A Suggestion by Souhan

[Rosterman]

We also sadly have Milone and Pelfrey fighting for rotation spots in 2015, which means May may become the next Swarzak and Meyer will start the season at AAA. If Nolasco shows anything, he should be moved.

 

Plouffe is still one more year the stopgap. Escobar is the fine backup. If the Twins start the season with Hicks and Schafer as the centerfielders (sounds like Hicks and Mastro) expect Santana back out there.

 

Next season will be telling for Vargas, Pinto, Santana and Arcia.

 

We hopefully see Sano, Buxton, Rosario at some point.

 

What will Mauer be. Is Dozier a .240 hitter with 20/20 and 100 runs scored. Something seems wrong about that line.

 

All will have some ups and maybe downs.

 

Who can pressure these guys in 2016 and 2017?

[diehardtwinsfan]

He's not going to net a top 100, but every stat out there shows Plouffe to be an above average 3B right now. I'd imagine if he has a similar or better year next year, his value only rises. Sano isn't ready now, so there's no reason to not keep Plouffe. If he continues to improve, then we have a really nice dilemma on our hands.

 

Souhan is right about Santana. The real problem I see is that we have 2 above average SS... wait, did I just type that? I'd think one of Santana/Escobar will need to get traded unless the Twins work out a way to have Escobar spell Plouffe, Dozier, and Santana 3 out of every 4 games. Otherwise, I think one needs to move. I also think there would be more value out of that trade than trading Plouffe right now.

[tobi0040]

He's not going to net a top 100, but every stat out there shows Plouffe to be an above average 3B right now. I'd imagine if he has a similar or better year next year, his value only rises. Sano isn't ready now, so there's no reason to not keep Plouffe. If he continues to improve, then we have a really nice dilemma on our hands.

 

I too don't get the Plouffe talk.  He has an OPS of .750, 30 basis points above the average 3B.  I am guessing he is close to average defensively.  He is relatively cheap and under team control.  If we could net a top 50 prospect, OK move him.  If we could net a top 75 prospect AND Sano was a lock to stick at 3B and be up in June, that is fine.  But many don't believe we will get even a top 100 prospect and Sano's defensive position is not settled.  So I just don't see the point until we have more clarity.

[tobi0040]

No, no, no. Not sure why people are so hot to trot to move Santana out of CF. My eyeballs are telling me he's not too shabby out there in CF. I'm keeping Santana in CF until I have a better option, which might not be until Buxton is ready. Escobar's not too shabby at SS, so moving Santana doesn't fix a problem at SS, but instead maybe creates a problem in the outfield, depending upon what other moves Ryan makes. As for Hicks, I'm ambivalent about his call up, frankly. Rochester is in the throes of a chase for the wild card, and yet Hicks is on Glynn's bench? Is anyone convinced that Hicks improves things as an alternative in CF and LF to Schaffer and Santana, defensively or offensively? The timing for trading Plouffsie is bad. Why not wait until Sano is in place?

 

Agree on the Plouffe timing....I just think Santana is either the SS on this team when we are good or he has no part of it (at least starting).  Giving him SS right now may create a short term issue and weaken the team a tad, but big picture, that doesn't bother me at all.  We should have had a big picture view all along IMO.

[kab21]

You are right, the next time Hicks is up, it will be his last, but September can be as telling, if not more so, than the average prospect because Hicks isn't really a prospect anymore. Frankly, if he's not ready for 2015, he won't get a shot as the regular CF. You might as well know where you stand with him for 2015 in October 2014.

 

If Schafer can play CF, why isn't he?

 

September won't tell us anything about Hicks.  If anything it gives the team false hope going into spring training if he doesn't have a terrible month.

 

Schafer isn't playing CF because Santana is playing CF.  If Santana wasn't there then Schafer would be. 

 

Santana should be getting time at SS in September and in spring training so that he isn't completely rusty.  If CF turns into another disaster he can move back there during the season next year but his future is not in CF and his bat isn't interesting in a corner position.  Imo he has better defensive tools (not current ability) than Escobar and a better bat.  He might not project as a great long term option at SS but he is the best option for the next 3-4 years.

 

I'm still distressed by this need to trade Plouffe.  Escobar has had a nice season but next season I think he will show us that he's not much of a hitter.  I will take the under on a .650 OPS.  I'm convinced that this board will be horrified by Sano's defense at the hot corner if he's playing there everyday.  Plouffe isn't great but he has a solid bat and glove and is the best 3Bman since Koskie.

[The Wise One]

Stat line averages for MLB 3rd Basemen:

 

OPS .714 wOBA .316 wRC+ 100 ISO .139  fWAR 2.29

 

vs. Plouffe:

 

OPS .739 wOBA .324 wRC+ 106 ISO .169 fWAR 2.9

 

As the stats above indicate,  Plouffe has had a slightly better year than the average for 3rd Base, and his defensive play has improved based on the metrics.  I'm definitely not Plouffie's biggest fan, but I don't see "horrible" in these numbers.  He certainly wouldn't generate a Top 100 prospect in trade, but "slightly above league average" still has some value.

 Are you comparing him to starters or whatever your site lists as a 3b.  There are 13 3b with qualified PA with a better WOBA. Ploufe is an average hitter. As a 2 WAR 3B that puts him in the average category. WAr is inprecise.

What I said and stand by is the only way you get value is to trade him to a team with a horrible 3b. No team is going to give up a prospect to downgrade or get about the same player at a position. You won't get much of a prospect for a backup/utility player. That narrows the potential trade partners to maybe 10 teams

[ashbury]

 That narrows the potential trade partners to maybe 10 teams

If that.

 

Any team with a 3B with qualified PA with similar or better stats will say "we're set for 2015".

 

Any team with a 3B who didn't qualify due to minor injury, or who has a decent track record but had a bad year, will say "we're set".

 

Any team with a stud prospect who is near ready and can be used at 3B will say "we're set".

 

Any team with a player manning a more difficult position that they can slide over to third will say "we're set".

 

That's why Span was such a valuable trade chip.  CF isn't nearly as easy to say "we're set" about.

[drjim]

I"m not against trading Plouffe but I don't see the value in getting a barely top 100 prospect. To me that is a step backwards for whatever they would want to do next year and even going forward.

 

If they trade him, they need to get mlb pitching in return, then it might make sense.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's not going to net a top 100, but every stat out there shows Plouffe to be an above average 3B right now.

Really?  Maybe above average by a hair, at the moment.

 

Over at Fangraphs, Plouffe ranks 13th in wRC+ out of 26 qualified MLB 3B. And that's his career peak performance thus far.  The past few seasons, he's been ranked between 20-25, in the lower third of MLB 3B (the same place Twins 3B were ranked during the "dark years" at the position from 2005-2011 too).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

 

Most of his "above average" 2014 value is due to defense... which Fangraphs ranked as notably below average prior to 2014 too.  And he turns 29 next year, and will probably be owed ~$18 mil over the next 3 years if he keeps this up.

 

And ashburyjohn highlights the problem with even this ranking -- looking over that list, even though Plouffe ranks 13th, most of the teams below him probably aren't interested in "upgrading" to Plouffe (Rays, Mets, Tigers, Red Sox, for starters).

 

He's a decent enough stopgap, but he's not really a plus player or great trade bait.

[jokin]

 Are you comparing him to starters or whatever your site lists as a 3b.  There are 13 3b with qualified PA with a better WOBA. Ploufe is an average hitter. As a 2 WAR 3B that puts him in the average category. WAr is inprecise.

 

 

I'm not sure why you keep saying Plouffe's a "2 WAR 3rd baseman".  As of today, BRef values Plouffe at 3.2 WAR,  Fgrphs gives him 3.1 WAR.  At this pace, Plouffe would project to a full-season WAR of 3.8.  In 2013, only 9 players, in total and listed at 3rd base had fWARs of 3.0 or greater for the entire year. And as his current overall WAR ratings say- he's well above average in WAR..... you keep calling him an "average hitter", as well, but the stats for 2014 say he's at the least, slightly above average.

 

Here's a counting stat to further indicate how productive Plouffe has been, relative to the position, this season (even though he's played significantly fewer games than all of those listed):

 

XBH by 3rd Base

 

1) Rendon 58

 

2) Plouffe 53  (ranks third overall in doubles for all position players, behind only Lucroy and Cabrera)

 

2) Donaldson 53

4) Seager 50

5) Harrison 50

6) Beltre 44

7) Frazier 44

8) Sandoval 42

 

There are aspects to Plouffe's career and current status that might potentially make him a desired commodity, namely, 3 more years of cheap cost control, relative youth to most of his peers, possible positional flexibility, and that amazing home run streak in 2012 might remain intriguing in the backs of the minds of certain GMs who play in a park and/or are a team built for power. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another problem with looking at Plouffe's stats and ranks right now is that he's considered a streaky hitter who is currently on a hot streak.  There have been several points this season where folks here have positively referenced his .740-.750 OPS (or higher, in April/May), and each time it has drifted back down closer to .700.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There are aspects to Plouffe's career and current status that might potentially make him a desired commodity, namely, 3 more years of cheap cost control, relative youth to most of his peers, possible positional flexibility, and that amazing home run streak in 2012 might remain intriguing in the backs of the minds of certain GMs who play in a park and/or are a team built for power. 

Positional flexibility?  Possibly being able to move to first base or corner outfield is a trait shared by, what, 90% of MLB position players?  Unless you are suggesting Plouffe could move back to the middle infield...

 

Also, Plouffe's 3 years of control are nice, but I'm not sure they are particularly "cheap" anymore -- they could easily net him $15 mil total in arbitration, even if he loses some of his 2014 performance gains. The fact that they aren't guaranteed is a nice bonus, but even for teams on a budget where Plouffe could be a modest upgrade, that projected money is not insignificant, and could easily be invested in another position while the team tolerated a slightly-worse-than-Plouffe younger/cheaper player at 3B (if not put toward a better 3B outright).

 

Again, he's not a bad player, but his best role is 3B stopgap, and he's on the perfect team for that right now.

[jokin]

Another problem with looking at Plouffe's stats and ranks right now is that he's considered a streaky hitter who is currently on a hot streak.  There have been several points this season where folks here have positively referenced his .740-.750 OPS (or higher, in April/May), and each time it has drifted back down closer to .700.

 

No doubt he's a streaky hitter.  But he has produced decent production numbers overall, with a markedly-changed approach at the plate, far less of a one-dimensional pull hitter, the effect of which has slightly lessened the negative impact of his slumps***.  And there's no doubt to most, including both top rating services, that he's improved defensively, which makes him a little more palatable to allowing him to play through his slumps.

 

 

***  With still a month to play, look especially at the huge number of additional balls hit to the RF gaps and corner in 2014 vs. 2013:

 

 

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/gen/4618582013040120131005AAAAAspray-chart.png

 

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/gen/4618582014033120140831AAAAAspray-chart.png

[jokin]

Positional flexibility?  Possibly being able to move to first base or corner outfield is a trait shared by, what, 90% of MLB position players?  Unless you are suggesting Plouffe could move back to the middle infield...

 

Also, Plouffe's 3 years of control are nice, but I'm not sure they are particularly "cheap" anymore -- they could easily net him $15 mil total in arbitration, even if he loses some of his 2014 performance gains. The fact that they aren't guaranteed is a nice bonus, but even for teams on a budget where Plouffe could be a modest upgrade, that projected money is not insignificant, and could easily be invested in another position while the team tolerated a slightly-worse-than-Plouffe younger/cheaper player at 3B (if not put toward a better 3B outright).

 

Again, he's not a bad player, but his best role is 3B stopgap, and he's on the perfect team for that right now.

 

 

Not 90% of position players when you take into account the expected production from those 4 positions. Aren't cheap? Look at the available FA 3rd baseman in 2015.

 

Alberto Callaspo (32)

Jack Hannahan (35) – $4MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Chase Headley (31)

Donnie Murphy (32)

Nick Punto (37) – $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250k buyout

Aramis Ramirez (37) – $14MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

Hanley Ramirez (31)

Pablo Sandoval (28)

Ty Wigginton (37)

Kevin Youkilis (36)

 

I bolded the cream of the 3rd base crop.  Hanley is demonstrating only 2.5 bWAR, and with his WAR value puffed up at SS, and is oft-injured.  Aramis has a 2.1 bWAR, even though he's having a decent year, and has barely played in 100 games.  Headley's bWAR is 2.4.  Sandoval is at 4.4 WAR  These guys will all be requesting annual salaries of well-North of $10M/year, most of whom will presumably get multi-year deals (Aramis is due $14M if the Brewers exercise his option),  

 

It could be argued that Plouffe, as a clearly cheaper alternative for the next 3 years to similar older, more established, but more likely to either decline or be injured, players, makes it possible for some teams to move those saved payroll dollars to lock up higher-end FA pitchers or different position players.

[Otto von Ballpark]

jokin, that assumes that teams have $X to invest only in one position. Like I alluded to, even if the FA 3B crop is weak, that does not mean they would be willing to give up prospect/talent of note for Plouffe. They could invest that $X in another spot and go with a young/cheap player themselves at 3B.

[jokin]

jokin, that assumes that teams have $X to invest only in one position. Like I alluded to, even if the FA 3B crop is weak, that does not mean they would be willing to give up prospect/talent of note for Plouffe. They could invest that $X in another spot and go with a young/cheap player themselves at 3B.

 

 

All true points, spycake.  I first posted to counter the suggestion that Plouffe was little more than a horrible option with virtually no value.... and that, if a given random team were to consider the alternatives, they could choose to commit $48-$75M on one of the big 4 FA 3rd baseman (and the attendant risks that each presents), or.... trade a fairly decent prospect perhaps two or three years away and get Plouffe for ~$12-$15M in total for the next 3 years, and then use the excess unspent cash to good use at another spot, or spots, on the roster.  It seems that there must be close to at least a dozen teams that might fit those parameters.

[The Wise One]

The statement made was Plouffe is an average at 3b. To trade him the question asked was what team on the cusp of being good has a horrible 3baseman? Plenty of other people seemed to understand that meant as a trade partner you would need to find a team with a horrible 3baseman. Added to that was also a team that did not have a prospect thus limiting trading partners to very few teams.

[USAFChief]

I don't think it makes sense to trade Plouffe until you've got a replacement ready to take his place and perform better, or at least as well for less money. TheTwins don't have that guy yet.

 

That goes for all positions, IMO. Make room for minor leaguers when you have one ready, and not a minute before.

[SwainZag]

I don't think it makes sense to trade Plouffe until you've got a replacement ready to take his place and perform better, or at least as well for less money. TheTwins don't have that guy yet.

 

That goes for all positions, IMO. Make room for minor leaguers when you have one ready, and not a minute before.

 

I don't see the urgency to trade him right now.  While yes Escobar is younger and has position flexibility, this is the first year he has hit in the Major Leagues  After 3 years Plouffe finally getting the hang and playing above average defense while his bat is near league average.  There's also the fact no one knows that the future holds for Sano either.  

 

I think he would be worth more to the Twins as he would in most trade situations.  If jokin's estimate is right...which I think it looks like a solid prediction....if you could get Plouffe for 12-15M for the next 3 years and puts up his current production it's not a bad piece to have.  If In fact Sano sticks at 3B and is ready in 2 years, he should be just as tradeable as he is now.

[stringer bell]

So much uncertainty.  Can Santana handle being a regular SS?  Can Plouffe improve on his improvements?  How soon will Sano and Buxton be ready?  Will they be anywhere near as good as predicted?  Can Escobar repeat his offensive performance?  What will happen to Mauer? 

 

I think that is far too many uncertainties to trade away an asset like Plouffe or Escobar.  Having more than enough position players would be a nice problem to have.  Slumps and injuries happen.  They have close to enough talent to be a very good offense, but as mentioned, way too many question marks to count on it. 

 

They need to fix the pitching staff.  A much taller order than having a competent, competitive offense.

[drjim]

I don't think it makes sense to trade Plouffe until you've got a replacement ready to take his place and perform better, or at least as well for less money. TheTwins don't have that guy yet.

 

That goes for all positions, IMO. Make room for minor leaguers when you have one ready, and not a minute before.

Yes. And to add on, I don't understand the desire to trade someone as soon as he is effective. Why not have him be effective for the Twins!

[tobi0040]

Yes. And to add on, I don't understand the desire to trade someone as soon as he is effective. Why not have him be effective for the Twins!

 

I agree. Put Plouffe and Dozier in that same category.  At some point we want to win ball games and we are going to need good players around to do it, versus prospects, who then are good, then flipped for prospects.  

[jokin]

 

 

I think that is far too many uncertainties to trade away an asset like Plouffe or Escobar.  Having more than enough position players would be a nice problem to have.  Slumps and injuries happen.  They have close to enough talent to be a very good offense, but as mentioned, way too many question marks to count on it. 

 

 

 

 

They need to fix the pitching staff.  A much taller order than having a competent, competitive offense.

 

 

Therein lies the dilemma... the question comes down to when both sides of the coin, as you listed above, come together.  As of now, it's debatable if Escobar and Plouffe will still be relevant when/if? the Twins' pitching and offensive stars finally align.  Can the Twins stand pat with their current SP depth and positional lineup, add Meyer to the rotation to start out 2015, and expect to be contenders out of the gate?  Will they go all-in to win and get into the FA SP market again and get a Shields?  (Which then leaves the next question.... If the decision is made in the offseason that 2015 is to be another 3rd down punt,  as they soon will lose starting gigs, when to move them?.... In the offseason.... or by next July.... if either is deemed the prudent course, to maximize the return).