The real problem with the Gardy Firing....

[Otto von Ballpark]

I thought Terry Ryan explained the contract extension very well. He didn't want Gardy to be constantly asked about his status with a one year deal. He basically said... He didn't care about the extra year of salary that Ron will be getting. I think he was given a two year contract so things would calm down on that front.

It's not the length of the contract that bugs me -- it's that TR and Gardy were at almost this exact crossroads last season, and TR re-upped Gardy.  Then, with minimal change to the roster or payroll, and modest tangible improvement on the field, one year later TR fires the guy.

 

What really changed in that one year?  Doesn't seem to be poor performance related for Gardy (at least no more than TR).

[Craig Arko]

Perhaps it was not.

 

TD members should all receive press credentials, so that hard-hitting questions can be asked of Twins management.

In the bar.

[Kwak]

It's not the length of the contract that bugs me -- it's that TR and Gardy were at almost this exact crossroads last season, and TR re-upped Gardy.  Then, with minimal chage to the roster or payroll, and modest tangible improvement on the field, one year later TR fires the guy.

 

What really changed in that one year?  Doesn't seem to be poor performance related for Gardy (at least no more than TR).

Excuse me--Nolasco, Hughes, Suzuki, Kubel, Bartlett, re-sign Pelfrey--did I miss anybody with a salary well over rookie minimum?  All of these guys could have been replaced from within the organization at minimum salary.  True, that would signify all-out rebuild mode--but save ~$30MM in 2014, lose another 12 games or more, and net the very first selection (and a lot more budget) to sign amateur players. If I were Mr. Pohlad I sure want a lot more for my $30MM that the result obtained--and maybe he did!

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, signing 2 FA SP, a new starting C, and two other FAs? And graduating Gibson full time? That's not minimal change. That's 60% of the rotation, and 25% of the fielders/hitters. That's a good amount of change.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree, signing 2 FA SP, a new starting C, and two other FAs? And graduating Gibson full time? That's not minimal change. That's 60% of the rotation, and 25% of the fielders/hitters. That's a good amount of change.

The new starting catcher was a backup last year, and on a 1 year, $2.75 mil deal.

 

Two other FAs?  Who are they?  Kubel and Bartlett?  Those were non-roster invites to spring training (and should have remained "non-roster" ).  I guess Morales showed up eventually... and don't forget, we also subtracted a couple league-averagish bats in Morneau and Doumit.

 

Basically, a team with a historically bad pitching staff added zero impact prospects, 2 FA starters with career ~94 ERA+ marks, and improved by 4 wins and 12 pythag wins.  I am really not sure how much more Gardy was supposed to do to save his job in 2014.

 

I get the "time for a change" argument, but it does seem to me like he was set up to fail for 2014.

[LaBombo]

 

Basically, a team with a historically bad pitching staff added zero impact prospects, 2 FA starters with career ~94 ERA+ marks, and improved by 4 wins and 12 pythag wins.  I am really not sure how much more Gardy was supposed to do to save his job in 2014.

 

I get the "time for a change" argument, but it does seem to me like he was set up to fail for 2014.

Take out the 32 2013 starts of Scott (5.43) Diamond and PJ (5.95) Walters and plug in 32 starts by Phil Hughes using his pre-2014 4.00-ish career away ERA, and you get about 50 fewer runs allowed by the rotation.

 

If you add 50 earned runs (32x about 1.5 runs per game) to the 2014 pythag calculator, you get 5 more losses than the 87 that the calculator 'credits' them with this year.   Use Hughesies's 3.50-ish pre-2014 road FIP and you get a six win improvement.

 

So Gardenhire stood to gain not only the four extra wins he actually did get if Hughes pitched like pre-2014 Hughes away from Yankee stadium, but a couple of extra wins to cover the marginal losses of Morneau and Doumit.

 

At any rate, a perceived lack of talent has almost never been enough to save the job of non-expansion managers throughout the post-war history of baseball who've lost 90 games three seasons in a row.  Gardenhire had four.  For me, the more relevant question than whether it was fair to let him go at the end of the 2014 season is whether it was worth ignoring conventional baseball wisdom to let him start the 2014 season.

[Riverbrian]

It's not the length of the contract that bugs me -- it's that TR and Gardy were at almost this exact crossroads last season, and TR re-upped Gardy.  Then, with minimal change to the roster or payroll, and modest tangible improvement on the field, one year later TR fires the guy.

 

What really changed in that one year?  Doesn't seem to be poor performance related for Gardy (at least no more than TR).

I'm under the impression that Terry absolutely did not want to let Gardy go. I think that was why he was retained last year and why I think it is killing him right now. What changed this year? Just a guess... The level of pressure from fans... Media... The Twins Daily website after another losing year.

 

I honestly believe them when they sat together and said the decision was mutual.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The new starting catcher was a backup last year, and on a 1 year, $2.75 mil deal.

 

Two other FAs?  Who are they?  Kubel and Bartlett?  Those were non-roster invites to spring training (and should have remained "non-roster" ).  I guess Morales showed up eventually... and don't forget, we also subtracted a couple league-averagish bats in Morneau and Doumit.

 

Basically, a team with a historically bad pitching staff added zero impact prospects, 2 FA starters with career ~94 ERA+ marks, and improved by 4 wins and 12 pythag wins.  I am really not sure how much more Gardy was supposed to do to save his job in 2014.

 

I get the "time for a change" argument, but it does seem to me like he was set up to fail for 2014.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the guy who wanted Kubel, Bartlet, and Guerrier wasn't the GM... call me crazy, and you might be right.

[drjim]

I'm under the impression that Terry absolutely did not want to let Gardy go. I think that was why he was retained last year and why I think it is killing him right now. What changed this year? Just a guess... The level of pressure from fans... Media... The Twins Daily website after another losing year.

 

I honestly believe them when they sat together and said the decision was mutual.

 

I would probably start with corporate sponsors and season ticket holders providing the most pressure.

[Kwak]

As I reflect on the title of this thread my mind, heart and soul all agree:  "There isn't a problem."

[Riverbrian]

I would probably start with corporate sponsors and season ticket holders providing the most pressure.

Over Twins Daily?

[Shane Wahl]

There's actually no problem whatsoever with this firing.

[LaBombo]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the guy who wanted Kubel, Bartlet, and Guerrier wasn't the GM... call me crazy, and you might be right.

But it just may be a lunatic we're looking for!

 

This is another thing about Gardy I won't miss.  It's hard to deny the Pohlad legal defense team's assertion that the Twins have never acknowledged publicly exactly how much influence Gardenhire had on roster construction and other personnel decisions.

 

But we've seen enough of Nick Punto sliding head first into the dugout and the team bus to the airport, as many catchers on the roster as the White House had Secret Service agents until recently, and the Mystic Lake/Medina Ballroom revival tours of players we remember from better Twins times to wonder if the organization's most enthusiastic past booster (pssst... gardy) of all those things may have had... an undue influence.

[Bark's Lounge]

But it just may be a lunatic we're looking for!.

Nice touch!

[Otto von Ballpark]

For me, the more relevant question than whether it was fair to let him go at the end of the 2014 season is whether it was worth ignoring conventional baseball wisdom to let him start the 2014 season.

That's basically what I mean.  Dismissing him now is perfectly normal... but only if you ignore that he wasn't dismissed, and in fact was re-upped, in October 2013 when things looked much worse for our Twins than they do now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the guy who wanted Kubel, Bartlet, and Guerrier wasn't the GM... call me crazy, and you might be right.

Even if Gardy was the main advocate for those guys, that hardly absolves TR of blame.  Just like Bill Smith deserves blame for dumping JJ Hardy when Gardy wanted a faster shortstop.  You have to be able to tell your manager "no" (and I am pretty sure TR has done so in the past, which makes the 2014 reunion tours all the stranger).

[LaBombo]

Nice touch!

You may be right!  I may(almost certainly) be crazy!