Boras, Morales interested in long term deal.

[drjim]

Or Mauer at 3B, with Plouffe in LF? (It seems like Plouffe it's inevitable that he ends up in the OF sooner or later, anyway, why not start right away? It seems that the earliest the Twins would consider Sano being ready is September, 2015, and he may not be able to go back to 3B, anyway).

 

I for one am a fan of shifting a bunch of defensive positions and making them all worse.

[Kwak]

All these comments: "we can sign Morales for...[some cut rate(?) price]" cause me to conclude that people want to see an 80-win team. Then we can all dream--"maybe Gardy can motivate the piranas to win another 5", and then "maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle"--"Ya never know!" Is this why fans pay 3X more (FV) for tickets as well a special sales tax, to see an 80-win team and be happy with "Ya never know"?

[PseudoSABR]

All these comments: "we can sign Morales for...[some cut rate(?) price]" cause me to conclude that people want to see an 80-win team. Then we can all dream--"maybe Gardy can motivate the piranas to win another 5", and then "maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle"--"Ya never know!" Is this why fans pay 3X more (FV) for tickets as well a special sales tax, to see an 80-win team and be happy with "Ya never know"?

How would you spend the money to make a better than 80-win team? If we were inclined to overpay, does that mean we want more wins?

[tobi0040]

All these comments: "we can sign Morales for...[some cut rate(?) price]" cause me to conclude that people want to see an 80-win team. Then we can all dream--"maybe Gardy can motivate the piranas to win another 5", and then "maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle"--"Ya never know!" Is this why fans pay 3X more (FV) for tickets as well a special sales tax, to see an 80-win team and be happy with "Ya never know"?

 

I think signing a 30 year old hitter with a career .800 OPS on a reasonable 1 or 2 year deal is a more viable strategy to win games than waiting and hoping that a guy in AA that is 300 pounds, comes up next year and puts up numbers better than that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

So Morales's stats will only improve as he gets older (and wider in the waistline). Got it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

All these comments: "we can sign Morales for...[some cut rate(?) price]" cause me to conclude that people want to see an 80-win team.

 

I'd be happy to watch an 80 win team next year. Progress rarely happens overnight. If the Twins can go from 66 to 72-74 to 80-82 wins from 2013-2015, one has to consider that a success.

 

Would I like to see more wins next year? Sure, but I consider forward progress to be just that, forward progress. Teams rarely go from 72 to 90 wins in a season; expecting the Twins to magically do that is setting yourself up for disappointment.

[TheLeviathan]

So Morales's stats will only improve as he gets older (and wider in the waistline). Got it.

 

That's just it - Morales doesn't look like the kind of guy that is going to have a long and healthy career into his 40s. Extending him (granted at a far less dramatic price) worries me for the same reason Fielder getting 10 years should've worried someone.

 

Morales doesn't exactly scream "athlete well into my 30s" by his build. No offense meant, just an observation.

[TheLeviathan]

Which is why I think he might be a good buy low candidate. Teams aren't going to line up for a 31 year old DH who sat out half a season and OPSed around league average. It could be a good opportunity for the Twins to pick up a solid complementary bat (hard to believe Morales won't rebound somewhat in 2015) on the cheap.

 

His agent is Boras. "On the cheap" isn't in his vocabulary, I think people are being a bit pie-in-the-sky on these hopes. But the FA market is a funny thing.

[Dman]

Over 2,500 at bats, he has a career .277 average and .800 OPS. In 2009 he was an MVP candidate, 2nd in slugging, 34 HR, etc. I think we can be good next year with some good pitching out of the young guys (if they over come up).

 

Mauer in LF, Sano at 3B, Buxton in CF, Morales/Vargas at 1B/DH, and Dozier at 2B.

 

While I agree with you as I do on most points you make, my concern is the post is about a long term deal. I assume long term means more than 1 and likely more than two years. The Twins have a tendency to use veterans over developing younger players so will Vargas or other players get a chance to at least DH? Will Mauer get moved to outfield which makes room for a slow footed 1st baseman and DH in a lineup? Will Morales start to hit like his career average? Will Morales do a 1 year deal? Unless he starts hitting soon I don't see the internal options as that much worse than Morales and possibly better if we can develop someone internally in 2015.

[Brock Beauchamp]

His agent is Boras. "On the cheap" isn't in his vocabulary, I think people are being a bit pie-in-the-sky on these hopes. But the FA market is a funny thing.

 

Normally I'd agree but coming off a season where two Boras clients were snakebit by unreasonable expectations, this might be a good offseason to get Morales on the cheap.

 

After what happened early this season, I have to believe that both Morales and Drew just want to play baseball and have no interest in repeating last offseason's shenanigans. They're old enough where they can't afford to risk sitting out another season and throwing away their last shots to get back on track and sign a 2-3 year deal into their mid-30s. It wouldn't surprise me if one or both of them take a one year offer early in the offseason just to make sure they're not left out in the cold again.

 

And given how both Morales and Drew have played in 2014, do you see a team giving one of them more than $8m in 2015? I don't.

[PseudoSABR]

So Morales's stats will only improve as he gets older (and wider in the waistline). Got it.

Who the heck said that? But he'll probably improve his stats this year over the next year or two, not because he's getting older (or fatter), but because he'll go through a normal offseason and preseason.

[LewFordLives]

Or Mauer at 3B, with Plouffe in LF? (It seems like Plouffe it's inevitable that he ends up in the OF sooner or later, anyway, why not start right away? It seems that the earliest the Twins would consider Sano being ready is September, 2015, and he may not be able to go back to 3B, anyway).

 

I think Mauer at 3rd makes a lot of sense. Injuries aside, he is their best player and his athleticism and strong arm are being wasted at 1st (not that it doesn't take talent to play 1st). Sano is still a question mark as to timing and whether he'll stick at 3rd.

[Dr. Evil]

Kendrys is a bonified MLB masher. He will continue to hit better as the season rolls on. He is a bird in hand and only 30 or 31 I think. Didn't have any spring training. It's not like our payroll is through the roof. He would be a good sick to have in the mix for a few years until the young talent forces him to the curb IMHO. It's not as tough all of the sudden 5 rookies will be screaming ready to be starters all at once.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Mauer at 3rd makes a lot of sense. Injuries aside, he is their best player and his athleticism and strong arm are being wasted at 1st (not that it doesn't take talent to play 1st). Sano is still a question mark as to timing and whether he'll stick at 3rd.

 

After watching Joe man first base this season, I don't see how he can play third base. It'd be Plouffe all over again. By the time Joe is even just a "bad" defender at third (as opposed to "awful"), Sano will be ready to take his place.

 

No thanks. Trevor is just fine at the hot corner.

[Dr. Evil]

"stick" I meant to say.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Who the heck said that? But he'll probably improve his stats this year over the next year or two, not because he's getting older (or fatter), but because he'll go through a normal offseason and preseason.

 

Nobody said that exactly, but I see a pattern forming of buying old stars on the cheap in hopes they return to peak levels. Morales I feel would vulture at bats from Santana, Parmelee, and others. I'm ready to clean house.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nobody said that exactly, but I see a pattern forming of buying old stars on the cheap in hopes they return to peak levels. Morales I feel would vulture at bats from Santana, Parmelee, and others. I'm ready to clean house.

 

Except that Morales isn't old and was very productive as recent as last season. He's an extremely likely bounce-back candidate, as his troubles this season almost surely stem from missing spring training and close to half of 2014.

 

This isn't a retread or a Rondell White situation. It's a smart buy-in on a player whose value has plummeted because he's rusty.

[drjim]

Except that Morales isn't old and was very productive as recent as last season. He's an extremely likely bounce-back candidate, as his troubles this season almost surely stem from missing spring training and close to half of 2014.

 

This isn't a retread or a Rondell White situation. It's a smart buy-in on a player whose value has plummeted because he's rusty.

 

Season isn't over yet either. He has trended up slightly over the past week and I would expect a better second half than he has so far.

[jokin]

After watching Joe man first base this season, I don't see how he can play third base. It'd be Plouffe all over again. By the time Joe is even just a "bad" defender at third (as opposed to "awful"), Sano will be ready to take his place.

 

No thanks. Trevor is just fine at the hot corner.

 

Isn't this more hope than assuredness? The TJ surgery only further muddles what was already an iffy assumption regarding Sano's ultimate major league position.

[jokin]

I think signing a 30 year old hitter with a career .800 OPS on a reasonable 1 or 2 year deal is a more viable strategy to win games than waiting and hoping that a guy in AA that is 300 pounds, comes up next year and puts up numbers better than that.

 

Do you have some facts to support that assumption about his weight?.... borders on libel after watching him in the flesh on Sunday. (But I agree with you that if the strategy is winning more games in 2015, then Morales is the obvious choice.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Isn't this more hope than assuredness? The TJ surgery only further muddles what was already an iffy assumption regarding Sano's ultimate major league position.

 

I don't think it's hopeful at all. Sano's surgery shouldn't effect his arm enough to worry, particularly because now he's probably not going to see a MLB roster until this time next year.

 

And from reports I've read of his recent defense, he's better than Joe the moment he gets the call to Minnesota. Even if he's defensively rough at third, he'd still be the second best option at the position behind Plouffe.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Except that Morales isn't old and was very productive as recent as last season. He's an extremely likely bounce-back candidate, as his troubles this season almost surely stem from missing spring training and close to half of 2014.

 

This isn't a retread or a Rondell White situation. It's a smart buy-in on a player whose value has plummeted because he's rusty.

 

No, if he's reasonable I see the logic, I'm just ready to move on. Rather win 80 games next year with 20 yr olds than 30 yr olds.

[Mike Sixel]

Except that Morales isn't old and was very productive as recent as last season. He's an extremely likely bounce-back candidate, as his troubles this season almost surely stem from missing spring training and close to half of 2014.

 

This isn't a retread or a Rondell White situation. It's a smart buy-in on a player whose value has plummeted because he's rusty.

 

 

it also isn't about building a long term winner, it is plugging a hole that might not even exist for 1-2 years, all while Vargas and Pinto are "not held back".

[tobi0040]

Do you have some facts to support that assumption about his weight?.... borders on libel after watching him in the flesh on Sunday. (But I agree with you that if the strategy is winning more games in 2015, then Morales is the obvious choice.)

 

MILB has him listed at 275. Keith Law mentioned on a chat he is close to 300. Even if he is 275, history shows that players gain weight from 22 years and on.

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=573627

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

MILB has him listed at 275. Keith Law mentioned on a chat he is close to 300. Even if he is 275, history shows that players gain weight from 22 years and on.

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=573627

 

I mean, I didn't weigh the guy, and I was in the RF seats in foul territory, but on Sunday he looked big and muscular, not chubby. He's a big dude, he looked more like a lefty Stanton than Ortiz (but he's somewhere in the middle of those two guys) to me. I took some pictures, I can try to post them when I get home . . .

[jokin]

I mean, I didn't weigh the guy, and I was in the RF seats in foul territory, but on Sunday he looked big and muscular, not chubby. He's a big dude, he looked more like a lefty Stanton than Ortiz (but he's somewhere in the middle of those two guys) to me. I took some pictures, I can try to post them when I get home . . .

 

I look forward to seeing those, Kirby. Thanks in advance, for sharing. I too, was taken aback at how solid and athletic he looked, definitely not chubby, and not 300#s.

[jokin]

MILB has him listed at 275. Keith Law mentioned on a chat he is close to 300. Even if he is 275, history shows that players gain weight from 22 years and on.

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=573627

 

Keith Law has lost alot of respect in this regard with respect to how he rates Vargas, as he admits he'd never seen him until Sunday, and unless he discloses how he derived that alleged weight number, I will remain very skeptical as to its veracity.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

oh and to bring it slightly back on topic: for a big dude, Vargas got to 2nd on his double relatively quickly - faster than, say, Kendrys Morales.

 

All of which is to be expected, given the difference in age between the two. Morales would not be a bad signing for one more year, but I would not endorse more than that.

[Kwak]

Morales vs. Vargas

 

Morales

Veteran, higher confidence level in his predicted results, compensation level is high because of years of major league service, likely to leave if on a short-term contract.

 

Vargas

 

Or better yet, existing Minnesota Twins player (Colabello, Parmelee,etc.) Inexperienced, low confidence level of predicted results and more likely to not meet required results level at all, may likely to improve over time to a higher results level than anticipated, inexpensive cannot voluntarily leave to another team for several years.

 

It seems to me that the most likely employers of a "Morales" are teams that believe they are "serious contenders" for the World Series and are willing to pay a significant premium in salary to raise their confidence level of expected results. Example of a former Twin meeting this description: Chili Davis.

 

The most likely employers of "Vargas" or Parmelee/Colabello are: teams in a rebuild mode who are seeking long-term solutions and are willing to accept a few more losses now in order to rebuild. Too many examples of former Twins to name. Many failed, of course, but some succeeded.

 

In which category should the 2015 Twins be placed? The answer to that question should indicate the choice of Morales or Youth.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why not both? Why not pursue a make-good contract with Vargas in hopes of being a fringe contender in 2015?

 

If it doesn't work, trade him in July and call up Vargas. It's not as if Vargas is going to be ready on Opening Day of 2015 anyway. He could use some time at Rochester.

 

The Twins have money. Why not give yourself a chance to win in both 2015 and 2016-beyond?