The bullpen - overused, or just bad?

[Willihammer]

The Twins bullpen has been blowing games left and right for over a month now. Is it a result of overuse, or just being bad?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Can't they be both?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I'd say it's mostly overuse, with a little bit of badness sprinkled in.

[DJL44]

The correct answer is "old". Fien, Burton and Duensing are all on the wrong side of 30. They need to get younger and more effective this offseason.

[Boom Boom]

In the last two weeks, hitters are batting a robust .308/.333/.615 off of Glen Perkins.  I don't think you can argue that Perk's been overused.

 

I think the answer to the original question is a bit of both - but I don't have that option

[John Kelsey]

They could get rid of literally everyone in the bullpen except Perkins and I wouldn't bat an eye. 

[iTwins]

Overuse - Casey Fien, for example, has pitched in 59.0 innings this season. He pitched 62.0 in 2013. Unless he gets injured or the Twins start winning games 10-0, he's going to easily work past that mark. Perkins has pitched 59.1 when he pitched 62.2 in 2013.

 

Bad - Jared Burton is on pace to pitch around 66 innings again. That's not good because...well...Burton isn't good. Brian Duensing is also on a similar pace as last season, but his numbers this year are not as sharp as they were in 2013. Matt Guerrier threw 28.0 innings for the Twins this year (28!) as well.

 

In short, both.

[jokin]

The correct answer is "old". Fien, Burton and Duensing are all on the wrong side of 30. They need to get younger and more effective this offseason.

 

Perkins will be 32 in March.  Swarzak turns 29 tomorrow, and it increasingly looks like 2013 was his career year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Overuse - Casey Fien, for example, has pitched in 59.0 innings this season. He pitched 62.0 in 2013. Unless he gets injured or the Twins start winning games 10-0, he's going to easily work past that mark. Perkins has pitched 59.1 when he pitched 62.2 in 2013.

That's a ~7% increase from last year.  About 4.2 IP over 162 games, or about 1 extra out recorded every 4-5 relief appearances.

 

Additionally, Perkins threw 70.1 IP in 2012.  Fien threw 81 combined innings in 2012 too.

 

This is a HUGE stretch of the term "overuse".

[jokin]

Overuse - Casey Fien, for example, has pitched in 59.0 innings this season. He pitched 62.0 in 2013. Unless he gets injured or the Twins start winning games 10-0, he's going to easily work past that mark. Perkins has pitched 59.1 when he pitched 62.2 in 2013.

 

Bad - Jared Burton is on pace to pitch around 66 innings again. That's not good because...well...Burton isn't good. Brian Duensing is also on a similar pace as last season, but his numbers this year are not as sharp as they were in 2013. Matt Guerrier threw 28.0 innings for the Twins this year (28!) as well.

 

In short, both.

 

Add Swarzak to the bad list.  Career high BB%, lowest K rates since 2011, batting line slash against with RISP:  .384/.420/.575/1.035.   That is BAD.

[Seth Stohs]

Fien, for the first half of this season, as well as most of 2013, was as good as any setup man. He's struggled, but I woudln't say he's bad. Relievers just have stretches like that.

 

Duensing had a month-to-six-week stretch last year that was really bad. This year, through July, he was having his best season as a big league. He's struggled since then as well. 

 

Swarzak maybe just had his one good year last year. Burton might just be about done. Thielbar is fine but won't dominate.  After that, they're newbies who got overused in the minors early in the year. 

 

So, I'd say that some are overused, some aren't good, but some are just going through a stretch as most relievers do, including Perkins. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Is there data out there showing how often Gardy / Anderson call the bullpen and have guys warming up to potentially come in to the game?

 

And innings pitched are one thing, how about total pitches? And how many days' rest, on average, are the bullpen members getting between appearances?

[TheLeviathan]

Regression for this group just hit really hard, really fast, but it has been due now for awhile.

[iTwins]

That's a ~7% increase from last year.  About 4.2 IP over 162 games, or about 1 extra out recorded every 4-5 relief appearances.

 

Additionally, Perkins threw 70.1 IP in 2012.  Fien threw 81 combined innings in 2012 too.

 

This is a HUGE stretch of the term "overuse".

 

It was the term provided by the original question, so it's the one I used. It's not a massive jump, but it does illustrate the team's overreliance on the bullpen this year. Fien isn't bad, Perkins isn't bad - they've both just been worked a lot more than they should have to this point in the season.

 

Fien's likely battling a "down" phase (happens to everyone) same with Perkins, apparently (hopefully).

[Otto von Ballpark]

they've both just been worked a lot more than they should have to this point in the season.

Only if you assume their 2013 usage levels were somehow optimal, as compared to 2012.

[iTwins]

Only if you assume their 2013 usage levels were somehow optimal, as compared to 2012.

 

Not optimal, but year to year comparisons are probably more useful when trying to factor fatigue or workload. Trying to factor 2012's innings into a workload comparison with 2014 didn't make sense to me. I thought 2013's numbers would better indicate what the player was used to / used for recently. A increase year to year could show fatigue  - that's the point I'm making.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fien's likely battling a "down" phase (happens to everyone) same with Perkins, apparently (hopefully).

 

 

Fien, for the first half of this season, as well as most of 2013, was as good as any setup man. He's struggled, but I woudln't say he's bad. Relievers just have stretches like that.

 

Duensing had a month-to-six-week stretch last year that was really bad. This year, through July, he was having his best season as a big league. He's struggled since then as well. 

 

Swarzak maybe just had his one good year last year. Burton might just be about done. Thielbar is fine but won't dominate.  After that, they're newbies who got overused in the minors early in the year. 

 

So, I'd say that some are overused, some aren't good, but some are just going through a stretch as most relievers do, including Perkins. 

I'd be careful dismissing these poor stretches as something "most relievers do".

 

Obviously all players have poor stretches, but the poorer players generally have more frequent such stretches, and worse ones.  It's why overall numbers have value.

[ericchri]

I'd be careful dismissing these poor stretches as something "most relievers do".

 

Obviously all players have poor stretches, but the poorer players generally have more frequent such stretches, and worse ones.  It's why overall numbers have value.

 

I've been a fan of Fien due to the fact he's not a robot out there like a lot of our guys, but I tend to agree with this statement.  He's been good for a little over a year, but it's just as likely that he was experiencing a period of better-than-expected results before now settling back into normal performance as it is that he's experiencing a downturn before edging back into good performance again eventually.  He's one of the guys I'd keep from this bullpen, along with Perkins and maybe Thielbar and Pressly (though I could go either way with those two) because he's been really good at times, but I wouldn't lose sleep over him moving on, either.

 

In general, to answer the original questions, I'd say it's pretty much both.  There's really nobody in that bullpen that has the kind of "stuff" that make you expect exceptional performance.  There's a lot of mediocre there, which used sparingly can show good performance, but used excessively will likely show it's limitations.

[USAFChief]

Not optimal, but year to year comparisons are probably more useful when trying to factor fatigue or workload. Trying to factor 2012's innings into a workload comparison with 2014 didn't make sense to me. I thought 2013's numbers would better indicate what the player was used to / used for recently. A increase year to year could show fatigue - that's the point I'm making.

2013: starters, 871 IP; relievers, 579 IP

 

2014 to date: starters 803 IP; relievers, 465 IP

 

The bullpen is on pace for less work this year as compared to last year.

 

For comparison, Twins 2010: starters 995, relievers 457.

[stringer bell]

While the bullpen doesn't have overwhelming talent, they were able to be quite satisfactory when not overused.  They were overused and they are regressing to the mean.  Kind of a triple whammy.

[Kwak]

The September callups fall into the "just bad" category.  The others belong in a new category called misused.  The Twins pitching philosophy is:  starter goes ~100 pitches, then Gardenhire (The Grandmaster) mixes and matches the RPs until the (designated) closer enters the game to "save" the game.  It's unusual to use a RP for more than an inning, and rarely more than two.  As a consequence RPs get too many appearances (IPs is deceptive for RPs), and the element of surprise (what does he have again???) is minimized.  They also wear down.  Too many RPs (normal for Gardenhire era Twins teams) cause the rest of the bench to contract causing the use of defensively-challanged players.

[jokin]

The September callups fall into the "just bad" category.  The others belong in a new category called misused.  The Twins pitching philosophy is:  starter goes ~100 pitches, then Gardenhire (The Grandmaster) mixes and matches the RPs until the (designated) closer enters the game to "save" the game.  It's unusual to use a RP for more than an inning, and rarely more than two.  As a consequence RPs get too many appearances (IPs is deceptive for RPs), and the element of surprise (what does he have again???) is minimized.  They also wear down.  Too many RPs (normal for Gardenhire era Twins teams) cause the rest of the bench to contract causing the use of defensively-challanged players.

 

You nailed it Kwak.  The way the bullpen is handled is all on Gardy, the overuse of the bullpen is essentially as much of his own doing, as it is of the SPs lack of IPs.  When it becomes obvious that his SPs are struggling, can't he change his RP throwing schedules? ie, more guys designated to throw multiple innings means less guys having multiple warm-ups in games they now won't have to throw in.  

 

And the resulting annual neurotic "need" for the 13- and 14-man pitching staffs is a continuation of the downward cascade in overall performance.  You really made a great point on the short bench and the resulting lack of plus-defense-options.  The MN Twins have the greatest negative difference between ERA and FIP, for SPs- a full 1.05 negative run differential, 5.09 vs 4.04, and the greatest negative difference overall, a .65 negative run differential, 4.62 vs. 3.97.  And folks wonder if FA pitchers have qualms about signing here.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not a fan of how Gardy manages his pen. It seems to lead to a lot of breakdowns like this. Warming guys up to throw 3 pitches and then pulling them is bad in my opinion. Warm them up and let them go a couple innings and then give them a day or maybe two off. I think it's better for long term health.

 

As for the answer to the poll... unquestionably both. Several of the guys are marginal, and as the pen breaks down, that becomes more apparent.

[drjim]

Regression for this group just hit really hard, really fast, but it has been due now for awhile.

 

This is my answer too.

 

They were a group that just wasn't that good but obviously overperformed thanks to great coaching from Anderson and guidance from Gardy.

 

But on a serious note, I suspect no more than 3 guys (and probably 2) will be on the opening day roster that were on the opening day roster this year.

[drjim]

The September callups fall into the "just bad" category.  The others belong in a new category called misused.  The Twins pitching philosophy is:  starter goes ~100 pitches, then Gardenhire (The Grandmaster) mixes and matches the RPs until the (designated) closer enters the game to "save" the game.  It's unusual to use a RP for more than an inning, and rarely more than two.  As a consequence RPs get too many appearances (IPs is deceptive for RPs), and the element of surprise (what does he have again???) is minimized.  They also wear down.  Too many RPs (normal for Gardenhire era Twins teams) cause the rest of the bench to contract causing the use of defensively-challanged players.

 

The tone of this post makes it seem like you have in mind another team in mlb that uses their bullpen differently or more optimally. You might find 3.

 

I would argue managing the bullpen is one of Gardy's strength. The nitpicks here are a result of watching way too much Twins and not nearly enough other teams. Good teams find roles for guys and hammer them in that role.

[twinsnorth49]

Apparently the manager of the first place Angels isn't a very good bullpen manager by some logic here. Scioscia trotted out 19 relievers over the 4 game series to Gardy's 18.

 

I don't have an issue with the way Gardy manages the pen in the grand scheme of things. I was at all four games against the Angels and it was a combination of bad pitching, bad pitchers and some aggresive, opportunistic hitting by the Angels, who happen to be a very good team.

 

There is a lot of dead wood in there right now but I expect some significant turnover this winter, the team has enough potential reinforcements to keep the pen effective next season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Gardy is able to manage his bullpen well because the Twins typically are carrying an extra bullpen arm. At times he used the extra arm to the Twins advantage but at other times it was an absolute liability, like in early May when we ran out of outfielders. 

[Platoon]

I agree with the posters, there is no one word answer. Rather than line item each pitcher, I have a question. And this is asked by a guy who likes Perkins. He has had kind of a tough year by his standards. So in a pennant race, will he struggle with the pressure? Or will the pressure cause him to focus more, and become more effective? But either he has lost his focus, or he has lost some of his stuff.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

He (Perkins) looked pretty locked in at the ASG, if you want an example of a pressure situation. That's probably the "biggest" game he's pitched in this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Apparently the manager of the first place Angels isn't a very good bullpen manager by some logic here. Scioscia trotted out 19 relievers over the 4 game series to Gardy's 18.

He also got a bit better results than Gardy.