Article: The Painful Truth?

[Mike Sixel]

So in every post, EVERYONE, has to include all the positives and all the negatives? Every post will be like 15 paragraphs then.

[bird]

Uh, I specifically mentioned Hughes and Suzuki in the context of being the good moves.

 

And regardless of the specifics of the White Sox situation, their (relatively modest) cash-only risk on Abreu was mutually exclusive of their prospects and farm development.

Uh, I didn't see anything in the Hughes/Suzuki sentence that connoted "good", but good, we agree, as I thought we might, about good moves like hughes and Suzuki versus bad ones like Bartlett and Kubel.

 

This is a good topic for another thread, but you are seeing the Abreu move as mutually exclusive of their farm development, and a modest risk. I see it as 100% a reaction to their farm system, but I also saw it as a huge but understandable risk for them to take. Fortunately for them, they hit the jackpot, so give them credit. Now they just need to take the same type of gamble 2-3 more times, and voila, they're in the hunt for a wild card slot. I'll take my chances on Sano and Buxton getting us there faster, for a lot less, with a better chance to stay there. 

Edited October 15, 2014 by bird

[Mike Sixel]

Or, they rapidly promote Rodon, AND sign a FA. It isn't just about FA for the Sox. I think I read recently (KLAW maybe?) that the White Sox have a very good farm system, top to bottom......like in the top 10.

[bird]

So in every post, EVERYONE, has to include all the positives and all the negatives? Every post will be like 15 paragraphs then.

Nah, mike, not EVERYONE, just you. To shorten it, just leave off several off your standard negatives.

[TNTwinsFan]

Shields and a quality LF should do the trick. Shields on a 4-5 yr deal and that LF on a 2-3 yr deal. I dunno who that LF is...maybe Cruz? Poor defense there. Who else is out there?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's an idea.....maybe Ryan, when making statements about the team in prior years, was just giving his opinion about things.  He doesn't know exactly how things should or could play out, so he is offering up how he sees at that time.

 

Take free agency: some people act like he should just say "We are going to sign a high end pitcher".  Well, he might try his best to make that happen and, newsflash, finds out that people with choices don't want to come here, even for the same amount of money.

Well, acquiring talent is part of his job.  If he's been trying for 3 years and has been shutout (or the biggest spend he could make was Ricky Nolasco), that's hardly a mark in his favor as GM of a MLB team.

[bird]

Or, they rapidly promote Rodon, AND sign a FA. It isn't just about FA for the Sox. I think I read recently (KLAW maybe?) that the White Sox have a very good farm system, top to bottom......like in the top 10.

 

Well, we were discussing Abreu, because last year it WAS just about FA for the Sox, as their farm system had zero to offer for 2014.

 

But yes, it appears the Whitie's farm system, which was ranked #28 by at least one source last year, is improving rapidly. And as you of all people know, mike, this is because they don't stink at developing players, unlike the Twins. It has absolutely nothing to do with the draft order.

Edited October 15, 2014 by bird

[Mike Sixel]

Nah, mike, not EVERYONE, just you. To shorten it, just leave off several off your standard negatives.

 

See, now that was funny. I hope everyone else took it that way.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, we were discussing Abreu, but yes, it appears the Whitie's farm system, which was ranked #28 by at least one source last year, is improving rapidly. And as you of all people know, mike, this is because they don't stink at developing players, unlike the Twins. It has absolutely nothing to do with the draft order.

 

I've never said that. Here is what I've said (like, almost word for word):

 

1. It is easier to draft at the top of the draft. I acknowledge that.

2. If your strategy is to largely ignore elite FAs, and to not trade for expensive MLB players, you need to be BETTER than other teams at drafting and developing to remain relevant. If you are just as good as everyone else, you probably shouldn't have your 6 figure or 7 job.

3. In the time Beane has been the GM, they've never lost 90 games. They have never had to tank to remain competitive (though it hasn't worked every year).

4. The Cards and other teams have found ways to consistently draft late, and develop players. I have no idea if it is luck or skill.

5. I think that something went wrong in the draft for this team. I don't know that it is JUST drafting late. They missed on a lot of high picks for several years, including years with more than 2 supplemental picks. It appears that their picks after round 1 are better the last few years. A change was made in scouting director, I think, and it appears to be working.

 

I have never once failed to acknowledge that draft order matters.......I have consistently said that if you won't/don't sign many FAs, you need to be better than other teams, not just the same as them. I have also said that four straight years of 90+ losses indicates something is wrong in player development, as does the need for 80% of your SP staff being from outside your org.......

[DocBauer]

Hate to rehash old comments, but sometimes, they can have a direct, affecting correlation to new comments. Therefore.......

 

2010, our Twins were a top ML club, division winner and playoff participant with a 94 win team and virtually everyone back for 2011. Everyone felt the Twins were again a top team and division/playoff contender for 2011 with almost the entire team back plus or minus a few alterations.

 

We all know what happened in 2011. Ryan's fault? Gardy's fault? FO not spending enough on payroll? No, no and no. No fault, no double talk, no cheapskates as the Twins had the highest payroll in their existence to keep the team together.

 

2012 is debatable. Some would say after such a horrible and snakebit and disappointing season such as 2011, the Twins should have been smart enough and long sighted enough to blow the team up then and begin over. However, the Twins perspective was to make a few moves, simply get healthy again, and keep the team at its 3rd HIGHEST PAYROLL EVER while looking for a rebound season.

 

So when we talk about 4 consecutive losing seasons, payroll and responsibility, we need to keep perspective and not simply get lost in vitriol over consecutive disappointments.

 

Now, if Ryan ever has been blindly naive, or disingenuous with the fanbase, it would be for 2013 and 2014. But as forthright and optimistic as Ryan has generally been, I wouldn't have expected him to just announce to everyone that the team was going to probably lose, that few if any prospects were ready yet, so just hang on.

 

Right now, it appears the FO is talking out of both sides of their mouth, and they probably are in fact. But the season is just ended, team winter organization meetings just started, and we're a long way from actual trade and FA season. Not sure why the Twins would tip their hand to everyone out there at this point.

 

Rightly or wrongly, I'm putting my faith in actions and not early rhetoric. The Twins made moves to add to the team, and payroll last season. They attempted additional moves that didn't end up happening that would have added more, and in some cases, substantially more. And once again, they did add more with the Morales signing. So for now at least, when I hear two different sets of numbers and perspectives coming out, this early in the game, while examining recent trends by the team, I'm going with the more expensive and optimistic comments that have been presented.

 

 

[bird]

Elaborating on how much better the Sox, among most other teams, are so much better than the Twins, who by your account stink at developing players despite having a high draft order:

 

After Rodon, of the next half-dozen top Sox prospects, NONE were ranked among Sickle's updated top 75 prospects. I think SIX Twins were. The highest grade given any of them was B- and two were C/C+. The lowest ranking for the Twin's half-dozen top prospects, excluding Buxton, was a B+, with Sano ranked as A.

 

Their Tim Anderson (B-) is our Gordon, ranked #42

Their Montas is our Meyer, ranked #31

Their Micah Johnson is our Polanco

Their Hawkins, our Sano

Their Spencer Adams, our Berrios

Their Tyler Danish, our Kohl Stewart

 

And our next six probably grade out ahead of all, or at least most, of the Sox  #'s 2-7: May, Burdi, Thorpe, Rosario, ABWIII, Rogers.

 

Give the Sox credit for Abreau and some good trades to shore up a declining team, and for a good draft in 2014. But please, don't insinuate that they're somehow upstaging the Twins right now.  

[Linus]

Well, acquiring talent is part of his job.  If he's been trying for 3 years and has been shutout (or the biggest spend he could make was Ricky Nolasco), that's hardly a mark in his favor as GM of a MLB team.

Obviously.  The article was written about the the manner in which Ryan was expressing himself, not his track record in acquiring talent.  My post was specifically addressing the point of the article which is, fans' reaction to things that are said by TR. 

 

If you want to rip into his track record, go ahead.  I'm pretty sure its been done before but that's not what I am talking about.

[bird]

And I'm sorry, my friend, but you have ignored the possible impact of the draft order VERY consistently throughout all our friendly conversations over the years, not once acknowledging it when I brought it up. But at least you're finally acknowledging that you have to go back a few year to find a draft year that busted, so that's progress.

 

Now, if we can temper things a bit from "they stink at developing players" to something more in line with reality and fairness...

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, where did I or anyone say the Sox were better right now? The place they are better, imo, is that they have been more aggressive in promoting players, and in signing FAs. No place did I say they were better. someone else might have......I did say there was a path for them to get better, that involved both their farm system and signing FAs (just as I'd say for the Twins).

[James Richter]

While I'm not certain what TR was getting at with the decisions that "don't look exactly like you want right now" line, it made me think of Nolasco. Based on comments I've read here over the past few weeks, it seems nearly universal that he's a failure with nothing to offer over the remainder of his contract, already a sunk cost. Gang, his full season xFIP was 3.99, and his post-DL xFIP was 3.71. His BABIP allowed this year was .050 higher than his career average. It is completely reasonable to expect him to have a 2015 much more in line with his track record, and that our perception of TR's decision to sign him will be much more favorable 12 months from now.

 

I wish TR hadn't stated an intention to stay competitive right before signing Correia and Pelfrey 2 years ago. To me, it didn't signal that he was disingenuous so much as that he didn't understand what kind of SP would actually make a difference. He took a step forward by selecting Hughes and Nolasco, but then he signed Pelfrey again, and for 2 years. I'm not sure I want him tying up a bunch more money on veteran FAs until I see some consistency in his ability to properly value the players on the market.

[Mike Sixel]

And I'm sorry, my friend, but you have ignored the possible impact of the draft order VERY consistently throughout all our friendly conversations over the years, not once acknowledging it when I brought it up. But at least you're finally acknowledging that you have to go back a few year to find a draft year that busted, so that's progress.

 

Now, if we can temper things a bit from "they stink at developing players" to something more in line with reality and fairness...

 

No, I haven't. I've typed those words many times.

[h2oface]

Check out Gleeman's take on all this.  I tend to agree with him, as he suggests the Twins' FO has a distorted view of themselves...

 

http://aarongleeman.com

The fact that Terry Ryan is still in position to be making these decisions makes my days thinking about the Twins' future glum.   Great article by Gleeman.

 

As the Nats tried to convert from being a patsy to the contender they are, they knew that it was important to get good free agents........ not Nolasco and Pelfrey types.... but really good established players.  The had several years of rejections, as the top free agents wouldn't sign with them, but they kept at it.  Starting with Werth, who they may have paid too much for, it started to come around.  One might have to pay too much for the first signee, but that will get the momentum started.  The Twins have an attractive group soon to arrive, and now is the time to invest in the Ace that will help lead the staff to the promised land.

[bird]

No, I haven't. I've typed those words many times.

I apologize. I missed it then every time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is a good topic for another thread, but you are seeing the Abreu move as mutually exclusive of their farm development, and a modest risk. I see it as 100% a reaction to their farm system, but I also saw it as a huge but understandable risk for them to take. Fortunately for them, they hit the jackpot, so give them credit. Now they just need to take the same type of gamble 2-3 more times, and voila, they're in the hunt for a wild card slot. I'll take my chances on Sano and Buxton getting us there faster, for a lot less, with a better chance to stay there. 

100% a reaction to their farm system?

 

Is that why over half of MLB teams have bought international FA during the last 3 years?  Were all of them reacting to their farm systems, or did they see an immediate risk-reward opportunity that wasn't available to them anywhere else?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Obviously.  The article was written about the the manner in which Ryan was expressing himself, not his track record in acquiring talent.  My post was specifically addressing the point of the article which is, fans' reaction to things that are said by TR. 

 

If you want to rip into his track record, go ahead.  I'm pretty sure its been done before but that's not what I am talking about.

That's great, but to use your charitable interpretation of TR's comments, you have to look at his actions too

 

I don't think anyone EXPECTING to play meaningful games in September would settle for the Twins recent offseason hauls.  I have no doubt he was HOPING to play those meaningful games, but hope is cheap.

[jokin]

Check out Gleeman's take on all this.  I tend to agree with him, as he suggests the Twins' FO has a distorted view of themselves...

 

http://aarongleeman.com

That was then:

 

http://aarongleeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/pohlad-ryan-st.peter_1.jpg

 

This is now (or was this a photo of today's CDC hearing? Either way, the "fan reaction" behind the pictured trio is hilarious.... and is also about the same for both organizations):

 

  http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/facepalm-triple.jpg

[Linus]

No, I don't have to look at his actions in this thread because that is not what the article is about.  Perhaps you should re-read it.

 

My interpretations are not charitable: they are stating something very obvious.  No matter what he says or how he says it, he is going to be criticized.  I don't think there is much argument there.  If you think there is, better spend some time re-reading the 9000 threads doing exactly the same.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with Linus, as with most public figures, no matter what he says, someone will complain.*

 

*was that enough parentheticals?

[Winston Smith]

Mike I'm not real happy with what you just said but I'm not going to complain, today anyway!

[bird]

100% a reaction to their farm system?

 

Is that why over half of MLB teams have bought international FA during the last 3 years?  Were all of them reacting to their farm systems, or did they see an immediate risk-reward opportunity that wasn't available to them anywhere else?

Yes, because they were rather low on other options to dramatically improve in 2014. They outbid everyone for Abreu because they needed to react to their rather gloomy situation. And remember, the Sox had a scandal with their international scouts awhile back, which hurt their credibility internationally. So they needed a big score, and to their credit, they got one.

 

As for the question about teams "buying international FA over the past 3 years? Not sure what you'd be driving at, but I'd guess ALL teams are participating in international markets, and dong so does not constitute the kind of reactive move winning the Abreu bidding war suggests.

[jokin]

Yes, because they were rather low on other options to dramatically improve in 2014. They outbid everyone for Abreu because they needed to react to their rather gloomy situation... 

 

For a second there, I was certain you were talking about the Twins...

[ashbury]

  http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/facepalm-triple.jpg

 

"NONE of you guys brought the pizza rolls?"

 

_{^{cf. Parker's "Mom made pizza rolls" meme some time back...}}

[bird]

For a second there, I was certain you were talking about the Twins...

Well, the Sox had few minor league players to rely on. Remember, you and I had the conversation in the spring about Eric Anderson, Matt Davison (acquired for one of their very top prospects, Addison Reed), and Micah Johnson. Johnson and Davidson really disappointed big time, and Micah Johnson is probably not a true impact player, and was certainly not enough. The Sox wisely went the trade route and "overbid" for Abreu.

 

The Twins, OTH, expected to have Sano and Buxton until late in the offseason, but they also had other options, as we saw play out with May, Vargas, Santana, and a few others. So they took the same route of using FA to get Nolasco and Hughes, but Ryan decided against trades to further improve 2014, for better or for worse, depending on your viewpoint.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As for the question about teams "buying international FA over the past 3 years? Not sure what you'd be driving at, but I'd guess ALL teams are participating in international markets, and dong so does not constitute the kind of reactive move winning the Abreu bidding war suggests.

I don't think all teams are participating in Cuban or Asian free agent markets, no.

 

Over half of MLB teams have bought notable Cuban or Asian free agents since TR took over in 2011.  I do not think they were reactive.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No, I don't have to look at his actions in this thread because that is not what the article is about.  Perhaps you should re-read it.

Pretty sure Nick examines TR's past actions in his article, and also discusses future actions he hopes for.

 

But I will simply drop this line of discussion rather than tell you to re-read anything.