Article: Alex Meyer's Time Is Almost Here

[tobi0040]

It's a Super 2 issue as well, and yes I know the old "Twins being cheap" meme card will prob get played by someone, however it is prudent for them to wait these extra couple weeks to promote him, they could end up potentially saving 10-15 mil in arbitration in the future (money that could be used for other players)

 

Now, if the Twins were 3 games back of the Tigers at this point, then I might be a little upset they are giving starts to Johnson etc instead of Meyer, however the Twins are pretty much done at this point and 2 extra starts in the majors instead of AAA for Meyer isn't going to affect how he does in the future very much at all, as Seth mentioned he still has some things to work on regardless, and when he is up July 31st he will still get several starts to "gain his experience"

 

My understanding is after about June 15th, no difference between June 16th and August 16th. Is that not accurate?

[Seth Stohs]

Very good point about the options. At this point, wait until you're certain that he's not going to be optioned. Never know if he'll need more options (we all certainly hope he doesn't need two more), but you never know. Don't want to waste one!

[DaveW]

My understanding is after about June 15th, no difference between June 16th and August 16th. Is that not accurate?

Per Fangraphs:

 

ormally, players must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before they can be eligible for salary arbitration — or in other words, until they can negotiate their salary and not have it automatically set by their club. But certain players with less than three years of service time can also become eligible for arbitration, if they meet the following criteria: ● If they have less than three years of service time, but more than two.

● If they rank within the top 22% of all 2-year players in terms of service time.

So if a player finishes a season and is just shy of three years of service time (say, 2 years and 171 days) then MLB will award them Super Two status and they’ll be eligible for arbitration. Since these players are still under team control for another three seasons, that means Super Two players get four year of salary arbitration instead of the typical three.

The Super Two cutoff used to stand at 17%, but got changed to 22% in the new CBA negotiations. This means that if a team wants to keep a player in the minors until after the Super Two cutoff, they will have to keep that player in the minors for even longer than before. Considering that the cutoff used to fall sometime in June — it varied from year to year, as the 17% cutoff isn’t tied to a specific date — it will likely end up being in July going forward.

[jokin]

As I've written, Meyer had those 3-5 really poor, short starts, but now he's come back with 5 straight "Quality Starts." I think he's made some adjustments (although he's still walking some), and I think that it's time now.

 

Trevor May would be up too if not for his calf injury, and then his pre-All Star game return start was rained out, then he went three innings and then last night as only able to go three (hitless) because of rain again. He'll be up soon too.

 

I personally expect Meyer to struggle in his initial time here int he big leagues. That walk rate is just not good, and MLB hitters tend to be even more selective. It'll be interesting.

 

 

But, Randy Johnson walked a bunch in his first few years in the big leagues too!

 

And that's exactly it. We already have a living example for how the transition period is likely to proceed. As in Johnson's case, there is really nothing for Meyer left to learn in AAA, that can't be accomplished more effectively in the Majors. Sure there are going to be ups and downs, but why waste all of these bullets?, there's never going to be a "perfect" moment to call him up.

[laloesch]

Great demonstration!

 

Yeah, with Gibson and Hughes both banged up but still wanting to make their next starts, there's no good reason not to reshuffle the rotation a little and get either May or Meyer up here to pitch the KC series Tuesday.

 

It's hard to say what they do. I think Darnell is the next one to get the call and then possibly Gil Martin. Maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic but I'm beginning to think the FO has no intention of calling up Meyer OR May this season.

 

I could be wrong, I hope I'm wrong, but it seems mighty peculiar that May (whose pitched very well this season) has not earned the call before now. I kinda understand the reluctance with Meyer whose on a strict innings limit and been a bit erratic at times, but he too has had a pretty darn good season.

 

Bottom line, I think the Twins were trying to avoid super 2 status, burning an option on both and had to justify to ownership all the money they wasted on Pelfrey and no-hope Nolasco. After all Pohlad did say: “We’ve been doing this for 30 years now. And a player who is not here yet is not yet a player.”

 

Sure Pino deserved a shot as did Johnson, but how long are they going to delay the inevitable? Especially if Hughes and Nolasco are down for a significant time.

[tobi0040]

Per Fangraphs:

 

ormally, players must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before they can be eligible for salary arbitration — or in other words, until they can negotiate their salary and not have it automatically set by their club. But certain players with less than three years of service time can also become eligible for arbitration, if they meet the following criteria: ● If they have less than three years of service time, but more than two.

● If they rank within the top 22% of all 2-year players in terms of service time.

So if a player finishes a season and is just shy of three years of service time (say, 2 years and 171 days) then MLB will award them Super Two status and they’ll be eligible for arbitration. Since these players are still under team control for another three seasons, that means Super Two players get four year of salary arbitration instead of the typical three.

The Super Two cutoff used to stand at 17%, but got changed to 22% in the new CBA negotiations. This means that if a team wants to keep a player in the minors until after the Super Two cutoff, they will have to keep that player in the minors for even longer than before. Considering that the cutoff used to fall sometime in June — it varied from year to year, as the 17% cutoff isn’t tied to a specific date — it will likely end up being in July going forward.

 

 

Bunch of jibberish. We think Pino and Johnson are better long term bets.

[jokin]

Per Fangraphs:

 

ormally, players must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before they can be eligible for salary arbitration — or in other words, until they can negotiate their salary and not have it automatically set by their club. But certain players with less than three years of service time can also become eligible for arbitration, if they meet the following criteria: ● If they have less than three years of service time, but more than two.

● If they rank within the top 22% of all 2-year players in terms of service time.

So if a player finishes a season and is just shy of three years of service time (say, 2 years and 171 days) then MLB will award them Super Two status and they’ll be eligible for arbitration. Since these players are still under team control for another three seasons, that means Super Two players get four year of salary arbitration instead of the typical three.

The Super Two cutoff used to stand at 17%, but got changed to 22% in the new CBA negotiations. This means that if a team wants to keep a player in the minors until after the Super Two cutoff, they will have to keep that player in the minors for even longer than before. Considering that the cutoff used to fall sometime in June — it varied from year to year, as the 17% cutoff isn’t tied to a specific date — it will likely end up being in July going forward.

 

Sounds like the ground being laid for the filing of a Scott Boras-inspired grievance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Couple of things about Meyer. He isn't on the 40 man, so in terms of being smart with options, he isn't coming up until he's up for good for the year.

 

Not exactly. Once they add him to the 40-man, he could be optioned back to the minors for up to 20 days without using an option year. So we could actually send him back to Rochester on August 13th or so if we wanted (because on September 1st, he can effectively be added back to the expanded MLB roster even if he doesn't pitch anymore).

 

Which is why I sorta wish he had been given more consideration for one of the recent bevy of fill-in starts -- he could have always been sent back down after, just the 20 day clock would start ticking down at that point (although with starting pitchers, it can be manipulated quite a bit with rotation turns, as well as the all-star break).

[nicksaviking]

The options shouldn't be a factor at all. If the Twins need to consider using an option for Meyer when he's 29, it's probably safe to assume things didn't turn out the way we hoped.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Very good point about the options. At this point, wait until you're certain that he's not going to be optioned. Never know if he'll need more options (we all certainly hope he doesn't need two more), but you never know. Don't want to waste one!

 

See my post above -- Meyer could easily be sent back to AAA yet this year without losing an option year, if the Twins so desired.

[Seth Stohs]

He only had 3 "short" starts, one of which he was pulled after 55 pitches, the other two 70-some. Still only allowed 7 runs in 9 IP over those three, meaning quality-wise, they were far from disasters (roughly 5 IP, 4 R type starts for a pitcher without a pitch limit). And they were bookended by 6 IP, 3-4 H, 0-1 R, 1 BB starts (stopped at 80 pitches, of course). Sounds more like the ups-and-downs of any performer, not something that had to be overcome or adjusted for.

 

However, the Twins (and every other team) have a rule whereby if a pitcher throws 30+ pitches in any one inning, their day will be done. That's the case even into the big leagues (for everyone with the apparent exception of Max Scherzer). Being more efficient with pitches is pretty important.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Worrying about service time is in essence worrying about the 2018 or 2019 season. He will be reaching 30 by then. Will the Twins need all Meyer's options anyway?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The options shouldn't be a factor at all. If the Twins need to consider using an option for Meyer when he's 29, it's probably safe to assume things didn't turn out the way we hoped.

 

Not quite 29, but yeah -- if 27 year old Alex Meyer needs to be sent to the minor leagues for anything other than a rehab assignment, whether he has an option remaining or not will be the least of our worries.

 

Same with the arbitration/super-2 stuff: it basically comes down to, if he's successful, Meyer could make more a few more million through his age-30 season (2020). Assuming we don't buy him out anyway. Not nearly as important as the extra year of control, although even that gets overblown (which is why I hope they don't keep him down until May 2015).

[DaveW]

Sounds like the ground being laid for the filing of a Scott Boras-inspired grievance.

No, it won't happen. As Seth said, Meyer not to long ago had a pretty rough stretch of 5 straight games. If they brought him up today they would probably be ok for super 2 status, but July 31st for sure.

 

It's the biz of baseball.

[Boone]

How about another expert? As in, Will Middlebrooks' analysis? In the postgame aftermath in which he struck out three consecutive times vs. Meyer, Middlebrooks said:

 

A few things:

1) This remains anecdotal evidence from one (or maybe a second) game.

2) No one is doubting Meyer’s raw stuff. It is almost certainly better than all but a few pitchers on the Twins, and probably was last year too. The doubts have always been more related to control (and his walk-rate has increased this year) and consistency.

3) When handling a top prospect like Meyer on a team that is in sell-mode as the trade deadline approaches, we should be much more concerned with what is best for the prospect long term than the team short term. As a result, whether he is better than the current starters for the Twins isn’t overly important.

[tobi0040]

Not quite 29, but yeah -- if 27 year old Alex Meyer needs to be sent to the minor leagues for anything other than a rehab assignment, whether he has an option remaining or not will be the least of our worries.

 

Same with the arbitration/super-2 stuff: it basically comes down to, if he's successful, Meyer could make more a few more million through his age-30 season (2020). Assuming we don't buy him out anyway. Not nearly as important as the extra year of control, although even that gets overblown (which is why I hope they don't keep him down until May 2015).

 

I guess I am not shocked because his agent is Boras. He will never allow us to buy him out of free agency. This be handled just like the Rays have handled David Price, except we will probably wait until the very last year and get less of a return on Meyer.

[Boone]

I don't mean to gloss over the BB rate. But with Meyer and to a similar extent May, I think we can stress about these things a little less. The difference between a walk rate being talked about and not a concern, IMO is 4+ per 9 and 3.5 per 9. So Meyer has walked 4.2 per 9 this year, which is about one additional batter every other start.

 

Given these numbers below, I think that that additional runner every other game is less of an issue:

 

Meyer K's 27% of his batters. .227 BA against .71 HR/9

 

May K's 25% of his batters .206 BA against .42 HR/9

 

These guys have the stuff to get them out of jams. They don't give up many hits, keep the ball in the park, and can strike guys out.

 

Very good point-- both Meyer and May are good enough to make up for a slightly higher walk rate. That being said, I would still like to see him improve in that regard.

 

 

Meyer's career-low GB/AO rate is twice that of Pino in his supposed breakthrough performance.

 

First of all, comparing Pino to Meyer is just silly. Second of all, Meyer's ability to generate ground balls at a high rate is a significant part of what makes him one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. His regression in this department, while not the end of the world, shouldn't be ignored.

[Otto von Ballpark]

However, the Twins (and every other team) have a rule whereby if a pitcher throws 30+ pitches in any one inning, their day will be done. That's the case even into the big leagues (for everyone with the apparent exception of Max Scherzer). Being more efficient with pitches is pretty important.

 

Of course it is important. I think you exaggerate Meyer's struggles, though.

 

Also, for the record, Correia threw 30 pitches in the first inning at Colorado two weeks ago. Nolasco threw 33 in an inning against Seattle in May but stayed in the game.

 

A quick google search indicates Pelfrey and Diamond had 32 and 33 pitch innings last year and were allowed to continue.

[jokin]

A few things:

1) This remains anecdotal evidence from one (or maybe a second) game.

2) No one is doubting Meyer’s raw stuff. It is almost certainly better than all but a few pitchers on the Twins, and probably was last year too. The doubts have always been more related to control (and his walk-rate has increased this year) and consistency.

3) When handling a top prospect like Meyer on a team that is in sell-mode as the trade deadline approaches, we should be much more concerned with what is best for the prospect long term than the team short term. As a result, whether he is better than the current starters for the Twins isn’t overly important.

 

 

 

 

And the arguments against the other starters was merely to discredit the alleged evidence used to justify those other starter promotions. The main point remains, those on the promote-Meyer side tend to agree that "what is best" for Meyer is pitching with the big league club, as he has nothing left to prove in the minors, and likely nothing more to gain. And like Randy Johnson, he is now at the point in his career where he can improve his mechanics, control and command of his secondary pitches in an environment commensurate with his talent level, with the best coaching situation. Moreover, pitching 50-100 innings this year breaks him in and gives him an idea on how to prepare for next year, while giving the Twins a more informed basis on what their expectations should be for Meyer in 2015.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3) When handling a top prospect like Meyer on a team that is in sell-mode as the trade deadline approaches, we should be much more concerned with what is best for the prospect long term than the team short term. As a result, whether he is better than the current starters for the Twins isn’t overly important.

I think this is critical, and the main point of the argument for most of the posters here. If getting experience at the bigs is the best way to improve performance at the bigs, and he's better than 4/5 of the major league roster, then why not promote him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I guess I am not shocked because his agent is Boras. He will never allow us to buy him out of free agency. This be handled just like the Rays have handled David Price, except we will probably wait until the very last year and get less of a return on Meyer.

 

I think I would take that scenario right now -- it would mean Meyer is a very good (and healthy) pitcher for the next 6 years! Arb/FA plans can all take a back seat to that.

[DaveW]

I guess I am not shocked because his agent is Boras. He will never allow us to buy him out of free agency. This be handled just like the Rays have handled David Price, except we will probably wait until the very last year and get less of a return on Meyer.

Also it doesn't come down to just "a few more million" if he turns into a stud the Twins could potentially save 15 million over the course of a few years.

 

15 million vs him potentially starting one or two more games in the majors in 2014. Like it or not its a pretty clear cut decision.

 

Again, Meyer will still get plenty of chances to pitch in the majors this year and on into next year.

[tobi0040]

Very good point-- both Meyer and May are good enough to make up for a slightly higher walk rate. That being said, I would still like to see him improve in that regard.

 

 

Agreed.

[jokin]

Very good point-- both Meyer and May are good enough to make up for a slightly higher walk rate. That being said, I would still like to see him improve in that regard.

 

 

 

 

First of all, comparing Pino to Meyer is just silly. Second of all, Meyer's ability to generate ground balls at a high rate is a significant part of what makes him one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. His regression in this department, while not the end of the world, shouldn't be ignored.

 

Actually, his lower GB% in AAA can be largely discounted. What you fail to note is the fact that his IFB% has jumped from 3.3% in AA to 10.7% in AAA. Also, his LD% has dropped slightly, while his H/9 has gone down to 7.37 from 7.71, year-over-year. BA slightly lower, WHIP slightly lower. In short, he's being hit less hard in AAA, than in AA.

 

That leaves the control issue, some of which can be discounted, based on reports of Meyer's ongoing experiments with trying out a new pitch, and the ever-ongoing adjustments in his mechanics, which based on the history of tall pitchers, is likely to continue well into his late 20s or longer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

First of all, comparing Pino to Meyer is just silly. Second of all, Meyer's ability to generate ground balls at a high rate is a significant part of what makes him one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. His regression in this department, while not the end of the world, shouldn't be ignored.

 

Where did I say it should be ignored?

 

Requiring a player to equal an excellent performance at higher level is not necessarily a good criteria for promotion. Meyer's "career worst" GO/AO rate is still above MLB average and would trail only Gibson among our regular starters (and only Deduno and Duensing out of the pen).

[Parker Hageman]

In regards to declining ground ball rates, that is a typical function of moving up leagues. Via BaseballProspectus.com:

 

1. Ground-ball rates decline as you rise through the minors.A simple look at ground-ball rates compiled for leagues makes this plain. In 2010, the ground-ball out percentage—ground outs divided by the sum of ground outs and air outs—was around .55-.56 for the short-season leagues. In the full-season A leagues, it was more like .53-.54, dropping to .52 in Double-A, to .51 in Triple-A, and finally to .50 in the majors.

The cause isn't a mystery. Ascent through the minors is also an ascent through age brackets, with each step of the minors averaging roughly a year older than the next level down. These older players have “filled out” their bodies more—not the way mine has filled through my 40s, but gaining in upper body strength. More strength leads to more ability to hit home runs, which leads to altering your swing to take advantage of that increased ability, so there are more uppercuts and more fly balls. A pitcher who does nothing but keep pace with his league will lose 5-6 points off his ground-ball rate as he climbs the minor-league ladder.

[twinsnorth49]

Why can't players continue to develop at the major league level? I just don't get how bringing him up stunts his growth, because he walks a few guys? There is no arguing his positives far outweigh his negatives and his stuff should translate at the major league level. Time for him to put on his big boy pants and find out just how much, not for any benefit to the team this year but certainly for next.

[Oxtung]

Meyer is on pace to pitch 150 innings this season despite being limited to an average of 82 pitches per game. It's time to put the "he'd stress the bullpen!" to rest.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Worrying about service time is in essence worrying about the 2018 or 2019 season. He will be reaching 30 by then. Will the Twins need all Meyer's options anyway?

 

One Tommy John surgery can screw that up. I still think using options smartly is smart. If he's up this year, they don't send him back down.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also it doesn't come down to just "a few more million" if he turns into a stud the Twins could potentially save 15 million over the course of a few years.

 

15 million vs him potentially starting one or two more games in the majors in 2014. Like it or not its a pretty clear cut decision.

 

Again, Meyer will still get plenty of chances to pitch in the majors this year and on into next year.

 

I think $15 million would the absolute top limit of savings here. Most likely, it is significantly less. A quick search turned up this post:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/how-much-is-super-two-status-worth.html

 

With inflation, that suggests $5-10 mil of extra "super 2" value for healthy instant superstars. If he's anything less than that (and he could still be very good and valuable while less than that), it's obviously much less.

 

Also, you are ignoring the possibility that the Twins could hold back Meyer's service time later. They could have brought him up July 1st or whatever this year, saw what they have in him going into their offseason planning, then start him in AAA next year for a month to achieve the same effect. (Heck, they could easily send him to extended spring training under the pretense that they want to limit his innings but avoid any kind of late season shutdown in 2015.)