Miguel Sano How Soon Is Now?

[jokin]

Not a chance that Dougie was spouting some sort of "corporate line". He said it and he meant it. He's a reliable judge right now on the readiness of Sano, and if I recall, he basically said Sano would get chewed up and spit out right now. Hardly the kind of message one would send if one were obligated to pass along a "corporate line".

 

We can be confident that the Twins will see the question of MLB readiness and MLB need much much differently than us, though.

I saw the quotes, it certainly appeared that he was using Twins insiders as his source. He's not exactly my go-to guy for his Twins baseball expertise, his sources usually appear to be player agents, or "gift quotes" from Rob Antony, and perhaps on occasion, from Terry Ryan. Doesn't seem like a bad guy, but it does seem like he likes to hear the sound of his own voice.

[drjim]

 

Dougie was quoted extensively recently, I think, and made his view quite clear that both Sano and Buxton have things they need to master before they're ready to have success in MLB.

 

Jokin saw him once and disagrees.

[drjim]

 

He probably is a good judge, but he's paid to watch Twins baseball, I doubt he's presently and actively scouting Sano. I also don't think there is any reporter more tied into Terry Ryan, he gets quotes from him like they're candy and it's always Halloween. I can't imagine Wolfson is writting about Sano's readiness without getting input from Ryan or someone in the organization.

Not that Doogie/Ryan are neccisarily wrong.

 

I'm pretty sure the minor league manager has as much input as anyone on who gets promoted. Strikes me as a big part of their job.

[TRex]

 

He probably is a good judge, but he's paid to watch Twins baseball, I doubt he's presently and actively scouting Sano. 

We have heard several times that, indeed, the minor league coaches have to send in a scouting report after every single game. So I think there is no one in the world who scouts Sano more than Dougie.

 

Your statement suggests you would rather trust the scouting report on Sano's readiness from the Tennessee manager rather than the manager of your own team because it would be more independent. While an outside view can be nice, I think this is the singular most important decision requiring someone to understand the entirety of the organization.

[notoriousgod71]

 

 

 

You can't just give him a glove and say get after it in RF and I don't think we are going to give up on his defense this quick.

 

 

No kidding, he's no Bartlett.

[HitInAPinch]

Miguel has had a good month.  And he's still learning how to play a premium position in third base.  Why interfere with his development?   If he continues at this pace in AA, he get's an Aug-Sept call up as a reward for his hard work and improvement.  Next year, a taste of AAA. 

[Craig Arko]

Time to convert him to catcher.

[tobi0040]

If the Twins are still contending, what I see as the most plausible scenario is they promote Sano about 3-4 weeks before the end of the minor league season, which would be somewhere in the first or second week of August and he is the primary DH for the Twins. That way he is not learning a new position and not missing a ton of time at 3B defensively from a development standpoint. He would be with the Twins for 7-8 weeks and provide an upgrade. I think this approach strikes the balance of helping the big league club and not messing with Sano's development.

If we are out of contention, I see him coming up about the same timeframe. Maybe a little sooner and he splits some time at 3B with Plouffe and DH's when he is not at

[tobi0040]

 

Dougie was quoted extensively recently, I think, and made his view quite clear that both Sano and Buxton have things they need to master before they're ready to have success in MLB.

 

In fairness, this is the type of thing teams say and then two weeks later promote the guy.

 

I personally think Buxton can be successful right now in the big leagues. He will steal 40+ bases a year and provide plus defense. He has a good hit tool and his speed will constantly put pressure on defenses and get him enough extra bases that his slugging will be at least average right away.  We may all have a different definition of "success", but that meets that criteria for me.

[jokin]

Miguel has had a good month.  And he's still learning how to play a premium position in third base.  Why interfere with his development?

Because he's one of the Twins' premier talents who could be a difference maker for a pennant-contending team which is woefully short of power bats. The Twins DH's batted around .400 OPS after Vargas was sent down. Trevor Plouffe is currently in a massive June slump, 1 for 29, and hitting clean-up. It would be nice to have an active contingency plan that represents a potential upgrade at both spots when the first choices are either slumping, need time off, or represent a clear situational disadvantage.

[Linus]

I think one big misconception here is that if the Twins continue to be in contention, that call ups of top prospects are more likely.  The reality is the opposite - if they are still winning the Twins will go with veterans that have been in the big leagues before.

 

Nearly all prospects struggle when they first come up (even of Sano and Buxton quality) and a team fighting for a playoff spot is not going risk that.  So, if the thing you want to see most is Sano / Buxtion in the big leagues, better pray for a big losing streak or injuries (neither of which I am doing).

[jokin]

I think one big misconception here is that if the Twins continue to be in contention, that call ups of top prospects are more likely.  The reality is the opposite - if they are still winning the Twins will go with veterans that have been in the big leagues before.

 

Nearly all prospects struggle when they first come up (even of Sano and Buxton quality) and a team fighting for a playoff spot is not going risk that.  So, if the thing you want to see most is Sano / Buxtion in the big leagues, better pray for a big losing streak or injuries (neither of which I am doing).

Given the Twins current choice of veteran options, they are much more likely to continue the recent June mini-swoon, W-L 3-5/.324 team SLG .594 team OPS, without Sano, than with him. Yes, prospects are known to struggle when they first come up, and yet, we have recent examples of Santana, Vargas, and now Rosario, who hit the ground running as key lineup components, who all are evidence that it is worth a shot to see if a premier prospect, Miguel Sano, can duplicate the feat.

 

More evidence.... Houston has also slumped since May 31, going 3-6, and they've pulled the trigger on Corriea to help kick-start the Stros...

[Seth Stohs]

Sano and Buxton both mentioned in Big League Stew (on Yahoo Sports) as guys who could be called up soon. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Miguel has had a good month.  And he's still learning how to play a premium position in third base.  Why interfere with his development?   If he continues at this pace in AA, he get's an Aug-Sept call up as a reward for his hard work and improvement.  Next year, a taste of AAA. 

 

And play where, with Plouffe a top 10 3B for this year again, and likely next year?

[Loosey]

 

He probably is a good judge, but he's paid to watch Twins baseball, I doubt he's presently and actively scouting Sano. I also don't think there is any reporter more tied into Terry Ryan, he gets quotes from him like they're candy and it's always Halloween. I can't imagine Wolfson is writting about Sano's readiness without getting input from Ryan or someone in the organization.

Not that Doogie/Ryan are neccisarily wrong.

I think the Dougie he is referring to is Mientkiewicz, not Darren Wolfson. Dougie M is actively watching and teaching Sano on a daily basis.

[SwainZag]

 

And play where, with Plouffe a top 10 3B for this year again, and likely next year?

 

Trevor needs to start hitting again if we want to keep continuing to call him a Top 10 3B.  With his June swoon he is down to .245/.315/.425.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Trevor needs to start hitting again if we want to keep continuing to call him a Top 10 3B.  With his June swoon he is down to .245/.315/.425.

 

Seems unlikely he'll got 1 for the rest of the year.....

 

Even with his swoon, he's still got a 108wRC+, and is 10th overall in WAR........you just don't toss him aside, when he's actually good compared to the league, unlike 1B and DH.....

[SwainZag]

 

Seems unlikely he'll got 1 for the rest of the year.....

 

Even with his swoon, he's still got a 108wRC+, and is 10th overall in WAR........you just don't toss him aside, when he's actually good compared to the league, unlike 1B and DH.....

 

I'm not saying toss aside....I'm saying if he doesn't pick it up with the bat over the summer, the decision on Sano might become a lot clearer.

[spinowner]

 

Time to convert him to catcher.

Love the sarcasm!

[spinowner]

 

Because he's one of the Twins' premier talents who could be a difference maker for a pennant-contending team which is woefully short of power bats. The Twins DH's batted around .400 OPS after Vargas was sent down. Trevor Plouffe is currently in a massive June slump, 1 for 29, and hitting clean-up. It would be nice to have an active contingency plan that represents a potential upgrade at both spots when the first choices are either slumping, need time off, or represent a clear situational disadvantage.

The development of Buxton and Sano is more important than making the postseason in 2015. Not a universally shared opinion but the correct one in my mind. Unless there's an emergency they should be called up when they are ready and not before, regardless of the major league standings.

[Halsey Hall]

 

Seems unlikely he'll got 1 for the rest of the year.....

 

Even with his swoon, he's still got a 108wRC+, and is 10th overall in WAR........you just don't toss him aside, when he's actually good compared to the league, unlike 1B and DH.....

But he could go 0 for the next 10.  Like I've always said, poof isn't very good.  He's streaky and that's it.  His confidence is at zero right now, just like Danny Santana's, but he can't be sent down to find it.  We are stuck with him.  For now.......

[jokin]

Dave Cameron weighs in on the Super Two aspect in promoting top prospects for contending teams. Insert the "MN Twins" and "Miguel Sano" (and/or Buxton?) in place of the "NY Mets" and "Steven Matz", and you have a similar situation, vis a vis the Astros move in calling up Correia yesterday. Super Two considerations for first-time call-ups are fast fading away. Cameron begins his argument by quoting Joel Sherman:

 

" '... But their bigger short-term issue is assuring Matz does not become Super Two eligible. The top 22 percent of service time between two and three years do not have to wait until three completed seasons to become arbitration eligible. Thus, clubs keep down some of their better players to prevent them from qualifying in a few years. The Astros brought up their best prospect, shortstop Carlos Correa, on Monday, though the belief is the cutoff line is probably a week away, perhaps two just to be safe.

 

The first-place Astros are willing to gamble in a way the first-place Mets are not. They appear to be willing to wait until about July 1 to make sure...' "

 

He then refutes the notion of whether or not this is much of a gamble:

 

 

"Because the Super Two timeline is a moving target, there’s no clear line of demarcation that can be pointed to in real-time; the amount of days needed to qualify as a Super Two are only known in retrospect. But we can get a pretty decent sense of the range from past history, and helpfully, MLB Trade Rumors has been tracking the Super Two line for each of the last six years. From their records:

 

2014: 2.133

2013: 2.122

2012: 2.140

2011: 2.146

2010: 2.122

2009: 2.139

 

The numbers after the decimal reflect the number of days of service needed beyond two full years, so last year’s Super Two group had two full years and between 133 and 171 days of service, since 172 days of service counts as a full year. The number has dipped as low as 122 days a couple of times, but has generally been on the higher side, up near 140 days, which is what it is currently projected to be for this year’s class as well.

 

But it’s fair to say that anything in that 120-140 range makes a player a potential Super Two, and you probably need to come in under 120 days of service if you want to feel fairly safe about avoiding that tag with your top prospects. So, did the Astros really risk Super Two status with Correa, as Sherman asserted, rather than holding him down another “week or two” in order to ensure that he would miss the cut?

 

Let’s simply count the days. In every Major League regular season, there are 183 days of service, starting at Opening Day and finishing with the last day of the season. This year, Opening Day was April 5th and the season ends October 4th, so there were 26 available service days in April, 31 in May, 30 in June, 31 in July, 31 in August, 30 in September, and 4 in October.

 

The 57 service days available in April and May are gone, as are eight of the days from June’s total, so players who have been up since Opening Day have accrued 65 days of service this year, leaving 118 remaining on the year. Correa, who debuted yesterday, will end the year with 119 days of service; that’s three fewer than the lowest total of any Super Two cutoff line over the last six years. That was not a coincidence.

 

The Astros held Correa down just long enough to make it very likely that he’ll miss Super Two eligibility, and called him right in the sweet spot of when they can get the most value from him in 2015 at the lowest long-term cost possible. The Mets could call Matz up today, and likewise, he’d almost certainly be free and clear of Super Two status.

 

If they wait another week or two, as Sherman suggests they will, it won’t even be in question; the probability of Matz obtaining Super Two status will have moved from something like 0.1% down to 0.0%..."

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/steven-matz-the-mets-and-the-super-two-rule/

 

It appears that the circumstances in moving Sano up from this point forward will now be coming down to a pure positive readiness assessment coupled with "gambling" with the supplanting of an underperforming veteran (or more experienced prospect) by a brand new top prospect possibly playing out of position.

[tobi0040]

Here is one addtional scenario in August-ish (assuming contention)

 

Call up Sano and platoon the DH spot between Arcia and Sano.  Keep in mind that Sano's minor league season will be all but over. So should the concern of not playing 3B or only seeing lefties.  These would basically be bonus at bats.  The non-starting player would be your late inning bench bat.

 

Sano has always crushed lefties and Arcia righties. Arca actually had an OPS of .779 against righties this year even through his struggles. His career average is .807 against righties.

[jokin]

But he could go 0 for the next 10.  Like I've always said, poof isn't very good.  He's streaky and that's it.  His confidence is at zero right now, just like Danny Santana's, but he can't be sent down to find it.  We are stuck with him.  For now.......

Except you've entirely missed the point that even with his current 1-29 slump, he's still in the Top Ten in WAR for third basemen. As he was in 2014.

 

Comparing a multi-year vet to Santana is apples and oranges. The "Big Decision" on Plouffe vs. Sano is one day coming, but you can't just cast aside a key component (with an established track record of incremental year-over-year improvement) on a team with the best record in baseball on the basis of an 8 day slump at the beginning of June.

[gocgo]

Bringing up Sano now makes no sense.  Twins need a utility infielder.  At this point, Esco is the only SS, Dozier and Esco can play 2B, but that can't happen without a utility guy to play SS.  Plouffe may need a break at 3rd and Esco can do that, but, once again, no utility guy to fill in.  So, IF they are going to bring up an infielder, Sano is not the one.  Polanco...maybe!

[jokin]

Bringing up Sano now makes no sense.  Twins need a utility infielder.  At this point, Esco is the only SS, Dozier and Esco can play 2B, but that can't happen without a utility guy to play SS.  Plouffe may need a break at 3rd and Esco can do that, but, once again, no utility guy to fill in.  So, IF they are going to bring up an infielder, Sano is not the one.  Polanco...maybe!

For the time being, Nunez is the utility infielder, and by far, the position he's played the most is SS (172 games in his career, 20 games last year for the Twins). While far from ideal, he can play SS once a week for the time being, and he's already filled in ably 4 times at 3rd this year, and he could cover for Dozier (in the unlikelihood that Dozier would ever come out of a game).

 

Bringing up Sano makes the most sense... if... the Twins become ever more desperate for offense and a power bat... and that they finally conclude that his bat is ready enough to possibly make a difference.

[howieramone2]

When it becomes time to make the Plouffe vs. Sano decision, I have all the confidence in the world, that our favorite team will be up to the task.

[HitInAPinch]

 

And play where, with Plouffe a top 10 3B for this year again, and likely next year?

 

IMO, I don't think AL 3B is filled with elite talent.  So I take Plouffe's ranking with a grain of salt.  Plouffe is MLB average.  Nothing wrong with that.  I don't think either should be moved off 3B.  At the end of the year, there are AB's available to each to get reps.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Because he's one of the Twins' premier talents who could be a difference maker for a pennant-contending team which is woefully short of power bats. The Twins DH's batted around .400 OPS after Vargas was sent down. Trevor Plouffe is currently in a massive June slump, 1 for 29, and hitting clean-up. It would be nice to have an active contingency plan that represents a potential upgrade at both spots when the first choices are either slumping, need time off, or represent a clear situational disadvantage.

IMHO,  in that scenario, Sano will see a bevy of breaking balls and will be more of a "1 for 29" type than a difference maker.

[ashbury]

Love the sarcasm!