Brian Dozier Extension

[TheLeviathan]

I think the downside could be the opposite as well....only if everything goes wrong. I think Dozier has to regress a ton at the plate to not be at least an average 2B.

 

Not a ton - in 2013 he was a 98 OPS+ player.  Dozier is a good player, but his margin for error is not as high as people seem to think, just by the nature of the type of player he is.  (See Dan Uggla or Aaron Hill, though Dozier is a better defender)

 

The thing that you seem to omit is that the Twins are currently protected from long-term risk should everything go wrong.  Signing him to an extension not only eliminates that protection, but it has a bunch of money hanging over the team should things turn sour.  So you've compounded the problem.

 

Also, handing out money to create trade value seems like an even worse reason to give an extension.

[tobi0040]

Not a ton - in 2013 he was a 98 OPS+ player.  Dozier is a good player, but his margin for error is not as high as people seem to think, just by the nature of the type of player he is.  (See Dan Uggla or Aaron Hill, though Dozier is a better defender)

 

The thing that you seem to omit is that the Twins are currently protected from long-term risk should everything go wrong.  Signing him to an extension not only eliminates that protection, but it has a bunch of money hanging over the team should things turn sour.  So you've compounded the problem.

 

Also, handing out money to create trade value seems like an even worse reason to give an extension.

 

That league average hitter (OPS + of 98) at a premium position is still a net positive, on top of playing above average defense there as well.

 

I could not find a ranking by position with OPS plus, so will default to OPS.  In 2013, Dozier's OPS was .726.  That would have made him 10th among 2B in 2014. So I don't think the downside is really a terrible scenario.   Especially in a world where the likes of Chase Headley makes $44M over 4 years, Lowrie makes $23M over 3 years (in 2014 dollars) .  I get that Headley is a 3B....but similar values.

 

Regarding the trade vaue. I would not sign him to an extension strictly to increase his trade value.  I prefer him being a Twin throughout that deal.  But when we are running through scenarios, that is certainly one of them.

 

I think we should leave it here.....we don't need to sign Dozier to an extension right now.  Positives and negatives exist for both aproaches.  I thnk the risk-reward favors signing him, you think it favors waiting, or maybe not at all (not sure if you stated which of those two).

[stringer bell]

Hands down, Dozier has been the Twins best position player in the last two years.  I was hoping he would get an All-Star appearance out of last year and I do hope that he gets that recognition as a member of the Twins.  He's been a nice story and is also a good guy from (limited) personal experience and what I've seen in the media.  Does that justify an extension?  By itself, of course not.  The Twins need to see where his value is going, if there is a less expensive replacement on the horizon, and project what he is going to do in the future. 

 

I don't see any reason to rush into an extension, but if things are trending favorably for BD a year from now, it might be a wise thing to do.

[kab21]

Oh, I get the reasoning, I just tend to skew on the conservative side... For example, I wouldn't have given Hughes an extension this offseason, either. I don't think it's necessarily a bad move, nor is it one I objected to, I just believe in waiting it out a bit. It will cost you more money on occasion but it also prevents Joe Mays type contracts (not a great comparison, as both Hughes and Dozier are better players than Mays).

 

Hughes is a completely different case than Dozier.  Yes, he had only played the first year of his 3 yr contract but Hughes was only 2 years away from FA.  That's the magic number where you can still get a discount for extending a player.  Hughes said himself that it might be difficult to get his agent to the negotiating table next offseason. 

 

Dozier is 4 years away and his arb years already end in his 30's.  The reality is that Dozier is more like a young player that has been extended since his cost controlled years end at a time when you expect him to decline.

[tobi0040]

Hughes is a completely different case than Dozier.  Yes, he had only played the first year of his 3 yr contract but Hughes was only 2 years away from FA.  That's the magic number where you can still get a discount for extending a player.  Hughes said himself that it might be difficult to get his agent to the negotiating table next offseason. 

 

Dozier is 4 years away and his arb years already end in his 30's.  The reality is that Dozier is more like a young player that has been extended since his cost controlled years end at a time when you expect him to decline.

 

I think Dozier can be a good player at 32-33.  Looking at the amount of money thrown at Jed Lowrie and Chase Headley now makes it appealing, to me to lock in two FA years at 8-9M a year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hughes is a completely different case than Dozier. Yes, he had only played the first year of his 3 yr contract but Hughes was only 2 years away from FA. That's the magic number where you can still get a discount for extending a player. Hughes said himself that it might be difficult to get his agent to the negotiating table next offseason.

 

Dozier is 4 years away and his arb years already end in his 30's. The reality is that Dozier is more like a young player that has been extended since his cost controlled years end at a time when you expect him to decline.

That was kind of my point. Hughes' extension was a no-brainer compared to Dozier yet I'm not sure I would have pursued that extension either. That's why I wouldn't trip over myself to extend Dozier, though I'm not adamantly against it, either.

[kab21]

If you don't pursue a Hughes extension then there's a good chance that he walks or is traded in the next two years.  That doesn't make the team better.  just more rebuilding.

[laloesch]

Forget Zimmerman and Espinosa.  Twins have the position of strength here.  Nats need a second baseman badly and the Twins don't have to settle in trading Dozier.   If I were Ryan i'd ask for Lucas Giolito as the key piece of any deal.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like Dozier for Giolito, but I don't know if the Nats would do that. Problem with trading Dozier right now is that there really isn't a replacement, unless people are sold on Escobar. Rosario might be that guy in a year (if he isn't in LF) and Polanco may be that guy in 2, but neither of them are sure things to replicate what Dozier is doing now.

[strumdatjaguar]

Unrealistic!!! Why not ask for Strasburg and Harper, too?   If the Twins want Lucas Giolito, they'd need to add a little bit more than Brian Dozier.   Giolito is a top 20 prospect..  If Dozier got run over by a truck and the Twins became desperate for a 2nd Baseman, I doubt the Twins would trade Kohl Stewart (rated lower than Guilito) for an above-average (at best) guy like Dozier.

[Brandon]

Unrealistic!!! Why not ask for Strasburg and Harper, too?   If the Twins want Lucas Giolito, they'd need to add a little bit more than Brian Dozier.   Giolito is a top 20 prospect..  If Dozier got run over by a truck and the Twins became desperate for a 2nd Baseman, I doubt the Twins would trade Kohl Stewart (rated lower than Guilito) for an above-average (at best) guy like Dozier.

Washington is in win now mode.  I would only trade Dozier for a better value and Giolito may be it and don't forget Dozier is still inexpensive which is another huge benefit for the Nationals at this time.  We would win that trade but Washington would get a real good piece of their puzzle at their weakest position on a team that is already likely to be a 90+ win team this year.  I am not saying Washington does this trade, but I don't think they wouldn't either.

 

And with all of that being said I don't think the Twins are looking to trade Dozier on any front at this point.  I honestly think the Twins think they are real close to contending that if a few things break right for them they could be in the race this season. 

[akmanak]

How about nearly 70 extra base hits, 89 walks, and 20 stolen bases. The average is a little low but let's not let that alone define him as a hitter. He was 3rd in the MLB for 2nd basemen in offensive WAR last year even with that .242 average. He was a quality player at the plate last year, especially for the position he plays.

[akmanak]

This is a valid point. I would like to see him sign 3.75-4.25 million range for 3 years. Toss in some incentives with an option for 4.

[Paul Pleiss]

This thread continues to amaze me. I keep hearing about how great Dozier is with the glove, and what a slick defender he is. Yes, I think he is better than what the defensive metrics showed in 2014, but I don't think he's an above average defender. He looks better than he is because he makes a lot of flashy plays, plays that maybe don't look so flashy if he was a better defender.

 

I'm against the extension, especially if it only buys out a single season of FA. And I don't know why Dozier or the Twins would want to lock up a deal for longer.

 

There's a lot of time between today and Dozier being a free agent. Terry Ryan needs to keep the Pohlands money in his pocket on this one.

 

That being said, if the Twins can sign him to a 6 year deal with an AAV of no more than 4mil, I do that. Buy low. That's still enough money to change his life completely, without sacrificing the Twins spending potential in the future. But I'm not sure BD would take that deal. I wouldnt.

[kab21]

Dozier has a chance at making 4M in his first year of arb.  Probably 3M but there's no way that the Twins at this time lock up Dozier for 4M AAV. 

 

The 6 yr deal is exactly what the Twins should be avoiding with Dozier.  He will be 34 yrs old by the end. 

 

If someone really wanted to sign him to an extension this year it should be a 2M (non arb year), 4M, 8M, 10M (option in his last arb year) and a 12M (option - 1st FA year).  That gets Dozier some guaranteed money and a non arb year bump from the MLB minimum.  It gets the Twins cost certainty, modest guaranteed money and gives them an option for one FA year. 

 

This is very similar to the contract that Span signed that gives the Nats the option of buying out his first FA year but was signed before he hit arb.  And people will deny it but there were complainers about Span's contract especially after he struggled and was injured.  It ended up being such a good deal that the Twins got Meyer back for him.

[Paul Pleiss]

Dozier has a chance at making 4M in his first year of arb.  Probably 3M but there's no way that the Twins at this time lock up Dozier for 4M AAV. 

 

The 6 yr deal is exactly what the Twins should be avoiding with Dozier.  He will be 34 yrs old by the end. 

 

I agree that a 6  year deal is ludacris. I was just saying that if Dozier is willing to accept a significant home team deal (4M AAV) then there could be reason to sign him to that long and seemingly precarious deal, because 24mil over six years is essentially nothing in MLB terms.

[SwainZag]

I agree that a 6  year deal is ludacris. I was just saying that if Dozier is willing to accept a significant home team deal (4M AAV) then there could be reason to sign him to that long and seemingly precarious deal, because 24mil over six years is essentially nothing in MLB terms.

 

And at right now Dozier and his agent would laugh at such a deal.

[tobi0040]

And at right now Dozier and his agent would laugh at such a deal.

 

By my calculation, a 6 year deal would buy out three arb years where he may make a total of $13-15M, and two FA years where he could push $10M or more per year.

 

Not much incentive for him to sign that

[Brock Beauchamp]

By my calculation, a 6 year deal would buy out three arb years where he may make a total of $13-15M, and two FA years where he could push $10M or more per year.

 

Not much incentive for him to sign that

Zero incentive.

 

A realistic Dozier deal is something around five years, $35-45m ($7-9m per year). That would probably get the job done if the Twins were interested in buying out a FA year (I don't see a reason to buy out more than one under any circumstances... you're already edging into Brian's mid-30s with that deal).

 

I still think he could be had at the upper end of that deal over four years (4/$36m) if he has another good season, which is why I'd probably sit on my hands this offseason and not sign him to an extension.

[tobi0040]

Zero incentive.

 

A realistic Dozier deal is something around five years, $35-45m ($7-9m per year). That would probably get the job done if the Twins were interested in buying out a FA year (I don't see a reason to buy out more than one under any circumstances... you're already edging into Brian's mid-30s with that deal).

 

I still think he could be had at the upper end of that deal over four years (4/$36m) if he has another good season, which is why I'd probably sit on my hands this offseason and not sign him to an extension.

 

With those numbers, I would let it ride too.