2016 Election Thread

[PseudoSABR]

 

Disaster for Clinton.

 

I wouldn't go that far.   I think she still wins by Obama 2012 margins, if not more.  

I'd say disaster for Republicans if they thought they could run-away from Trump after a drubbing by Clinton.  The rural, right-wing is motivated to turn out for Trump and his rhetoric; the idea that the Republicans could rally around Kasich or whomever after the election seems far-fetched now.    

 

Though, the Republicans look to maintain control of the Senate as a result of the turn-out, but we'll see. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Holy crap....he's leading in far more swing states than I'm comfortable with.

 

Also, with as close as these states are, there is no way this ordeal is over tonight.

Yeah, it's scary... but I believe urban areas tend to report later and we all know how the demographics split in this regard.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yeah, it's scary... but I believe urban areas tend to report later and we all know how the demographics split in this regard.

 

That's the only hope at this point.  Both candidates will have legit challenges in all of the major swing states from what it looks like now.  But right now this is about worst case scenario for Clinton.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I wouldn't go that far.   I think she still wins by Obama 2012 margins, if not more.  

I'd say disaster for Republicans if they thought they could run-away from Trump after a drubbing by Clinton.  The rural, right-wing is motivated to turn out for Trump and his rhetoric; the idea that the Republicans could rally around Kasich or whomever after the election seems far-fetched now.    

 

Though, the Republicans look to maintain control of the Senate as a result of the turn-out, but we'll see. 

 

I'm really curious how you can say that at this point.  Right now, things don't look that way at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's the only hope at this point. Both candidates will have legit challenges in all of the major swing states from what it looks like now. But right now this is about worst case scenario for Clinton.

It looks bad but Clinton didn't need Florida or Ohio. Michigan is the only really troubling state I see right now (though it's a big one).

[stringer bell]

Doing some math based on exit polls, it looks dicey for Clinton in Michigan and Minnesota of all places.Virginia is certainly tighter than I thought it would be and Florida looks to be very close.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I'm really curious how you can say that at this point.  Right now, things don't look that way at all.

First, I think the early vote has really screwed the percentage reported numbers out of Florida, and elsewhere.  It's unclear how much is remaining out counties near Miami for instance.   Given Trump's lead and the supposed percentage reported in, the networks should have called it.

 

Second, we're seeing the Midwest and South returns surged by rural turnout, with largely urban centers remaining.  The map has changed from Obama--I think she makes up for it in urban centers remaining and out West, where rural areas are less dense and the Latino population (esp. of Mexican heritage) is more significant.

 

It seemed close in 2012 early on the night of, and by the next day, Obama won by 4 or 5.  I recall refreshing Ohio and Florida counties for hours before knowing for sure...

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

First, I think the early vote has really screwed the percentage reported numbers out of Florida, and elsewhere.  It's unclear how much is remaining out counties near Miami for instance.   Given Trump's lead and the supposed report in, the networks should have called it.

 

Second, we're seeing the Midwest and South returns surged by rural turnout, with largely urban centers remaining.  The map has changed from Obama--I think she makes up for it in urban centers remaining and out West, where rural areas are less dense and the Latino population (esp. of Mexican heritage) is more significant.

 

It seemed close in 2012 early on the night of, and by the next day, Obama won by 4 or 5.  

I tend to agree... to an extent. I still think Clinton wins and it's not nail-biting close but I think it's closer than 2012.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On a related note: anyone want to take a swing at 538's projection model right about now?

 

Didn't think so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Virginia is certainly tighter than I thought it would be and Florida looks to be very close.

Hard to say with Virginia. The counties with outstanding votes are largely blue, and bright blue at that.

 

Again, the demographic split between rural and urban is causing a lot of fuss, and I'm not quite convinced we should be *too* worried quite yet.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, it's scary... but I believe urban areas tend to report later and we all know how the demographics split in this regard.

And don't think the networks aren't aware of this and don't want to milk all the drama they can. They don't want folks going to bed at 10:00.

 

Not that I'm still not nervous.

[PseudoSABR]

 

On a related note: anyone want to take a swing at 538's projection model right about now?

 

Didn't think so.

Fair enough.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fair enough.  

I mean, I was deeply hoping Silver went off the rails and Clinton was going to walk away with this thing but I kept remembering, damn, it's Nate Silver... The prick has the annoying tendency to be right far more than any human should be.

[nicksaviking]

I'm really questioning these guys' ability to do simply statistics on the fly.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I mean, I was deeply hoping Silver went off the rails and Clinton was going to walk away with this thing but I kept remembering, damn, it's Nate Silver... The prick has the annoying tendency to be right far more than any human should be.

It's hard arguing with results; his model included more uncertainty, and looks like he was right to have it.  That said, I'm not sure he exactly predicated the enthusiasm of rural whites.  Some posters did here, though (/hattip you know who you are).  We'll see if it holds up throughout the night.    

[stringer bell]

How accurate are exit polls? I have been looking at basic information like gender, figuring that is a near 50-50 split in numbers (always a few more females). Examples:   Trump +12 with men in MI, Clinton +11. Should be just about a dead heat, no?

[formerly33]

How is everyone spending the evening? Watching election returns somewhere? Drinking heavily somewhere trying not to pay attention until a winner is announced?

 

I'm off to play tennis tonight. It will do me some good.

Not supposed to drink ... listening to Cannibal Corpse and wiping tears from my eyes as I realize that my vote for Hillary actually counted.

 

[PseudoSABR]

NBC calls Ohio for Trump, and then calls Virginia for Clinton.   If Trump wins Florida....

[twinsnorth49]

Your country is collectively ****ed in the head.

 

The greatest country in the world, and this is who you choose to lead it.

 

Disgraceful, this is the change you want?

 

Completely lost.

[Vanimal46]

There seems to be a ton of silent Trump supporters out there...

[nicksaviking]

I care less about the president than what will happen to the SC.

 

I feel so ashamed.

[BeenHazy]

Who knows how they do it, but at the moment this looks bad.  

[nicksaviking]

Cheering for Iowa, Wisconsin and Detroit in a Minnesota sports thread.

 

Hope none of these middle class angry white men voting Trump were depending on their 401Ks for retirement.

[ashbury]

I wouldn't go that far.   I think she still wins by Obama 2012 margins, if not more. 

Unlikely. Florida is gone. Ohio is gone.

 

It's a disaster for Clinton because even if she squeaks through, there will be no mandate, and she'll face a validated and emboldened opposition in both houses of Congress.

[formerly33]

There seems to be a ton of silent Trump supporters out there...

Or maybe it's just rigged ...

 

 

 

Okay, okay ... kale me ...

[nicksaviking]

Should have gone with a Latino running mate. I'd trade Virgina for Florida right now.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Unlikely. Florida is gone. Ohio is gone.

 

It's a disaster for Clinton because even if she squeaks through, there will be no mandate, and she'll face a validated and emboldened opposition in both houses of Congress.

 

Exactly, the wing that made Trump possible has already won the moral victory.  Now they may win the war.

[stringer bell]

It looks like Clinton will need a high-wire act to win--carry PA, MI and WI by small margins. She's lost Florida and Ohio and is not sitting great in NH for what it's worth.

[USAFChief]

If Michigan and Wisconsin don't flip, Trump will win.

 

This sucks.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It seemed close in 2012 early on the night of, and by the next day, Obama won by 4 or 5.  I recall refreshing Ohio and Florida counties for hours before knowing for sure...

 

Ohio and Florida have already flipped.  That's nearly a 50 vote swing.

 

I think, too often, those without experience in that large swath of America that like Trump underestimate how much of the country disagrees with their thinking.  Clearly that's been the case this entire election and, even if he loses, the results demonstrate the truth of that discord.