Article: TD Top Prospects: #2 Miguel Sano

[Seth Stohs]

One thing I'm curious for reader thoughts on... what do you think is a fair, reasonable timeline for "shaking off rust?" I asked the question in the article, and the obvious/correct answer is that there is no way to know for any one individual, but what do people think? Do we think he'll shake it off in spring training? It took Rosario months to shake off his rust from missing 50 games, and Sano missed a full season. What are you thinking/hoping/expecting?

[tobi0040]

and no one is saying that.

 

I think Jimmer was suggesting Plouffe can play 3B defensively and we don't know if Sano can.  Which is fair.  We need to ensure Sano can play there first.  

 

We went a very long time between good 3B....Koskie to Plouffe IMO.

[tobi0040]

One thing I'm curious for reader thoughts on... what do you think is a fair, reasonable timeline for "shaking off rust?" I asked the question in the article, and the obvious/correct answer is that there is no way to know for any one individual, but what do people think? Do we think he'll shake it off in spring training? It took Rosario months to shake off his rust from missing 50 games, and Sano missed a full season. What are you thinking/hoping/expecting?

 

I would need to know what Sano has been able to do this off-season.  I think that goes a long way.  But I don't expect Sano to just start out hitting a HR every few games, 2B, taking a ton of walks.

[jimmer]

One thing I'm curious for reader thoughts on... what do you think is a fair, reasonable timeline for "shaking off rust?" I asked the question in the article, and the obvious/correct answer is that there is no way to know for any one individual, but what do people think? Do we think he'll shake it off in spring training? It took Rosario months to shake off his rust from missing 50 games, and Sano missed a full season. What are you thinking/hoping/expecting?

He hasn't even turned 22 yet.  I'd be happy if he spent the whole minor league season in the minors shaking off the rust.

[HitInAPinch]

One thing I'm curious for reader thoughts on... what do you think is a fair, reasonable timeline for "shaking off rust?" I asked the question in the article, and the obvious/correct answer is that there is no way to know for any one individual, but what do people think? Do we think he'll shake it off in spring training? It took Rosario months to shake off his rust from missing 50 games, and Sano missed a full season. What are you thinking/hoping/expecting?

TJ surgery has changed over the years and players are coming back a lot faster than before. 

[wish I had some player references for that right now, but I don't]

With a few weeks of stretching out his arm in sunny, warm FLA and a month or 2 of AA playing time,  I think there is at least a possibility of Sano being ready for MLB around the All-Star break.  

At 260lbs, his weight does bother me some.  MiLB and baseball-reference both have him at 235lbs.  But who knows when was the last time he was weighted?

[ashbury]

My lovable Miguel! The only thing he could say in English when he moved into my home "Will I get enough to eat?". Not a problem. His second question translated by Kennys almost got him into trouble. "Lady, are you to old to take care of me?" I am quite a bit older that Miguel's mom. I told him I was old enough to kick his ass if he needed it. He was a good roomy, quite messy. Kept moving his bed into the middle of the room.

Why does the site software limit me to only one 'like' per post?

[Lonestar]

What do you do if his AA line is .236/.344/.571/.915, he is striking out 30% of the time, and his 3B defense is as good as it was in 2013?

[tobi0040]

What do you do if his AA line is .236/.344/.571/.915, he is striking out 30% of the time, and his 3B defense is as good as it was in 2013?

 

If he has a .571 slugging and an OPS of .915 the strikeouts seem moot to me.

[ashbury]

What do you do if his AA line is .236/.344/.571/.915, he is striking out 30% of the time, and his 3B defense is as good as it was in 2013?

I let Brunansky worry about tweaking the K's a little?

[Halsey Hall]

I think Sano shakes the rust by May 1st.  My dislike for the luckiest man in the world remains strong and I'd like him gone last year, but for sure by July and watch Sano the rest of the year, good or bad. 

[jimmer]

What do you do if his AA line is .236/.344/.571/.915, he is striking out 30% of the time, and his 3B defense is as good as it was in 2013?

It would concern me because if he's striking out that much in AA, I just imagine how much he'd K in the majors (not that Ks, by themselves, is a huge deal to me). I would also figure the other numbers would go down as well due to better competition.  And, of course, the defense being poor.  

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

[nater79a]

I think the Twins trade Plouffe when Sano is ready. Maybe give Plouffe a little time in the outfield if Rosario and Buxton are not ready when Sano is, but Sano is the 3rd baseman of the future. Yes, Sano is good enough that you'll always find him somewhere to play. No question. The reason to put him at 3rd is not to find him somewhere to play, it is so that you can keep Mauer, Vargas, and Arcia in the lineup (and later Minier or Diaz at 1st base). Plouffe is a valuable player, and I like the guy personally, but most of his future value to the Twins will be in a trade. It just makes no sense otherwise.

 

I agree. Deal Plouffe when Sano is ready, then give Sano a year and a half to see if he sticks at 3B.  If he can't then use your farm system depth at other positions to deal for a 3B prospect from another team. Or delve into free agency. 

 

Get value for Plouffe as soon as you can.

[nater79a]

One thing I'm curious for reader thoughts on... what do you think is a fair, reasonable timeline for "shaking off rust?" I asked the question in the article, and the obvious/correct answer is that there is no way to know for any one individual, but what do people think? Do we think he'll shake it off in spring training? It took Rosario months to shake off his rust from missing 50 games, and Sano missed a full season. What are you thinking/hoping/expecting?

 

I'd say give Sano ST plus April & May. If he's still struggling after Memorial Day, then I'd be concerned. I think he'll be fine though.

[jimmywill4]

Its almost time to crank it up, thanks Seth for your thoughts. So much emphasis on metrics these days, I get it but metrics is also subjective. At the end of the day can this kid hit? Strike out rate is higher, ok but 35 HR 30 doubles 5 trips and 103 RBI's the kid can hit, period. Will he make adjustments? his stats shown he has and will. If were talking about concerns to SO rate, take a peek at number 7's rate, that's concerning.

[jimmer]

Its almost time to crank it up, thanks Seth for your thoughts. So much emphasis on metrics these days, I get it but metrics is also subjective. At the end of the day can this kid hit? Strike out rate is higher, ok but 35 HR 30 doubles 5 trips and 103 RBI's the kid can hit, period. Will he make adjustments? his stats shown he has and will. If were talking about concerns to SO rate, take a peek at number 7's rate, that's concerning.

Mauer struck out less than 20% of the time (not even in the top 60 in K%), he's coming off a concussion, and they expanded the strike zone which is going to affect a guy with such an exact feel for what is, and isn't, a strike.  As they adjust the strike zone and the concussion symptoms get smaller and smaller, I imagine his Ks will go back down. Even if they don't, he didn't strike out a ton anyway.

 

On top of that, he's had one really bad year after tons of good ones.  

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmywill4]

So 88 in 12, 89 in 13 pre concussion isn't concerning for a singles hitter? I'm hopeful now with number 4 managing and not having a babysitter any longer he will make the necessary adjustments. It will be curious if he struggles to how long he stays batting 3. OPS means nothing batting 3rd, its about production.

[jimmer]

So 88 in 12, 89 in 13 pre concussion isn't concerning for a singles hitter? I'm hopeful now with number 4 managing and not having a babysitter any longer he will make the necessary adjustments. It will be curious if he struggles to how long he stays batting 3. OPS means nothing batting 3rd, its about production.

He only had one way to go for his K% and baseball made an effort to expand strike zone.  Strikeouts are up across MLB so it seems odd we would expect that not to affect our players, especially ones with a keen eye for what has been a strike. it's no wonder MLB is looking into the strike zone again.

 

And, for his career, Mauer has been a very good run creator (wRC+ of 131).  He was as recently as 2013 (wRC+ of 143). 

 

If he continues to hit like he did in 2014, I'll be concerned, but we saw him going back to normal in the 2nd half (wRC+ of 125).  I like his chances of being more like the Joe we've seen most of his career (minus 2009).

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

[dxpavelka]

If Sano struggles at 3B where else can he play? The OF is getting crowded, Mauer is at 1st and Vargas can only DH.

And yet one of our biggest concerns is the lack of MLB quality outfield play.

[jimmer]

And yet one of our biggest concerns is the lack of MLB quality outfield play.

We are lacking quality defensive OFs and overall proven MLB starting OFs that aren't close to getting their AARP card. IMO, we are just waiting on hopes and dreams.  As far as I'm concerned, right now our OF isn't crowded in the least...at least not with starting MLB quality OFs.

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

[diehardtwinsfan]

What do you do if his AA line is .236/.344/.571/.915, he is striking out 30% of the time, and his 3B defense is as good as it was in 2013?

I'd probably let him stay in AA and watch the month to month trends. Perhaps send him to AAA, but a guy hitting .236 in AA is going to have a huge problem in MLB. Heck, Arcia raked in AA.

[DJL44]

Sano has been compared to Miguel Cabrera since he was 16. Cabrera came up and played RF because Mike Lowell was established at 3B. Eventually Lowell was traded and Cabrera went to 3B. Then when Cabrera was traded to Detroit he moved to 1B. Sano could follow the same path, hopefully without the trade to Detroit.

[Dantes929]

I am very excited about Sano and really hope he can stick at 3B.  Here are my best case/worst case for his career.  This assumes he stays healthy throughout his career which is never a given.

 

Best case - Mike Schmidt (granted a much weaker fielding one)  - 

Not sure why at this point you would consider the best case scenario to be a much weaker fielding 3rd baseman?     He was a shortstop and has a great arm and I have read that he is a good athlete and a hard worker.   Why would the best case scenario not include gold gloves?

[tobi0040]

Not sure why at this point you would consider the best case scenario to be a much weaker fielding 3rd baseman?     He was a shortstop and has a great arm and I have read that he is a good athlete and a hard worker.   Why would the best case scenario not include gold gloves?

 

Schmidt won 10 gold gloves and ended his career with a d WAR of 18.  I don't see even the rosiest of rose colored glasses thinking Sano has any shot at those numbers at 3B.

 

Schmidt was 6'2 and 195 pounds.  Sano is 6'4 and 260 as a 21 year old and he needs to improve his footwork.  I think multiple gold gloves would be a huge stretch at this point. I think the Twins would be happy if he sticks at 3B and can play adequete defense there for multiple years.

Edited February 19, 2015 by tobi0040

[nytwinsfan]

We are lacking quality defensive OFs and overall proven MLB starting OFs that aren't close to getting their AARP card. IMO, we are just waiting on hopes and dreams.  As far as I'm concerned, right now our OF isn't crowded in the least...at least not with starting MLB quality OFs.

 

Agreed, outfield is not crowded, but on the other hand, the lack of quality defensive OFs is all the more reason Sano should not be playing there.

[tobi0040]

We are lacking quality defensive OFs and overall proven MLB starting OFs that aren't close to getting their AARP card. IMO, we are just waiting on hopes and dreams.  As far as I'm concerned, right now our OF isn't crowded in the least...at least not with starting MLB quality OFs.

 

I think we are crowded in the OF right now.  Not with established MLB players that are part of the future.  But with young, talented guys that we need to see if they are in the future plans or not.  We have arguably the games best prospect coming up as early as June in CF.   Arcia needs a little more time to see if he can play a corner.  Hicks will probably get a few more months and Rosario could emerge this year.  

 

Obviously signing Torii does not help this equation, but in that sense and knowing that we are not winning the world series next year....I think we are pretty crowded.

[Platoon]

I saw Sano in Beloit, later in that year. He hit one ball on a short hop off the base of the left center field fence and a line drive single up the middle that I am sure the pitcher still sees in his nightmares. The bat on the ball makes a special sound. He also made two errors on high school type plays, indicating a lack of concentration, and displayed a accurate rocket of an arm. I think he was 19 at the time? From all accounts his fielding has improved. He plays third until he proves he cannot do it. Then you figure out how to keep his bat in the lineup. As Bud Grant always said, never make a decision until you have to, because they normally make themselves for you!

[jimmer]

I think we are crowded in the OF right now.  Not with established MLB players that are part of the future.  But with young, talented guys that we need to see if they are in the future plans or not.  We have arguably the games best prospect coming up as early as June in CF.   Arcia needs a little more time to see if he can play a corner.  Hicks will probably get a few more months and Rosario could emerge this year.  

 

Obviously signing Torii does not help this equation, but in that sense and knowing that we are not winning the world series next year....I think we are pretty crowded.

waiting on hopes and dreams.

 

Arcia is a DH type who has to play OF because we have Vargas, another DH type.  Hunter should likely just be DHing or coaching (somewhere else). Hicks? Who knows.  Certainly not a known quantity.  Who knows how long Rosario will go.  Will he get hit again for a positive drug hit.

 

Buxton is coming. That's one.

Edited February 19, 2015 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

waiting on hopes and dreams.

 

Arcia is a DH type who has to play OF because we have Vargas, another DH type.  Hunter should likely just be DHing or coaching (somewhere else). Hicks? Who knows.  Certainly not a known quantity.  Who knows how long Rosario will go.  Will he get hit again for a positive drug hit.

 

Buxton is coming. That's one.

 

I guess I don't know who you give up on at this point?  Like it or not, 1B is covered. You move Arcia and Vargas to DH and you need to trade one.  Hicks is a huge talent.  Rosario is talented and very young.  We should be in no rush here and should let these guys play themselves out of the premium positions that would suit the team the best in the future.

 

Hicks is 25.  Rosario is 23.  Vargas is 24 and skipped AAA to have an OPS of .854 (OPS plus of 115) .  He hit 26 HR last year between AA and MLB.   And Arcia at ages 22/23 has a .743 OPS, an OPS plus of 104 and hit 34 HR in 200 games.

 

Having given up on Carlos Gomez and JJ Hardy at much older ages than these guys makes me think we should let this ride.

Edited February 19, 2015 by tobi0040

[maxisagod]

...Who knows how long Rosario will go.  Will he get hit again for a positive drug hit.

 

Buxton is coming. That's one.

 

Rosario is on the 40 man Roster Now, meaning he's a union man, no more recreational drug tests. The Twins have many positive options, time to let them play and fight it out. 

[jimmer]

I guess I don't know who you give up on at this point?  Like it or not, 1B is covered. You move Arcia and Vargas to DH and you need to trade one.  Hicks is a huge talent.  Rosario is talented and very young.  We should be in no rush here and should let these guys play themselves out of the premium positions that would suit the team the best in the future.

 

Having given up on Carlos Gomez and JJ Hardy at much older ages than these guys makes me think we should let this ride.

First, I like how 1B is covered,

 

Like I said a few times, this will work itself out.  Some will hit, some won't.  Things have a way of working themselves out.  I'm a Hicks believer too and the talent may be there, but it may never evolve.  not going to count him as a solid OF.

 

Gomez, I believe, had to leave to shine and letting Hardy loose was just plain dumb.  That's on Gardy who pushed Smith to do it and Smith for letting Gardy push him.