Trade Likelyhoods

[stringer bell]

Since my favorite source is cluttered with international signings and it is July, I thought I would start a thread about Twins' trade candidates. I think by the All-Star break the "why not us" will be "maybe next year" and veterans will be dangled for trade. There are a lot of factors about every deadline trade. I'll try to provide as much as I know about each trade candidate.

 

1) Kurt Suzuki. Value to Twins--High. Suzuki is highly regarded by the Twins and his prospective backup has struggled defensively. Value to other teams--High. Suzuki is a proven receiver and a good clubhouse guy. He's durable and is having a fine offensive year. 3) Contract--no problem. Suzuki is on a one-year deal and his $3M contract for two months would total about $1M. The only thing keeping the Twins from moving Suzuki is that he has been very good for the team, and he doesn't have an immediate replacement. I think there's only a 20-40% chance they trade him because of his value to the team.

 

2) Josh Willingham. Value to Twins--Medium high. Hammer is a top power threat for a team that doesn't have enough power. He's a poor, but willing fielder playing at less than a premium defensive position. Value to others--Medium high. He can give a power boost to a contender, but he's limited in the positions he can play. 3) Contract--For the last third of the season, he would be due $2.3M. That isn't nothing, but most clubs could afford his salary. I think the team will be trying hard to move Hammer. He's 35 and limited, but he could put a contender over the top to make the playoffs. 40-60% chance he'll be moved, either at the July deadline or in August.

 

3) Kevin Correia. Value to Twins--Medium low. He's an innings-eater and back of the rotation starter on a non-contender. The Twins have many prospective replacements. Value to other teams--Given his recent "surge", Medium to medium high. All contenders will be looking for pitching. 3) Not a problem. An expiring contract with about $1.8M due in the last two months. I expect Correia to be traded, with a somewhat disappointing return. 80% probability.

 

4) Brian Duensing. Value to Twins--medium low. He is a versatile lefty, who is having a pretty good year, despite diminishing peripherals. There are replacements in the system, but probably none offering the skill and experience. Value to others--Medium. He doesn't have great platoon splits to become a lefty specialist and he's not a strikeout artist. He provides depth, when contenders will be riding their best pitchers. Contact--less than a million will be due at the trade deadline. Not a problem. I think as least one of the Twins' bullpen will be moved. Duensing is a prime candidate--50% probability.

 

5) Jared Burton. Value to Twins--medium low. He's currently used in fairly high leverage situations. His effectiveness has diminished since his fine 2012 season. Replacements are available. Value to others--Medium low. Again, if he can recapture his magic from 2012, he would be a hot commodity. Not sure anybody will be willing to give anything for him. 3) Contract--a little much for a bullpen piece. More than a million due at the deadline, plus an .2M option buyout. I doubt anyone will offer anything of substance for Burton, but he could be released. 10% trade possibility.

 

6) Kendrys Morales. Value to Twins--medium low. A switch-hitting DH with a record of producing runs. Value to others--Perhaps pretty high. If a team needs a hitter at first or DH, Morales could be very valuable. Much depends on how he hits this month. Contract--Substantial--He'll be owed more than $4M for the last third of the season. If Morales finds his stroke in this month, the Twins could get something pretty good for him. If he's meh or worse, they won't get much and might want to hold on to him with the hope of re-signing him for 2015. Chance of being traded 40%.

 

7) Everybody else. The Twins could get brave and try to move Plouffe while his value is high and his salary is low. Somebody might want Casey Fien and maybe someone with an infield vacancy might inquire about Nuñez. The Twins could surprise us and move one of these guys.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Pretty good summary. I'd note with Suzuki that the Twins do have a replacement in Pinto. He's just going to have to learn some of that defense at the ML level, though his bat should more than compensate for some of those deficiencies... If the Twins are trading, they are out of it, so developing Pinto at the ML level makes sense given that his bat is ready now.

 

With KC, there's replacements who are more than ready to take his place. TR will have no leverage here, so I'm guessing at best we are looking at a Sulbaran type prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was traded for cash considerations either. With his resurgence, he's a decent 5 starter, and some teams really really really need something like that right now.

 

With Duensing, we lose the ability to add his name to sweeten any trade for one of baseball stars... Loss to TD is immense.

[twinsfan34]

The only 'hiccup' I can see with trading or cleaning house...is will it deter players from signing here going forward?

 

I can Willingham or Morales being traded quite easily. Not sure about Suzuki...kinda have a feeling he may want to stay and the Twins may feel the same.

 

I'm fine with listening to any offers on anyone besides Dozier and Hughes.

[Kwak]

Of the name mentioned, Suzuki is the only one who would be perceived as "other than a salary dump" and capable of fetching a useful return. If the Twins are serious about retaining Suzuki--they need to sign him to a "suitable" contract extention before the end of July, or they had better trade him!

[ashbury]

To assess the likelihood of trades, I think the expected value returned in trade has to be considered. Is this wrapped up in your "value to others" ratings? I.e. you think Suzuki would net us a better prospect than Willingham, who would net us a better prospect than Correia, who would... ?

 

Where does "pretty high" rank relative to "medium high"?

 

And ultimately, what kind of prospect do you think gets offered for someone of "high" value like Suzuki? I'm not sure much of anything important will be obtained for the guys with 2+ months remaining on their contracts, thanks in part to the recent changes in free agent compensation. (I bet Stephen Drew and our own Kendrys Morales wish they had been traded last July. )

[diehardtwinsfan]

The only 'hiccup' I can see with trading or cleaning house...is will it deter players from signing here going forward?

 

I'd say this is an issue for guys who signed long term deals and are 1 year in... not so much for guys like Hammer, Suzuki, or Morales. It's kind of expected in that scenario. Perkins, Nolasco (not that he'd fetch anything), and Hughes would be a different story.

[dougkoebernick]

I hope they make an offer to Suzuki to extend his contract a year or two and keep him before the trade deadline. However, I'm guessing it would take two years to make him sign and I'm not sure the Twins will want to commit two years to him - though if they do they can always trade him in 2016 if necessary.

[tobi0040]

I hope they make an offer to Suzuki to extend his contract a year or two and keep him before the trade deadline. However, I'm guessing it would take two years to make him sign and I'm not sure the Twins will want to commit two years to him - though if they do they can always trade him in 2016 if necessary.

 

 

I agree with almost everything on the write up. The one issue is I don't think Willingham's value to us is medium high. If we are in contention then I agree, I don't think we are making a run here though. He isn't going to be here next year....

 

I agree with Doug, I would like to see Suzuki get extended 1-2 years, unless it is crazy money. I don't think we trust Pinto at all and what is behind him or on the market next year is scary.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Suzuki isn't going anywhere -- the Twins clearly don't think Pinto is ready to be a full-time MLB catcher (if he ever will be). And I think Correia is staying too -- his value is always pretty low and there's already another open rotation spot for AAA starter auditions (currently occupied by Pino).

 

I think Willingham and Morales are about it for realistic trade candidates, and even then, they seem to value Hammer pretty highly, and Morales might not generate much interest unless his bat heats up.

 

The Twins have historically been very comfortable keeping guys and letting them leave as free agents, although most of that was before the new FA compensation rules. Still, I don't expect them to make any major moves.

[tobi0040]

Suzuki isn't going anywhere -- the Twins clearly don't think Pinto is ready to be a full-time MLB catcher (if he ever will be). And I think Correia is staying too -- his value is always pretty low and there's already another open rotation spot for AAA starter auditions (currently occupied by Pino).

 

I think Willingham and Morales are about it for realistic trade candidates, and even then, they seem to value Hammer pretty highly, and Morales might not generate much interest unless his bat heats up.

 

The Twins have historically been very comfortable keeping guys and letting them leave as free agents, although most of that was before the new FA compensation rules. Still, I don't expect them to make any major moves.

 

I agree, if Willingham or Correia get a draft pick attached they are going nowhere fast.

[cmathewson]

Suzuki isn't going anywhere -- the Twins clearly don't think Pinto is ready to be a full-time MLB catcher (if he ever will be). And I think Correia is staying too -- his value is always pretty low and there's already another open rotation spot for AAA starter auditions (currently occupied by Pino).

 

I think Willingham and Morales are about it for realistic trade candidates, and even then, they seem to value Hammer pretty highly, and Morales might not generate much interest unless his bat heats up.

 

The Twins have historically been very comfortable keeping guys and letting them leave as free agents, although most of that was before the new FA compensation rules. Still, I don't expect them to make any major moves.

 

I could see keeping Morales and offering him a qualifying offer. Doubt he'd turn it down this time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could see keeping Morales and offering him a qualifying offer. Doubt he'd turn it down this time.

 

They can't. He would have had to have been on the roster day 1 for this to happen.

[stringer bell]

I agree, if Willingham or Correia get a draft pick attached they are going nowhere fast.

??????

[Willihammer]

I think the Twins are in a strong position with Hammer. If he stays healthy, he's a QO candidate and I for one would hope he accepts. He is by far the most productive outfielder in the system, and maybe the most productive batter period.

 

If they can get a haul in trade, great. A comp round pick would be a good outcome too. So they should be very picky about what sort of offers they are willing to entertain IMO.

[jorgenswest]

A qualifying offer will be around 15 million. The Twins don't have anyone on an expiring contract that will get near that salary for 2015. They won't be making qualifying offers.

[TheLeviathan]

I think the Twins are in a strong position with Hammer. If he stays healthy, he's a QO candidate and I for one would hope he accepts. He is by far the most productive outfielder in the system, and maybe the most productive batter period.

 

If they can get a haul in trade, great. A comp round pick would be a good outcome too. So they should be very picky about what sort of offers they are willing to entertain IMO.

 

You want to pay Josh Willingham at 36 years old 15M?

 

[Brandon]

I can see the Twins trading Corriea and 1 or 2 of the bullpen arms. I don't see them doing much else. I see them resigning Willingham in the offseason and if Morales hits I can see the Twins trying to resign him too. Next year we have Sano, Buxton, maybe Rosario and maybe Vargas who is in AA this year tearing it up. that means we have the following lineup.

 

2b Dozier

1B Mauer

DH Morales

LF Willingham

3B Sano

RF Arcia

C Suzuki

SS Escobar/ Santana

CF Buxton

 

Santana starts the year in CF and moves out when Buxton arrives. I put Buxton batting 9th cause he is a rookie. But doesn't this look like a nice lineup...... also impressive is the hitters on the bench too (as bench bats and not starting all the time except for Plouffe and Pinto).

Plouffe, Parmelee, Colabello, Pinto,

 

and that bench would make it easier to handle an injury.

[Willihammer]

You want to pay Josh Willingham at 36 years old 15M?

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]8096[/ATTACH]

 

Nelson Cruz 2013: .833 OPS, 2.2 WAR

Kendrys Morales 2013: .785 OPS, 2.8 WAR

Carlos Beltran 2013: .830 OPS, 2.4 WAR

Hammer 2014: .841 OPS, 1.0 WAR

 

At this rate, it would be a mistake not to offer Hammer a QO

[Brandon]

Nelson Cruz 2013: .833 OPS, 2.2 WAR

Kendrys Morales 2013: .785 OPS, 2.8 WAR

Carlos Beltran 2013: .830 OPS, 2.4 WAR

Hammer 2014: .841 OPS, 1.0 WAR

 

At this rate, it would be a mistake not to offer Hammer a QO

 

I would think we could get him signed to a 1 or 2 year extension without have to make the QO. If we have to make the QO then we could always resign Cuddyer or Hunter to come back and take his place.

[TwinsTerritory]

If the Twins decide to be sellers in the next couple weeks, I would hope Terry Ryan would keep an open mind when other teams call. In my mind, you can put the trade pieces in 4 groups.

 

Group A--Not under contract in 2015, Some Value, Most Likely to be Traded

1. Morales: If he starts to hit, he would have the most value to a team with playoff aspirations. While he's struggled since joining the Twins, he has a history of being a solid major league hitter. Money could scare off a few teams, but most playoff teams won't be concerned if they think he's the missing piece. His lack of a position on defense eliminates a few teams as well. I just don't see him having a place on the Twins roster in the future. I have a hard time believing that Scott Boras won't be pushing hard to get him a multi-year deal after the fiasco this off-season and I don't see the Twins being willing to lock him up to DH with guys like Arcia, Sano, Pinto, and Vargas coming up. If I were Terry Ryan, I would push hard to trade him for mid-level prospects.

 

2. Suzuki: I see him having the 2nd most value to other teams. He has been great for the Twins, but he's really only a fit for teams that have a need at catcher which limits potential fits. Gardenhire seems to love him, so I think the Twins value him as much as anyone else which may make an extension more likely. If I were Terry Ryan, I'd gauge interest in Suzuki and trade him if I felt the return was adequate and hope that we could possibly resign him in the off-season.

 

3. Willingham: In my mind, he has the 3rd most value. His bat could play on a few playoff teams as a platoon player that plays some OF, DH, and a big bat off the bench. I don't think the return would be anything special, maybe an a class A prospect or two. I don't see him having a ton of value to the Twins, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him sign a 1-year deal with the Twins. If I were Terry Ryan, I'd try to trade him, but only if I'm getting someone of value. If not, I keep him as a decent bat and discuss a 1-year deal in the off-season.

 

Group B: Not under contract in 2015, Little to No Value, More likely released than traded

 

1. Correia: He would have to pitch much better to have any value as a #5 starter on a playoff team.

 

2. Guerrier: Guys like him are a dime a dozen and can be picked up off the waiver wire.

 

Group C--Under control beyond 2014, Little Value, May not have a place on 2015 roster

 

1. Burton: I really doubt the Twins would pay him $3.6 million for 2015, so it looks like a $200,000 buyout in the off season. I doubt he has any value on trade market. I would guess he finishes out the season and is bought out.

 

2. Duensing: Has some value, but Twins probably don't want to pay him close to $3 million through arbitration in 2015. May bring back a low-level prospect and that trade should be made if the Twins don't see him being part of the 2015 team.

 

3. Pelfrey: What was Terry Ryan thinking?

 

Group D: Under team control for a few years, Lots of value, Very, very unlikely to be traded

 

1. Dozier: Dozier is a very good 2B that has an above average bat, speed, and solid defense. The return would have to be huge since the Twins have him under control for a few years.

Potential fits: Orioles, Yankees, Giants

 

2. Perkins: An above average closer always has value to playoff teams and being left handed won't hurt either. With a reasonable salary (for a closer) over the next 3 years I doubt the Twins are eager to trade him, but they should listen if someone wants to blow them out of the water.

Potential fits: Orioles, Indians, Tigers, Angels, Pirates, Giants

 

3. Plouffe: Not as valuable as the other two, but being a 3rd baseman could make him intriguing to a few teams with a need. Since he is under control for 3 years, I think the Twins would need to get a prospect that is close to major league ready.

Potential fits: Royals, Angels, Yankees

[TwinsTerritory]

Nelson Cruz 2013: .833 OPS, 2.2 WAR

Kendrys Morales 2013: .785 OPS, 2.8 WAR

Carlos Beltran 2013: .830 OPS, 2.4 WAR

Hammer 2014: .841 OPS, 1.0 WAR

 

At this rate, it would be a mistake not to offer Hammer a QO

 

 

Your comparisons are interesting. Clearly Cruz and Morales should have accepted the QO, so that would tell me that the teams probably overvalued them and/or wanted the draft pick compensation believing they'd decline the offers. Beltran did have a 2.4 WAR in 2013, but also had a 3.6 WAR in 2012, had been healthy, and found a team (Yankees) with money to spend and a big desire to win. Unless Willingham hits 20 home runs in the 2nd half, there is no way on earth that the Twins make him a QO. Looking at last year's free agent outfielders, here would be the most similar players in my mind (they don't all bring similar skills, but they're in their 30s and are borderline starters with some injury issues) and what they signed for.

 

Name Age Contract

Marlon Byrd 36 2yrs/$16 million

Nate McLouth 32 2yrs/$10.75

Michael Morse 32 1yr/$6

David Murphy 32 2yrs/$12

 

If the Twins value bringing Willingham back (which I think they may), I would guess a 1 year deal in the 6-8 million dollar range to DH and play some outfield. I really can't see a team giving him more than 2 years or more than $8 million annually.

[Kwak]

You want to pay Josh Willingham at 36 years old 15M?

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]8096[/ATTACH]

 

 

There is such a thing as a "bad 1-year contract"!

[cmathewson]

They can't. He would have had to have been on the roster day 1 for this to happen.

 

Forgot about that. He's as good as gone, as is Willingham. I'd like to trade the rest, except Suzuki, but I doubt there are any takers.

[Thrylos]

I think that what the Twins will do and what they should do might be two different things.

 

What they should do is simple:

 

a. sell high (Group A)

b. buy low

c. try to get something from free agents to be whose contracts you will not renew (Group .

 

Sell high group (Group A):

 

Perkins, Dozier, Suzuki, Fien, Thielbar, D. Santana (maybe even Parmelee.)

 

 

Get some value group (Group :

 

Willingham, Morales, (these 2 could be on group A as well, if they turn it around fast) Correia, Burton, Guerrier. If you do not think that the Twins can get any moving parts, remember the trades the Twins did for Guardado, Randy Flores, Brian Fuentes. Someone got something out of nothing (re: current relievers in this list)

 

 

Pretty simple as far as I am concerned.

 

What they will do is a different story.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Perk, Dozier, Santana, and (maybe even Parmelee) are all a part of the future. Why on earth would they sell on them? I could see Perk simply b/c relievers tend to collapse abruptly, but the rest are young and cost controlled for quite some time.

[Thrylos]

Perk, Dozier, Santana, and (maybe even Parmelee) are all a part of the future. Why on earth would they sell on them? I could see Perk simply b/c relievers tend to collapse abruptly, but the rest are young and cost controlled for quite some time.

 

Because all are likely at peak value. Do what the Rays do. You cannot sell players with low value (or give them away for nothing) and expect to compete just using the draft after 4 seasons of mess. A 90+ loss team does not need Perkins. Perkins is 31+ & starting his declining phase. I doubt that Santana is anything more than a UT type of player and the Twins have many better SSs in the pipeline, starting with the gentleman who got a cup of water last week. Dozier is a good player on top of his value. He might look like a star compared to this mess of characters, but he is not. .234 batting average and about .180 IsoP. Remember Ploufe a couple seasons ago? If one can get a high return for Dozier, it is a no brainer, as far as I am concerned.

 

Got to sell high and cannot have untouchables in a 99+96+96+??? Team.

[howeda7]

Unless they somehow get back to .500 before 7/31, Willingham and Morales should absolutely be traded. So should Corriea and Burton if they have any value. Suzuki should either be traded or signed to an extension, I strongly prefer trading him. He'll never hit this well again, and Pinto is not nearly as raw as he's being portrayed.

 

As for Plouffe/Duensing, neither is a FA and both have value to the 2015 Twins. Further, neither will bring much in return. I'd keep both, Plouffe for sure.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You want to pay Josh Willingham at 36 years old 15M?

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]8096[/ATTACH]

No one wants to Kendrys Morales, and Hammer took much less than that per year the first time.

[TheLeviathan]

Nelson Cruz 2013: .833 OPS, 2.2 WAR

Kendrys Morales 2013: .785 OPS, 2.8 WAR

Carlos Beltran 2013: .830 OPS, 2.4 WAR

Hammer 2014: .841 OPS, 1.0 WAR

 

At this rate, it would be a mistake not to offer Hammer a QO

 

So the answer is "yes I want to give Willingham 15M for 2015"

 

Because there is literally zero chance he doesnt take that. I cant think of anything more irrational to do with him next year

Holy cow.

[howeda7]

Because all are likely at peak value. Do what the Rays do. You cannot sell players with low value (or give them away for nothing) and expect to compete just using the draft after 4 seasons of mess. A 90+ loss team does not need Perkins. Perkins is 31+ & starting his declining phase. I doubt that Santana is anything more than a UT type of player and the Twins have many better SSs in the pipeline, starting with the gentleman who got a cup of water last week. Dozier is a good player on top of his value. He might look like a star compared to this mess of characters, but he is not. .234 batting average and about .180 IsoP. Remember Ploufe a couple seasons ago? If one can get a high return for Dozier, it is a no brainer, as far as I am concerned.

 

Got to sell high and cannot have untouchables in a 99+96+96+??? Team.

 

You don't dig out from 90 losses by trading your best young players for prospects you hope might be as good one day. We are not the Rays. The Rays = the Twins in the Metrodome. We don't need to trade every young player before they get 'expensive' to compete. Trade guys who are pending FA's, sure. But not Dozier, Santana, Hughes, etc.

 

I can see the argument for trading Perkins. But he just signed an extension with a home town discount. They're not trading him right now. I think he may even have gotten a no-trade for at last the first couple years of the deal.