Transactions ahead?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Pfffft. I've played video games and thus know this to be untrue.

 

Yeah, the Duensing for Dylan Bundy trade might go down as one of the best of all time.

[TwinsTerritory]

Yadier Molina is out for 2-3 months. Hopefully Terry Ryan is on the phone to see if the Cardinals have any interest in Suzuki. They have a fairly deep farm system and might be willing to part with a decent prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm in the same camp. The most glaring and damaging deficiency with the Twins is that it appears they have no philosophy and discipline in place regarding the disposition of moveable assets. They fail to sell when the opportunities ate there way too often. They get in binds a la Hunter and Santana, and those types of failures set a franchise back big time.

 

I don't know about that. Around the time of Hunter and Santana, it actually was quite likely a better move to keep the player as long as you were a contending team in a winnable division, then sit back and collect the draft pick(s) when they left. (The Twins just didn't draft particularly well for a stretch there.) The Twins actually botched the Santana situation a bit by not doing just that, perhaps just as much as passing on the rumored Lester or Ellsbury offers.

 

The Twins got 2 draft picks for Hunter, 2 for Cuddyer (and one of them became Berrios), plus picks for Kubel, Crain, Orlando Hudson (!), and Dennys Reyes (!!).

 

Now draft pick comp isn't much of an issue, but that means those expiring contract players aren't worth as much to the receiving team either. Used to be a team could net a draft pick from picking up Dennys Reyes at the deadline, not so anymore.

[jokin]

I'm sure the O's and Jays would love to get Dozier, but I think you are undervaluing him with these types of proposals. I'm not sure either team has a prospect only package they could offer right now that would be enough. Trading Dozier would require a mlb player and no team is going to do that at the deadline.

 

 

Why would it have to include an MLB player? If the Jays would be interested in taking a package featuring Dozier and one or more Twins expiring contracts in exchange for a package that netted the Twins one, or both, of the Jays Top 100 pitchers plus some others, say, SP Daniel Norris (currently at AA) and near-MLB-ready catcher AJ Jiminez, that seems like a package worth considering.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd trade Dozier for Joc Pederson and another Dodger top 5 prospect, IF I thought Rosario or Polanco or Santana was ready to be the 2B next year (I just don't know). I personally do not need a MLB player back in return. I'd consider one of the Dodger top 2 pitchers, w/o Pederson, but then I'd need two more top 10 guys (since I think the pitchers are pretty far away).

[drjim]

Why would it have to include an MLB player? If the Jays would be interested in taking a package featuring Dozier and one or more Twins expiring contracts in exchange for a package that netted the Twins one, or both, of the Jays Top 100 pitchers plus some others, say, SP Daniel Norris (currently at AA) and near-MLB-ready catcher AJ Jiminez, that seems like a package worth considering.

 

I wouldn't do that package even without throwing in another player. You really undervalue Dozier imo.

[jokin]

I wouldn't do that package even without throwing in another player. You really undervalue Dozier imo.

 

Aaron Sanchez is a potential Ace, at age 22 and already knocking on the MLB door. You don't get many chances to acquire a cost-controlled, well-before-his-peak years, and potential #1-level starting pitcher.

[jokin]

I'd trade Dozier for Joc Pederson and another Dodger top 5 prospect, IF I thought Rosario or Polanco or Santana was ready to be the 2B next year (I just don't know). I personally do not need a MLB player back in return. I'd consider one of the Dodger top 2 pitchers, w/o Pederson, but then I'd need two more top 10 guys (since I think the pitchers are pretty far away).

 

Throw in Suzuki to the deal, the Dodger seem to really value Twins catchers....who knows what kind of haul you might bring back?

[jokin]

Yadier Molina is out for 2-3 months. Hopefully Terry Ryan is on the phone to see if the Cardinals have any interest in Suzuki. They have a fairly deep farm system and might be willing to part with a decent prospect.

 

They also might be able to finally spring John Jay from the Cards. Jay still offers two years of team control, a bridge to Buxton in CF, and possibly worth extending as quality long-term OF depth.

[drjim]

Aaron Sanchez is a potential Ace, at age 22 and already knocking on the MLB door. You don't get many chances to acquire a cost-controlled, well-before-his-peak years, and potential #1-level starting pitcher.

 

Nor do you have many opportunities to have cost controlled 20/20 2B with good OBP and elite defense that are actually at that level instead of potentially.

 

That trade will be there in the offseason and many other teams would be interested in some Dozier action as well (though the Twins would almost certainly not move him). There is no reason to trade him now unless you are blown away and then some.

 

And I don't want to dog Sanchez, very good prospect. Dozier is just worth more.

[Thrylos]

And 2B that are as good as Dozier and hit free agency are very rare indeed.

 

Not really. Cano is much better and he hit free agency. Dozier is probably one of the top 3 players in this Twins' team, but this does not mean much. He is an above average second baseman with holes in his play (Mainly making contact. That .235 batting average is awful.) Right now, he is behind Kinsler, Altuve, Cano, Zorbrist, Pedroia in the AL. Good player but not great. If someone is willing to give the Twins someone who can help next season and has higher potential than Dozier, they will be silly not to do it.

[drjim]

Not really. Cano is much better and he hit free agency. Dozier is probably one of the top 3 players in this Twins' team, but this does not mean much. He is an above average second baseman with holes in his play (Mainly making contact. That .235 batting average is awful.) Right now, he is behind Kinsler, Altuve, Cano, Zorbrist, Pedroia in the AL. Good player but not great. If someone is willing to give the Twins someone who can help next season and has higher potential than Dozier, they will be silly not to do it.

 

You named one guy who hit free agency, so I do appreciate you confirming my point.

 

Of the guys you listed, I would only put Cano and Kinsler clearly ahead of Dozier, and they make 45 and 30 times as much as Dozier this season and next, which is of course part of his value in a trade.

[Mr. Brooks]

I wouldn't do that package even without throwing in another player. You really undervalue Dozier imo.

 

The package he just suggested is basically the equivalent of Meyer, Berrios, Thorpe and Turner.

You'd be happy if the Twins traded all those guys for 1 good, but not elite player? I think you are overvaluing Dozier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think he is even more valuable than one top 20 prospect. For thought experiment, I don't think I would be happy if they traded him for Bundy, or for a more recent example, if they traded him straight up for Russell (or probably even the entire package the Cubs just got).

 

Depends on the prospect, really. If you get into top ten territory, that'd probably be enough for Dozier... Drift down a bit and you might have to sweeten the pot with another upside guy.

[drjim]

The package he just suggested is basically the equivalent of Meyer, Berrios, Thorpe and Turner.

You'd be happy if the Twins traded all those guys for 1 good, but not elite player? I think you are overvaluing Dozier.

 

You are correct, looking back I realize now that I misread what he wrote - I didn't catch he was adding Sanchez and Stroman in addition to the names he wrote. I would consider that a substantial offer and certainly worth consideration.

 

My apologies jokin.

[drjim]

Depends on the prospect, really. If you get into top ten territory, that'd probably be enough for Dozier... Drift down a bit and you might have to sweeten the pot with another upside guy.

 

Russell is generally considered around the #5 (or so) guy. I don't think I would swap Dozier for him

[TRex]

I like Mr. Brooks line of thought... would you trade Sano for Dozier? My answer is an overwhelming NO, and Addison is a better prospect at this point (who plays a premium defensive position).

[Linus]

Two thoughts:

I think we are all going to be disappointed with the activity at the trade deadline. With comp picks no longer available for the "rental" players, trade returns are going to be very low. Teams just aren't going to give up quality prospects for two months of the players we can offer, and contending teams won't be giving up MLB starters.

 

I also agree that, at some point, when you feel you are close, you can't trade away your best players. You have to have something to build around - if the Twins trade Dozier, they just open up one more hole for the next couple of years for a potential return some years away.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I like Mr. Brooks line of thought... would you trade Sano for Dozier? My answer is an overwhelming NO, and Addison is a better prospect at this point (who plays a premium defensive position).

 

I love Dozier but I'd trade him for Sano in a heartbeat.

[Brandon]

If the Twins Sweep Colorado they will be 45-49 heading into the break. We play Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Whitesox, and Kansas City. If we go 9-4 in those 13 games we are at 54-53. Do we go in sell mode at that? This is the easiest stretch of the schedule we have so at worst we should be 52-55. I don't know if I would want to sell at that point as I would rather see if we can be a better than .500 team this year. We have so many prospects that if all we can get is a c prospect, I might rather keep the player and see if we can win. Corriea might be the only exception as he may be blocking talent from arriving if Nolasco comes back healthy. But I wouldn't trade Corriea until after Nolasco is back.

[JB_Iowa]

If the Twins Sweep Colorado they will be 45-49 heading into the break. We play Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Whitesox, and Kansas City. If we go 9-4 in those 13 games we are at 54-53. Do we go in sell mode at that? This is the easiest stretch of the schedule we have so at worst we should be 52-55. I don't know if I would want to sell at that point as I would rather see if we can be a better than .500 team this year. We have so many prospects that if all we can get is a c prospect, I might rather keep the player and see if we can win. Corriea might be the only exception as he may be blocking talent from arriving if Nolasco comes back healthy. But I wouldn't trade Corriea until after Nolasco is back.

 

While I appreciate your sentiment, I hope the Twins don't fall into this trap. It seems like at various times over the last 3 years, they just couldn't decide if they were buyers or sellers.

 

I've seen enough to believe that they are not a playoff-worthy team. That makes them sellers to me and I hope that TR take advantage of it.

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins Sweep Colorado they will be 45-49 heading into the break. We play Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Whitesox, and Kansas City. If we go 9-4 in those 13 games we are at 54-53. Do we go in sell mode at that? This is the easiest stretch of the schedule we have so at worst we should be 52-55. I don't know if I would want to sell at that point as I would rather see if we can be a better than .500 team this year. We have so many prospects that if all we can get is a c prospect, I might rather keep the player and see if we can win. Corriea might be the only exception as he may be blocking talent from arriving if Nolasco comes back healthy. But I wouldn't trade Corriea until after Nolasco is back.

 

I am on board. The Twins need to sweep the Rockies on the way to a 12-4 record in the next 16 games to roll with this season. Anything short of that performance and the Twins sell aggressively. Sign me up.

[TheLeviathan]

If the Twins Sweep Colorado they will be 45-49 heading into the break. We play Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Whitesox, and Kansas City. If we go 9-4 in those 13 games we are at 54-53. Do we go in sell mode at that? This is the easiest stretch of the schedule we have so at worst we should be 52-55.

 

This is most definitely not the worst case scenario. In any case if you have to imagine going 12-4 to be a fringe contender......you aren't a contender.

[tobi0040]

Another favorite potential trading partner of mine, chock full of pitching prospects, and with specific needs that match with the Twins potential trade subjects:

 

 

 

Suzuki, Dozier and possibly Correia (KC's numbers, although admittedly smoke and mirrors, over June and July, are near as good as Baltimore's 3 best SPs and much better than the bottom 3- Ubaldo, Chen, Gonzalez).

 

And if they want to dump Delmon, there's Willingham as a replacement.

 

If we only had Bud Norris to dangle for Dylan Bundy.

[tobi0040]

While I appreciate your sentiment, I hope the Twins don't fall into this trap. It seems like at various times over the last 3 years, they just couldn't decide if they were buyers or sellers.

 

I've seen enough to believe that they are not a playoff-worthy team. That makes them sellers to me and I hope that TR take advantage of it.

 

I completely agree. I wish they knew what they were then and are now. We need to take a real hard look at this roster and conclude this isn't a team that is going to go 52-19 to close out this year and end with the 94 win pace the Tigers are on. I am guessing it takes at least 89-90 wins for the second wild card, this just isn't happening.

 

Let's move towards 2015. Trade KC, Josh, Morales, and Suzuki (if you get a nice haul for Suzuki and he doesn't want to sign a reasonable extension) and bring up Meyer and May. Time to get on with it.

[ericchri]

Hate to pile on, but anytime you have to start with "If the Twins sweep..." you're really reaching. It's possible, but unlikely.

 

I don't see much reason to rule out trading anyone, but that also doesn't mean have a firesale. With Dozier you want to be very careful, he's proven his ability to play well in the majors at this point and still has years of team control. Proven major league ability trumps prospect status which is why he's worth a lot in a trade and demands a very good return. But if somebody offers up a really good package it does look like we have prospects that can fill the position that are just about ready. Escobar can fill the position for a bit, too, once Santana's back. There's never a guarantee with prospects or trades, though and that's why the offer for Dozier has to be really good. He's been pretty much our only consistently decent hitter for the last year+.

[Brandon]

Hasn't Colorado lost 17 of their last 20? that's where the increase in possibility of a sweep against them comes from. The Twins have their record against better competition then they are playing right now to get to the record they have. I think if they are around .500 at the deadline they should sit still and not move everyone. What do you expect them to be able to get? we have lots of prospects but wouldn't it be better to build a foundation of winning that the prospects coming up can move into than getting a C level prospect at best in a trade?

[TheLeviathan]

I think if they are around .500 at the deadline they should sit still and not move everyone. What do you expect them to be able to get? we have lots of prospects but wouldn't it be better to build a foundation of winning that the prospects coming up can move into than getting a C level prospect at best in a trade?

 

The guys we want to trade (other than maybe Suzuki) are unlikely to be Twins anymore after September. So getting a C level prospect is better than nothing. And it clears them out of the way for younger players the last two months.

 

This isn't a contending team. Even a flukey 16 game stretch going 12-4 isn't going to change that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is the easiest stretch of the schedule we have so at worst we should be 52-55.

 

At worst, we should win 13 of 19 games?

 

Love your optimism, but man.

 

And at 52-55, that winning percentage would still likely leave us 4th place in the division, 10 games behind Detroit, and 5 games (and 5 teams) behind the 2nd wild card.

 

All of this at the conclusion of, by far, our best stretch of baseball for the season.

 

I just can't see any way we're not sellers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Escobar can fill the position for a bit, too, once Santana's back.

 

Don't look now, but Escobar's down to an 87 OPS+, with a sub-.300 OBP.

 

And Danny Santana's line? Virtually identical to that of Escobar on June 1st, right down to the K/BB rates.

 

Our next closest infield prospect is struggling in AA.

 

OK, I think I've convinced myself not to trade Dozier.