Article: Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.2.0

[Seth Stohs]

People hated how the Twins always drafted control pitchers in the past but now want Freeland or Nola? I don't get it. Are people just looking at the current big league rotation and want a quick fix? This isn't the NBA or NFL.

 

Nola sits 92-93 and hit 95 and 96 when the Twins saw him last week in the tournament. He has a ton of movement on his pitches. Has three pitches that people believe will be above average big league pitches. He can miss bats. He has good control. What's not to like?

 

Like I said, I don't know enough about Gordon to say he wouldn't be a better pick, and I'm assuming Aiken, Rodon, and Jackson will be gone.

[DJL44]

Can someone explain to me why Tyler Kolek is not Colt Griffin?

[Ozziedavisfan]

Can someone explain to me why Tyler Kolek is not Colt Griffin?

A. kolek has been pitching longer. b griffin was sort of sleeper he jumped up the draft board late. c. he was picked by the royals who are wonderful judges of talent.

[Ozziedavisfan]

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 80 | Slider: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 65

The latest in a long line of Texas high school fireballers, Kolek missed much of his junior season at Shepherd High after he broke his left arm in an infield collision while playing first base. He made a dramatic return to the mound in June, hitting 99 mph with his fastball at an Area Code Games tryout and peaking at 97 at the Perfect Game National Showcase. He pitched at 93-96 mph for most of the summer and hit 99 again at the Perfect Game All-America Classic in August.

Kolek has pushed his fastball to 100 mph and above several times this spring, even out of the stretch. He throws both a 12-to-6 curveball and a sharp slider, and though the slider is newer to him, it has more upside. He rarely uses a changeup, but it has the potential to become an average offering. The only real knock on Kolek is that his control and command have yet to catch up to his premium stuff. That still hasn't prevented him from becoming a contender to go No. 1 overall to the nearby Astros. His younger brother Stephen, a right-hander who can run his fastball into the low 90s, could be an early-round pick in 2015. this what MLB says about him. he has one great pitch and two average to above average pitches. and he 18 so his control could improve. and just on a aside I hear constinatly that the twins don't have anyone that strike anyone out. so if he did slide to the twins would anyone really complain. personally I think that the pick is either going to be jackson or gordon. more likely gordon.

[cmb0252]

Nola sits 92-93 and hit 95 and 96 when the Twins saw him last week in the tournament. He has a ton of movement on his pitches. Has three pitches that people believe will be above average big league pitches. He can miss bats. He has good control. What's not to like?

 

Like I said, I don't know enough about Gordon to say he wouldn't be a better pick, and I'm assuming Aiken, Rodon, and Jackson will be gone.

 

I believe he only hit 95/96 in the first inning and after that stat in the 91-94 range.

 

He is 6'1 and throws from an awkward arm slot. While he repeats his delivery well it is something to note. Also, he misses bats because of his control not over powering stuff. That's not what you normally picture top 5 picks to be. Maybe he turns out to be a #2 but I personally see a #3.

 

Here is a questions for you Seth. You have followed the Twins minor league system as much as anyone and have you ever seen the Twins start a player in AA? I ask because after Law saw Nola's last start he suggested a team could draft him, put him in AA, and have him start in April for the big league club in spring.

[gunnarthor]

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 80 | Slider: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 65

The latest in a long line of Texas high school fireballers, Kolek missed much of his junior season at Shepherd High after he broke his left arm in an infield collision while playing first base. He made a dramatic return to the mound in June, hitting 99 mph with his fastball at an Area Code Games tryout and peaking at 97 at the Perfect Game National Showcase. He pitched at 93-96 mph for most of the summer and hit 99 again at the Perfect Game All-America Classic in August.

Kolek has pushed his fastball to 100 mph and above several times this spring, even out of the stretch. He throws both a 12-to-6 curveball and a sharp slider, and though the slider is newer to him, it has more upside. He rarely uses a changeup, but it has the potential to become an average offering. The only real knock on Kolek is that his control and command have yet to catch up to his premium stuff. That still hasn't prevented him from becoming a contender to go No. 1 overall to the nearby Astros. His younger brother Stephen, a right-hander who can run his fastball into the low 90s, could be an early-round pick in 2015. this what MLB says about him. he has one great pitch and two average to above average pitches. and he 18 so his control could improve. and just on a aside I hear constinatly that the twins don't have anyone that strike anyone out. so if he did slide to the twins would anyone really complain. personally I think that the pick is either going to be jackson or gordon. more likely gordon.

 

 

And this is the reason to hope that Kolek falls to us at #5. But if all he ends up with is fastball control, than maybe he's Aroldis Chapman. If he's there at #5, I hope we take him but he is a risky pick.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If you feel like you can't be convinced that Aaron Nola could be a stud, go watch the BA Hangout where Aaron Fitt talks about him.

 

Also, since posting the mock, I talked to someone who is en route to the Cities to put the final board together. I asked how much Nola could help himself with a good NCAA tournament and he basically said, now that's he's throwing 92-94, there's nothing else for him left to do. Basically, people are starting to question if he's "just" a mid-rotation guy. At now that his velo's bumped (even after 100ish innings), there's good reason to believe there's more in the tank.

 

I'll be honest. I wouldn't be shocked if the Astros are starting to strongly considering Nola at 1.

[gunnarthor]

Here is a questions for you Seth. You have followed the Twins minor league system as much as anyone and have you ever seen the Twins start a player in AA? I ask because after Law saw Nola's last start he suggested a team could draft him, put him in AA, and have him start in April for the big league club in spring.

 

Gibson had 7 starts in A+ before being moved up to AA, Garza had 8 and Slowey had 14. All three were promoted in the same year they debuted.

 

Maybe a reliever debuted in AA but my guess is that the Twins, and most teams, give college guys a tune up in A+ first. Appel, Gray, Gausman, Zimmer - all recent college picks - all started at A+ or lower. (Some started in rookie ball).

[twinkiesfan11]

Take BAA.

 

If Gordon is not BAA, then spend the whole 2014 Int'l Pool Money if necessary on the top Int'l SS.

 

Except those don't exactly grow on trees either and from all indications most of the top 2014-2015 int'l talent already have prearranged verbal agreements in place. Out of BA's projected top 10 bonus recipients, only one (Christopher Torres) is listed as projected to remain at shortstop and it sounds like he's already locked in with the Yankees. It seems like even in the int'l market true shortstops who project to hit are very rare.

 

Again, not a reason in and of itself to draft Gordon but further reinforces how valuable shortstops are. Assuming The top three pitchers are gone Gordon gets my vote.

[tobi0040]

I'll be honest. I wouldn't be shocked if the Astros are starting to strongly considering Nola at 1.

 

I would love for Nola, or Gordon for that matter to go top 4.

[twinsfanstreif]

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 80 | Slider: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 65

The latest in a long line of Texas high school fireballers, Kolek missed much of his junior season at Shepherd High after he broke his left arm in an infield collision while playing first base. He made a dramatic return to the mound in June, hitting 99 mph with his fastball at an Area Code Games tryout and peaking at 97 at the Perfect Game National Showcase. He pitched at 93-96 mph for most of the summer and hit 99 again at the Perfect Game All-America Classic in August.

Kolek has pushed his fastball to 100 mph and above several times this spring, even out of the stretch. He throws both a 12-to-6 curveball and a sharp slider, and though the slider is newer to him, it has more upside. He rarely uses a changeup, but it has the potential to become an average offering. The only real knock on Kolek is that his control and command have yet to catch up to his premium stuff. That still hasn't prevented him from becoming a contender to go No. 1 overall to the nearby Astros. His younger brother Stephen, a right-hander who can run his fastball into the low 90s, could be an early-round pick in 2015. this what MLB says about him. he has one great pitch and two average to above average pitches. and he 18 so his control could improve. and just on a aside I hear constinatly that the twins don't have anyone that strike anyone out. so if he did slide to the twins would anyone really complain. personally I think that the pick is either going to be jackson or gordon. more likely gordon.

 

I saw this scouting report too from MLB.com and I find it a bit fishy. If those are future grades then sure I could see that but as a current grade there's no way. His Slider and curve are very raw offering in which he has very little feel and control for. Current ratings for those pitches should be more like 50-55 tops, currently he does not have 3 plus offerings it's more like 1. 80 rating for FB is solely focused on velocity and not on movement, the velocity is impressive but 100+ has been hitable in the past with no movement! Kolek has some but it gets flat at times, 80 grade would mean it's perfect, I would knock it down a few notches to 70-75 for that reason. The change grade is based on speculation because I'm not sure he has one yet, I haven't seen any videos in which he throws one. Kolek has the highest ceiling of any prospect in this class due to his size, mechanics, and velocity but he has quite a bit of work to do, he could end up being Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson, or he could be Joel Zumaya.

[twinsfanstreif]

If you feel like you can't be convinced that Aaron Nola could be a stud, go watch the BA Hangout where Aaron Fitt talks about him.

 

Also, since posting the mock, I talked to someone who is en route to the Cities to put the final board together. I asked how much Nola could help himself with a good NCAA tournament and he basically said, now that's he's throwing 92-94, there's nothing else for him left to do. Basically, people are starting to question if he's "just" a mid-rotation guy. At now that his velo's bumped (even after 100ish innings), there's good reason to believe there's more in the tank.

 

I'll be honest. I wouldn't be shocked if the Astros are starting to strongly considering Nola at 1.

 

I believe this too, it reminds me so much of the Andrew Heaney situation, he was the most dominate pitcher in college that year but his velocity was in the 90-93 range and many said he had no projection left (I liked him but We definitely made the right choice with Buxton). In the minors he bumped up to 94-96 and he's the most dominate lefty in the minors with 3-4 plus offerings. Nola could do the same, I'm starting to believe that with a great weekend he could get a huge bump (I'm torn on this, I'm on the Nola bandwagon but I'm also a University of Houston grad so I'm really hoping he doesn't face us)

[Macneil4025]

I'm totally on the Aaron Nola Bandwagon!! He pitches in the best college conference and dominates, that should say everything!! Look at his production compared to Carlos Rondon, Nola is a better pitcher!! Just think Brad Radke, and smile!!

[Ozziedavisfan]

You would be unhappy with zumaya in his prime? think more Matt Andreson.all I'm saying is if he has work to do let him do that work for the twins if he is available.

[twinsfanstreif]

You would be unhappy with zumaya in his prime? think more Matt Andreson.all I'm saying is if he has work to do let him do that work for the twins if he is available.

 

I would totally be unhappy with Zumaya in his prime, first he was a reliever, we should get a starter with #5, secondly Zumaya was very hitable even with his 100+ FB, he had no movement and mlb hitters could pick it up. Zumaya was a set up guy who was always injured, that would be an awful pick

[cmathewson]

Kolek could be the next Roger Clemens. I would love it if he slipped through.

[nicksaviking]

I'm totally on the Aaron Nola Bandwagon!! He pitches in the best college conference and dominates, that should say everything!! Look at his production compared to Carlos Rondon, Nola is a better pitcher!! Just think Brad Radke, and smile!!

 

I do think of Brad Radke and smile. I don't think of aiming for a Brad Radke at #5 overall and smile.

 

It's like aiming for another division title knowing it has next to no chance of turing into a World Series title.

[Dantes929]

"It's like aiming for another division title knowing it has next to no chance of turing into a World Series title" All division titles have a fair chance at turning into a WS title. Just because it didn't turn that way for the Twins the assumption is that it couldn't have. I agree that Radke shouldn't be the goal. Santana or Liriano or Verlander should be the goal but if you shoot for Verlander and he ends up producing like Radke that is ok since there are very few Verlanders out there and Radke wasn't bad.

[gunnarthor]

" Santana or Liriano or Verlander should be the goal but if you shoot for Verlander and he ends up producing like Radke that is ok since there are very few Verlanders out there and Radke wasn't bad.

 

Yeah, Radke wasn't bad. Since 1972, among AL pitchers, Radke is 25th in fWAR.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Either way, the Twins haven't been down to see Nola in a month but are all over most of the other top projected guys. I'm feeling pretty good that he's off the board.

I'm gonna look into lack of scouting claim. If that true, very interesting.

 

I believe he's far from "off their board".

[cmb0252]

Law was at the last Nola performance and he noted in his write up the white Sox, cubs, marlins, and Twins were well represented. He also came back with a different point of view this fof Nola than Aaron Fitt. Here is what Law said:

 

"I don't see No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside with Nola -- what you see here is what you'll get. But I also think you could sign him, run him right out to Double-A and get him on your major league roster by next April. "

 

Interesting two experts saw the same performance and have such different views of Nola.

[Thrylos]

We need a SS more than we need a middle of the rotation guy (Nola). If we don't select Gordon, where will our future SS come from? Santana and Gordon have equal chances of becoming a competent major league SS and I predict Gordon will be the better of the two.

 

I am not sure about the last sentence, but I think the answer to your question is Polanco, Vielma or Escobar in decreasing probability order.

 

Gordon has Levi Michael written all over him for some reason.

[amjgt]

What is Gordon's upside?

 

Starting ML Shortstop with an OK hit tool, not much power, and not as much speed as his brother?

 

I'm sure I'm selling him short, but someone tell me where.

[Thrylos]

I liked last week's mock much better

 

Jackson is the gem of this draft...

[amjgt]

If Nola going above us means we get Jackson, then I am all for it, but I've got a seat booked on the Nola bandwagon.

[DocBauer]

Soooo torn as to my preference.

 

Hate to state the obvious but Aiken and Rodon hands down, either one. If my arm were twisted, I'd go with Rodon because of his maturity and ability to rise quicker. But, of course, there is probably only something like a 5% chance of either of them sliding to us.

 

I liked Kolek initially, early in the season. But I have lessened my opinion on him as the season has ground down, and I've read more reports on him. A mid to high 90's FB that can hit a 100 is very intriguing to state the obvious. But a lack of control and questions surrounding all of his secondary pitches concerns me. I'm afraid he could end up as a tease. No question the potential is outstanding, and he as a good, large frame that would seem to indicate the velocity is real and can be maintained. But there is a litany of really hard throwers who remain just that over the course of years of baseball prospects. And am I the only one who worries about an 18 y.o. arm already throwing that hard consistently.

 

Jackson, if he's really the hitting prospect he's reported to be, especially if he sticks at C is a great option. No offense to Pinto, but another top offensive C in the system, at least a few years away, is not only not a bad thing, but it's one of those premium positions where it's hard to find a real quality 2-way player. Again, I just don't think there is much of a chance of him lasting to pick 5.

 

I don't think you gamble at #5 on Hoffman and a complete recovery. But it is tempting. Freeland is very tempting with his stuff and being LH. But there are some questions about delivery and follow through. I believe Nola is my choice if we go pitcher. He's been a top and clutch performer in a major conference on major stages his whole career. He's gotten better each year. Not only that, but it appears he's even getting better as THIS season has gone along.

 

If Jackson is gone as expected, that leaves Gordon and Turner as the top position players available. Gordon is reported to be a potentially excellent defensive player. That's important. However, I'm not thrilled by the scouting grades I'm seeing. Perhaps I'm being naive, but for the 5th pick in the draft, do you make the move on a young man who seems to grade 60-65 in his categories? Think about the grades on Buxton and Sano for instance, even though Sano was an amateur signing and not an actual draft choice. Does Gordon at 5, even projectable, compare?

 

Two months ago, Turner was figured to be a top 3 pick who all Twins fans were hoping and praying could somehow slip to 5. A very good season, then a great season, but followed by a good season this year has had him sliding. He rates, or has rated, as a plus hitter and OB performer with plus-plus speed and SB ability.

If he can be a good, solid defensive SS, he has real top of the order potential. At worse, a nightmare at the bottom of the order to opposing teams.

 

All this being said, my choices are Nola if we go pitcher, Turner if we go position player. These are real talents, with projectable ability, with college age and experience on big stages in quality leagues.

[Kwak]

IIRC, when Nolan Ryan was first promoted to the Mets (age 19 I think!!), he was considered: raw, wild, only has a fastball, and in general dismissed. I would be more afraid of missing out on the next Nolan Ryan than on the next Brad Radke.

[cmb0252]

What is Gordon's upside?

 

Starting ML Shortstop with an OK hit tool, not much power, and not as much speed as his brother?

 

I'm sure I'm selling him short, but someone tell me where.

 

Upside? A true SS prospect with All star/top 5 SS. Maybe people are still stuck on the early season ranks but he is in almost all top 5s. His bat has definitely progressed this year.

[markos]

What is Gordon's upside?

 

Starting ML Shortstop with an OK hit tool, not much power, and not as much speed as his brother?

 

I'm sure I'm selling him short, but someone tell me where.

 

I have seen some scouts give him a future power grade of 55 to go with 50 hit. That would project him hitting .260-.280 with 15-20 HRs and lots of doubles. If he walks enough, his OPS is between .750 and .800. Combined with above-average defense at SS, and he is a 4-6 Win player. If all that pans out, then I think his upside is Jimmy Rollins with a little less speed, which is a pretty dang good player. Granted there are a lot of hopes and dreams involved with that projection, but then again every HS kid is wrapped in hopes and dreams right now.

[SDTwinsFan]

I think there are a ton of studs in this draft. The anticipation is killing me. I'll be happy with any of the consensus top 5, with maybe a little extra excitement on Jackson, and extra worry with Kolek. Nola seems pretty legit to me, though, as he appears to have been labled a "soft-tosser/control-artist" prematurely. Touki (spelling?) would also be cool--I saw someone post earlier about how top-rated curveballs in pitchers tend to do the best with draft prospects.

Anyway, in a week, we will all be discussing this in a different way. Excited.