Twins' Trade Bait and Why the Twins Should Sell

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not against them selling. Not terribly against them going for it either. Selling on Hughes though is a bad idea. Morales, Suzuki, and KC are all free agents this offseason, none of which are getting a QO, so I don't see a problem trading them if the Twins don't feel they are in the long term plan. The fact that they signed Morales though indicates to me that they have no intention of selling.

[zwiefz]

Even players we perceive as having little or no value can end up helping. At the time Liriano had 'no value' and now we have Escobar. At the time Morneau had 'no value', and to Pittsburg he was of no value-but we end up with Kris Johnson out of the deal. Ryan Doumit had 'no value' but we got Gilmartin out of it. And last but not least(or is it first in this type of discussion) is the great Drew Butera. His trade for Michael Sulburan was nothing more than an afterthought, but half a season later it brought us Eduardo Nunez who is proving to be a pretty valuable guy.

 

So my point is-in this quest to get the Twins back to being a legitimate post season threat no deal should be left unexplored. I want the Twins to get back to being great and when they get there I want them to stay there. That requires both short and long term vision. The deals I mentioned above show that there has been at least a little of both since TR has been back in charge. And that is why I am optimistic about this season and beyond.

[DocBauer]

I appreciate the enthusiasm. I really do. But no. No pretty much across the board.

 

Hughes is still young, a former top 100 prospect who had #2 starter potential "ace" ability. His career has been marked with high and low inconsistency. He seems to have found new life, new hope, and a new home. And dare I say it, is pitching like an ACE. You don't trade that. Especially when this team is getting so close with its young talent.

 

Morales is a proven veteran producer, recently signed. Not sure what the rules dictate about trading him so soon, but again I say no. I'm in favor of actually trying to re-sign him. Again, he's a proven producer, and this offense needs some of that, this year, and next, awaiting the arrival of youngsters.

 

I am sooo tired of hearing how the Twins should have traded Willingham after his career in 2012. Who was clamoring then to trade our best HR RBI threat when that season ended? Nobody I'd say. 20-20 backwards vision is always a great thing. Now? If he keeps producing he might bring something to a team making a move. I'm not opposed. But he's just going to bring back a top prospect at this point. Is he more valuable to us this season or an A prospect. Heck, he might even be an option for us next season on a 1 year deal.

 

Correia, gone next season anyway, if he continues his positive trend, might be the one guy who might have value for a contending team to flush out its rotation.

 

Suzuki? He might have some decent value. But to me, he's a lot like Willinham in that he might be more valuable to us than what he brings. And what about next season? Let's say Pinto is ready to catch 50-75% off all games next season as our primary C, and I hope he is, who is the backup? Re-signing Suzuki might be a better option than hitting the FA market again.

[ashbury]

I am sooo tired of hearing how the Twins should have traded Willingham after his career in 2012. Who was clamoring then to trade our best HR RBI threat when that season ended? Nobody I'd say. 20-20 backwards vision is always a great thing.

 

The backwards vision also needs to include this fact: Josh ended the 2012 season injured.

 

Nobody had outbid the Twins, because durability was the issue. He then had a career year, but confirmed the worries at the end. The other teams may have been happy to let a bottom-feeder team like the Twins assume the risk inherent in the contract, and then swoop in if the risk proved to be negligible. That scenario did not wind up playing out.

 

The contract hasn't turned out to be team friendly; it's instead been approximately market-correct all in all (with some months left to go of course). You don't get much in trade, for a contract perceived to be market-correct - otherwise, the team you're trading with would have signed him in the first place.

[howeda7]

People tend to over-react after a bad loss. You can't trade Willingham and Morales and Corriea and Deduno Suzuki and Burton and Duensing and Hughes.

 

Corriea and Burton should be traded as soon as you can get anything for them. Willingham, Morales and Suzuki should be traded if we're not withing 4-5 games on 7/31. Duensing or Deduno if the offer makes sense.

 

Trading Hughes or Dozier is completely foolish. We are trying to build a legit contender in 2015. Trading away guys who should clearly be key players in it is not the answer.

[Butterfingers8]

Trading Hughes would be utterly stupid. Give me an all-star quality pitcher, especially with a team friendly Deal, in the prime of his career, over a prospect any day!

[Mr. Brooks]

Correia and Willingham are trade-able. It would be crazy to trade Hughes, Morales and Suzuki.

 

Why would it be crazy to trade Suzuki or Morales?

They are both here on 1 year deals. These are exactly the kind of players that selling teams SHOULD be trading.

[TheLeviathan]

I am sooo tired of hearing how the Twins should have traded Willingham after his career in 2012. Who was clamoring then to trade our best HR RBI threat when that season ended? Nobody I'd say.

This did not require hindsight. I know I was one of a few back in 2012 BEGGING the Twins to sell high on him at the deadline. The guy was mashing in July, he screamed "I'm only going to get hurt a lot in the future", and his odds of matching that production were slim.

 

People, mistakenly, convinced themselves an injury prone guy with a softball player's body was going to somehow become more productive and durable into his mid-30s and be more valuable in the final year of his contract. (The argument was that an additional 2 years and 14M was somehow destroying his trade value in 2012)

 

Some of us were railing against that aggressively back in 2012 and, yes, clamoring for us to move him. No 20-20 hindsight required on that one - every argument made by the advocates in 2012 of dealing Willingham came true because none of it should be all that shocking if you look at his career.

[kblack1011]

Considering trade offers should always be looked at if you are not contending, certainly on players who are not signed for next year. You would have to blown away with an offer for Hughes or Dozier to consider trading them sense they are under team control for a reseasonble amount.

[jokin]

This did not require hindsight. I know I was one of a few back in 2012 BEGGING the Twins to sell high on him at the deadline. The guy was mashing in July, he screamed "I'm only going to get hurt a lot in the future", and his odds of matching that production were slim.

 

People, mistakenly, convinced themselves an injury prone guy with a softball player's body was going to somehow become more productive and durable into his mid-30s and be more valuable in the final year of his contract. (The argument was that an additional 2 years and 14M was somehow destroying his trade value in 2012)

 

Some of us were railing against that aggressively back in 2012 and, yes, clamoring for us to move him. No 20-20 hindsight required on that one - every argument made by the advocates in 2012 of dealing Willingham came true because none of it should be all that shocking if you look at his career.

 

Yep, we were in the exact same camp, and on these very pages, too. Signing veteran FAs, on a rebuilding team- as clearly the Twins were at the time, behooves said team to move any of those FA assets upon which they temporarily strike gold. The Twins had little left to sell high with after trading Span and Revere, they clearly missed the chance after the 2012 season. Josh had a career year in 2012- and a history of injuries longer than his shirt sleeve.

 

Of course they should have moved Willingham, just as many of us also clamored that they should have moved, rather than extended (dumb!), Jared Burton and Ryan Doumit, for whatever they could get after the end of 2012.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This did not require hindsight. I know I was one of a few back in 2012 BEGGING the Twins to sell high on him at the deadline. The guy was mashing in July, he screamed "I'm only going to get hurt a lot in the future", and his odds of matching that production were slim.

 

People, mistakenly, convinced themselves an injury prone guy with a softball player's body was going to somehow become more productive and durable into his mid-30s and be more valuable in the final year of his contract. (The argument was that an additional 2 years and 14M was somehow destroying his trade value in 2012)

 

Some of us were railing against that aggressively back in 2012 and, yes, clamoring for us to move him. No 20-20 hindsight required on that one - every argument made by the advocates in 2012 of dealing Willingham came true because none of it should be all that shocking if you look at his career.

 

I'm fairly certain that quite a few people wanted to trade him 2012. The issue at hand was what another GM would have given for an oft-injured aging slugger with 2 1/2 years left on his deal. I'm guessing not much, as most GMs knew there would be a large risk of having 2013 Willingham happen to them. If he keeps mashing, you may get a decent prospect at the deadline. I'm not sure that would have been the case in 2012.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm fairly certain that quite a few people wanted to trade him 2012. The issue at hand was what another GM would have given for an oft-injured aging slugger with 2 1/2 years left on his deal. I'm guessing not much, as most GMs knew there would be a large risk of having 2013 Willingham happen to them. If he keeps mashing, you may get a decent prospect at the deadline. I'm not sure that would have been the case in 2012.

 

That was part of the debate at the time and none of us can know what was on the table. But I'm 100% sure now of what I was reasonably sure of back in 2012 - never was Hammer's value higher than in July of 2012.

[DaveW]

Wasn't it said at the time in 2012 that he still only would have fetched a C level prospect?

[TheLeviathan]

Wasn't it said at the time in 2012 that he still only would have fetched a C level prospect?

 

That was what posters/fans speculated. The Twins, so far as I know, never even entertained the idea. Here's one tweet from the time:

 

#Twins have yet to put Josh Willingham on trade market, source says. He is in high demand, esp. after Carlos Quentin extension. @MLBONFOX

 

This was from Jayson Stark at the time:

 

• The Twins' asking prices for Morneau ("pricey"), Denard Span ("more pricey"), andJosh Willingham ("it made me laugh") are high. Minnesota insists they will listen on anyone and Stark says Morneau is the bat they're most likely to move. Francisco Liriano is "nearly 100 percent" likely to be traded.
  

[Marta Shearing]

They missed a chance to trade Dozier at peak value. I like his defense and power numbers, but too many 0-4's. Too many strikeouts with RISP. In hindsight, I'd have traded him when he was going good.

[tobi0040]

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to keep Hughes, but considering what he can fetch as trade bait, he's the best bait we got. I'd hate to see him regress or get hurt and get nothing for a great signing that paid off for a team that misses the playoffs...especially with three starters in Rochester who deserve a shot.

 

Hughes has always been, from ages 20-27 a #2 or #3 starter if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium (4.11 ERA). We have him under contract for another 2.5 years and given the fact that he sought out the Twins because of the ballpark and he is now seeing sucess, I have some hope if he is still pitching well next year that he would be interested in an extension. Young, cheap, very good, confident now. Keep the guy.

 

I agree about the other guys, but not Hughes. He is part of the solution here.

[tobi0040]

This did not require hindsight. I know I was one of a few back in 2012 BEGGING the Twins to sell high on him at the deadline. The guy was mashing in July, he screamed "I'm only going to get hurt a lot in the future", and his odds of matching that production were slim.

 

People, mistakenly, convinced themselves an injury prone guy with a softball player's body was going to somehow become more productive and durable into his mid-30s and be more valuable in the final year of his contract. (The argument was that an additional 2 years and 14M was somehow destroying his trade value in 2012)

 

Some of us were railing against that aggressively back in 2012 and, yes, clamoring for us to move him. No 20-20 hindsight required on that one - every argument made by the advocates in 2012 of dealing Willingham came true because none of it should be all that shocking if you look at his career.

 

I did hear from a Twins insider back in 2012 the Twins had some concern about moving Josh 3 months into a 3 year contract. The risk being future free agents would not sign here because they don't sign 3-5 year deals hoping to be traded in 3 months and move on to another city. I do get it.

 

If you remember the backlash the Marlins received after moving Mark B. and Jose Reyes, both were pretty ticked off.

[tobi0040]

They missed a chance to trade Dozier at peak value. I like his defense and power numbers, but too many 0-4's. Too many strikeouts with RISP. In hindsight, I'd have traded him when he was going good.

 

I also would like to keep Dozier. Even if he is a .250 hitter. This franchise has struggled to field a good 2B for a very long time. If he is a .250 hitter, 20-25 HR a year, great defense, probably only going to cost $30-$40M over 4-5 years, I think he is part of a solution as well.

[Steve_h]

It's bad business to trade Hughes just three months into a three-year deal. Same thing on Morales just two weeks after signing him. If you want your team to be a destination for sought-after free agents, you cannot do that kind of thing. It's different for Willingham, whose deal is just about up after two-and-a-half years here and for Suzuki, whose stay is likely short anyway. Moving Hughes would be inexcusable in the world of agents.

[tobi0040]

It's bad business to trade Hughes just three months into a three-year deal. Same thing on Morales just two weeks after signing him. If you want your team to be a destination for sought-after free agents, you cannot do that kind of thing. It's different for Willingham, whose deal is just about up after two-and-a-half years here and for Suzuki, whose stay is likely short anyway. Moving Hughes would be inexcusable in the world of agents.

 

Especially given that Hughes sought our team and our field in an effort to rejuvenate his career. I think you end up having to give every player a no trade clause if you go down this route once or twice, some agents may not return your calls out of spite.

[Major League Ready]

I did hear from a Twins insider back in 2012 the Twins had some concern about moving Josh 3 months into a 3 year contract. The risk being future free agents would not sign here because they don't sign 3-5 year deals hoping to be traded in 3 months and move on to another city. I do get it.

 

If you remember the backlash the Marlins received after moving Mark B. and Jose Reyes, both were pretty ticked off.

 

I recall that "flipping" a free agent in this way was a concern and I have to agree. That tactic has a price long-term. For this and other reasons, now is not the time to trade Hughes.

 

I could see trading Dozier if the price and timing is right. I am not sure the timing is right just yet but could be if Rosario gets some ML playing time and proves he is capable of taking over at 2B. We have some other 2B options on the horizon as well.

 

What they really need to do is make room for AAA pitchers who deserve a shot at the ML level. Correia has looked pretty good his last couple of starts. Let's hope he remains hot and brings back a decent prospect in July. Trade Burton for a six-pack of Gatorade.

 

What about Plouffe? I think I would let him go if the price was right. Escobar is looking like a much better defender and maybe you give Romero a shot too. His OBP is 404. He might be an adequate place holder until Sano arrives.

[gunnarthor]

That was what posters/fans speculated. The Twins, so far as I know, never even entertained the idea. Here's one tweet from the time:

 

 

 

This was from Jayson Stark at the time:

I think it was a guy on fangraphs, but maybe it was Klaw, but anyhow, someone suggested that the Twins would get, at best, a #4 type pitching prospect for Hammer at the time and named Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta as a possibility.

[DaveW]

This was from Jayson Stark at the time:

The asking price should have been high, you just don't trade a 30 HR guy for beans. Also I am glad the Span asking was "more pricey", give me that Meyer trade 7 days out of 7.

 

I know opinions on TR differ amongst folks, but the one thing I believe we can mostly agree on is he knows how to get solid value in trades.

[gunnarthor]

Coming into this season, I thought the most important things, even over record, was the development of Gibson, Arcia, Hicks, Pinto, Meyer, May, Dozier, Buxton, Sano and seeing how Hughes and Nolasco looked as future pieces. I also hoped a few other prospects stepped up. I figured anyone else that wasn't part of the 2016 future (Hammer, Correa, Pelfrey, Suzuki) or could be over valued and replaceable (Perkins) should be moved.

 

I wouldn't shop him but if someone wants to overpay on Dozier, take it.

[DaveW]

I think it was a guy on fangraphs, but maybe it was Klaw, but anyhow, someone suggested that the Twins would get, at best, a #4 type pitching prospect for Hammer at the time and named Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta as a possibility.

I remember it being posted on MLBTraderumors

[jokin]

I think it was a guy on fangraphs, but maybe it was Klaw, but anyhow, someone suggested that the Twins would get, at best, a #4 type pitching prospect for Hammer at the time and named Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta as a possibility.

 

That was before Gilmartin lost most of his luster- he bombed at AAA to close out 2012.

[TheLeviathan]

The asking price should have been high, you just don't trade a 30 HR guy for beans. Also I am glad the Span asking was "more pricey", give me that Meyer trade 7 days out of 7.

 

I know opinions on TR differ amongst folks, but the one thing I believe we can mostly agree on is he knows how to get solid value in trades.

 

If the price you tell people has them hanging up laughing....that's not a good idea. High expectations are fine. Ridiculous expectations?

 

Well that's ridiculous.

[tobi0040]

What about Plouffe? I think I would let him go if the price was right..

 

That is how I feel about Plouffe as well. Be the guy that puts a for sale sign on the car and drive it around town, but who likes his car and does not actually want to sell it. Given some of the 3B out there, it would seem Plouffe would have value. But he can be an average to above average 3B if Sano doesn't pan out. He can back up 1B, LF, RF, and DH and he crushes lefties. So he could be a valuable piece.

[gunnarthor]

That is how I feel about Plouffe as well. Be the guy that puts a for sale sign on the car and drive it around town, but who likes his car and does not actually want to sell it. Given some of the 3B out there, it would seem Plouffe would have value. But he can be an average to above average 3B if Sano doesn't pan out. He can back up 1B, LF, RF, and DH and he crushes lefties. So he could be a valuable piece.

He's on the DL. He's probably more likely to be moved next year when he's healthy and the Twins have a better idea of their future.

[TheLeviathan]

I think it was a guy on fangraphs, but maybe it was Klaw, but anyhow, someone suggested that the Twins would get, at best, a #4 type pitching prospect for Hammer at the time and named Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta as a possibility.

 

Sorry, but I'm going to have to see something to back that up. Every report from MLB trade rumors and things I can find in searches says the Twins were putting such high demands on trade returns that they basically made him untouchable.