Pirates Prospects: Worley Back on Track

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here's a fun stat:

 

In Neshek's first two seasons with the Twins, he pitched 107.1 innings combined.

 

In the seven seasons since that point, he has pitched 124.1 innings combined.

[diehardtwinsfan]

One thing that comes to mind in a lot of these discussions is that extenuating circumstances regarding people's departure is often left out. No one doubted Ortiz's ability to hit. His problem was that he was expensive and often injured. He was DFAd, no one claimed him, and signed a minor league deal with the RedSox. Neshek and Balfour were similar candidates as well. They were quite good prior to their injuries. In all of these cases, it's hard to credit or blame anyone. Baseball matters, not talent or coaching, got in the way of these guys staying in MN.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He was brought up by SABR as a guy who had better numbers with us. The numbers don't prove that. The fact is we thought he was done after his injury in 2009 and we cut him.

 

Actually, they cut him in 2010 after his fastball had dropped from 90.7 in his rookie season to 85.6 after the injury.

 

He didn't get back up to 89 mph until 2012 with the Athletics.

[jokin]

And those are pretty good reasons that rate stats can give false information when using them out of context. Slowey was a bad pitcher for us and a worse one in Miami - he's managed .3 WAR and been moved to the pen. Frankly, that the Twins got any value out of him and Blackburn should be considered a positive on them, in my opinion.

 

This is simply not true. From 2008-10 when he was fully healthy, he was a perfectly serviceable back-end starter for the Twins- 4.02 FIP with 6.9 fWAR- which ranked 3rd among Twins pitchers in that time frame. And then the injuries made him a bad pitcher in 2011 and 2012.

 

As far as Miami goes, Slowey was moved to the pen last season because the Marlins were chock full of good young pitching prospects that are simply better options than Slowey- this year their team SP FIP ranks 5th in the NL @ 3.56, while they're 4th in fWAR at 3.0. As far as Slowey goes w/ Miami, he had a 3.81 FIP in 2013 with a .8 fWAR and .6 bWAR, and this year he has a 3.63 FIP with a .1 fWAR. Slowey's numbers in 2013 would have had him right around the Twins SP with the best numbers, Samuel Deduno, and definitely a bit better than the Twins 2013 "Ace", Kevin Correia.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As far as Slowey goes w/ Miami, he had a 3.81 FIP in 2013 with a .8 fWAR and .6 bWAR, and this year he has a 3.63 FIP with a .1 fWAR. Slowey's numbers in 2013 would have had him right around the Twins SP with the best numbers, Samuel Deduno, and definitely a bit better than the Twins 2013 "Ace", Kevin Correia.

 

A testament to just how awful the rotation was last season. Ugh.

[tobi0040]

Actually, they cut him in 2010 after his fastball had dropped from 90.7 in his rookie season to 85.6 after the injury.

 

He didn't get back up to 89 mph until 2012 with the Athletics.

 

The word actually implies you are disagreeing with me. The surgery was in November of 2008 and he missed all of 2009, then we cut him in 2010 after we saw his low velocity and concluded the injury made him something else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The word actually implies you are disagreeing with me. The surgery was in November of 2008 and he missed all of 2009, then we cut him in 2010 after we saw his low velocity and concluded the injury made him something else.

 

Nope, just misread your post. My mistake. I read it as "they cut him in 2009", which you didn't say.

[jokin]

One thing that comes to mind in a lot of these discussions is that extenuating circumstances regarding people's departure is often left out.

 

No one doubted Ortiz's ability to hit.

His problem was that he was expensive and often injured. He was DFAd, no one claimed him, and signed a minor league deal with the RedSox. Neshek and Balfour were similar candidates as well. They were quite good prior to their injuries. In all of these cases, it's hard to credit or blame anyone. Baseball matters, not talent or coaching, got in the way of these guys staying in MN.

 

Ortiz signed a major league contract with the Red Sox, and Pedro Martinez highly recommended him to Theo Epstein.

 

Ryan’s decision was to release Ortiz rather than let him go before a salary arbitration hearing. At the behest of no less an authority than Pedro Martinez, Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein signed Ortiz on Jan. 22, 2003.Pedro knew Ortiz from their shared roots in the Dominican. But there was another factor – in an Aug. 16, 2002, game at Minnesota, Ortiz jacked one of his patented rising line drives to right field for a home run off Martinez, the Red Sox super-ace who was on his way to a 20-4 season.

Pedro did not forget that one.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2013/11/david_ortiz_unwanted_by_minnes.html

 

It's been rehashed many times, but even Terry Ryan admits it was the worst move he ever made. And based on the evidence of Big Papi's time here, there obviously was great doubt about "(his) ability to hit." Even though his defense was a liability that discouraged TK from playing him- (and he did have Mientkiewiscz at 1st- kind-of ironic that DougieFresh also ended up with the Red Sox 1.5 years later.) He also didn't see fit to give him DH time, in favor of Cordova, Coomer, Koskie, and of course, Matt LeCroy, not real discernment of what they actually had in Ortiz.

 

Believe it or not, there was a time when David Ortiz couldn’t find a spot in the starting lineup. No room for him at first base. No room for him as a designated hitter...Now internationally known as the face and heart of the world champion Boston Red Sox

.

 

And all because TR didn't want to go to arbitration to potentially give Ortiz a raise from $950,000 to $1.25M. It's arguable that it cost the Twins at least 3 decent shots at AL Pennants.

[jokin]

A testament to just how awful the rotation was last season. Ugh.

 

Yup. It was almost criminal that the new normal acceptable of Twins FO expectations for "Ace" level in 2013 was below League Average. They finally woke up this year, but 2 years after it was pretty obvious to everyone else- running Slowey out, no matter his level of priggishness at the time, was unwise and unnecessary.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Ortiz signed a major league contract with the Red Sox, and Pedro Martinez highly recommended him to Theo Epstein.

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2013/11/david_ortiz_unwanted_by_minnes.html

 

It's been rehashed many times, but even Terry Ryan admits it was the worst move he ever made. And based on the evidence of Big Papi's time here, there obviously was great doubt about "(his) ability to hit." Even though his defense was a liability that discouraged TK from playing him- (and he did have Mientkiewiscz at 1st- kind-of ironic that DougieFresh also ended up with the Red Sox 1.5 years later.) He also didn't see fit to give him DH time, in favor of Cordova, Coomer, Koskie, and of course, Matt LeCroy, not real discernment of what they actually had in Ortiz.

 

 

 

And all because TR didn't want to go to arbitration to potentially give Ortiz a raise from $950,000 to $1.25M. It's arguable that it cost the Twins at least 3 decent shots at AL Pennants.

 

I could be wrong on the major league contract vs. minor league contract thing, but TR attempted and failed to trade Ortiz for a bag of balls at the winter meetings that year, and no one claimed him when he went on waivers... Everyone else thought he was a bad investment to take to arbitration too, which is why he cleared waivers.

 

It was a mistake, yes... but my point is that it tends to be a bit revisionist when no one recognizes that many of these mistakes had extenuating baseball circumstances that forced the decisions, not "player X had bad coaching and flourished under a different coach" or the converse.

[jokin]

I could be wrong on the major league contract vs. minor league contract thing, but TR attempted and failed to trade Ortiz for a bag of balls at the winter meetings that year, and no one claimed him when he went on waivers... Everyone else thought he was a bad investment to take to arbitration too, which is why he cleared waivers.

 

It was a mistake, yes... but my point is that it tends to be a bit revisionist when no one recognizes that many of these mistakes had extenuating baseball circumstances that forced the decisions, not "player X had bad coaching and flourished under a different coach" or the converse.

 

Interesting story behind the story in Boston:

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20130601-ortiz-career-with-sox-was-almost-short-lived.ece

 

Theo Epstein obviously was pretty sure what he had in Ortiz after a couple months and proved it by his actions, the Twins, obviously, never really did (I wonder if Papi dealt with Ryan for playing time like he did with Epstein, and hence the heave-ho? He hasn't exactly had a lot of nice things to say about the Twins since his departure, and he sure seems extra locked in when he plays the Twins):

 

Big Papi almost never became Big Papi.Ten years ago this week, David Ortiz was just another castoff from another team languishing on the Red Sox bench. Kevin Millar was getting most of the playing time at first base. Shea Hillenbrand was playing every day either at third or first base. Ortiz was splitting time at designated hitter with Jeremy Giambi and several others — meaning he wasn’t playing much.

Ortiz wasn’t happy about it. By the end of May, he was at the end of his rope. He instructed agent Fern Cuza to meet with then-Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein and ask the team to give him his release.

“I called Fern,” Ortiz said, recounting the story last week, “and I told him to be here to talk to the GM to let me go.”

What would have happened then?

“I would have gone somewhere else and kicked ass,” he said with a grin.

But Epstein had other plans. He told Cuza — and, by extension, Ortiz — that he had a move or two up his sleeve. He was going to get Ortiz the playing time he craved, the playing time he needed if he was going to play up to his considerable potential.

And on May 29, 2003 — 10 years ago this week — Epstein traded Shea Hillenbrand to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Byung-Hyun Kim (and the resit is history.)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Interesting story behind the story in Boston:

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20130601-ortiz-career-with-sox-was-almost-short-lived.ece

 

Theo Epstein obviously was pretty sure what he had in Ortiz after a couple months and proved it by his actions, the Twins, obviously, never really did (I wonder if Papi dealt with Ryan for playing time like he did with Epstein, and hence the heave-ho? He hasn't exactly had a lot of nice things to say about the Twins since his departure, and he sure seems extra locked in when he plays the Twins):

 

Maybe Francona didn't think much of Ortiz or didn't realize what he had, and Epstein forced Francona's hand?

 

I've never personally begrudged Ryan for releasing Ortiz, since he's owned up to it and Mientkiewicz was such a great glove and we had Morneau coming up. It is ironic though that Ortiz was such a Yankee killer in the postseason..

[golfboy1]

We absolutely gave up on Neshek and he has been lights out since he left. Slowey's ERA was better with the Marlins, ERA+ slightly better with Twins.

 

 

Are you really using Pat Neshek as an example of Andersons failure's? For starters, Neshek was dominating for the first two years he pitched for the Twins. Does Anderson get any credit for that or was it just luck? Next, Neshek blows out his arm & comes back with way less stuff than before. Yes, the Twins "gave up" on him but how long & how many injured pitchers can they keep on their roster until they "maybe" bounce back?

 

As far as Neshek being "lights out" the last few years, he has pitched very few innings & he has a severe R/L split. He is basically a RH Loogy. Answer me this. If he was so lights out with Oakland, how come they didn't even put him on their playoff roster last year & then took him off their 40 man roster?

 

Even in his two years in Oakland when he had decent stats LH batters pounded him. They had an OPS of 1.108 in 2012 & .922 in 2013. He had to be used in very special situations to have success. We are talking about a guy who made 69 appearances & pitched a total 0f 60 innings in two years.

[Guest USAFChief]

I could be wrong on the major league contract vs. minor league contract thing, but TR attempted and failed to trade Ortiz for a bag of balls at the winter meetings that year, and no one claimed him when he went on waivers... Everyone else thought he was a bad investment to take to arbitration too, which is why he cleared waivers.

 

It was a mistake, yes... but my point is that it tends to be a bit revisionist when no one recognizes that many of these mistakes had extenuating baseball circumstances that forced the decisions, not "player X had bad coaching and flourished under a different coach" or the converse.

I'm not sure it's fair to call a desire to pay LeCroy a few less dollars than Ortiz a "baseball decision."

[The Wise One]

I'm not sure it's fair to call a desire to pay LeCroy a few less dollars than Ortiz a "baseball decision."

What does that have to do with no clubs claiming Ortiz when they had the chance?

[The Wise One]

Here are my 2 issues with Anderson and they are both subjective.

 

First he seems to do better with other teams cast-offs (reclamation projects) than with pitchers that come up through the system. MLB ready pitchers that come into the system seem to have 2-3 good seasons before they begin to falter. And Home grown pitchers never seem to improve once the get to the bigs and start working with Anderson directly.

 

The 2nd issue is that the entire staff seems to have an epic collapse all at the same time for a 2-4 week stretch every season. This usually happens around June. I know that every pitcher has their off days when nothing works right, but when the entire pitching staff goes through the same funk for an extended period every year that has to be on the coach.

 

Is it the coach or the material? Pitchers have injuries, blow ups with the managers, become trade bait in addition to plain old flameout. There were bullpen pitcherrs like Silva that thrived under Anderson. Mays and Blackburn did well for his talent until injuries derailed them. We will never know what Lohse and Garza could have been under Anderson. Santana never got better as a Twin? Baker nor Milton never got better as a Twin? The problem with sinkerball/control pitchers is, IMO, me they seem binary. Works ok, or batting practice. The pitching coach can only work with the material given him.

 

Reclaimation projects working well under Anderson (your stance) would to me indicate that he could find/remember what worked well for a pitcher and get them to do it again and thus would not be a bad coach. Unfortumately I do not recall any Jimeniz or Kazmirs comeing through. I seem to recall the Ponsons and the like comeing through. I do not think that even the best coach in the world could revive the starting pitching careers of some of the player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not sure it's fair to call a desire to pay LeCroy a few less dollars than Ortiz a "baseball decision."

 

It's slightly more complicated than that. Ortiz was constantly injured and the Twins were stacked with left-handed bats.

 

LeCroy was steamrolling MiLB pitching and hit right-handed. It was likely a baseball decision, though it was a bad one.

[tobi0040]

Are you really using Pat Neshek as an example of Andersons failure's? For starters, Neshek was dominating for the first two years he pitched for the Twins. Does Anderson get any credit for that or was it just luck? Next, Neshek blows out his arm & comes back with way less stuff than before. Yes, the Twins "gave up" on him but how long & how many injured pitchers can they keep on their roster until they "maybe" bounce back?

 

As far as Neshek being "lights out" the last few years, he has pitched very few innings & he has a severe R/L split. He is basically a RH Loogy. Answer me this. If he was so lights out with Oakland, how come they didn't even put him on their playoff roster last year & then took him off their 40 man roster?

 

Even in his two years in Oakland when he had decent stats LH batters pounded him. They had an OPS of 1.108 in 2012 & .922 in 2013. He had to be used in very special situations to have success. We are talking about a guy who made 69 appearances & pitched a total 0f 60 innings in two years.

 

This is getting a little old. I have said at least three times that not everyone of these are the fault of Anderson. However, assembling a list of people that had more success with and without is one data point. I then stated that the list of guys who had more success elsewhere is equal in size or longer. I didn't even say he is a bad coach or that he should be fired, it just seems like he has a great reputation and I would expect a ton of success stories with the Twins versus without.

[tobi0040]

I could be wrong on the major league contract vs. minor league contract thing, but TR attempted and failed to trade Ortiz for a bag of balls at the winter meetings that year, and no one claimed him when he went on waivers... Everyone else thought he was a bad investment to take to arbitration too, which is why he cleared waivers.

 

It was a mistake, yes... but my point is that it tends to be a bit revisionist when no one recognizes that many of these mistakes had extenuating baseball circumstances that forced the decisions, not "player X had bad coaching and flourished under a different coach" or the converse.

 

I can't blame Ortiz on Terry. Teams were not begging for his services as mentioned. He signed a 2 year deal for $4M total I believe.

 

Lot of other moving pieces. He was never healthy here. He moved to a place with a short right field fence and hitting by Manny and others helped a ton. From 2003 to 2006, before the punitive phase of drug testing and prior to test results being public, he averaged 43 HR a year. From 2007 through last season, he averaged 29. You can't say he for sure used, but Manny and him were very close and MLB said 5% to 7% of the samples in 2003 were positive. On top of the New York times linking him. The possibility exists.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/drug_policy.jsp?content=timeline

[Mike Sixel]

Hard to totally rip the Twins for Ortiz. He sat out there for some time before anyone signed him, IIRC.

[jokin]

I can't blame Ortiz on Terry. Teams were not begging for his services as mentioned. He signed a 2 year deal for $4M total I believe.

 

 

No. It was a decision by Ryan to not go to arbitration. Ortiz was making $950,000 with the Twins, and then signed a one-year deal for $1.25M with the Red Sox. I believe that qualifies by the very definition of the phrase- "penny wise, pound foolish" as blame-worthy on Ryan, and to Ryan's credit, he's accepted that blame.

 

What does that have to do with no clubs claiming Ortiz when they had the chance?

 

A lot. The team with the best opportunity to make an informed "baseball decision" on retaining his services..... was the team that had contracted his services.....for the previous 7 years. That he had no perceived value is partly on Ortiz for how he performed in those 7 years...but it's also on the Twins for not developing and maximizing his value before making his services available at the Winter Meetings prior to his release- and for not realizing that his potential worth in just a few short years would be much greater than balking at a small arbitration award- certainly far more value than what Matt LeCroy offered.

 

As Ortiz has related, the Twins hitting philosophical intentions for him just never sunk in or set right with him - which is on both he and the Twins field staff. But ultimately, this is on Ryan- after all, he acquired Ortiz originally, and must have seen his potential to be a special kind of leader as well as a potential game changer at the plate...but also encumbered with unique limitations to his game that required fine tuning. But unlike Theo Epstein, Ryan was unwilling to do whatever it took to make the popular, but mercurial Ortiz square peg fit into the Kelly/Gardy round hole.

[Mike Sixel]

I will rip them for insisting he make good outs, instead of hitting HRs. He's not the only exTwin to comment on that being an issue with his development.

[jokin]

Hard to totally rip the Twins for Ortiz. He sat out there for some time before anyone signed him, IIRC.

 

He signed about a month (January 22, 2003) after being released by the Twins on December 16, 2002, just after the close of the Winter Meetings. And virtually no baseball business occurs the last 2 weeks of December, so Ortiz really wasn't out there long at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That he had no perceived value is partly on Ortiz for how he performed in those 7 years...but it's also on the Twins for not developing and maximizing his value before making his services available at the Winter Meetings prior to his release

 

While the Ortiz situation was quite the blunder, the Twins played Ortiz pretty much every day from May 13th through September 30th before he was released.

 

I'm not sure what else they could have done to "maximize value".

 

I find it really odd that he cleared waivers. The guy OPSed over .800 in 2002, for crying out loud.

[jokin]

I will rip them for insisting he make good outs, instead of hitting HRs. He's not the only exTwin to comment on that being an issue with his development.

 

Yup. The cookie-cutter approach to producing a never-ending string of Twins Way macaroons has to be calibrated to fit the individual physical make-up and skill set. Which is why I have lingering concerns for the ultimate developmental process regarding Kennys Vargas and Miguel Sano.

[jokin]

While the Ortiz situation was quite the blunder, the Twins played Ortiz pretty much every day from May 13th through September 30th before he was released.

 

I'm not sure what else they could have done to "maximize value".

 

I find it really odd that he cleared waivers. The guy OPSed over .800 in 2002, for crying out loud.

 

The Twins could have maximized value by retaining him- not releasing him, and then letting him continue to do for the Twins in 2003 what he did from July 1, 2002 to the end of the season. He carried the team from that point on- he OPS'd at 1.039 the last 3 months of the season, it was surreptitiously becoming "his team", much as the Red Sox ultimately became his team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

No. It was a decision by Ryan to not go to arbitration. Ortiz was making $950,000 with the Twins, and then signed a one-year deal for $1.25M with the Red Sox. I believe that qualifies by the very definition of the phrase- "penny wise, pound foolish" as blame-worthy on Ryan, and to Ryan's credit, he's accepted that blame.

 

 

 

A lot. The team with the best opportunity to make an informed "baseball decision" on retaining his services..... was the team that had contracted his services.....for the previous 7 years. That he had no perceived value is partly on Ortiz for how he performed in those 7 years...but it's also on the Twins for not developing and maximizing his value before making his services available at the Winter Meetings prior to his release- and for not realizing that his potential worth in just a few short years would be much greater than balking at a small arbitration award- certainly far more value than what Matt LeCroy offered.

 

As Ortiz has related, the Twins hitting philosophical intentions for him just never sunk in or set right with him - which is on both he and the Twins field staff. But ultimately, this is on Ryan- after all, he acquired Ortiz originally, and must have seen his potential to be a special kind of leader as well as a potential game changer at the plate...but also encumbered with unique limitations to his game that required fine tuning. But unlike Theo Epstein, Ryan was unwilling to do whatever it took to make the popular, but mercurial Ortiz square peg fit into the Kelly/Gardy round hole.

 

I don't know the contract values offhand jokin, so I'm going to trust you here. That said, he would have made far more than 1.25M in arbitration. That is specifically the point. Terry Ryan couldn't trade him as no one felt he was worth the price. When he was released, every team in baseball could have had Ortiz for the price of arbitration. None of them decided he was worth it, including I might add Theo Epstein. No one is saying that Ortiz was a good decision. What I've been trying to say is that his was very much a baseball decision, and while the Twins made a mistake, everyone else did too. (side note, Epstein said the exact same thing in an article a few years back, noting that he himself made that mistake). And let's also be clear that no one doubted Ortiz's ability to hit. Even using the Twins approach, Ortiz was a very good hitter.

 

This isn't a case of simple incompetence. Baseball's pay structure and Ortiz's injuries made Ortiz too much of a risk to justify action for every team in MLB, otherwise some one would have traded a C level prospect for him or someone would have claimed him when he went on waivers.

 

Let's also not pretend that we know how steroids impacted his development.... because that comes into play here as well, and no one other than Ortiz can honestly say what happened, especially in regards to an oft injured hitter suddenly not being oft-injured anymore.

[Mike Sixel]

Cool article on PEDs, and how there is no evidence they help an individual, on the interwebs this week.

[tobi0040]

I don't know the contract values offhand jokin, so I'm going to trust you here. That said, he would have made far more than 1.25M in arbitration. That is specifically the point. Terry Ryan couldn't trade him as no one felt he was worth the price. When he was released, every team in baseball could have had Ortiz for the price of arbitration. None of them decided he was worth it, including I might add Theo Epstein. No one is saying that Ortiz was a good decision. What I've been trying to say is that his was very much a baseball decision, and while the Twins made a mistake, everyone else did too. (side note, Epstein said the exact same thing in an article a few years back, noting that he himself made that mistake). And let's also be clear that no one doubted Ortiz's ability to hit. Even using the Twins approach, Ortiz was a very good hitter.

 

This isn't a case of simple incompetence. Baseball's pay structure and Ortiz's injuries made Ortiz too much of a risk to justify action for every team in MLB, otherwise some one would have traded a C level prospect for him or someone would have claimed him when he went on waivers.

 

Let's also not pretend that we know how steroids impacted his development.... because that comes into play here as well, and no one other than Ortiz can honestly say what happened, especially in regards to an oft injured hitter suddenly not being oft-injured anymore.

 

Exactly, and the contract value of $1.25M suggests that was the best offer on the table. According to wiki, he was used as a pinch hitter and had a few starts at DH the first two months of the year and was not the regular starter until Jeremy Giambi (not the good one) was benched on June 1.

 

With hindsight it was a bad move, but the other 29 GM's were right alongside Terry on this one.

[Squirrel]

I thought this was a thread on Worley ...