Pirates Prospects: Worley Back on Track

[Brock Beauchamp]

Catcher, AJ. 1b, Morneau, DH Ortiz, OF Cuddy, Hunter. Four players on the field, a quite a few bullpen arms. Yup, almost a team.

 

And out of those guys, you can only point the finger at the Twins screwing up once (though it was a pretty epic screw-up). Hunter left entirely for monetary concerns. It was Mauer/Morneau or Hunter/Santana. Cuddyer was a bad bet to keep playing well, particularly at the price the Rockies paid for him. Pierzynski... Well, that one worked out pretty well for the Twins.

 

That leaves Ortiz. A massive blunder by any reckoning but still, just one blunder.

[gunnarthor]

I gave quantitative facts, you are giving opinions, like all the excuses I've heard about keeping Anderson (and Gardenhire.) Are there any numbers to support Anderson at this point?

 

I am all ears.

 

You didn't give facts, you used certain stats out of context to reach a predetermined conclusion. Huge difference.

[gunnarthor]

That leaves Ortiz. A massive blunder by any reckoning but still, just one blunder.

 

And one that was also linked to PEDs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And one that was also linked to PEDs.

 

Eh, he's still tearing the cover off the ball at age 38. While Ortiz may have benefited from PEDs, I think it's hard to say his success was borne out of PED use.

[blindeke]

Eh, he's still tearing the cover off the ball at age 38. While Ortiz may have benefited from PEDs, I think it's hard to say his success was borne out of PED use.

 

I'm not saying Ortiz uses PEDs and even if he did, I wouldn't care very much. But one of the things PEDs are good at, apparently, is helping players recover faster.

[gunnarthor]

Eh, he's still tearing the cover off the ball at age 38. While Ortiz may have benefited from PEDs, I think it's hard to say his success was borne out of PED use.

 

One of the great side effects of PED use was to allow careers to last longer than normal aging patterns suggested. But let's not let this thread get way off track

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I would be pleased to know what former Twins All Star pitcher, (not Lohse who was never an all star or an award recipient) would you want to be staring given their performance so far this year.

If you meant any Twin All Star I would ask

Are any of the former Twins who were all stars as Twins at 2b, 3b, or ss still alive much less playing baseball? Catcher, AJ. 1b, Morneau, DH Ortiz, OF Cuddy, Hunter. Four players on the field, a quite a few bullpen arms. Yup, almost a team.

 

Well you left out Hardy. Shortstop is a pretty important position. If they traded him mainly because he was still hurt (like I've read here) then they should have just waited for him to get healthy.

 

I don't care about Worley but I will try to get the thread back on track.

 

I got into this fight once before. Will try not to now. So after that prior episode, I set up a little study to look at former pitchers for all MLB teams, to compare teams of ex-pitchers against each other. It wasn't exactly like Thrylos's but yeah it was a lot of darn work. Life intervened and I set it aside.

 

(…For example, if the Twins staff ERA in 2013 was 4.55 (second to last) and OPS against was .770 (also second to last) then former pitchers let go by the Twins and pitching elsewhere in the year 2013 should together finish with about those same numbers, and if they did, that would make Twins ex-pitchers about middle of the pack, and not really reflect poorly or favorably on Twins pitching. However, if Twins pitchers together pitched better than those numbers, that would work against the Twins. I got about halfway through it and saw that the Twins were at best heading towards a bottom quartile finish (but not dead last!) and stopped. It was skewed by high performing free agent guys like Greinke, who had a great year with the Dodgers in 2013 and counted as an ex-Angel and ex-Brewer last year, hurting the Angels and Brewers for this study. The Angels finished worse than the Twins and I think they were last for the teams I got through. Hey Mike Scioscia's team! Another example is Worley, who pitched so poorly for the Twins in 2013 that it reflected well on the Phillies for moving him. The study was also skewed by a couple teams who had very few pitchers to analyze. Interestingly the only ex-San Francisco Giant starting pitcher still active in MLB is Kevin Correia, who pitched for them too long ago to count for what I was looking at… also Kyle Lohse, one of the favorite names bandied about here, pitched too long ago to be considered an ex-Twin for what I was doing and his 2012 season didn't count against any of his former teams.)

 

Anyway, if anyone wants to demonstrate with data that the Twins have actually done very well developing pitchers and are making good decisions about which pitchers to invest in and which to let go of, be my guest.

[tobi0040]

That is a long list. Years after a pitcher leaves the Twins, he gets better. That is on Anderson?

A pitcher who was a starter for the Twins and is relugated to the bullpen, statistically there is an improvement but it is a different and far less valuable role. The issue is that Anderson has not developed starters. That a guy goes on to be a serviceable mop up person is really no big deal.

Redman was exchanged for the closer they thought they needed. You have to give up something to get something. Tha the Twins traded him away counts against Anderson. Do you need a list of pitchers that it took 2 years of service tim before they got better?

 

There are factors that go into a player improving including age related devlopment. Is the player development because they learn the more years they are in the league, park factors, or whatever. No, the sole factor is the pitching coach. Yup Show me someone the Twins released or did not resign for reasons other than money that went from mediocre Twin to stud performance in the next season.

 

 

I am the one that started this line of thought, better since leaving, etc. I want to point out a few things.

 

First, I never bashed Rick Anderson. I simply said I don't get the ironclad reputation he has. I never said he is not an average pitching coach or called for him to be fired.

 

Before I put out the list, and in at least one post since then, I specifically said not everyone on this list is Andersons fault. However, I said that looking at the success of pitchers who have left the organization versus their results here should at least be one data point. Thrylos and myself have requested a list of Twins that have left and not had the same success they had here. This list has not been forthcoming.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thrylos and myself have requested a list of Twins that have left and not had the same success they had here. This list has not been forthcoming.

 

Off the top of my head:

 

Carlos Silva

Eric Milton

Eddie Guardado

Juan Rincon

Scott Baker (still scratching my head over why he's not employed)

[ericchri]

Scott Baker (still scratching my head over why he's not employed)

 

He just got called up by Texas after pitching for the AAA team this season.

[gunnarthor]

Thrylos and myself have requested a list of Twins that have left and not had the same success they had here. This list has not been forthcoming.

 

Lists have been posted several times: Silva, Santana, Milton, Reyes, Nathan, Guerrier, Hawkins, Everyday Eddie, Romero, Baker, Rincon, Slowey, Mays. And that doesn't get into the number of guys who were here for 20 innings etc that seems to dominate the other lists.

[tobi0040]

Off the top of my head:

 

Carlos Silva

Eric Milton

Eddie Guardado

Juan Rincon

Scott Baker (still scratching my head over why he's not employed)

 

Since about four people said I was cherry picking my list or each could be explained as one off's:

 

Rincon's last two years here, 5.13 and 6.11 ERA. Not exactly a success story under Rick and fell off without his guidance.

 

Silva had a 4.42 ERA here. 5.94 and 4.19 his last two years. His ERA with the Cubs was 4.22 and he also had some injury concerns. Sinker ball, comes and goes.

 

Baker - Really? He had TJ 24 months ago and my understanding is his velocity has not come back. Darn pitching coach with the Cubs.

 

Milton - His ERA here was 4.76. He had the same ERA (not good) his first year after he left and then was consistently hurt.

[gunnarthor]

He just got called up by Texas after pitching for the AAA team this season.

 

Actually, he was up last week and pitched 5 innings out of the bullpen in a blowout loss.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=bakersc02&t=p&year=2014

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Lists have been posted several times: Silva, Santana, Milton, Reyes, Nathan, Guerrier, Hawkins, Everyday Eddie, Romero, Baker, Rincon, Slowey, Mays. And that doesn't get into the number of guys who were here for 20 innings etc that seems to dominate the other lists.

 

I think lists lists are a secondary issue. Just the idea that this team has gone on a multi-year skid, including the worst pitching in the majors, and has done absolutely nothing about it, gets people (me included) a little concerned.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Since about four people said I was cherry picking my list or each could be explained as one off's:

 

Rincon's last two years here, 5.13 and 6.11 ERA. Not exactly a success story under Rick and fell off without his guidance.

 

Silva had a 4.42 ERA here. 5.94 and 4.19 his last two years. His ERA with the Cubs was 4.22 and he also had some injury concerns. Sinker ball, comes and goes.

 

Baker - Really? He had TJ 24 months ago and my understanding is his velocity has not come back. Darn pitching coach with the Cubs.

 

Milton - His ERA here was 4.76. He had the same ERA (not good) his first year after he left and then was consistently hurt.

 

Fair enough, those were just off the top of my head.

 

But you can't list Silva's ERA with the Cubs and skip the two absolutely horrific years he had with Seattle after leaving the Twins.

 

And Milton's ERA+ was siginificantly better with the Twins than it was the Phillies.

 

ERA is a flawed stat that punishes AL pitching while rewarding NL pitching. I find it aggravatingly convenient that it continues to be used in this thread to support the anti-Anderson arguments (which I'm not laying at your feet, just pointing out how intentionally biased it makes the argument feel).

 

If you're trying to make an objective argument, a league-adjusted metric is a necessity lest you're cherry-picking, intentional or not.

[PseudoSABR]

Off the top of my head:

 

Carlos Silva

Eric Milton

Eddie Guardado

Juan Rincon

Scott Baker (still scratching my head over why he's not employed)

Pavano

Guerrier

Slowey

Neshek

Mijares

[Riverbrian]

I have no idea if Rick Anderson is a good pitching coach or not. If I had access to his bullpen sessions and witnessed him teaching something wrong... I'd assume he wasn't very good... Absent of that kind of access... I can't pass judgement.

 

Ultimately... If Anderson isn't good... Gardy should be aware and should recommend finding someone else... and if Gardy isn't aware... The front office should be aware that Gardy isn't aware and should find a different manager.

 

If the Front office isn't aware... Then the Ownership should be aware that the front office isn't aware and they should find different people.

 

I tend not to blame the pitching coach... I blame the guy who hired and decided to keep him.

 

So... I assume since they have kept him... There is no problem at all.

[tobi0040]

Pavano

Guerrier

Slowey

Neshek

Mijares

 

We absolutely gave up on Neshek and he has been lights out since he left. Slowey's ERA was better with the Marlins, ERA+ slightly better with Twins.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And regardless of any data or statistics or ex-Twins, I believe the free agent signings of Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, the discussions on signing Correia to an extension, not to mention failed attempts to sign Garza and who knows who else, are all indications that the Twins simply are not in the business of developing their own pitching anymore. No that's not all on Anderson or Gardenhire but I would assume they'd take a little of the responsibility instead of letting Ryan take it all.

[SweetOne69]

Here are my 2 issues with Anderson and they are both subjective.

 

First he seems to do better with other teams cast-offs (reclamation projects) than with pitchers that come up through the system. MLB ready pitchers that come into the system seem to have 2-3 good seasons before they begin to falter. And Home grown pitchers never seem to improve once the get to the bigs and start working with Anderson directly.

 

The 2nd issue is that the entire staff seems to have an epic collapse all at the same time for a 2-4 week stretch every season. This usually happens around June. I know that every pitcher has their off days when nothing works right, but when the entire pitching staff goes through the same funk for an extended period every year that has to be on the coach.

[cmathewson]

Worley was worse than terrible...he sucked. One article does not mean he is back...he still sucks and likely will not be back in the bigs. Liriano always had the stuff but dont tell me his faults were because of rick anderson.

 

One more thing on worley...dude is a crybaby. He never took responsibility in minnesota even blaming the wind at one point. Sounds like he is the same guy saying he never got a chance...newsflash "vanimal," if you would have showed any signs of being even a AAAA guy we would have kept you. More like excuse-imal or 87downthepipeimal

 

This. I don't care how he does. He was worse than horrible. His release had nothing to do with signing Pelfrey or retaining Correia. He was DFAd and no one claimed him. He cleared waivers and was assigned to Rochester. He couldn't make the Rochester rotation or its bullpen. Only then was he released. He had every opportunity to make it here. He just sucked. Good Riddance Geranimal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

We absolutely gave up on Neshek and he has been lights out since he left.

 

Not exactly. He was pretty awful for the Padres for one season and then he moved to Oakland and returned to being lights out.

 

Same result, missing an important component in the timeline.

[tobi0040]

Not exactly. He was pretty awful for the Padres for one season and then he moved to Oakland and returned to being lights out.

 

Same result, missing an important component in the timeline.

 

You mean the 24 IP and 4.01 ERA with the Padres is both meaningful and awful? His last two years here his ERA was 4.73 and 5.00.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You mean the 24 IP and 4.01 ERA with the Padres is both meaningful and awful?

 

He pitched 24.2 bad innings for the Padres, which you're discounting.

 

The following season he pitched 19.2 good innings for the A's, which you're counting.

 

In his second season with the A's, he posted a 112 ERA+ in 40.1 innings. Hardly earth-shattering.

[tobi0040]

He pitched 24.2 bad innings for the Padres, which you're discounting.

 

The following season he pitched 19.2 good innings for the A's, which you're counting.

 

In his second season with the A's, he posted a 112 ERA+ in 40.1 innings. Hardly earth-shattering.

 

His ERA in every one of the three years since leaving was lower than his ERA in the last two years here. He was cited as a guy who had success here and struggled elsewhere, which is simply not the case. He was lights out here for a few years before getting hurt and we gave up on him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

His last two years here his ERA was 4.73 and 5.00.

 

He was injured and pitched a combined 22 innings between two seasons.

 

I'm not the one who brought up Neshek. You're the one who said he was lights out, yet he has pitched under 100 innings since leaving the team in 2010.

[gunnarthor]

We absolutely gave up on Neshek and he has been lights out since he left. Slowey's ERA was better with the Marlins, ERA+ slightly better with Twins.

 

And those are pretty good reasons that rate stats can give false information when using them out of context. Slowey was a bad pitcher for us and a worse one in Miami - he's managed .3 WAR and been moved to the pen. Frankly, that the Twins got any value out of him and Blackburn should be considered a positive on them, in my opinion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

His ERA in every one of the three years since leaving was lower than his ERA in the last two years here.

 

Sure. The years he was injured and pitched 13.1 and 9.0 innings, respectively.

 

Again, you're using selective stats to prove a point you want to make instead of using stats to form an opinion.

 

Personally, I'm neutral on Neshek and said so earlier in the thread. I hated to see him go but I'm certainly not mourning his loss now, as he bounced around and had large periods of ineffective play after leaving (hence an average of under 25 IP per year since he left the Twins).

 

He has barely pitched 100 innings in the past six years combined.

[gunnarthor]

He was injured and pitched a combined 22 innings between two seasons.

 

Actually, it was 22 innings over three seasons - he missed all of 09.

[tobi0040]

Actually, it was 22 innings over three seasons - he missed all of 09.

 

He was brought up by SABR as a guy who had better numbers with us. The numbers don't prove that. The fact is we thought he was done after his injury in 2009 and we cut him.