Boras, Morales interested in long term deal.

[drjim]

Morales vs. Vargas

 

Morales

Veteran, higher confidence level in his predicted results, compensation level is high because of years of major league service, likely to leave if on a short-term contract.

 

Vargas

 

Or better yet, existing Minnesota Twins player (Colabello, Parmelee,etc.) Inexperienced, low confidence level of predicted results and more likely to not meet required results level at all, may likely to improve over time to a higher results level than anticipated, inexpensive cannot voluntarily leave to another team for several years.

 

It seems to me that the most likely employers of a "Morales" are teams that believe they are "serious contenders" for the World Series and are willing to pay a significant premium in salary to raise their confidence level of expected results. Example of a former Twin meeting this description: Chili Davis.

 

The most likely employers of "Vargas" or Parmelee/Colabello are: teams in a rebuild mode who are seeking long-term solutions and are willing to accept a few more losses now in order to rebuild. Too many examples of former Twins to name. Many failed, of course, but some succeeded.

 

In which category should the 2015 Twins be placed? The answer to that question should indicate the choice of Morales or Youth.

 

I think we can say with pretty good confidence how good Colabello and Parmelee will be.

 

Opening day next year is probably a little early to expect any sort of sustained success for Vargas. There would be nothing wrong with starting him at AAA and having him ready in case of injury and break him in on a more reasonable timetable.

 

I wouldn't want Morales for more than a year (unless it was a cheap two years, which is unlikely), I find it hard to believe another team would give him that.

 

The question is all about Pinto. If he is in the plans to catch next year Morales makes sense, if Pinto is not in the plans to catch, probably need to keep DH open for him.

[Mike Sixel]

For me, it is simple. I don't want minor leaguers blocked by veterans on a bad team. I don't know if Vargas/Pinto will be good or not, but if they sit in AAA, we'll never know. Meantime, they will have spent real money on a DH only player, with no positional value at all. And, I just don't trust them to bench mediocre veterans on bad teams, to make room for minor leaguers and to start competing over the long run.

 

see all the relief pitchers this year

see Doumit his two years year (though they did eventually trade him)

see Pinto this year, he isn't even up here catching 2 times a week, and DHing 2 times a week

 

I just don't trust them to build the future right now. Maybe they feel their AAA RP aren't actually good. Maybe they think Pinto cannot learn here. Maybe they felt playing doumit (well, I cant' figure that one out).

 

Of course, those are my feelings/beliefs. I could be wrong. Maybe they will promote players and start the long term. But so far, I don't see it. And maybe that is just because the minor league players just aren't that good.

[spanman2]

I would offer 2@ no more than 8/year. If Boras thinks the grass is abundantly greener than that by all means go for it. NO absolutely no more than 2 years on the deal...in listening to TK Vargas is at least a year away. I read into it his defense as he is working as hard as he can but he isn't there yet. He can certainly play some 1B when needed as shown this year. He won't win slick fielder of the year award which is another his value is less than Scottie boy will try to sell him as. Our OF is in unchartered waters for next year. Willingham will be gone unless he wants to take a paycut. I could see the Twins offering in the lines of 2/10mill type of contract. Arcia needs to stop swinging for Canada and focus on making good solid contact. Boy is strong enough that the ball will travel if he does so. Who knows with HICKS. I would certainly bring Fuld back not knowing off the top of my head his contract situation. Very solid player..would make a nice 4th OF on a good team.

[amjgt]

I think there are three main camps here:

 

1. Don't extend him. In fact trade him before the deadline for whatever you can get.

2. I'd be happy with him extended through 2015, but any more than that and I feel like we are doing a significant amount of prospect blocking

3. I'll take a proven professional hitter as long as I can get him if the dollars aren't crazy.

 

I'm in camp 2, but they all have their flaws

 

The flaw with #1 is that you are back to relying on unproven youth (or in the case of Colabello, not-youth)

The flaw with #2 is that nobody who says they would be open to a long term contract is looking at a 1yr deal. If they are looking for that, they call it an extension.

The flaw with #3 is that if you are spending money on a DH-only type guy over several years when many signs point the fact that much cheaper options with relatively the same production, then you're tying up money that could be spent on other areas that might not be so easily filled.

 

Then there's one flaw with all of them.... he's not hitting very well right now.

[jokin]

..in listening to TK Vargas is at least a year away. I read into it his defense as he is working as hard as he can but he isn't there yet.

 

TK is not one to heap praise on prospects, but he apparently has become enamored with Vargas:

 

But Vargas knows he'll need to keep working on his defense before he reaches the Majors, and his attitude is what impresses Kelly most.

"I work a lot with him in Spring Training," Vargas said of Kelly. "I love that guy. He talks to me about defense all the time. He tells me I need to work on my defense if I'm going to make the big leagues."

 

And he is rather fond of his offense, as well:

 

In 16 years as a major league manager, Kelly has learned to listen for the sound that Vargas' bat makes when it comes in contact with a baseball.There's a pop in his bat that few players have. It's a pop that sent baseballs into the second deck at Target Field on Sunday when Vargas took batting practice before the Futures Game.

"He hits the ball like an adult," Kelly said of the 23-year-old prospect. "He hits the ball very well, and it makes a sound when he hits the ball."

 

I think the Twins will send Vargas to the AFL in the fall (after a possible call-up for the IL playoffs or MN in September) and AAA to start out next season, with the hope of having him available for an ASG call-up in 2015 if all goes according to plan.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the Twins will send Vargas to the AFL in the fall (after a possible call-up for the IL playoffs or MN in September) and AAA to start out next season, with the hope of having him available for an ASG call-up in 2015 if all goes according to plan.

 

I think it's likely that this is exactly what happens.

[spanman2]

Agree with your points for certain. Just saying I don't see him being in the big leagues until 2015. I am 110% on this kids bandwagon!!!

 

 

TK is not one to heap praise on prospects, but he apparently has become enamored with Vargas:

 

 

 

And he is rather fond of his offense, as well:

 

 

 

I think the Twins will send Vargas to the AFL in the fall (after a possible call-up for the IL playoffs or MN in September) and AAA to start out next season, with the hope of having him available for an ASG call-up in 2015 if all goes according to plan.

[spanman2]

I think I may have mistyped early. I don't see him being called up until 2016 with how arbitration averse the Twins seem to be. I am 110% on this kids bandwagon!!!

[PseudoSABR]

Nobody said that exactly, but I see a pattern forming of buying old stars on the cheap in hopes they return to peak levels. Morales I feel would vulture at bats from Santana, Parmelee, and others. I'm ready to clean house.

On paper, it's a good call. Culture actually matters in sports (and I believe in all organizational structures). We can't put it on paper (sorry positivists), but keeping the fans semi-interested, keeping guys around to semi-coach younger players (ala Morales coaching up Arcia on playing through and hard (via another poster via the radio)), not selling low on a paid-for commodity, that Parm, Vargas and other DH options are yet totally unproven. I think the best bet for success is to have our best prospects arrive in a winning culture or rather not the vacuum of losing you would have.

[Mike Sixel]

Culture is super important. But, this isn't a winning team. Bringing back the veterans that have produced another mediocre/bad season, how does that help create that culture?

[Kwak]

Paying to retain Morales because he (might) provide an extra 3-4 wins instead of another Twins' player only makes sense if: a) those extra wins make the difference between a World winner or a 1st round victim, the difference between a playoff team or being a complete also-ran, or c) Morales will be here for several years and will be providing those extra wins for many seasons. Since virtually every poster advocating re-signing Morales uses the premise of a 1-year contract option c) isn't valid. Option a) is pure fantasy. Which leaves option . Some will believe in the potential for next season, some won't. However, if you truly believe in next season's Twins as a playoff team with Morales under contract, then Morales should have been signed for many seasons, not just for 2015. Sorry folks the logic of a one-year contract for Morales isn't there. Morales should be "let go" (hopefully with some useful compensation) or he should be signed for several seasons.

[drjim]

Paying to retain Morales because he (might) provide an extra 3-4 wins instead of another Twins' player only makes sense if: a) those extra wins make the difference between a World winner or a 1st round victim, the difference between a playoff team or being a complete also-ran, or c) Morales will be here for several years and will be providing those extra wins for many seasons. Since virtually every poster advocating re-signing Morales uses the premise of a 1-year contract option c) isn't valid. Option a) is pure fantasy. Which leaves option . Some will believe in the potential for next season, some won't. However, if you truly believe in next season's Twins as a playoff team with Morales under contract, then Morales should have been signed for many seasons, not just for 2015. Sorry folks the logic of a one-year contract for Morales isn't there. Morales should be "let go" (hopefully with some useful compensation) or he should be signed for several seasons.

 

I really disagree with this thinking and actually would argue you have it backwards. There is very rarely a bad one year contract, but locking a player into multiple years leaves a franchise stuck with a contact. It is not necessarily the money but the roster spot a declining player takes up.

 

I would think a team should always be trying to sign players to field the best team. The reason you would be hesitant to sign free agents would be they either a) block a younger player that is ready to play, or you have to sign the player for more years than he will bring value, either through decline or if you will have a player ready before the contract is up (for example, the Twins shouldn't sign a CF to more than a one year deal).

[PseudoSABR]

Culture is super important. But, this isn't a winning team. Bringing back the veterans that have produced another mediocre/bad season, how does that help create that culture?

Even though we're not winning, per se, the team is doing better. That a veteran in Morales, and frankly lots of others, expresses such adoration for the club suggests something about our culture (even in spite of winning). So Morales helps maintain that culture and pass it on; that he's Hispanic, I think, also matters.

 

Again, this is a fungible concept. I see it this way. 1) We have the cash. 2) We do not have enough ML hitters to fill DH (Vargas and others are yet unproven). 3) Any redundant assets can be dealt to help the club. 4) Depth isn't sexy, but it really does matter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4) Depth isn't sexy, but it really does matter.

 

I'd say it matters more than anything depending on how you define "depth".

 

A couple of 5-6 WAR players won't get you to the playoffs.

 

A team of 2-3 WAR players? They'll give you a damned good shot at the postseason. You may not advance but you'll be competitive.

 

Good teams are built on the backs of the good-but-not-spectacular players. You know, players kinda like Kendrys Morales.

[jorgenswest]

I am wondering how Pinto and Vargas get enough plate appearances to become proven. It may take 1000 major league plate appearances as a batter and league continue to adjust to each other.

 

Pinto and Vargas are not going to learn how to hit major league pitching in the minors. They can demonstrate an ability to hit minor league pitching. They will need a chance to struggle in the majors. That can't happen on the bench watching Morales.

 

The Twins need to make the call on Pinto soon. Is there a chance he can be a catcher? If so, they need to get him behind the plate regularly. It might be wise to break him in with someone other than one of the most difficult pitchers to catch in Deduno. If he isn't going to be a regular catcher, then they need to put him at DH regularly.

[Mike Sixel]

I am wondering how Pinto and Vargas get enough plate appearances to become proven. It may take 1000 major league plate appearances as a batter and league continue to adjust to each other.

 

Pinto and Vargas are not going to learn how to hit major league pitching in the minors. They can demonstrate an ability to hit minor league pitching. They will need a chance to struggle in the majors. That can't happen on the bench watching Morales.

 

The Twins need to make the call on Pinto soon. Is there a chance he can be a catcher? If so, they need to get him behind the plate regularly. It might be wise to break him in with someone other than one of the most difficult pitchers to catch in Deduno. If he isn't going to be a regular catcher, then they need to put him at DH regularly.

 

 

+1000000000

[tobi0040]

Or maybe he just likes it here. He wouldn't be the first player to talk up how much he likes the Twins clubhouse.

 

But no, Morales is not a good fit going forward. I'm glad he likes it here but with Arcia, Pinto, Mauer, and Vargas, there isn't much room for another plodder on this roster.

 

Maybe, but the last guy that "loved playing here" was Pelfrey.

 

Hopefully we either trade him or give him a 1 or 2 year deal at $7M per.

[Guest USAFChief]

I am wondering how Pinto and Vargas get enough plate appearances to become proven. It may take 1000 major league plate appearances as a batter and league continue to adjust to each other.

 

Pinto and Vargas are not going to learn how to hit major league pitching in the minors. They can demonstrate an ability to hit minor league pitching. They will need a chance to struggle in the majors. That can't happen on the bench watching Morales.

 

The Twins need to make the call on Pinto soon. Is there a chance he can be a catcher? If so, they need to get him behind the plate regularly. It might be wise to break him in with someone other than one of the most difficult pitchers to catch in Deduno. If he isn't going to be a regular catcher, then they need to put him at DH regularly.

IMO, The goal isn't to get minor leaguers opportunities. The goal is to win baseball games.

 

I don't know, but I'd wager a good sum of money that neither Vargas or Pinto have a career equal to Morales. That's not because I'm down on either, rather it's because the reality is most minor leaguers don't.

 

I strongly believe that the way to have long term success in MLB is to populate your team with good, proven players. Lots of em. You make room for minor leaguers when they force their way into the picture, and avoid at almost all costs creating room for them before they do. If, for a period of time, you have too many players, and not enough ABs to accommodate them, that's a good thing, and that situation is in no way a hindrance to winning, nor is it likely to stay that way for long.

 

On the other hand, not having enough good players, and depending on the minor leagues to supply them, is how you end up "waiting till next year" for a decade or two.

[twinsfan34]

I am wondering how Pinto and Vargas get enough plate appearances to become proven. It may take 1000 major league plate appearances as a batter and league continue to adjust to each other.

 

Pinto and Vargas are not going to learn how to hit major league pitching in the minors. They can demonstrate an ability to hit minor league pitching. They will need a chance to struggle in the majors. That can't happen on the bench watching Morales.

 

The Twins need to make the call on Pinto soon. Is there a chance he can be a catcher? If so, they need to get him behind the plate regularly. It might be wise to break him in with someone other than one of the most difficult pitchers to catch in Deduno. If he isn't going to be a regular catcher, then they need to put him at DH regularly.

 

+1 Agree. Once the Twins decide they are out of contention, it's development time. And honestly, I don't think fan interest would wane if you had Vargas, Pinto, May, Meyer, Rosario, Kepler (hey, he's on the 40 man), etc would be on the roster taking at bats.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I am wondering how Pinto and Vargas get enough plate appearances to become proven. It may take 1000 major league plate appearances as a batter and league continue to adjust to each other.

 

Pinto and Vargas are not going to learn how to hit major league pitching in the minors. They can demonstrate an ability to hit minor league pitching. They will need a chance to struggle in the majors. That can't happen on the bench watching Morales.

 

The Twins need to make the call on Pinto soon. Is there a chance he can be a catcher? If so, they need to get him behind the plate regularly. It might be wise to break him in with someone other than one of the most difficult pitchers to catch in Deduno. If he isn't going to be a regular catcher, then they need to put him at DH regularly.

 

In Pinto's case, his problem isn't hitting MLB pitching (at least that's not his major problem). It's working with pitchers and being a catcher. He's best served by doing that in the minors, I believe. From pretty much every account by everyone involved, he has a lot of work to do before he's a MLB catcher defensively.

 

And Vargas? He's not going to be ready in April of 2015 anyway. If the Twins are in contention with Morales next season, great. Slide Vargas into a swing role in July and let him take his hacks with the understanding he's your guy in 2016.

 

If the Twins are out of contention, Morales should be traded in July anyway. You can give Vargas all the DH plate appearances at that point.

 

I just don't see how Suzuki or Morales are blocking anyone until this time next season. Neither Pinto nor Vargas will be ready for a full-time role in Minnesota for quite some time.

 

And none of this brings up the various injury issues teams have throughout a season, allowing guys to get a taste of the MLB before you expect to see them.

[Dman]

The premise of the article is long term deal. Most of the arguments for Morales seem to be based on a one year deal that it seems highly unlikely he would take. I believe the Twins promised or he is free from the qualified offer scenario so just how are the Twins going to turn a long term deal into a one year deal? If it takes more than one year to get him to stay how does he not block prospects?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The premise of the article is long term deal. Most of the arguments for Morales seem to be based on a one year deal that it seems highly unlikely he would take. I believe the Twins promised or he is free from the qualified offer scenario so just how are the Twins going to turn a long term deal into a one year deal? If it takes more than one year to get him to stay how does he not block prospects?

 

If he isn't interested in a one-year deal, I'd probably balk at signing him at all. I *might* go two years if the price is right.

 

The thing is that neither Pinto nor Vargas are can't-miss prospects. They both have issues going forward and their chance of failure is pretty high. If Morales was "blocking" Byron Buxton, I'd feel very differently about it.

[Dman]

If he isn't interested in a one-year deal, I'd probably balk at signing him at all. I *might* go two years if the price is right.

 

The thing is that neither Pinto nor Vargas are can't-miss prospects. They both have issues going forward and their chance of failure is pretty high. If Morales was "blocking" Byron Buxton, I'd feel very differently about it.

 

I agree with you especially on Vargas. It just seems highly unlikely he is ready at the beginning of next year to step into that role. I agree with the depth argument and the Twins have the money to sign him. I too am concerned if long term is longer than one year. One year is ideal and the plan you laid out is solid. I just think he is looking for three years. I am not sure he will find it but you never know. One of the big market teams might snatch him up for depth. I personally do like Pinto in the DH\backup catcher role. I just don't have confidence he is going to make it as a starting catcher. I agree he could fail or struggle in that role but his bat and approach seem pretty solid. Ultimately I don't think we can count on Morales doing a one year deal unless all other teams turn him down for multi-year deals.

[tobi0040]

The thing is that neither Pinto nor Vargas are can't-miss prospects. They both have issues going forward and their chance of failure is pretty high. If Morales was "blocking" Byron Buxton, I'd feel very differently about it.

 

Agreed 100%. If you have Mauer and Morales at DH/1B and Vargas is killing it....it gives you options and is not a bad problem to have. Maybe Mauer can move to LF, maybe you trade one.

 

I too would only be upset if Buxton, Sano, May, or Meyer are blocked.

[Guest USAFChief]

"It's time to make a decision."

Concur.

[PseudoSABR]

I am wondering how Pinto and Vargas get enough plate appearances to become proven. It may take 1000 major league plate appearances as a batter and league continue to adjust to each other.

Teams that give unproven players 1000 of at bats to prove themselves lose. There seems to be an assumption that players like Vargas and Pinto will prove themselves, and will be equal or better than Morales in the near future. If that assumption were a guarantee, we'd all agree with you.

 

Morales on a short deal only hurts the Twins if Vargas and Pinto will out-produce Morales over the next two years; we've seen how long it takes hitters to develop, from Parm to Plouffe, to Cuddy, to Hicks, etc. Mere repetition doesn't create major league hitters, it's making adjustments, and sometimes that needs to happen in the minors.

 

I just think they'll be plenty of at bats to go around given injury, developmental set backs, an ever evolving roster.

[tobi0040]

Guys, signing Morales for a year or 2 at 7 or 8 mil a year isn't happening. He won't take it and can probably get more on the open market for a short term deal. The only realistic options are :

 

1. Sign him long term - at least 3 years, at least 9-10 mil a year and it may take more.

2. Trade him before July 31 ( he won't pass waivers for an August deal) for prospects, and probably not A or even B+ prospects, maybe B and and a C, because he's not hitting.

3. Keep for the rest of this year and hope to re-sign him if no good market develops for him or be resigned to letting him walk away.

 

Those are the choices. I prefer number 2 because of his limitations in the field and our crowded first base options (although I am intrigued with Mauer in left and Morales at first, with Parmalee backing up both positions). I'd be ok with number one because you always need professional hitters and we don't know if Vargas or Pinto will develop. Let's just not go for number 3. It's time to make a decision.

 

I like 1 or 2, but if a two year deal at $15M total is not attainable, then he doesn't really want to play here. So be it. #2 it is.

[diehardtwinsfan]

IMO, The goal isn't to get minor leaguers opportunities. The goal is to win baseball games.

 

I don't know, but I'd wager a good sum of money that neither Vargas or Pinto have a career equal to Morales. That's not because I'm down on either, rather it's because the reality is most minor leaguers don't.

 

I strongly believe that the way to have long term success in MLB is to populate your team with good, proven players. Lots of em. You make room for minor leaguers when they force their way into the picture, and avoid at almost all costs creating room for them before they do. If, for a period of time, you have too many players, and not enough ABs to accommodate them, that's a good thing, and that situation is in no way a hindrance to winning, nor is it likely to stay that way for long.

 

On the other hand, not having enough good players, and depending on the minor leagues to supply them, is how you end up "waiting till next year" for a decade or two.

 

I agree with this, but the problem is that eventually, that good player you signed to a major deal is no longer a good player and is blocking guys who could out perform him. I'm fine personally with a short term deal for Morales knowing that the spot is free for 2015 for sure, but there are guys in A+/AA that look like they can be ready in a year and even an interesting bat in Romero at AAA who could in theory DH and occasionally be counted on being a butcher in the field for a fraction of the cost...

 

I might add that all of this is moot if Morales doesn't pick up the pace. He's been here for a month now. Spring training is over.

[Mike Sixel]

"they can't count on rookies" seem incongrous with "hold them down until they are ready"+"don't bring them up for experience sake", imo.

 

I don't think anyone here is assuming that Pinto or Vargas is likely to be as successful as Morales, I think (I know I am) people are arguing that adjustments and learning absolutely happen on the job, and waiting for everyone to come up and contribute on the same timeline seems risky.

 

people are saying on this thread that you can't count on rookies to produce right away, but then also arguing to hold guys down until they are "ready". You can't be both ready, and not producing.

[ashbury]

but there are guys in A+/AA that look like they can be ready in a year and even an interesting bat in Romero at AAA who could in theory DH and occasionally be counted on being a butcher in the field for a fraction of the cost...

 

The Twins' roster for the past several seasons reflects what can happen when a team says "if all else fails he can DH" for more than one or two players. IMO you have to be very selective in making that judgement, i.e. only for players whose bats are far above the norm. The Doumits and the Romeros don't cut it for me.