Reusse on Arcia

[USAFChief]

I'd be pretty surprised if Arcia isn't in LF for the Twins opening day.

[shs_59]

• Yes the Twins' , and Brunansky's attempts to "refine" or "tone down" Oswaldo Arcia has failed

THE WHOLE ORGANIZATION HAS FLOPPED on oswaldo arcia

 

I Guarantee  the Houston Astros would take Oswaldo Arcia in a second and put him in their Corner OF and start him everday against both lefties and righties....and just let him be him

 

the 200 strikeouts the 25-30 Homers, the .220-.260 batting average the below average OB%  the poorus eye at the plate. Who gives a crap?   Thats the Astros Method.

 

So come on Twins just for once, let Oswaldo Arcia be Oswaldo Arcia this "tinkering" is getting on my nerves , this is a bit ridicoulous.    If they're trying to change his swing and do this and do that and , look what its gotten ? A lenghty slow terrible contact swing thats taken away some of his power.

 

I'm all for instilling a certain kind of approach at the plate, but changing his mechanics or anything similar (probably last year) is a big mistake , in my opinion.

 

Productive AB's for Oswaldo in ST?  6 or 7 , divided by total # of AB's = Not too good.

 

 

^^^^^

Also ^  we're facing David Price on Opening Day, I could see Arcia Not in the lineup for that contest.

[Mike Sixel]

I was responding to the comments here about sending him down, but fair. Back in the day, the Twins decided to roll with the young guys and their struggles. Won 2 WS using that model. Haven't even made a WS since......

[brvama]

I think CF this year will be some mix of Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton eventually.  With all that young talent, I don't see the point for the Twins to give Schafer or Robinson any serious time.

I totally agree, but the opening day roster is a different story IMO, not that I'll agree with it.

[tobi0040]

 

 

We have Spring Training patience with Stauffer and Pelfrey, but not Arcia?  We keep hearing Spring Training does not count. I say he is the starter at the start of the season.  If he whiffs April send him down in May when Buxton is ready.  If he turns it around we are in great shape.  

 

Just a few days ago TD had an article on extending Arcia.  How our emotions go up and down.

 

 

With some arguing for 5, 6, and 7 year deals for Arcia.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

With some arguing for 5, 6, and 7 year deals for Arcia.

 

With a big "IF the Twins think he's a long term part of his future" in front of nearly every one of those posts..........at least the first time or two we posted there.

[tobi0040]

 

With a big "IF the Twins think he's a long term part of his future" in front of nearly every one of those posts..........at least the first time or two we posted there.

 

On the first page of comments alone, I tally up four people suggesting an extension without the qualification you have made.

 

In fairness, you made this crystal clear on your comments.

 

[bird]

 

Gotta keep the young guys down, and teach 'em to do things the Twins way........that's how it reads, right or wrong. 

 

 

I'm missing how it "reads" that way from anyone: TD commenters, Reusse, or the Twins. The Twins have consistently, throughout their entire history including recently, been more than willing to bring up young guys, often before they're completely ready. Arcia is an example of this, is he not? The problem has been having prospects worthy of the promotion.

 

I'm just happy we have fewer and fewer of the tired and false criticisms about how they suppress all these worthy prospects that if just given a chance without all that pesky tinkering around by the stupid coaches, they'd come up here and set the world on fire. You know, like Alex Meyer. 

[bird]

 

I'd be pretty surprised if Arcia isn't in LF for the Twins opening day.

 

I agree, and if Arcia starts or ends up in Rochester, it will be his own doing. I have high hopes that Hicks will take him aside and mentor him.

[Physics Guy]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/oswaldo-arcia-and-the-relentless-3-0-hack/

 

Fangraphs article.  'Oswaldo Arcia and the Relentless 3-0 Hack.'

Oh my God, I knew he was a hacker, but could somebody please give him the take sign this year? I loved the last line, "Problem is, he's got to actually run into one first."

[Physics Guy]

I would be mildly surprised if the Twins do not have Hicks in CF and Arcia in RF on Opening Day. I am all for giving Hicks one last chance in CF and I would be surprised if they gave the spot to Rosario without spending more time in AA to start the year. I can't see how you could send Arcia down and keep Hicks up. That said, my guess is they are both on a very short leash and Rosario pushes them out by May if they aren't performing.

[Jham]

Arcia is my favorite player on the team.  He has the potential to be an All-Star.  I think he actually has the athleticism to be an adequate defensive outfielder.  He is a fiery, passionate player.  He plays extremely hard and seems to want to win and get his teammates fired up.  Perhaps his struggles at the plate is that he tries TOO hard.  He gets antsy in big spots (his 3-0 count record is infamous).  But if our biggest criticism is that he plays too hard, tries too hard, and swings too hard, I can live with that.  He'll calm himself  and his swing down as he gains more experience.  Reminds me a bit of Carlos Gomez as far as his mental approach to the game.  He has an enthusiasm for the game  that seems to be contagious.  He just needs to harness it all in.  It took Go-Go years to do.  Arcia can be a better hitter than Gomez.

[Physics Guy]

Arcia is my favorite player on the team.  He has the potential to be an All-Star.  I think he actually has the athleticism to be an adequate defensive outfielder.  He is a fiery, passionate player.  He plays extremely hard and seems to want to win and get his teammates fired up.  Perhaps his struggles at the plate is that he tries TOO hard.  He gets antsy in big spots (his 3-0 count record is infamous).  But if our biggest criticism is that he plays too hard, tries too hard, and swings too hard, I can live with that.  He'll calm himself  and his swing down as he gains more experience.  Reminds me a bit of Carlos Gomez as far as his mental approach to the game.  He has an enthusiasm for the game  that seems to be contagious.  He just needs to harness it all in.  It took Go-Go years to do.  Arcia can be a better hitter than Gomez.

I hope you are correct because Gomez has received votes the last two years for NL MVP.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So Pinto isn't up for backup catcher, just Herrmann and Fryer?

I hope Arcia gets some more time to mature and develop. As Moli said, he's 23 and still has a ton of potential. Maybe AAA is a good place for Arcia to start 2015. I wish that wasn't the case.

[tobi0040]

Sconnie,

 

Potential concussion for pinto and I think this is just talking about breaking camp. So that is why.

[jokin]

 

I would be mildly surprised if the Twins do not have Hicks in CF and Arcia in RF on Opening Day.

 

Prepare to be surprised, Hunter will be starting in RF, that's a given.

[Brock Beauchamp]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/oswaldo-arcia-and-the-relentless-3-0-hack/

 

Fangraphs article. 'Oswaldo Arcia and the Relentless 3-0 Hack.'

That article is embarrassing. It does everything but call Arcia a moron and had the author actually gone that far, I still wouldn't be able to really disagree with his take.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

As of now, I think, Arcia comes north and Rosario starts in AAA. However, Rosario will replace Arcia should Ozzie falter and that could happen by May. As much as they like Rosario, it's hard to imagine them putting him on the opening day roster for his MLB debut, especially considering his AA performance LY.

CF is a mess and I havent a clue how this one will be cleaned up. No matter what happens there is going to be much angst about to start the season. My gut tells me that Schafer gets the nod, hicks to AAA, and Herrmann/Nunez/Escobar as the fourth OF. After 6-8 weeks. Things will likely change.

no way, if Schafer gets the nod, Robinson will be 4th OF

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That article is embarrassing. It does everything but call Arcia a moron and had the author actually gone that far, I still wouldn't be able to really disagree with his take.

to be fair 48% of his 3-0 counts had a green light, that should be all of his hacks... Maybe the manager has more to do with performance at the plate than we thought....

[brvama]

no way, if Schafer gets the nod, Robinson will be 4th OF

That could happen but someone will need to be removed from the roster.

[ashbury]

 

That could happen but someone will need to be removed from the roster.

A pitcher. It's currently 22-18. The off-season indecision on pitching has its ripple effect on the position players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

to be fair 48% of his 3-0 counts had a green light, that should be all of his hacks... Maybe the manager has more to do with performance at the plate than we thought....

Either way, "green light" isn't synonymous with "swing at a pitch a foot off the plate". It's still expected that the batter use some strike zone judgment and take the walk if that's what's given to him.

[Physics Guy]

 

Prepare to be surprised, Hunter will be starting in RF, that's a given.

My bad, Arcia in LF. (Palm to forehead.)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Either way, "green light" isn't synonymous with "swing at a pitch a foot off the plate". It's still expected that the batter use some strike zone judgment and take the walk if that's what's given to him.

absolutely true, but if you're the manager, and you have a player who's strike zone judgement is in question, and his ability to make contact poor, would you give him the green light on that many 3-0 counts?

[tobi0040]

Sconnie and Brock. Both good points. I think you have some culpability on both sides (twins and Arcia)

On a side note. Spell check kept changing "sconnie" to "a commie".  I figured you would be flattered with that association.

[USAFChief]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/oswaldo-arcia-and-the-relentless-3-0-hack/

 

Fangraphs article. 'Oswaldo Arcia and the Relentless 3-0 Hack.'

IMO this article is less an indictment of Arcia than an example of why it's often hard to takr Fangraphs seriously.

 

It's 10 swings, for one thing. Over the course of a season. Had it been seven, the article doesn't get written. Had Arcia gotten two hits on 10 swings instead of none, the article doesn't get written.

 

For another, the author seems to lack any sense of when, or why, a managers would give a player a green light. The very first GIF shows Arcia hitting in the 7th, his team down a run, two outs, runner on second. Pitcher struggling, so you can bet the house on a fastball, and he gets one, a little up and in, perfect to turn on. Arcia has good power.

 

If Im managing, he gets fined if he DOESN'T take a good hack at that pitch. It was going to be a called strike anyway, so letting it go puts him in the exact spot he ends up in, and likely doesn't change the results of the AB. I have 7 outs left, and there is a very good chance that pitch represents by far the best opportunity left for the team to tie or take the lead. A walk there simply leaves it to the next hitter to bring in that runner from second, only he starts all over at 0-0, and most likely doesn't get the advantage of a very predictable pitch and might not have the platoon advantage either. And taking the pitch doesn't guarantee a walk anyway.

 

A couple of those 10 pitches Arcia shouldn't have swung at, I agree. Over the course of a season, every hitter in baseball will swing at some balls. Focusing on a couple for one hitter tells you very little about that hitter.

 

It might tell you a lot about the author, though.

[tobi0040]

 

IMO this article is less an indictment of Arcia than an example of why it's often hard to takr Fangraphs seriously.

It's 10 swings, for one thing. Over the course of a season. Had it been seven, the article doesn't get written. Had Arcia gotten two hits on 10 swings instead of none, the article doesn't get written.

For another, the author seems to lack any sense of when, or why, a managers would give a player a green light. The very first GIF shows Arcia hitting in the 7th, his team down a run, two outs, runner on second. Pitcher struggling, so you can bet the house on a fastball, and he gets one, a little up and in, perfect to turn on. Arcia has good power.

If Im managing, he gets fined if he DOESN'T take a good hack at that pitch. It was going to be a called strike anyway, so letting it go puts him in the exact spot he ends up in, and likely doesn't change the results of the AB. I have 7 outs left, and there is a very good chance that pitch represents by far the best opportunity left for the team to tie or take the lead. A walk there simply leaves it to the next hitter to bring in that runner from second, only he starts all over at 0-0, and most likely doesn't get the advantage of a very predictable pitch and might not have the platoon advantage either. And taking the pitch doesn't guarantee a walk anyway.

A couple of those 10 pitches Arcia shouldn't have swung at, I agree. Over the course of a season, every hitter in baseball will swing at some balls. Focusing on a couple for one hitter tells you very little about that hitter.

It might tell you a lot about the author, though.

 

I was looking at some power and split numbers.  I could not find OPS and HR rates by pitch, but if these ten situations were against right handed pitchers it seems like these are calculated decisions.

 

Career numbers:

 

Against righties - 20.4% of his fly balls were HR.  .490 slugging and .809 OPS. 

 

Against lefies - 9.8% of his fly balls were HR.  .347 slugging and .613 OPS

 

If memory serves me he has always hit fastalls pretty well.  So these numbers probably jump on fastballs.  If these situations were against righties and he is told to look fastball, I think it is a pretty compelling swing away situation.   If they were against a lefty, you hope to be walked.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

IMO this article is less an indictment of Arcia than an example of why it's often hard to takr Fangraphs seriously.

It's 10 swings, for one thing. Over the course of a season. Had it been seven, the article doesn't get written. Had Arcia gotten two hits on 10 swings instead of none, the article doesn't get written.

The article mentions that Arcia swung at 48% of 3-0 pitches.

 

Nobody else has crossed the 40% mark since 2008. Yeah, it's only a couple of swings, but...

 

Does this explain everything about Oswaldo Arcia? No, absolutely not but it's a glimpse into the attitude of a player and how it might be hurting the team.

 

The dude is straight-up swinging out of his shoes and there's no strategy to his game. That's not going to lead to prolonged success in MLB no matter how talented he is.

 

What's maybe most important about this article is that I read and it and said "of course Arcia swings at more 3-0 pitches than anyone else in baseball". The fact that I wasn't even a little bit surprised by the article's contents is a pretty damning observation of Arcia's game. In the grand scheme of things, does the frequency of Arcia swinging at a 3-0 pitch really matter? No, not really. But it's quite telling about how he approaches an at-bat and why there are some serious flaws in his game right now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

IMO this article is less an indictment of Arcia than an example of why it's often hard to takr Fangraphs seriously.

It's 10 swings, for one thing. Over the course of a season. Had it been seven, the article doesn't get written. Had Arcia gotten two hits on 10 swings instead of none, the article doesn't get written.

For another, the author seems to lack any sense of when, or why, a managers would give a player a green light. The very first GIF shows Arcia hitting in the 7th, his team down a run, two outs, runner on second. Pitcher struggling, so you can bet the house on a fastball, and he gets one, a little up and in, perfect to turn on. Arcia has good power.

If Im managing, he gets fined if he DOESN'T take a good hack at that pitch. It was going to be a called strike anyway, so letting it go puts him in the exact spot he ends up in, and likely doesn't change the results of the AB. I have 7 outs left, and there is a very good chance that pitch represents by far the best opportunity left for the team to tie or take the lead. A walk there simply leaves it to the next hitter to bring in that runner from second, only he starts all over at 0-0, and most likely doesn't get the advantage of a very predictable pitch and might not have the platoon advantage either. And taking the pitch doesn't guarantee a walk anyway.

A couple of those 10 pitches Arcia shouldn't have swung at, I agree. Over the course of a season, every hitter in baseball will swing at some balls. Focusing on a couple for one hitter tells you very little about that hitter.

It might tell you a lot about the author, though.

 

Was he supposed to show every swing ever? It was a very entertaining article, and the stats back up the conclusions. If he leaves out the swings and gifs, it still says the same thing.

[USAFChief]

 

Was he supposed to show every swing ever? It was a very entertaining article, and the stats back up the conclusions. If he leaves out the swings and gifs, it still says the same thing.

It might be very entertaining.

 

It's not analysis, and the "stats" certainly don't back up any conclusions.  One might even say it's written in a way that cleverly abuses "stats" to make a point seem stronger:  notice how he takes out the intentional walks from Arcia's OBP to make it look worse compared to league average, but doesn't take intentional walks out of league average before comparing it.

 

It's 10 swings.

 

10.

 

If it wasn't on Fangraphs, analysis based on 10 swings would be ridiculed by the folks who write articles for Fangraphs.