Sickels on Arcia

[Physics Guy]

John Sickels posted an article on Oswaldo Arcia today.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/17/6893367/an-insane-prediction-regarding-oswaldo-arcia-minnesota-twins

 

I hope he is correct.

[Mike Sixel]

Written like a Twins' fan!

 

I notice he didn't mention the defense at all. I agree, he can hit. I actually remain hopeful he's a legit OF....

[Physics Guy]

Written like a Twins' fan!

 

I notice he didn't mention the defense at all. I agree, he can hit. I actually remain hopeful he's a legit OF....

Agree, but I have a feeling he is destined for DH.

[Winston Smith]

I'm not sure he doesn't give up as many runs with his outfield play as he produces with the bat. As he gets older he'll just get bigger and slower. If I could get a major league ready starter I'd trade him. We have lots of big slow dh types and we need some good defensive outfielders to help out the pitching staff, imo.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Yes, a DH in RF. We can only have so many players at DH.... Vargas, Pinto, Mauer, Arcia...see what I'm saying? He has to hit RF if Vargas or Pinto can be legit DH guys.

[drjim]

I do think if you want to dream on a player type, it is wise to dream on hitters with legit power. K/BB is very important, but mashing is talent.

 

His defense obviously leaves a little to be desired, but pair him with an elite CF (ahem Buxton) and a good LF (Rosario/Hicks) and he can be adequate in the field, with perhaps a late inning defensive replacement as well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll drink to that prediction.

[James Richter]

I agree that he's a good breakout candidate for next year. I thought his approach was noticeably better in September - more balls going to the middle of the field and beating the shift. I will be thrilled if Steamer's projection on his improved K% comes true. Also notice their projection for his defense: -10 Def over 130 G. That would be a slight improvement over his work this year, something that I think can be accomplished if Arcia and the new coaches make it a point of focus.

[TheLeviathan]

He'll definitely be a guy I hype as a breakout candidate this year.  Last year it was a bit foolish to think he was going to bust out given his need to adjust, but the adjustments have happened and the power is still there.

 

He could be a fun player to watch next year.

[HitInAPinch]

I'm really high on Arcia.  Bruno was a great influence on Arcia's hitting approach.  Some work on his defense and he's a finished project. 

[Platoon]

If I did my math right, Big Papi was 26 in his last Twins year. In 455 games he hit 58 HR's. At 23 Arcia is on a much higher pace already. He definitely has responded to Bruno's coaching, as he has eliminated some of his ugliest AB's in September. At his age he is not close to maturity either as a hitter or fielder. And no he will not be a Torii type glove man. But for those who advocate his trade, be prepared to weep and gnash your teeth for years. Arcia is a prototype for the next several years. There will be more young players coming, and all of them are going to struggle. Those with the patience to appreciate talent should enjoy themselves. Those looking for instant gratification will be in for a long couple of years.

[Major League Ready]

We should trade him if another teams believes in that prediction enough give a return appropriate for the player Sickels predicts he will become.  If not, we should stay patient. I really don't see his value dropping and Sickels prediction might just come true.

[DocBauer]

If I did my math right, Big Papi was 26 in his last Twins year. In 455 games he hit 58 HR's. At 23 Arcia is on a much higher pace already. He definitely has responded to Bruno's coaching, as he has eliminated some of his ugliest AB's in September. At his age he is not close to maturity either as a hitter or fielder. And no he will not be a Torii type glove man. But for those who advocate his trade, be prepared to weep and gnash your teeth for years. Arcia is a prototype for the next several years. There will be more young players coming, and all of them are going to struggle. Those with the patience to appreciate talent should enjoy themselves. Those looking for instant gratification will be in for a long couple of years.

This! Big time this!

 

For those that would chastise how slowly the Twins supposedly promote players, Arcia is the perfect anti-example. Tremendous talent and future ability, promoted very quickly as he tore up the minors. He's shown flashes but is not a finished product. What's so unexpected about that? He has enough range, given more time, experience and coaching to improve, and has. He has more than enough arm as well. He doesn't have to be a gold glover to be solid with a big arm and great offensive ability. This is not the kind of talent you give up quickly on. Just how good could he be in 2-3 years when he's only 26? You don't remove young talent like this, you acquire and keep it.

[Otwins]

Exploring what you can trade him for is not giving up on him. You only trade if you get what you need in return. I like Vargas better at DH because he switch hits. Twins were minus 23 runs saved last year in right field. We need outfielders that can field. Could Arcia improve in the field? That is likely but he has a long way to go to get to bad. I wouldn't give him away but if some GM values him like Sickells and can DH him more I would be talking.

[big dog]

One thing I appreciate about Arcia defensively is that he always appears to be trying.  He's not loafing, he doesn't give up on balls, he listens to the centerfielder.  He tries to make throws he shouldn't make, but that's a lot better problem than having a noodle arm.  I think he has the potential to make big steps as an outfielder and it looks like he cares enough that it might not be hard to get him there.

[stringer bell]

I think Arcia has the tools to be OK in right field. He also wants to be good.  I don't think he has worked hard enough to this point, and he will need to work.  He isn't glacier slow and he has a strong arm.  There definitely was improvement last year. 

[twinsfan34]

I actually think his defense is pretty good. He has a good arm and he's aware. He's had a number of plays where going to his left when a faster runner hit one down the line and he spun and threw in one motion to get the ball into second to hold the runner to a single. I also distinctly remember him doing the same when a fast runner (Dyson in KC if I remember right) was on 3rd for such a play and he caught a ball in foul territory going away and to his left and in one swift motion he turned and fired a rocket to home, surprsing Dyson and holding him on 3rd. These were not average player plays. According to B-Ref he only 'cost' us 4 runs last year. A little below average. His range factor was actually better than the average RF. He also had 8 assists in 88 GS/complete games in RF. He's not Jon Jay who on a shallow fly to RF, 15 feet from the IF ground, let Billy Hamilton tag up from 3rd. So the guy is aware and he has a strong arm. His 'lacking' is some over-aggressiveness in some plays in throws he shouldn't have made. But he's aware of the runners and has a '6.5 grade' arm.

 

If he cuts down on throws he shouldn't make with a little more accuracy on his throws he'd be top 5-8 among RFs. He was far and away our best, most natural outfielder this year the Twins had. Everyone else looked lost a majority of the time. Exceptions: Shaefer and Hicks, but they weren't season long regulars. Even Fuld had poor paths to balls.

 

And I think he'll mash too. It's a matter of discipline like Chris Davis of the Orioles. If he can discipline himself he's a 35-45 HR .270+ with 170K type of guy. No discipline/approach? .240 28-32 HR 210K type of guy.

 

Worst case a worthy RF pushes him to LF and he becomes an even better OF. IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

One thing I appreciate about Arcia defensively is that he always appears to be trying.  He's not loafing, he doesn't give up on balls, he listens to the centerfielder.  He tries to make throws he shouldn't make, but that's a lot better problem than having a noodle arm.  I think he has the potential to make big steps as an outfielder and it looks like he cares enough that it might not be hard to get him there.

 

That's fair - he does try hard, but he's just completely out of his comfort zone and it is obvious watching him.  He's a DH with an outfielder's glove and I don't seem him ever being more than that.

[DocBauer]

I actually think his defense is pretty good. He has a good arm and he's aware. He's had a number of plays where going to his left when a faster runner hit one down the line and he spun and threw in one motion to get the ball into second to hold the runner to a single. I also distinctly remember him doing the same when a fast runner (Dyson in KC if I remember right) was on 3rd for such a play and he caught a ball in foul territory going away and to his left and in one swift motion he turned and fired a rocket to home, surprsing Dyson and holding him on 3rd. These were not average player plays. According to B-Ref he only 'cost' us 4 runs last year. A little below average. His range factor was actually better than the average RF. He also had 8 assists in 88 GS/complete games in RF. He's not Jon Jay who on a shallow fly to RF, 15 feet from the IF ground, let Billy Hamilton tag up from 3rd. So the guy is aware and he has a strong arm. His 'lacking' is some over-aggressiveness in some plays in throws he shouldn't have made. But he's aware of the runners and has a '6.5 grade' arm.

 

If he cuts down on throws he shouldn't make with a little more accuracy on his throws he'd be top 5-8 among RFs. He was far and away our best, most natural outfielder this year the Twins had. Everyone else looked lost a majority of the time. Exceptions: Shaefer and Hicks, but they weren't season long regulars. Even Fuld had poor paths to balls.

 

And I think he'll mash too. It's a matter of discipline like Chris Davis of the Orioles. If he can discipline himself he's a 35-45 HR .270+ with 170K type of guy. No discipline/approach? .240 28-32 HR 210K type of guy.

 

Worst case a worthy RF pushes him to LF and he becomes an even better OF. IMO.

Is it my imagination, or does Arcia look more comfortable moving to his left? It could be a SSS on my part watching him, or again my imagination, but the thought has struck me a couple times. It seems right and back to the gap, or right and in gives him more difficulty. The way the ball comes off the bat? If there's anything to this, maybe a step or two right and back would make him more comfortable. Especially with his arm, I'd rather see a ball land in front of him rather than skip through on a race and dive play.