Twins 2015 Bullpen

[DocBauer]

To state the obvious, in the past 27 years, the era that began with TK and McPhail, the Twins have seemingly ALWAYS enjoyed a solid/good to great bullpen. In fact, even in the recent four year 90 loss stretch, until getting overworked, the Steins have STILL had quality bullpens, as they did previously for TK during some of his poor stretches. For whatever, good, reason, the team has found a real niche in this area. And it's not something as easy to do as the Twins make it seem. At the risk of depiction and obvious point, how much would the Tigers have been the past few seasons if they ANYONE to rely on?

 

There have been a handful of trades that brought in top guys like Reardon, Aggie and Nathan, even Capps. Our own minor league system brought guys like Trombley, Guardado, Hawkins and Perkins, just to name a few. Many of those cut their teeth first as setup men, and the system has produced a number of those. Waiver wire type FA have paid HUGE dividends from Berenguer and Atherton and Willis, and more recently Guerrier and Burton, again, just to name a few.

 

The team would seem to facing a bit of a transition for the pen in 2015, and just beyond. First and foremost, Perkins should be back strong as an all star caliber reliever next season. Fien has been another outstanding find, and has pitched good to lights out since his signing, with the exception of a late season fade this year. However, I do like him better as a 7th inning guy than a true set up man. As a veteran LH, and based on last performance, and agreeable contract numbers, I feel Duensing will be back, though this may be his final season. His SO rate was down this year, but he's experienced, solid, and pitched quite well this year until he also faded near the end. That would appear to be 3 out of 7 spots spoken for. Who fills out the remaining 4 spots, at least initially?

 

Swarzak's final numbers weren't terrible, but he seemed very inconsistent this year. Still, he's been solid, and he's cheap to bring back. I'm really not sure what shot Pino has, but as a cheap AAA filler who could challenge for a long spot. Based on milb ability, some experience at the ML level, I was excited to see Pressley, Achter, Tonkin and Oliveros in September. Then they all pretty much laid duds. Though it did seem they all rallied in some late appearances. If healthy, I'm very intrigued about the idea of Pelfrey cutting loose in the pen as anything from a long to mid to potential setup option.

 

From the port side we have Thielbar, possibly Thompson, possibly Johnson, and I have a good feeling about Darnell as a reliever. I think Milone could also be an outstanding option for long and mid relief and be a possible swing man.

 

I previously believed and stated I felt the Twins should make one quality FA signing for a proven setup man. I felt it was a not very expensive investment to deepen and shore up the back end of the pen. Recently, I have been wavering on this idea. Not because said signee wouldn't be a boon, but because of pure numbers of possibilities, as listed above, and because I've become an optimistic convert as to the rapid rise potential of a handful of recent minor league additions. I was hesitant to embrace the extreme optimism of guys like Burdi and Jake Reed. And I'd throw a healthy again Zack Jones in the mix. I now believe at least one of these youngsters should be ready soon, mid season at worst. What these guys are doing is just nasty. I also have a strong feeling for a very soon arrival Melotakis from the left side, though I am disappointed he was pulled from the AFL.

 

Not including Perkins, who is simply a closer, regardless of handidness, could the Twins go with 3 each from the LH and RH side? Who are the strongest candidates, at least to begin the season, to build the 2015 bullpen?

[DJL44]

I think they need to look outside the organization as well. Reliever performance is volatile. I don't trust anyone but Perkins for next season. Quantity is important.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think they should count on Casey Fien.

 

His strike out rates were off all year - not just the last few months. He can't repeat that rate as an extreme groundball pitcher. If he can't return his strike out rate to the 2013 level (from 20% to 30%), I don't think he should be on the roster.

[Kelly Vance]

Burdi and Reed are better than anyone we have on the big club. Perkins and Fein were looking a little shopworn late in the season. I can see Burdi as a closer in waiting.

[Thrylos]

To state the obvious, in the past 27 years, the era that began with TK and McPhail, the Twins have seemingly ALWAYS enjoyed a solid/good to great bullpen.

 

I think the above is a misconception that seems to be propagated by announcers and the press.

 

Here are 2014 numbers:

 

2014 AL Average RP

ERA: 3.63, FIP 3.68, SIERA 3.38, K% 21.8, WHIP 1.28

 

2014 Twins RP

ERA: 3.73, FIP: 3.88, SIERA 3.84, K% 17.3, WHIP 1.32

 

Not not great, not good, not solid.  Not even average.  The Twins' 2014 bullpen was below average.

[DocBauer]

I think the above is a misconception that seems to be propagated by announcers and the press.

 

Here are 2014 numbers:

 

2014 AL Average RP

ERA: 3.63, FIP 3.68, SIERA 3.38, K% 21.8, WHIP 1.28

 

2014 Twins RP

ERA: 3.73, FIP: 3.88, SIERA 3.84, K% 17.3, WHIP 1.32

 

Not not great, not good, not solid.  Not even average.  The Twins' 2014 bullpen was below average.

A couple of points in response:

 

1) the comments I made were in general overall, and not specific to 2014.

 

2) not sure the 2014 was all that bad finishing a little below the mean, and again overtaxed. Would be interesting to know the rankings at the mid season point vs how they finished up.

 

3) I attempted to go back to 1987 through 2014 for bullpen rankings, but could only find 1999 through 2014 for whatever reason. However, during the 16 years I could find, the Twins bullpen finished 13th overall in ML team ERA. With some revisionist history, ignoring the past 4 90 loss seasons when the SP ERA ranked last or near last and the pen was theoretically overworked, the ranking jumps to 11th. And if a team, overall, ranks in the upper half of the league, I again state the Twins have consistently had a "good" to "excellent" bullpen year to year. Obviously, like any ranking, there are year to year variances. And as it is commonly believed and expected that any individual or team ERA in the AL would be expected to be slightly higher in the more offensive producing AL than the NL. On that principal, I would further lean to the Twins generally having quality pens in regard to their year by year rankings.

 

Not a perfect example, or argument, but I think all of this is noteworthy over time.

[pierre75275]

I have a hard time believing that Reed and Burdi arent with the pen. I think Duensing, Swarsak are gone. And there is no way Burton is back. I think Pressley and Fien and Thielbar and Perkins are with the club. I think that Malone and Pelfrey are in the pen.

That leaves 8 that I think will be in the pen.

[jorgenswest]

Twins relievers were 30th in K rate and 29th in xFIP.

 

Describing the bullpen as below average is generous.

[stringer bell]

I like what Oliveros did at NB and Rochester this year.  His numbers were awful for the Twins in an extremely small sample size.  I know that he has been DFAed twice, but don't know if he has options remaining.  If not, I think he needs a shot in the 2015 bullpen.  Prior should get a look as well, particularly if he recovers he lost velo.  I would hope that the Twins at least look at trading Fien, if he has any value.  He has maximized his talent for some time, but I can see him falling off a cliff.  I like Duensing for his versatility and durability and Thielbar remains a really good story and a competent LH reliever.  However, the team really doesn't need both of those guys. 

 

I do believe that Pierre is right that two prospective starters begin the season in the bullpen.  I think that there will be more shuffling than there has been in the past two years and that guys with options will be moved back and forth quite a bit.  Probably at some point, the prospective starters will leave the long relief realm and there will be more room for actual relief pitchers.   

[Thrylos]

A couple of points in response:

 

1) the comments I made were in general overall, and not specific to 2014.

 

2) not sure the 2014 was all that bad finishing a little below the mean, and again overtaxed. Would be interesting to know the rankings at the mid season point vs how they finished up.

 

3) I attempted to go back to 1987 through 2014 for bullpen rankings, but could only find 1999 through 2014 for whatever reason. However, during the 16 years I could find, the Twins bullpen finished 13th overall in ML team ERA. With some revisionist history, ignoring the past 4 90 loss seasons when the SP ERA ranked last or near last and the pen was theoretically overworked, the ranking jumps to 11th. And if a team, overall, ranks in the upper half of the league, I again state the Twins have consistently had a "good" to "excellent" bullpen year to year. Obviously, like any ranking, there are year to year variances. And as it is commonly believed and expected that any individual or team ERA in the AL would be expected to be slightly higher in the more offensive producing AL than the NL. On that principal, I would further lean to the Twins generally having quality pens in regard to their year by year rankings.

 

Not a perfect example, or argument, but I think all of this is noteworthy over time.

 

I was really responding to the "obvious" and "ALWAYS" of your initial post with just one example showing that it is not always. 

 

I can go back from '87 on and look at the bullpen numbers and I suspect that we will find out that the Twins had a worse than AL average or average pen about 1/2-2/3s of those seasons, better than average pen (aka "solid/good") about 3-4 seasons and a much better than average pen, top 3 pens in the league (aka "great") two to three seasons.   Few Kelly teams had "good" pens.  In '87 the pen had a 5.11 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP and was awful. '91 was better (3.53 ERA, 1.302 WHIP, vs 3.77/1.352 AL average pen, so you can call that "good" or "solid".)

 

Interesting exercise to do, and I suspect that at least half of he Twins' pens since Kelly were below average...

[old nurse]

It would not be unreasonable to judge the bullpen by 2 numbers. Blown saves and losses. Those are the 2 numbers that tell me they did not do the job.

[jorgenswest]

It would not be unreasonable to judge the bullpen by 2 numbers. Blown saves and losses. Those are the 2 numbers that tell me they did not do the job.

Agree. Those describe the results. The xFIP and K rate project the future. Swarzak and Duensing are out of options. They need yet be nontendered. Fien has an option. He might need to start in AAA and show that his strike out skill of 2013 has returned.

[stringer bell]

Agree. Those describe the results. The xFIP and K rate project the future. Swarzak and Duensing are out of options. They need yet be nontendered. Fien has an option. He might need to start in AAA and show that his strike out skill of 2013 has returned.

I doubt the Fien scenario would ever play out as you have laid it out. The Twins aren't going to option Fien because of a low strikeout rate. If he appears to have lost it, they probably would waive him. It is within the realm of possibility that they non-tender the 31 year old. I hope they try to trade him he has any trade value. The 'pen needs to get younger and have more hard throwers who miss bats.

[jorgenswest]

I doubt the Fien scenario would ever play out as you have laid it out. The Twins aren't going to option Fien because of a low strikeout rate. If he appears to have lost it, they probably would waive him. It is within the realm of possibility that they non-tender the 31 year old. I hope they try to trade him he has any trade value. The 'pen needs to get younger and have more hard throwers who miss bats.

Fair enough. Any plan where he is not expected to be the guy in the 7th or 8th inning is OK with me. The ability to option him gives the Twins the opportunity to let him fight for the job or fight back from AAA. Maybe the season long poor strike to rate wean be fixed. Maybe the league figured him out.

[Mike Sixel]

My thoughts:

 

1. All teams need roster flexibility. For a team that limits it's payroll, and has little depth that is MLB ready, the bullpen is the easiest place to do that. Ergo, stop signing vets you can't send up and down to AAA.

 

2. The starters are a huge question mark, the bullpen is likely to get "tired" and "overworked" again. Ergo, you need to be able to send players up and down to AAA.

 

3. Perkins should be dealt, if he has value. This team does not need a closer, it needs players that will be here in 3+ years.

 

4. I'd be ok if the bullpen was virtually all new. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I see a lot of turnover in the pen this offseason, but I think it's more internal than external.  There are guys in the high minors getting the job done, and they are being chanced by guys like Reed, Burdi, and Jones.  While I don't expect any of these 3 to make the pen in 2015 (at least to start), I do think that they are going to jettison guys like Swarzak, Deunsing, and Burton in favor of giving extended looks to Tonkin, Oliveros, Pressley, etc.  With what's coming up, I don't think they have a choice but to start turning over the pen, and I think that there's a lot of reason to be excited about that. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

New manager and new pitching coach means that the pen will definitely be different next season. If it is an external candidate, they will talk up the guys they liked from their org. The Twins might add one or two of those guys, as well as promote younger arms from within.

 

If Burton comes back, I have to believe it would be on a smaller deal after the Twins buy out his option. The Twins can't afford to pay Jared Burton 3.6MM next season, though I bet they would be willing to go as high as 1.5 to 2 MM on a similar "veteran" arm, whatever that means to the Twins. Burton could in theory come back on a new deal, but if the Twins actually pick up that option, I don't - I can't even -

 

Pressley is most likely to stick, I think, from the later season call ups. I wonder what will happen with Pryor - I think the Twins will have a decision to make on him, and I'm not sure that there was a big enough sample of his work for them to go on. I think he might return (either at AAA or the back end of the pen) for awhile just so the Twins can see him pitch a little more.

 

I think all those arms the Twins drafted the last two years gives them lots of (for now) cheap options to choose from.