Walker, in my opinion. Harrison isn't good defensively and hasn't shown power in games. Walker hits AA mistakes but lacks the plate discipline to succeed in the Majors. I have him in the 25-30 range.

 

Gonsalves and Hu fit in the 6-10 range pretty comfortably.

 

I generally agree Walker will struggle to make it, but he has a carrying tool basically unmatched in the system, so he deserves to be higher.

 

I give a lot of leeway to good defensive catchers. I'll give his bat one more year before I'm too critical.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I generally agree Walker will struggle to make it, but he has a carrying tool basically unmatched in the system, so he deserves to be higher.

 

I give a lot of leeway to good defensive catchers. I'll give his bat one more year before I'm too critical.

 

I only consider how a tool will play in the Majors. Walker is like a long drive champ who can't actually play golf. It's kind of interesting but shouldn't cloud your analysis.

 

Even if you want to give Turner some leeway, he's not the Twins #10 prospect. The Twins certainly wouldn't agree. No organization in baseball would rather have Turner than Hu, not to mention at least 20 other Twins prospects.

Edited June 19, 2015 by drivlikejehu