Does Terry Ryan have what it takes to lead the Twins in 2015?

[Target Field of Dreams]

 

Neither Nolasco or Santana were bad, medicore players before coming to the Twins either.

 

Nolasco was nearly the definition of mediocre before coming to the Twins

 

2013 MLB League Averages ERA: 3.86; FIP: 3.87; WHIP: 1.300; SO/9: 7.6

2013 Ricky Nolasco               ERA: 3.52; FIP: 3.34: WHIP: 1.209; SO/9: 7.4

 

[SwainZag]

 

Nolasco was nearly the definition of mediocre before coming to the Twins

 

2013 MLB League Averages ERA: 3.86; FIP: 3.87; WHIP: 1.300; SO/9: 7.6

2013 Ricky Nolasco               ERA: 3.52; FIP: 3.34: WHIP: 1.209; SO/9: 7.4

 

So better than league average is medicore?  Ricky had been a 3 WAR average player for 6 years before coming over the Twins.

[nicksaviking]

Nolasco and Santana were signed in different years. It's not really viable to say you would rather have 1 $25M pitcher over the 2 $10-13M pitchers. Neither Nolasco or Santana were bad, medicore players before coming to the Twins either.

I don't care about the money, I care about the years. Had Ryan made these moves 2011-13 it would have been a band aid bridge when there were zero young arms you could plug in there that made much long term sense. Perhaps the goal of being pseudo-competitive during that time would have actually been accomplished also. Signing average pitchers to long term deals at what was hopefully the tail end of the rebuild makes little sense.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't care about the money, I care about the years. Had Ryan made these moves 2011-13 it would have been a band aid bridge when there were zero young arms you could plug in there that made much long term sense. Perhaps the goal of being pseudo-competitive during that time would have actually been accomplished also. Signing average pitchers to long term deals at what was hopefully the tail end of the rebuild makes little sense.

 

This part, to me, is the issue. At the time, I'd hope they still had confidence in May and Meyer, and they had Berrios tearing it up and were honing in on Stewart already.....and they still signed Nolasco to a long deal, then doubled down on Santana (after having Hughes). They had Gibson. Basically, they locked in 60-80% of their rotation, when May, Meyer, Berrios were in AA/AAA......that seems odd. And, if they really had that little confidence in Meyer, why not move him to the pen or deal him this offseason?

 

It's not one decision, its the accumulation of the decisions that seem odd to me.

[brvama]

I thought the signing of Nolasco and Santana were reasonable moves. However I totally agree, Nick and Mike, that the length seems baffling. One was workable, two constipated.

[chopper0080]

 

I don't like the logic that if Meyer fails, it was a bad trade.

 

The market for centerfielders was hot and we are still not good and Denard is 31 (and we would likely not have extended him past his contract).  So you attempt and add a guy via trade that you can't get on the open market (ace upside). Meyer was a top 30-40 prospect

 

 

I want my GM making this deal all day long.  If he does it five times you get an ace under control 2-3 times. That is worth it.

If you are trading major league players who you do not have a replacement for in order to get power pitching prospects that fail to contribute at the MLB level, that is a dumb move and is not the move you want to make.  You can trade Revere or Span, but you can't trade both if you don't have an option at CF.  You will probably argue that we hda Hicks, but that is the prospect problem.

 

Here is the breakdown

 

Trade Revere for May = Good

Trade Span for Meyer = Bad

Hicks as CF = Bad.

Not signing acquiring an MLB CF = Worse

 

You just can't justify trading all of your depth, depending on unreliable prospects to succeed, and then fail to fill the hole once that prospect fails.  That is poor management.

[chopper0080]

 

Your viewpoint that the Twin's and Ryan's reaction to the 2011 collapse was ignorance and/or incompetence are a common and understandable conclusion. I don't think it was either. Granted, the road since then includes mistakes and bad decisions. It also has Ryan's aggravating imprint on it: conservative, deliberate, risk-averse, half-measures, etc. I can see the argument for firing him (although the whole saber metrics theme hardly enters into it for me). But I cut him slack because he started the cleanup process in 2012 with limited resources in all three key asset categories upon which the turnaround could take place. He lacked tradable MLB assets, he lacked minor league assets to use for either trade or promotion, and he lacked the kind of FA budget that would have been required given the paucity in the other two categories. Like it or not, Ryan's strategic options were limited for all practical purposes to replenishing the minor league assets. Very few GM's have pulled off a rebuild based of FA spending and been able to sustain a level of excellence. I think the Twins and Ryan recognize this. And from where I'm sitting, the strategy they have pursued, while imperfect and painful for fans, is on plan and only off schedule due to injuries to Buxton and Sano.

The Twins are the only thing that limits it's resources.  How do we go from a playoff contender to a 90 loss team and not have any movable assets?  If you don't have assets, then you have to acquire them.  You then take those and move them for more assets.  You buy low on some players, and spend for some others.  That is how a rebuild works. 

 

Ryan has failed on more moves than he has succeeded.  And the highlighted part is way too much pressure to put on two guys at AA ball.  That is a plan that fails more often than not, and we are witnessing it as we speak.

[tobi0040]

 

If you are trading major league players who you do not have a replacement for in order to get power pitching prospects that fail to contribute at the MLB level, that is a dumb move and is not the move you want to make.  You can trade Revere or Span, but you can't trade both if you don't have an option at CF.  You will probably argue that we hda Hicks, but that is the prospect problem.

 

Here is the breakdown

 

Trade Revere for May = Good

Trade Span for Meyer = Bad

Hicks as CF = Bad.

Not signing acquiring an MLB CF = Worse

 

You just can't justify trading all of your depth, depending on unreliable prospects to succeed, and then fail to fill the hole once that prospect fails.  That is poor management.

 

When we are not going to be competitive for at least two or three years, moving a guy for a top prospect and clearing a spot for a prospect to see what you have is a great move in my eyes. Especially since Span was going to be past his prime when we were going to be good again and a vast majority of his trade value was his contract.  When you take a step back, we were completely devoid of power, upside arms and the Twins will never, ever sign one on the free agent market.  So this deal, to acquire one of the best 30 prospects coming off a great year in high A was a fantastic move. These are the types of arms you need to compete. The Span for Meyer deal was a typical rebuilding move that most on these boards skewer Ryan for not doing. I wish we had made more of these deals.

 

Now, fast forward a year and Hicks falls completely on his face, I agree. We needed to move on, bring in MLB talent and bring him back to AAA and work his way back up.  But those are separate issues

 

[tobi0040]

 

 

The Twins are the only thing that limits it's resources.  How do we go from a playoff contender to a 90 loss team and not have any movable assets?  If you don't have assets, then you have to acquire them.  You then take those and move them for more assets.  You buy low on some players, and spend for some others.  That is how a rebuild works. 

 

Ryan has failed on more moves than he has succeeded.  And the highlighted part is way too much pressure to put on two guys at AA ball.  That is a plan that fails more often than not, and we are witnessing it as we speak.

 

On what time frame are you referring to here?  Over the last 2-3 years or his complete tenure?  Because if you go back from his tenure, I bet his moves are better than a majority of his peers over that time stretch. Much like a successful hitter fails 7 out of 10 times, most draft picks and free agent signings don't pan out.  I also think that during 2006-2012 or so, we chose to let players leave via free agency and receive draft picks.  The gamble that guys like Berrios (comp pick for Cuddy) are going to outperform the trade targets over time.

 

I have questions about him moving forward and staying up to date in a changing game.  But his track record is a pretty good one.

 

[COtwin]

I think there is a little too much loyalty placed on TR. I think he is probably an average GM for a good talented team. He never helped his team to the World Series, or more than one playoff series win. Good GMs are capable of making the moves that pay off with titles. Under TR the Twins were never really close to winning a World Series. He isn't good with rebuilds as we are seeing now. He is capable of maintaining a good teams ability to win Division titles in a what was a fairly weak division.

[tobi0040]

This is a fine line here regarding the gm. He is somehow a better gm is joe Nathan does not blow two games against the Yankees? As the gm, all you can do is go out and get talent, as he did with Nathan. He was one of the best closers in the game for a long time but he choked.

[bird]

 

Not every expert thought it was a good trade. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-steal-denard-span-from-twins/: 

 

 

OK, most every OTHER expert then.

 

The point I was making was that if you're going to argue it's a bad trade, you must argue that it was a bad decision, as perhaps jokin will do retrospectively here.

 

Many of us thought the trade was not just an acceptable risk, but an important one given the dearth of options. It's reasonable to argue otherwise, but good decisions and bad results are  not mutually exclusive. No one is telling the Cards they made a bad decision on Oscar Taveras. For someone to say that it's entirely possible to predict and then control something like a pitching prospect's development is nonsensical and naive. In this game, there's uncertainty at every turn for the GM. 

 

But again, the jury will remain out for a long long time on this trade.

[tobi0040]

Agree bird. You have an 11 facing a 6, you double. You made a good decision and will make the same one in the future regardless of the outcome.

[ashbury]

Agree bird. You have an 11 facing a 6, you double. You made a good decision and will make the same one in the future regardless of the outcome.

If only front office decisions were as clearly defined and amenable to exhaustive study as blackjack.

[howieramone2]

 

If only front office decisions were as clearly defined and amenable to exhaustive study as blackjack.

 

Or the TD posting policy.

[bird]

 

I may have replied too hastily when I threw out Reed and Burdi's names. They are just 2 of the promising arms we have in the minors and many thought there was a chance Burdi could make it to the MLB squad by last september due to him being a really good college closer when we drafted him.

 

But even if you throw those 2 out...there are many other options in AAA that would be better than Boyer, Stauffer and Thompson, so the point is still valid. 

 

Any 3 of the below would be better, but Ryan and/or Molitor chose to go the safe veteran route once again when finalizing the roster.

 

A.J. Achter

Stephen Pryor

Lester Oliveros

Michael Tonkin

Ran Pressly

Caleb Thielbar

Logan Darnell

 

and there is still absolutely no valid excuse for the outfielders they chose to start the season with. If the argument is that none of our minor leaguers were ready, then they should have spent $10 million dollars on a legit defensive outfielder, rather than 39 year old Torii Hunter. Torii was one of my favorite Twins when he was on the team before, but at this point in his career he simply isn't the player we needed to help us win games in 2015.

 

I was not happy about Stauffer and Boyer being brought in myself. But I also think a good argument could be made that it's a pretty close call comparing every one of the pitchers you've mentioned. It just leaves me with a hollow feeling to have the BP get older, if even for a half-year of another uncompetitive season. But in the defense of Molitor/Allen/Ryan, none of the guys sent to Rochester did a whole lot this spring to sway them. Personally, I liked Thompson over Thielbar and am hoping Tonkin and Oliveros step up their games a bit. I liked the Graham pickup.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Agree bird. You have an 11 facing a 6, you double. You made a good decision and will make the same one in the future regardless of the outcome.

Yes, just push another trade chip out there and play again! Pohlads always roll the high stakes tables, as everybody knows

[bird]

One bird's opinion:

 

Revere trade: very good decision

Span trade: good decision, good risk, may still eventually produce huge results

Hicks to CF with a lousy backup plan: very bad decision

Not trading for or making a FA CF acquisition for 2015: good decision, with Schaefer, Hicks, Robinson, Rosario as placeholder options for less than a full season that will not require more than that.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What makes the Meyer situation so agonizing is that he was so close. Last summer would have been the perfect time to call him up. When he was dominating. Or even out of camp this spring to pitch from the bullpen for a year next to Boyer and Graham.

[h2oface]

 

This part, to me, is the issue. At the time, I'd hope they still had confidence in May and Meyer, and they had Berrios tearing it up and were honing in on Stewart already.....and they still signed Nolasco to a long deal, then doubled down on Santana (after having Hughes). They had Gibson. Basically, they locked in 60-80% of their rotation, when May, Meyer, Berrios were in AA/AAA......that seems odd. And, if they really had that little confidence in Meyer, why not move him to the pen or deal him this offseason?

 

It's not one decision, its the accumulation of the decisions that seem odd to me.

Amen. Can I get a witness?

An ace, I can get behind. Two mediocre average pitchers... no way. If they had that little faith in Meyer, they should have flipped him for a centerfielder....... I hear he can bring a pretty good centerfielder in a one for one trade..... plus, he is closer to the majors now, right? This is another example of never being in a rebuild. The Marlins know how to rebuild. The Twins' front office is living in the past, in my opinion.

[h2oface]

 

One bird's opinion:

 

Revere trade: very good decision

Span trade: good decision, good risk, may still eventually produce huge results

Hicks to CF with a lousy backup plan: very bad decision

Not trading for or making a FA CF acquisition for 2015: good decision, with Schaefer, Hicks, Robinson, Rosario as placeholder options for less than a full season that will not require more than that.

Totally agree on the Revere trade. It was two for one, too. And that noodle arm with no walks was a liability no matter how big that smile was. Worley is a mystery. The Phils seemed to know, and the Pirates may still be able to save him, but Anderson and company were lost.

Span trade, with that great contract the Twins had? Horrible trade. Time has proven it. Some say the evidence isn't in yet, but last year with no help for the MLB team is one year of failure as far as I am concerned. And this year is counting. I will give you the first year for trading for a double A prospect. Span contributed both of those years.  Now the Twins are just making him less and less valuable to even trade. I can't separate the Span trade with the Hicks to centerfield plan. The Span/Revere/Hicks plan is all the same plan. It cannot be separated.

[howieramone2]

 

What makes the Meyer situation so agonizing is that he was so close. Last summer would have been the perfect time to call him up. When he was dominating. Or even out of camp this spring to pitch from the bullpen for a year next to Boyer and Graham.

 

It's unforgivable they missed that 4 or 5 day window.

[h2oface]

 

 

......Under TR the Twins were never really close to winning a World Series. He isn't good with rebuilds as we are seeing now. He is capable of maintaining a good teams ability to win Division titles in a what was a fairly weak division.

TR never blessed the team with the one two punch of aces with a better than innings eater third for the playoff run. It almost magically happened in 2006 with Liriano being the wildcard unexpected second ace, but when he went down.... no move. In 2010 there were no aces, either. He made the move for Capps and gave up Ramos. Everbody knew Mauer's time behind the plate was nearing an end, and Capps was another mediocre to bad pitcher. Terry loves to resign those guys. (Pavano, Capps, Pelfrey, E. Santana....)

[jokin]

 

TR never blessed the team with the one two punch of aces with a better than innings eater third for the playoff run. It almost magically happened in 2006 with Liriano being the wildcard unexpected second ace, but when he went down.... no move. In 2010 there were no aces, either. He made the move for Capps and gave up Ramos. Everbody knew Mauer's time behind the plate was nearing an end, and Capps was another mediocre to bad pitcher. Terry loves to resign those guys. (Pavano, Capps, Pelfrey, E. Santana....)

 

Capps was Bill Smith's doing (although it's probable that TR consulted on the dea- and likely on the even more head-scratching Capps re-sign). 

[jokin]

 

 

It's unforgivable they missed that 4 or 5 day window.

 

In point of fact, the window for Meyer was wide open, and the parade of mediocrity between Rochester and Minnesota came and went though that window multiple times... and the window actually extended,    in terms of Meyer's ST Majors/AAA dominance, from March (when Gardy publicly called for Meyer to be one of his late inning guys) all the way to August, but anyway.... "nice try" on the TR defense team, I know it's a lonely job these days.

[bird]

 

The Twins are the only thing that limits it's resources.  How do we go from a playoff contender to a 90 loss team and not have any movable assets?  If you don't have assets, then you have to acquire them.  You then take those and move them for more assets.  You buy low on some players, and spend for some others.  That is how a rebuild works. 

 

Ryan has failed on more moves than he has succeeded.  And the highlighted part is way too much pressure to put on two guys at AA ball.  That is a plan that fails more often than not, and we are witnessing it as we speak.

 

First of all, every team has resource limits, even teams like Detroit and the Yankees. If it's not cash assets (payroll budget), it's roster assets (most teams have a shortage, not a surplus), or prospects (not fully appreciated). And while you have partially described what is a continual process of managing assets for a baseball team, you've done so in extremely simplistic terms. For example, while the Twins had some "moveable" assets on the roster, they did not have great value, certainly not enough to convert the team back into a contender, not given the lack of prospects ready to step in. And to acquire assets for cash? They did that to an extent, but every team, including the Yankees, is coming to grips with the reality that it's not a sustainable model. Even the Yankees are building a better prospect pipeline. Detroit is one of the few teams attempting to sustain its success by exchanging cash and prospects for roster assets, and they've made it work beautifully for a nice length of time. However, when the roster assets get injured or depreciate, they're finally out of prospects to deal. The Twin's Taylor Rogers, Jason Wheeler, and Tyler Duffey probably have more value than the Tiger's top three prospects, and none of these guys makes our top ten. Like it or not, that's how the Twins are going about the asset management process. And it's certainly OK to take issue with it. They could choose to increase the payroll budget even more and acquire a frontline player or two via FA, for example. But even then, I'm hearing critical comments about length of contracts as if that is simply a choice instead of a market factor. It's not a simple business.

[notoriousgod71]

 

I am in the camp that thinks Ryan is a good GM for a veteran laden team. He will be able To find you that fill in guy to get you over the hump. In fact he is so fond of veterans he keeps signing them to a non contemder. The Hunter signing wasn't dumb, it was absurd. And signing Dozier for 4 years and not getting anything in return was suspect. This is a insular hidebound orginisation that puts up with mediocricy. I doubt unless Jim Pohlad pulls the trigger it will change.

 

 

When did Ryan ever find that fill in guy to get us over the hump?

[bird]

 

In point of fact, the window for Meyer was wide open, and the parade of mediocrity between Rochester and Minnesota came and went though that window multiple times... and the window actually extended,    in terms of Meyer's ST Majors/AAA dominance, from March (when Gardy publicly called for Meyer to be one of his late inning guys) all the way to August, but anyway.... "nice try" on the TR defense team, I know it's a lonely job these days.

 

 

No need to be snarky, jokin, and I don't think you know for certain what the situation was last year with Meyer in AAA despite your extreme confidence. As has been pointed out many times, Meyer had to contend with three intertwining challenges: an innings limit, nagging injury problems, and mechanical problems that affected his efficiency. Just because no one called you with a report about it doesn't mean the staff in Rochester didn't call Ryan with one. The Twins and Ryan could have communicated better for sure.

 

Some of us think your criticism in this particular instance is unfair and lacks factual support. But we don't deserve a "nice try" as if we're conjuring something up, and we don't appreciate being labelled the TR defense team any more than others want to be labelled Negative Nellies.

[tobi0040]

I have openly stated I don't think TR is the guy that should lead our team.  But I also believe a few other things, that when I bring up people say I am defending him.

 

-Most draft picks fail.  It is comical to go back at past drafts, even 10 years ago and not even remember 2/3 of the guys taken in the first round. 

 

-Most free agent signings fail as well.  By definition you are paying top dollar. In most cases the best you can say 3-4 years later is that you sort of got your moneys worth.  Almost all larger deals for the best 20 free agent deals are not worth it at the end of the day

 

-I think the Twins ownership also plays a huge role here. I think in the 2010 to 2011 transition they said the themselves, we can lose 95 games with a $80M payroll just as easy as we can with a $110M payroll and with the stadium being so new, they new they would sell out.  And I think from year to year their priorities change from take payroll down, to lets field a better team, to we need to sign a starting pitcher or there and here is your budget.  This all leads to the fans wondering what the direction is.  Why are we not rebuilding, etc.   My personal opinion, like most 2nd generation businesses, they fail for a myriad of reasons. These guys have never ran a billion dollar business by themselves.  Never had their mortgage and grociery money on the line.  

 

-I completley agree with people that say we should have been like the Marlins or Astros regarding a rebuild.  I just think that given the owners and the stadium, TR never had that ability. Personally, I think he would have preferred it that way.

[markos]

 

OK, most every OTHER expert then.

 

The point I was making was that if you're going to argue it's a bad trade, you must argue that it was a bad decision, as perhaps jokin will do retrospectively here.

 

Many of us thought the trade was not just an acceptable risk, but an important one given the dearth of options. It's reasonable to argue otherwise, but good decisions and bad results are  not mutually exclusive. No one is telling the Cards they made a bad decision on Oscar Taveras. For someone to say that it's entirely possible to predict and then control something like a pitching prospect's development is nonsensical and naive. In this game, there's uncertainty at every turn for the GM. 

 

But again, the jury will remain out for a long long time on this trade.

(Memories are a fickle thing, so I hope my thoughts haven't been too tarnished by the passage of time..)

 

I was surprised that it was a one-for-one deal. I liked the acquisition of Meyer, but he is a very high-risk, potentially high-reward prospect, and I expected another player or two of the low-risk, low-ceiling variety to be thrown in. I have strong memory of reading Dave Cameron's analysis and being convinced it that the Nats got the better end of the deal. So immediately after the deal, I thought it was okay, but not a great deal. 

 

However, based on what I've learned over the past 2 years, I now think it was a poor decision. And I'm not talking about the subsequent results of this deal, but rather new information and research has changed my opinion on this deal. As examples:

 

1) A lot of research has been done to determine the expected value of prospect rankings. 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-expect-from-baseball-americas-top-100-prospects/

http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1449&context=cmc_theses

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top

These all show that a prospect in the 60-80 range (where Meyer was at the time of the trade) has an expected value of ~5 WAR. Span, by most projection systems, was expected to contribute ~9 WAR over the last 3 years on his deal. 

2) Pitchers are risky and volatile in general.  And Meyer in particular was (and still is!) incredibly risky. I don't think I fully appreciated at the time just how much risk is involved with a pitcher of Meyer's profile: 22-year-old and never pitched above A+, existing command and control issues, and abnormally tall.

3) I don't have any specific research to back this up, but I have started to question the wisdom of stockpiling minor league pitching. Pitcher development is so flat-out unpredictable that the cost of acquiring those arms (in draft picks, trades, etc) far exceeds, in my opinion, the actual expected value of those arms. There have been a lot of pitchers in just the past year that have gone from (basically) scrap-heap to top-of-the-rotation: Kluber, Hughes, Richards, Keuchel, Roark, Arrieta, etc. It seems to me that it would be more cost-effective to invest in and provide opportunity to those kind of arms (who can be acquired cheaply and in bulk) rather than trade a high-value asset to acquire a single 'elite' prospect arm.

 

So based on those reasons, I now feel fairly strongly that Ryan traded a relatively low-risk, high-expected-value short-term asset in Span for a very, very high-risk, medium-expected-value long-term asset in Meyer. And, for me, that was a bad decision.