Article: The Twins Are Stuck In Their Comfort Zone

[The Wise One]

The thing is a good GM is difficult to find. Collettii was an assistant GM, Duquette and Dromboski were available because of ownership changes. Jocketty was avaiable for the Reds because he was an irritant to the St Louis owners.

Hiring from within has its pratfalls. For every Bean there is a Smith or two. It is not fresh ideas as much as hire someone with a clue on how to succede

[AlwaysinModeration]

. It comes down to a tweet that Dave St. Peter sent out late in the spring, when a lot of people were expressing bewilderment about the Bartlett thing. He said something like, "I can't believe all the hand-wringing over the 25th spot on our roster." That was one of the most disappointing comments I've seen from a Twins official. These roster spots matter.

 

+11!1

 

I've said this before, but my understanding of the job of GM is to maximize value at every spot of the 25 and 40 (and to be honest, the entire system), and wring every possible win out of every available dollar--especially in a rigged system where some teams get to spent twice as much as the Twins. I don't see that approach from the Twins FO.

[Marta Shearing]

The entire thing should have been gutted after 2011. When Smith was fired they should have gone outside the organization for his replacement. The 2010 playoff embarrassment followed by 99 losses should have resulted in the firing of Gardy and the entire coaching staff. How does a manager with a 6-21 playoff record (3-19 in his last six playoff series) keep his job? Yet here we are all these years later and everything is still virtually intact. The root of all these problems is incompetent ownership. It's a shame.

[Jerr]

The entire thing should have been gutted after 2011. When Smith was fired they should have gone outside the organization for his replacement. The 2010 playoff embarrassment followed by 99 losses should have resulted in the firing of Gardy and the entire coaching staff. How does a manager with a 6-21 playoff record (3-19 in his last six playoff series) keep his job? Yet here we are all these years later and everything is still virtually intact. The root of all these problems is incompetent ownership. It's a shame.

 

This!!!

And it better happen this year, which is getting as bad as the last 3:mad:

I'm not even bothering to listen to the Twins on the radio, let alone go and buy tickets to watch them.

[Kwak]

But at the end of the year when the owners count the very sizeable profits one can see why the present management is retained. I expect other candidates for GM et.al, start conversations with something like: "Give me complete control and a budget of >$100MM...". Yeah, I can envision that statement as the end of discussions.

[SwainZag]

The entire thing should have been gutted after 2011. When Smith was fired they should have gone outside the organization for his replacement. The 2010 playoff embarrassment followed by 99 losses should have resulted in the firing of Gardy and the entire coaching staff. How does a manager with a 6-21 playoff record (3-19 in his last six playoff series) keep his job? Yet here we are all these years later and everything is still virtually intact. The root of all these problems is incompetent ownership. It's a shame.

 

Be honest with yourself, did any expect the Twins to beat the Yankees in the 2010 series? The playoff record for Gardy isn't good, I won't deny that. Were the Twins ever the favorites to win any of those series? How many were against a stacked Yankees team? How much of the 2011 team are you going to blame on Gardy? How many of those injuries were his fault? 2 regulars played more than 100 games.

 

Incompetent ownership, incompetent managers....blah, blah, blah. You hear it everyday on this board. They have been rebuilding since the deadline of the 2011 season. 3 years later they have the 2nd best system in baseball and. Some people have serious wildly outrageous expectations.

[Boom Boom]

Be honest with yourself, did any expect the Twins to beat the Yankees in the 2010 series? The playoff record for Gardy isn't good, I won't deny that. Were the Twins ever the favorites to win any of those series? How many were against a stacked Yankees team? How much of the 2011 team are you going to blame on Gardy? How many of those injuries were his fault? 2 regulars played more than 100 games.

 

Incompetent ownership, incompetent managers....blah, blah, blah. You hear it everyday on this board. They have been rebuilding since the deadline of the 2011 season. 3 years later they have the 2nd best system in baseball and. Some people have serious wildly outrageous expectations.

 

I think many of us are in the "we'll believe it when we see it" mode regarding the vaunted Twins minor league system. In the AL Central we've been hearing for almost 30 years how many great prospects the Royals have, and how they're just on the cusp.

 

Jim Pohlad said it recently that "any player who is not here yet is not a player". Some of the minor league prospects will make it big, some will flame out, and some will make it but never live up to the lofty expectations we have for them. Even if they all pan out, the questions remain whether they'll be good enough to challenge for a title, or whether the GM will supplement them with the right pieces they need.

[SwainZag]

I think many of us are in the "we'll believe it when we see it" mode regarding the vaunted Twins minor league system. In the AL Central we've been hearing for almost 30 years how many great prospects the Royals have, and how they're just on the cusp.

 

Jim Pohlad said it recently that "any player who is not here yet is not a player". Some of the minor league prospects will make it big, some will flame out, and some will make it but never live up to the lofty expectations we have for them. Even if they all pan out, the questions remain whether they'll be good enough to challenge for a title, or whether the GM will supplement them with the right pieces they need.

 

Of course some prospects will flame out, that's the natural of baseball. I really don't think it's fair to compare the Twins system with the Royals system of the past because they are two entirely different programs with entirely different players. A lot of teams with great systems have gone on to produce a slew of quality MLB players.

 

You can look at the injury riddled team of 2011 with a fairly weak farm system and in the midst of several bust filled drafts and then look at the 2014 team who will produce a similiar record and more than likely better record, with a lower payroll and a great system and see the progress, unless you are one of those people who only look simply at win totals.

[nicksaviking]

My point is, go ahead and replace these guys. I think the chances of improvement above and beyond what you'd have gotten from Ryan is less than 50%. Gardy? Not so much of a risk.

 

If the odds are about 50/50 that a new GM would turn this thing around, I would, and the ownership should, jump all over that.

[SwainZag]

If the odds are about 50/50 that a new GM would turn this thing around, I would, and the ownership should, jump all over that.

 

So, let's say you replace the GM this off-season. How much credit are you going to give the new GM when the Twins are the in contention in 2016-2017 and on with all the players that the current GM has brought in over the past 3-5 seasons?

[JB_Iowa]

The FIRST thing to change is the on-field management.

 

It should have happened at least 2 seasons ago.

 

(I think Gardenhire may very well have success again elsewhere if he chooses to go that route but he should not be manager of the Twins next season. At some point you have to provide a jolt. It's been a long run and the first 9 years were pretty good. The last 3 1/2 the exact opposite. It is time for a change.)

[Boom Boom]

So, let's say you replace the GM this off-season. How much credit are you going to give the new GM when the Twins are the in contention in 2016-2017 and on with all the players that the current GM has brought in over the past 3-5 seasons?

 

The hypothetical new GM would still need to put the roster together, and chances are it wouldn't be exactly how we're projecting it at this point as filled with Ryan's (and Smith's) players. That's precluding any trades or FA acquisitions between now and then.

 

So the correct answer is "some".

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Be honest with yourself, did any expect the Twins to beat the Yankees in the 2010 series?

 

And that's exactly how the Twins approached it too.

[DJSim22]

I can see wanting to have solid veterans to help young players get their feet wet in the majors. I think thye obviously have gone too far. Bartlett never made sense, Kubel is a Willingham on his best day, Guerrier made the most sense to me.

 

I thought the article was very good, the Twins have great loyalty and that normally should be lauded, they just have taken it too far to the extreme.

[SwainZag]

And that's exactly how the Twins approached it too.

 

Not exactly sure what you meant by this. Scored 7 runs in 3 games against Sabathia, Pettite and Hughes while the bullpen, which was the team's strong point, blew game 1.

[Oxtung]

I think using the rebuilding of the Twins farm system as a critique, either way, of Ryan's GM abilities is misplaced. Ryan inherited a system that had a lot of talent in the low minors. In addition he's had a top 5 draft pick the last several years. He also has had a crappy major league team that allowed him to trade his aging veterans with value to bring high upside guys into the system. These are things all GMs would have/could have done.

 

Bill Smith guys:

Miguel Sano

Eddie Rosario

Jorge Polanco

Felix Jorge

Travis Harrison

Max Kepler

Fernando Romero

Kennys Vargas

Trades of Veteran players:

Alex Meyer

Trevor May

 

High Draft Picks:

Byron Buxton

Kohl Stewart

Nick Gordon

 

Players that were "found" under Ryan:

Jose Berrios - Though he was the 32nd overall that draft

Lewis Thorpe

AB Walker II

Stephen Gonsalves

Nick Burdi

 

I think it's pretty clear that the minor league system was developed by a variety of sources, most of which any GM would have done. Every high ranking player basically fell into Terry Ryan's lap due to the previous GM or the situation the Twins find themselves in at the major league level.

 

Now, I think it's also important to point out that Ryan has done a good job with his 1st round picks and some of his international FA's in the low minors look like they could be good players. We'll have to see how they pan out. In addition he hasn't traded away any of the prospects trying to create a band-aid. I guess you could also say that by ignoring the major league squad he created the situation that led to those high draft picks.

 

This has been a very long way of saying that Ryan has done somethings well since his return but the farm system doesn't weigh much into the equation. He inherited a situation that was beneficial, perhaps even destined, to lead to a strong system regardless of the GM.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Not exactly sure what you meant by this. Scored 7 runs in 3 games against Sabathia, Pettite and Hughes while the bullpen, which was the team's strong point, blew game 1.

 

It's easy to explain away a playoff game here and there, without getting too deep into the in-game matchups. But how do you explain 1 playoff game win in the last 10 years?

[diehardtwinsfan]

If the odds are about 50/50 that a new GM would turn this thing around, I would, and the ownership should, jump all over that.

 

I think Bird's post was that the odds are less (in Ryan's case at least). I'd tend to agree and I think they'd be much less. Baseball is a lot different than football in this regard. In football, and offseason can completely transform a team, and as we all know, the coaching team is one of the most valuable components to a football team. While I feel that coaching is presently undervalued in baseball, I'd probably note that on field management would be more like a 10th guy in terms of WAR added or something along those lines.

 

Firing the GM won't suddenly make this team a contender. It isn't how it works. Rebuilding from the farm up will. Ryan is quite good at that. He has a track record of doing so, and I'm quite content in allowing him to a do a job that he has historically done well.

 

In regards to the issue Nick raises, yes, this does need to change. Right now though, it really matters little. Of the 3 signings, I think Kubel was pretty justifiable. Even Bartlett wasn't a bad move, though the implicit guarantee of a roster spot was the part where this needs to change. Either of these moves could have been high reward type moves at the deadline if either player figured things out. The problem was basically guaranteeing them a spot, and in Bartletts case, destroying CF depth to get it.

[Oxtung]

I can see wanting to have solid veterans to help young players get their feet wet in the majors. I think thye obviously have gone too far. Bartlett never made sense, Kubel is a Willingham on his best day, Guerrier made the most sense to me.

 

I thought the article was very good, the Twins have great loyalty and that normally should be lauded, they just have taken it too far to the extreme.

 

I'd argue that signing Guerrier was a bad idea no matter how it turned out. At 35 years old he wasn't going to be a part of the future and even if he regained his peak years he wasn't going to bring back much of significance since he's a middle reliever. And, unlike Kubel, there were prospects that could have, and I argue should have, been taking that spot on the 25 man roster.

[jokin]

I think using the rebuilding of the Twins farm system as a critique, either way, of Ryan's GM abilities is misplaced. Ryan inherited a system that had a lot of talent in the low minors. In addition he's had a top 5 draft pick the last several years. He also has had a crappy major league team that allowed him to trade his aging veterans with value to bring high upside guys into the system. These are things all GMs would have/could have done.

 

Bill Smith guys:

Miguel Sano

Eddie Rosario

Jorge Polanco

Felix Jorge

Travis Harrison

Max Kepler

Fernando Romero

Kennys Vargas

Trades of Veteran players:

Alex Meyer

Trevor May

 

High Draft Picks:

Byron Buxton

Kohl Stewart

Nick Gordon

 

Players that were "found" under Ryan:

Jose Berrios - Though he was the 32nd overall that draft

Lewis Thorpe

AB Walker II

Stephen Gonsalves

Nick Burdi

 

I think it's pretty clear that the minor league system was developed by a variety of sources, most of which any GM would have done. Every high ranking player basically fell into Terry Ryan's lap due to the previous GM or the situation the Twins find themselves in at the major league level.

 

Now, I think it's also important to point out that Ryan has done a good job with his 1st round picks and some of his international FA's in the low minors look like they could be good players. We'll have to see how they pan out. In addition he hasn't traded away any of the prospects trying to create a band-aid.

 

I guess you could also say that by ignoring the major league squad he created the situation that led to those high draft picks.

 

This has been a very long way of saying that Ryan has done somethings well since his return but the farm system doesn't weigh much into the equation. He inherited a situation that was beneficial, perhaps even destined, to lead to a strong system regardless of the GM.

 

Recognizing the impact-potential, and signing Jose Abreu to a 6-year deal after the very public "all clear" signal from Pohlad to spend his money, would have tipped the scales in TR's favor. The Abreu-related concession sales would likely make him now the #1 marketable Twins player, achieving dual goals, addressing the immediate major league marketing and cash flow needs for team buzz and a more competitive situation, and also locking in a cornerstone player while the next wave arrives and gets established.

[jokin]

 

I think Bird's post was that the odds are less (in Ryan's case at least). I'd tend to agree and I think they'd be much less. Baseball is a lot different than football in this regard. In football, and offseason can completely transform a team, and as we all know, the coaching team is one of the most valuable components to a football team. While I feel that coaching is presently undervalued in baseball, I'd probably note that on field management would be more like a 10th guy in terms of WAR added or something along those lines.

 

Firing the GM won't suddenly make this team a contender. It isn't how it works. Rebuilding from the farm up will. Ryan is quite good at that. He has a track record of doing so, and I'm quite content in allowing him to a do a job that he has historically done well.

 

In regards to the issue Nick raises, yes, this does need to change. Right now though, it really matters little. Of the 3 signings, I think Kubel was pretty justifiable. Even Bartlett wasn't a bad move, though the implicit guarantee of a roster spot was the part where this needs to change. Either of these moves could have been high reward type moves at the deadline if either player figured things out. The problem was basically guaranteeing them a spot, and in Bartletts case, destroying CF depth to get it.

 

Tony LaRussa was available and actively seeking an executive baseball position in the offseason. Who knows if Minnesota was a situation that was to his liking, but it's unfortunate that Pohlad didn't at least more aggressively pursue that option- LaRussa had a proven track record with small market/mid market situations. I'd put the odds of success for LaRussa at much better than 50-50.

[DJSim22]

I'd argue that signing Guerrier was a bad idea no matter how it turned out. At 35 years old he wasn't going to be a part of the future and even if he regained his peak years he wasn't going to bring back much of significance since he's a middle reliever. And, unlike Kubel, there were prospects that could have, and I argue should have, been taking that spot on the 25 man roster.

 

Maybe, but I'm not nearly as sold on Tonkin and Arcter like some others here.

[Oxtung]

Recognizing the impact-potential, and signing Jose Abreu to a 6-year deal after the very public "all clear" signal from Pohald to spend his money, would have tipped the scales in TR's favor. The Abreu-related concession sales would likely make him now the #1 marketable Twins player, achieving dual goals, addressing the immediate major league marketing and cash flow needs for team buzz and a more competitive situation, and also locking in a cornerstone player while the next wave arrives and gets established.

 

Agreed. Or being aggressive in free agency looking for assets with high upside that you can then flip at the deadline for future long term pieces like the Cubs. Or committing to a terrible team but also stockpiling the future talent long term like the Astros by trading away everyone of value. Or, like the Cubs started in 2013, use the money saved on the major league squad to blow past your international spending limits in an effort to buy the most talent possible. Or use the extra cash at the major league level to rework your big contracts so that in 2016+ you have extra cash to sign FA's?

 

When it comes to the minor leagues I have a hard time pointing to something that Ryan has done that I would stop and say, "That's a really creative strategy I think is going to pay off, way to go TR." At the major league level I think we can all agree it's been a cluster ____.

[nicksaviking]

So, let's say you replace the GM this off-season. How much credit are you going to give the new GM when the Twins are the in contention in 2016-2017 and on with all the players that the current GM has brought in over the past 3-5 seasons?

 

When? When is an assumption, IF is the word you are looking for.

 

I'm not advocating for Ryan to go, at least I haven't in this thread. The implication from the previous poster was that if the Twins replaced Ryan, the new GM would have only about a 50/50 shot at improving the team. If that was in fact the case, I like those odds as I don't know that I'd give current leadership the same spread.

 

And again, I'm not saying a new regime would do better, those were the numbers provided by the previous poster.

[Oxtung]

Maybe, but I'm not nearly as sold on Tonkin and Arcter like some others here.

 

How do you know if you don't give them an extended chance? Even if you think they don't have what it takes how about Ryan Pressly? He's shown to be able to handle it. Or how about Edgar Ibarra, Aaron Thompson, Deolis Guerra or Lester Oliveros? Or if you don't like our prospects how about signing an actual reliever from the FA pool, since it seems that Guerrier was guaranteed a spot anyways. Joba Chamberlain would certainly have been an interesting bounce back candidate that could have either been traded at the deadline or signed to an extension. LaTroy Hawkins is another with trade possibilities.

 

My point is there were a lot of different options that could have helped this team out but none of them were chosen. Instead the team committed to a 35 year old low upside middle reliever that they eventually released.

[jokin]

Agreed. Or being aggressive in free agency looking for assets with high upside that you can then flip at the deadline for future long term pieces like the Cubs. Or committing to a terrible team but also stockpiling the future talent long term like the Astros by trading away everyone of value. Or, like the Cubs started in 2013, use the money saved on the major league squad to blow past your international spending limits in an effort to buy the most talent possible. Or use the extra cash at the major league level to rework your big contracts so that in 2016+ you have extra cash to sign FA's?

 

When it comes to the minor leagues I have a hard time pointing to something that Ryan has done that I would stop and say, "That's a really creative strategy I think is going to pay off, way to go TR." At the major league level I think we can all agree it's been a cluster ____.

 

Here's another one: After reading this article about Aledmys Diaz http://www.robrains.com/CARDINALSBASEBALL/tabid/91/entryid/1727/aledmys-diaz-is-convinced-he-made-right-decision-to-leave-cuba.aspx, it is distressing that Ryan didn't do his homework on a prospect who would have made a perfect fit for the upper minors, and possibly be only a year away from Target Field. Diaz, at only 23, was an absolute bargain signing steal by the Cardinals, free of other spending restrictions as a native Cuban, and is doing well in AA, despite a nearly two-year layoff from competitive competition.

[TheLeviathan]

When it comes to the minor leagues I have a hard time pointing to something that Ryan has done that I would stop and say, "That's a really creative strategy I think is going to pay off, way to go TR." At the major league level I think we can all agree it's been a cluster ____.

 

To be fair to Ryan (and I really like your list, I think it puts into perspective how much of this farm's talent is owed to Smith) but he really maximized the Span and Revere deals. Regardless of what those guys ultimately do, he really got value for them. And there is something to be said for just not making glaring mistakes.

 

Again, just to be fairly critical.

[Oxtung]

To be fair to Ryan (and I really like your list, I think it puts into perspective how much of this farm's talent is owed to Smith) but he really maximized the Span and Revere deals. Regardless of what those guys ultimately do, he really got value for them. And there is something to be said for just not making glaring mistakes.

 

Again, just to be fairly critical.

 

I agree that there is something to be said about not making glaring mistakes and that is true at the minor league level I think. Is it at the major league level? I'd argue there have been several.

 

While he did bring in very fine looking pieces in May and Meyer, I think the thought process behind the trades was pretty straight forward. Bad major league team, weak minor leagues with clear pitching needs, so trade off major league assets to minimize your future weaknesses. I think almost every GM in a similar situation does the same thing. So the question to me is, did he get significantly more than an alternative GM would have? I'm not sure exactly where I stand but am currently leaning towards no.

[jokin]

To be fair to Ryan (and I really like your list, I think it puts into perspective how much of this farm's talent is owed to Smith) but he really maximized the Span and Revere deals. Regardless of what those guys ultimately do, he really got value for them. And there is something to be said for just not making glaring mistakes.

 

Again, just to be fairly critical.

 

There are also glaring errors of commission from last offseason, Nolasco instead of Garza, there are also glaring errors of omission, witness Abreu.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Tony LaRussa was available and actively seeking an executive baseball position in the offseason. Who knows if Minnesota was a situation that was to his liking, but it's unfortunate the Pohlad didn't at least more aggressively pursue that option- LaRussa had a proven track record with small market/mid market situations. I'd put the odds of success for LaRussa at much better than 50-50.

 

I fail to see how being a successful manager with no GM experience is somehow going to make you a better chance to succeed at a rebuild than the guy you have in place now (who has a track record of doing successful rebuilds). You may place those odds there, but no one bothered to give Mr. LaRussa a crack at it. He's not going to walk in to an org an be the GM anyways... He's likely going to be put in charge of a high level office.