Twinkie Town interview with Rob Antony

[Seth Stohs]

Jesse from Twinkie Town posted his annual interview with Twins assistant GM Rob Antony. There is a ton of great information.

 

Part 1 is more about the major league side.

 

Part 2 is more about the minor league side. 

 

Some great questions, and Rob always does a great job in his responses. 

[jimmer]

Enjoyable read! Would have liked to see a question or two concerning the horrible defense and how it affects the pitching.  Defense seems to have been glossed over.

 

'When Torii came back for Twins Fest, our fans who came to Twins Fest were as excited about him being here as anybody we could have signed. That's not why we did it - it wasn't a PR move or anything else.'

 

Hmmm.

 

'But also, he would have led our team in RBI last year. 17 home runs would have been one of our leaders.'

 

Would he have led our team in RBI if he had played for us, though? He had a .694 OPS with RISP.  Would he have had as many runners in scoring position if he had been with us?

[USAFChief]

Enjoyable read! Would have liked to see a question or two concerning the horrible defense and how it affects the pitching.  Defense seems to have been glossed over.

 

'When Torii came back for Twins Fest, our fans who came to Twins Fest were as excited about him being here as anybody we could have signed. That's not why we did it - it wasn't a PR move or anything else.'

 

Hmmm.

 

'But also, he would have led our team in RBI last year. 17 home runs would have been one of our leaders.'

 

Would he have led our team in RBI if he had played for us, though? He had a .694 OPS with RISP.  Would he have had as many runners in scoring position if he had been with us?

For comparison:

 

According to BRef, Hunter had 83 RBI from 167 PAs with RISP (259 total PAs with at least 1 runner on base).

 

Mauer had 55 RBI fom 146 PAs with RISP (241 total PAs with at least 1 runner on base).

 

Dozier (who had the most PAs batting second in the order, like Hunter) had 71 RBI from 196 PAs with RISP (296 total PAs with at least 1 runner on base).

 

So I think it fair to guess Hunter might have done well with RBI as a Twin, too.

[jimmer]

yeah, but then we need to not only look at PAs with RISP but how many runners were in scoring position. Were there two lots of times? I think there are a lot of assumptions when you say because a player had this many RBI with  his old team he would have had that many with his new team.  He didn't hit well, overall, with RISP, his RBI total (like everyone else) is a function of Opps and we have no idea how Opps would have changed if he had been in the lineup.

 

So I guess we'll see how it works out this year.

[TheLeviathan]

I thought it was significant that in all the talk about the outfield, Santana's name never even came up.  To me that's an indication that he is not seen as part of the plan there.

 

I, for one, think that's a good thing.  Now just go get a real CF.

[gunnarthor]

Both interviews were pretty good although Antony didn't say anything earth shaking.  He does throw a little love at Duffey, who Seth has already mentioned in his top Twins list.  So maybe we have even more starter depth than I thought.  Which would be good.  He expects the team to be around .500, which I think is reasonable.  

[jimmer]

I honestly can't see how this team can reach .500. The pitching staff isn't that good, the defense is horrible, and there are quite a few players that are due to regress to the negative offensively.  I wish I could legitimately see how we'd get to .500 when looking at our team and comparing it to the others in the division, but I can't.

[nytwinsfan]

I honestly can't see how this team can reach .500. The pitching staff isn't that good, the defense is horrible, and there are quite a few players that are due to regress to the negative offensively.  I wish I could legitimately see how we'd get to .500 when looking at our team and comparing it to the others in the division, but I can't.

 

Agreed, if 5 or 6 things breaks right (Nolasco rebounds some, Mauer rebounds some, Hicks rebounds some, Vargas doesn't regress, Santana only regresses somewhat, Arcia and Gibson have slight improvments, Hunter's outfield D is only bad (not horrible)), then I could see us getting above .500. Otherwise, I doubt it.

[jimmer]

Enjoyable read! Would have liked to see a question or two concerning the horrible defense and how it affects the pitching.  Defense seems to have been glossed over.

 

----I have to amend this because there was a good question about this.  The answer was amusing, but the question was asked.  The question was : 'In terms of making the team better, the Twins have been very forward about saying the pitching needs to get better. But in terms of the pitching, is there concern that - and I'm sure you've heard this before - is there a concern that the outfield defense won't necessarily be doing the pitching any favors?'

[Willihammer]

I wonder what its going to take with Pinto to stop the Twins squandering the most productive years of his career. Newsflash, he'll be 26 next month. If he can't catch now, he's never going to catch. Put him somewhere else.

[gunnarthor]

I honestly can't see how this team can reach .500. The pitching staff isn't that good, the defense is horrible, and there are quite a few players that are due to regress to the negative offensively.  I wish I could legitimately see how we'd get to .500 when looking at our team and comparing it to the others in the division, but I can't.

They'll have some positive regression too.  Continued improvement from some young guys and some depth behind them.  I think fangraphs had an article about that a month or so ago and the Twins had the 3rd fewest number of players projected to have a low (sub 1) WAR. One way to improve a lot is to just not have a bunch of negative players on your team. So, ideally, next years team will be improved by not playing Colabello, Kubel, Parm etc.   IIRC, a .500 ish team should have about 35 WAR and the Twins were around 30 last year.  They can make that kind of jump.   If you look at the 2000-2001 Twins, you see that.  

[jimmer]

 I think fangraphs had an article about that a month or so ago and the Twins had the 3rd fewest number of players projected to have a low (sub 1) WAR. One way to improve a lot is to just not have a bunch of negative players on your team. So, ideally, next years team will be improved by not playing Colabello, Kubel, Parm etc.   IIRC, a .500 ish team should have about 35 WAR and the Twins were around 30 last year.  They can make that kind of jump.   If you look at the 2000-2001 Twins, you see that.  

Yes, but they also said that along with that, the team has few that are projected high, so overall, it's still not going to make much difference.  It's one of the reasons Fangraphs has them projected last and why every single person at Fangraphs that I've seen/heard talk about their chances predict yet another poor season.

 

Zips projects us to finish in the bottom 5 in MLB for wins, based on player projections.

[laloesch]

I honestly can't see how this team can reach .500. The pitching staff isn't that good, the defense is horrible, and there are quite a few players that are due to regress to the negative offensively.  I wish I could legitimately see how we'd get to .500 when looking at our team and comparing it to the others in the division, but I can't.

 

 

I don't know if i would say just yet that the pitching staff isn't that good.  Signing Santana will provide a dramatic improvements IMO.  Benching Nolasco and Pelfrey if they don't perform in favor of younger prospects like May, Meyer, Milone and eventually Berrios could be a blessing in disguise.  It wouldn't happen under Gardy who became a player's manager late in his career instead of a baseball fundamentalist.  There's no reason to trot Pelfrey or Nolasco out for 20+ starts when they are losing a majority of their games with this kind of talent in AAA. 

[ashbury]

According to BRef, Hunter had 83 RBI from 167 PAs with RISP (259 total PAs with at least 1 runner on base).

Always trust a writer who has it straight that RBI already contains the plural.

[Shane Wahl]

Wow, that was pretty thorough and informative.

[Seth Stohs]

I wonder what its going to take with Pinto to stop the Twins squandering the most productive years of his career. Newsflash, he'll be 26 next month. If he can't catch now, he's never going to catch. Put him somewhere else.

 

 

To be fair... where would that be? They have a DH already in Vargas. Pinto isn't exactly athletic enough to play elsewhere. If Vargas struggles, Pinto could DH too. But then they should bring up a real backup catcher as well if the reason is that they don't think he can catch. And then some will complain about 3 catches on the roster.

 

And, as he pointed out, he only hit .219. Pinto is no more a sure thing than Vargas is.

[Willihammer]

To be fair... where would that be? They have a DH already in Vargas. Pinto isn't exactly athletic enough to play elsewhere. If Vargas struggles, Pinto could DH too. But then they should bring up a real backup catcher as well if the reason is that they don't think he can catch. And then some will complain about 3 catches on the roster.

 

And, as he pointed out, he only hit .219. Pinto is no more a sure thing than Vargas is.

Yeah that's the other thing. Batting average? Weak.

 

3B or 1B? I know its easier said than done. I have more hope for a fresh start at a new position than for Pinto  to suddenly figure out catcher after 9 years of not cutting it.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah that's the other thing. Batting average? Weak.

 

3B or 1B? I know its easier said than done. I have more hope for a fresh start at a new position than for Pinto  to suddenly figure out catcher after 9 years of not cutting it.

Well, if Mauer isn't hitting well at first, it won't really matter.  Plouffe and Sano have third base, so that doesn't work.  An offensive-first backup catcher, part time DH isn't a horrible thing to have.  Sounds like Antony thought he'd get a couple games a week at catcher and a game at DH.  If he's hitting, he'll get 400 at-bats.

[Seth Stohs]

They have Plouffe and Sano at 3B, and Mauer and Vargas at 1B. So, he could be 25th man, pinch hitter, part time DH and emergency C, 1B and 3B.

[Willihammer]

As I understand it, Sano's long term position isn't sealed at third. And behind him there isn't anyone banging down the door. Plouffe could be traded. He's also coming off a broken arm. I think there's room for more depth there and it doesn't change the fact that continuing to pound away teaching Pinto to catch seems like a lost cause. A bat first backup catcher is only worth about, well, Sean Gilmartin.

[Steve Lein]

yeah, but then we need to not only look at PAs with RISP but how many runners were in scoring position. Were there two lots of times? I think there are a lot of assumptions when you say because a player had this many RBI with  his old team he would have had that many with his new team.  He didn't hit well, overall, with RISP, his RBI total (like everyone else) is a function of Opps and we have no idea how Opps would have changed if he had been in the lineup.

 

So I guess we'll see how it works out this year.

 

This is one idea about RBI's I love to look at, basically what percentage of possible baserunners-only did a guy bring in?

 

Wrote about this in another thread, that Adam Walker at Fort Myers last year had all those home runs and RBI's, but if you made the calculations, Travis Harrison was successful at a higher percentage for bringing possible baserunners in to score.

 

If I look at this for Hunter vs. Mauer vs. Dozier, last year, this is what I find:

 

Hunter: 17.8%

Mauer: 15.1%

Dozier: 12.0%

 

Dozier had 400 total baserunner's on base to drive in during the season. Hunter 370. Mauer 337.

 

Mauer had 81 plate appearances with 2 or more runners on base. Dozier and Hunter each had 95.

 

Mauer had 146 plate appearances with RISP. Dozier 196. Hunter 167.

 

Mauer played 120 games. Dozier 156. Hunter 135.

 

This stuff fascinates me.

[ashbury]

RA: Y'know, if we run into a situation where we don't see somebody being a fit, there's always the possibility of moving some guys or juggling some things around.

 

Translation: RICKEY NOLASCO, LIKE NEW, PLENTY OF TREAD LEFT.  OVERSTOCK DUE TO SHIPPING ERROR, MUST SELL.  TAKE OVER PAYMENTS PLUS C+ PROSPECT, OBO.  CALL SOON, OFFER WONT LAST. (612) 659-3400, TALK TO ANYONE WHO ANSWERS, EVEN THE TICKET SELLERS ARE AUTHORIZED TO DEAL.

[Parker Hageman]

I like Antony a lot. Good guy. He let me do a Q&A with him back in 2010 when we were down in Florida.

 

In our discussion, at that time he said he preferred using RBI over slugging percentage to gauge a player's success. His explanation to me was:

 

“Because you win with runs,” he said. “And I want that guy because you also have the correlation with a better batting average with runners in scoring position – he’s the guy that can step-up, the guy you want at the plate.”

 

 

We interacted a bit this past spring but I've never followed up to see if he still feels the same even after all the growth in the analytics department: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/88615982.html

 

Either way, good dude. 

[jimmer]

I like Antony a lot. Good guy. He let me do a Q&A with him back in 2010 when we were down in Florida.

 

In our discussion, at that time he said he preferred using RBI over slugging percentage to gauge a player's success. His explanation to me was:

 

 

We interacted a bit this past spring but I've never followed up to see if he still feels the same even after all the growth in the analytics department: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/88615982.html

 

Either way, good dude. 

WOW!

[USAFChief]

I like Antony a lot. Good guy. He let me do a Q&A with him back in 2010 when we were down in Florida.

 

In our discussion, at that time he said he preferred using RBI over slugging percentage to gauge a player's success. His explanation to me was:

 

 

 

We interacted a bit this past spring but I've never followed up to see if he still feels the same even after all the growth in the analytics department: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/88615982.html

 

Either way, good dude.

 

I agree with him...looking backward. I'd rather have had the RBI. Same way, looking backward, Id rather have W's from a starter than ERA or FIP or any other stat.

 

RBI equal runs. W's equal, well, W's.

 

The question is, which is a better tool to guesstimate the future.

 

I honestly don't know, but I do believe the answer isn't as clear as proponents of either measure sometimes proclaim.

[jimmer]

There is no way I'd judge a player based on stats that are so very much dependent on the play of others, which RBI, Runs, Win/losses for pitcher.  I like what Cameron said in today's chat.  Someone said, 'Finish this sentence: Runs and RBIs are a good stat for'  He said 'The 1800s'. I could not agree more.

[Old Twins Cap]

All that is true about RBI being a count stat and let's just use OBP or OPS, until, it's the top of 8 in Yankee Stadium, tie game, and you have a guy who walked against Betances on first base.  You need that run to score.  Period.  When I watch the Twins, I say to myself:  "Who is going to get a clutch hit, on the road, to beat a good team?"  That's not necessarily counting RBIs, it's about knowing the moment in the game and seeing who can make it happen.  Great teams get contributions from everyone.  The Twins, we need it from someone.

[USAFChief]

There is no way I'd judge a player based on stats that are so very much dependent on the play of others, which RBI, Runs, Win/losses for pitcher.  I like what Cameron said in today's chat.  Someone said, 'Finish this sentence: Runs and RBIs are a good stat for'  He said 'The 1800s'. I could not agree more.

Cameron says many things.

 

I remember when he said the Twins where the 5th best organization in MLB.

 

He said that in April, 2010.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/organizational-rankings-recap/

[jimmer]

I don't know if i would say just yet that the pitching staff isn't that good.  Signing Santana will provide a dramatic improvements IMO.  Benching Nolasco and Pelfrey if they don't perform in favor of younger prospects like May, Meyer, Milone and eventually Berrios could be a blessing in disguise.  It wouldn't happen under Gardy who became a player's manager late in his career instead of a baseball fundamentalist.  There's no reason to trot Pelfrey or Nolasco out for 20+ starts when they are losing a majority of their games with this kind of talent in AAA. 

I think there's a lot of HOPING in there, which isn't a substitute for knowing you had a good rotation.  Even if the young guys come in (and I use that word young loosely when talking about Meyer), its gonna take time for them to adjust like it does for most (not all).

[glunn]

I think there's a lot of HOPING in there, which isn't a substitute for knowing you had a good rotation.  Even if the young guys come in (and I use that word young loosely when talking about Meyer), its gonna take time for them to adjust like it does for most (not all).

 

You make a good point, but maybe 2015 is a good year for a lot of the younger players to get their feet wet, assuming that the Twins are not contending.