Does Terry Ryan have what it takes to lead the Twins in 2015?

[Hrbowski]

I found something that I had written awhile ago, it said, "The future for the Twins is international free agency and the draft." I think that Terry Ryan has followed that pretty well, and teams like us can only be competitive if they build through that.

[jimmer]

 

I found something that I had written awhile ago, it said, "The future for the Twins is international free agency and the draft." I think that Terry Ryan has followed that pretty well, and teams like us can only be competitive if they build through that.

Perhaps.  What are some examples of the international free agency parts?  As far as  the draft, all teams build through the draft.  Our ineptitude on the field has given us really high draft position, but that's not supposed to be a plus.

 

And I'm not sure what 'teams like us' means. 

[tobi0040]

 

That's my conclusion?  No.  Span was a few wins better in 2013, and likely a LOT of wins better in 2014 as more of our OF options turned disastrous.  With 2015 still to come.

 

I think there is a great argument that we didn't get enough for Span, simply because multiple seasons of control is not highly valued in most trades.  Austin Jackson, with less than half as much team control remaining (1.3 seasons, versus 3 for Span), netted David Price with equivalent team control, or many years of MLB ready Smyly/Franklin (depending on how you parse that 3-team trade).  We got one guy, BA's #59 prospect, with no experience above A-ball and who was by all accounts a year or two away from the big leagues, even assuming good health.

 

It's the same thing when people see a reliever get traded, and say "Think what we could get for Perkins and his X seasons of team control!"  But teams trading for closers and starting CF, presumably in win-now mode, don't have much incentive to pay full freight in trade for anything more than the next year or two.

 

I think TR undervalued Span.  Could be an extension of undervaluing defensive stats, as we have a lot of evidence of that since.

 

He also over-valued adding another lower-minors pitching prospect to the mix at that time.  When we traded Span, we had already drafted Berrios, Duffey, Rogers, among others, signed Thorpe and Hu, and had already guaranteed the favorable 2013 draft position that got us Stewart, Eades, Gonsalves, etc.  And a week later, we added May too (not to mention Gibson who was rated equally or higher than Meyer by most prospect lists and was basically ready to debut in MLB).

 

Not to say Meyer wasn't a better prospect than many of those guys, but 3 affordable years of Span was an awfully high price to pay to get him -- and only him -- at that point in time.  3 years of Span to buy a prospect who is at least a  year behind your top pitching prospect, and probably only a year ahead of your others.

 

I don't really see how Span was a lot of wins better in 2014, unless you are saying we could have had both Santana and Span in the OF (Santana's WAR was actually higher than Spans in 2014).  I think the reality is Arcia would have had a full year and we didn't move Willingham until half way through the season.

 

I think we had lingering doubts about Span and his concussion.  He missed 90 games in 2013 and another 30 in 2014.  The OPS of .687 and .737 his last two years here was not unbelievable.  I am guessing that impacted his value at the time.

 

But you won't get me arguing that TR does not undervalue defense.  Hard to argue with that one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't really see how Span was a lot of wins better in 2014, unless you are saying we could have had both Santana and Span in the OF (Santana's WAR was actually higher than Spans in 2014).  I think the reality is Arcia would have had a full year and we didn't move Willingham until half way through the season.

 

I think we had lingering doubts about Span and his concussion.  He missed 90 games in 2013 and another 30 in 2014.  The OPS of .687 and .737 his last two years here was not unbelievable.  I am guessing that impacted his value at the time.

 

But you won't get me arguing that TR does not undervalue defense.  Hard to argue with that one.

Span and Santana absolutely could have been in the same outfield.  When they decided to break in Santana in the OF last year, they had Hicks in CF but Kubel, Parmelee, and Nunez starting in the corners.  (Willingham and Arcia came back shortly thereafter, but one of them could have easily taken the DH spot that we then signed Morales to fill.)  Or Escobar could have started more in the OF, with Santana at SS.  Either way, adding a better player to the roster almost always means more better players play.

 

And if Span's value was still low after 2012 due to his concussion (although he had a pretty strong year in 2012), that's another factor where TR probably erred.  We probably could have have gotten a similar or better return on him a year or more later, barring a collapse (which would have been quite unexpected, given his 2012 results).  And of course we would have had the benefit of his services for another year.

 

I think it was some combination of guessing wrong on Span's health/forecast, under-valuing defense, and over-valuing adding one more piece to the farm at that point.  Not a terrible deal or a franchise crippler by any means, but I could see Span plus a more interesting/aggressive approach in the rotation getting us closer to .500 in 2013-2014 without handicapping us beyond those years.

[tobi0040]

 

I think it was some combination of guessing wrong on Span's health/forecast, under-valuing defense, and over-valuing adding one more piece to the farm at that point.  Not a terrible deal or a franchise crippler by any means, but I could see Span plus a more interesting/aggressive approach in the rotation getting us closer to .500 in 2013-2014 without handicapping us beyond those years.

 

They could have been in the same OF.  But  I don't know that Willingham or Arcia in 2014 would have had the Twins in crisis mode of we need to take a SS in AA and make him my CF.  I think the move was made in response to really, really bad CF play that with Span we likely don't make.  But we will never know.

 

I agree on the combination of assumptions/potential miscalculation regarding Span.  The potential contribution from Meyer over the six controllable years was well above the 6-9 WAR Span was going to add to this team (net of the alternative).  That was the gamble.

 

Before that trade TR had made comments that teams just don't trade good pitching prospects in AA and AAA.  When they get that close they want to hang onto them.  So he thought the best upside was in A ball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They could have been in the same OF.  But  I don't know that Willingham or Arcia in 2014 would have had the Twins in crisis mode of we need to take a SS in AA and make him my CF.  I think the move was made in response to really, really bad CF play.  But we will never know.

Santana was actually a AAA shortstop at the time, and played SS in his first few games in MLB.  But he hit well, so they wanted to keep his bat in the lineup as well as Escobar's.  (And the CF play may have been bad, but the LF/RF play was atrocious at that point.

 

Before that trade TR had made comments that teams just don't trade good pitching prospects in AA and AAA.  When they get that close they want to hang onto them.  So he thought the best upside was in A ball.

If the best pitching prospects are in A-ball, that's another thing suggesting TR didn't get good value in this trade.  He already had A-ball prospects, and was in the process of adding more via the draft and internationally for free.  He didn't really need to unload a good longish term MLB asset to get one more such prospect at that point in time.  A better/closer prospect, perhaps.  Or multiple A-ball prospects.

[tobi0040]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If the best pitching prospects are in A-ball, that's another thing suggesting TR didn't get good value in this trade.  He already had A-ball prospects, and was in the process of adding more via the draft and internationally for free.  He didn't really need to unload a good longish term MLB asset to get one more such prospect at that point in time.  A better/closer prospect, perhaps.  Or multiple A-ball prospects.

 

 

 

I am guessing if you look at the top 60 prospects, 35 or so were pitchers (MLB.com actually had him at 40 at that point).  Assuming 10-15 or so are in AAA and another handful in rookie leagues.   He may have been one of the few of the bunch that had ace type potential. 

 

 

 

For example, Gibson was ranked #34 at one point (BA in 2010).  I don't ever remember ace type projections from him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

Not to say Meyer wasn't a better prospect than many of those guys, but 3 affordable years of Span was an awfully high price to pay to get him -- and only him -- at that point in time.  3 years of Span to buy a prospect who is at least a  year behind your top pitching prospect, and probably only a year ahead of your others.

 

It's a sidetrack, admittedly, but I really like your point about team control.  I bristled at the notion when we were discussing Dozier extensions as well.  Added team control/cost certainty really isn't an attractive component to a trade unless the guy is ridiculously outperforming his pay grade.  The Span example is a good illustration of that.

 

In any case, I can't imagine bungling a position worse than we have CF for the last few years.