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Reevaluating the Jorge Polanco Trade


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Listening to the Mariners podcast the team & the fans were overjoyed by the trade. That Polanco had been a target for a long time & they really liked his #s though social media tried to put him down because of his injuries. That the pieces they gave up were not that necessary for their bigger plans. But we have to see there are 2 Polancos, The long-time untreated injured Polanco & the healthy Polanco. Most like to focus on the long-time untreated injured Polanco but with last year of taking it easy on him plus a normal offseason I'm betting on a healthy Polanco with corresponding stats

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
                                                          3.3 WAR
2019 25 MIN AL 153 704 631 107 186 40 7 22 79 4 3 60 116 .295 .356 .485 .841 121 306 11 4 2 7 2 *6D/H AS,MVP-13
                                                          4.2 WAR
2021 27 MIN AL 152 644 588 97 158 35 2 33 98 11 6 45 118 .269 .323 .503 .826 125 296 4 5 0 6 0 *46/DH 

Polanco had a great debut with ,333/.500/.833/1.333 & a 268 OPS+, he had a very good BA & OBA early in his career with few ABs. '19 was his big opportunity & had a great 1st half & became an All-Star but because of extended time at SS he played at least the last half with bad ankles & his #s dropped considerably yet he got MVP votes. He ended the season with ankle surgery. '20 he played all season with bad ankles & had another ankle surgery at the end of the season. '21 he was moved off SS & never had ankle problems again & had his only truly healthy season his OAA was 13. '22 he had a good 1st half, in June he hurt his back, they gave him time off,  he bounced back & hasn't had back problems after that. Then he hurt his knee sliding, He played the rest of the season with a bad knee until he could no longer take the field. His stats are good even when playing hurt but they are phenomenal when 100%

Gonzalez is an overrated prospect. He's not a great fielder but has a good arm, so he's projected in RF. He's young so some think he'll add extra power but the truth is his structure is 5'10 so he's pretty much filled out & true evaluators believe he won't hit close to the HRs that he needs to profile to play RF together with his lack of plate discipline his stock will plummet. SEA got rid of him at the right time. Twins have no present or future need for Gonzalez.

DeSclafani, SEA was dying to flip. FO thinks that they can fix his pitch mix (they thought the same about Shoemaker). We don't need another 5th starter, we have plenty of in-house pitchers that need that opportunity more than a washed-up veteran. 

Bowan, a low lotto ticket that this FO likes his weird stats

Topa, a 32 yrs. old flash in the pan, which like Jose Lopez we don't know how he going to react in MN & if that success is sustainable. We also have in-house pitchers we can go with, that need experience & we know.

Money, free up money so they can sign a 1yr. Gallo-type hitting 1B or OF. Here they signed Carlos Santana at 1B, a potential HR hitter that SO less than an average Twin but can he come up with the big hit when we need it? & Miranda is better served as a 1B/DH to raise his stock

I'd rather have a healthy Polanco as a full-time 2B that frees up time for Farmer to be better used elsewhere & his great clutch bat for '24. than all these pieces we really don't need. We weren't over-budget so why trade Polanco? Our only real need is a post-season SP if they can't swing that then it's better to do nothing.

The '24 offseason feels a lot like the '21 offseason. It's good to acknowledge our mistakes so we can learn from them if not we keep on doing them & that can be a big problem

39 Comments


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CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

Just to get this straight you are saying

  • You would bet on Polanco being healthy
  • Gonzalez has absolutely no chance at getting better at baseball
  • Topa is a flash in the pan (who is "Jose" Lopez?)

I don't know how anyone can reasonably say that they believe every single aspect of the move will work out poorly for the Twins and expect anyone else to take it seriously.

You clearly just have an emotional attachment to Polanco and will never acknowledge that it wasn't a bad move. 

Rod Carews Birthday

Posted

There is probably a 50/50 chance that Polanco will have a good season.  If that were with the Twins as full time second baseman, it means far less at bats for Julien, who was clearly better offensively last year while being at least his equal on defense. 

There is probably a 50/50 chance (or even greater) that Topa will have a good season.  A solid setup guy is pretty valuable.

There is probably a 50/50 chance that Gonzalez will become a MLB outfielder of some skill, with probably a 10% chance that he will be a star some day in the future.  He's a top 100 talent.  That makes his chances of at least some success pretty decent. 

There is probably a 40% chance that DeSclafani will be a serviceable pitcher in the #5 spot.  Meh.

There is probably a 10% chance that Bowen becomes a serviceable MLB relief pitcher some day in the future. It's a flyer.

All of this is to say I think you are overestimating Jorge Polanco's value to the Twins at this point. 

Doctor Gast

Posted

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Just to get this straight you are saying

  • You would bet on Polanco being healthy
  • Gonzalez has absolutely no chance at getting better at baseball
  • Topa is a flash in the pan (who is "Jose" Lopez?)

I don't know how anyone can reasonably say that they believe every single aspect of the move will work out poorly for the Twins and expect anyone else to take it seriously.

You clearly just have an emotional attachment to Polanco and will never acknowledge that it wasn't a bad move. 

I'm willing to trade Polanco tomorrow if that would be our best move & besides I don't see Polanco in the '25 Twins future but not now under these terms. How fast do they forget it's Jorge Lopez, my mistake. 

It's easy, by observing researching, & looking at the odds, Polanco should be healthy for the most part in '24 if managed properly. Gonzalez will not help our club now or ever, Topa (32) is a shot in the dark, he might contribute or like Jorge Lopez he might not. 

mikegtc33

Posted

Crazy Idea; I'd rather have both Polanco (until at least the All-Star Break) and Julien and trade Farmer. But really though, I'm just thankful Derek Carr doesn't play baseball so he can't destroy both of my teams.

terrydactyls

Posted

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm willing to trade Polanco tomorrow if that would be our best move & besides I don't see Polanco in the '25 Twins future but not now under these terms. How fast do they forget it's Jorge Lopez, my mistake. 

It's easy, by observing researching, & looking at the odds, Polanco should be healthy for the most part in '24 if managed properly. Gonzalez will not help our club now or ever, Topa (32) is a shot in the dark, he might contribute or like Jorge Lopez he might not. 

Polanco will be healthy if managed properly???  So it's all up to management if he is healthy?  Now that is a novel idea.

RpR

Posted

On 2/3/2024 at 5:41 PM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

There is probably a 50/50 chance that Polanco will have a good season.  If that were with the Twins as full time second baseman, it means far less at bats for Julien, who was clearly better offensively last year while being at least his equal on defense. 

 

LOL

Doctor Gast

Posted

8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Polanco will be healthy if managed properly???  So it's all up to management if he is healthy?  Now that is a novel idea.

Managed properly is when a player gets hurt you treat it, mismanaged is when you play that player until he no longer can take the field, (some teams do that). That's common sense if that's novel then baseball is in bad shape. Because of Paparesta,  Polanco was managed properly healthwise last season. This novel idea has & will continue to revolutionize the Twins. Instead of always limping into the postseason every year.

twinfan

Posted

I was not for trading Polanco when the subject came up. However, this deal seems fair for both sides. I think the Twins will be happy with DiSClafani and Topa and Gonzalez may be a helpful addition if someone gets hurt. If the trade opens up at bats for others and they succeed, that also is a plus. But losing Polanco will hurt the offense at this point.

jmlease1

Posted

Say Carlos Santana had been included in the trade (signed by Seattle before being included in the deal)...how does it look then?

I loved Jorge Polanco, I think he was underrated while he was here and while he wasn't a consistent all-star level performer he was a very good player who did everything the team asked of him, was a leader in the clubhouse, and brought a lot of value with his bat playing up the middle. He's also getting older, and has struggled with injuries the last 2 seasons.

The Twins gave up the best player in the trade, which is a little unfortunate when you're a contending team trying to improve to go for a title. But that's the way it goes when you're looking to deal 1 guy, and the Twins got good value back that will contribute this season and some prospects that could give more.

I wasn't particularly enthusiastic about Santana, but having heard that Miranda might not be fully recovered from shoulder surgery, I'm happier with the decision, and I feel like his acquisition has to be considered as part of the overall trade evaluation. Topa doesn't really deserve the comp to Lopez; Topa's problem before last season was health, which seems to be no longer an issue. Lopez was based on hope that he'd ironed out his performance issues and could stay consistent, but his personal struggles clearly impacted his game; that was unfortunate, but also not really predictable. While Topa might regress this season, there's little reason to believe he'll implode like that. DeSclafani doesn't raise the ceiling on the rotation like we might have hoped, but should raise the floor; he's been good when healthy, and his been poor when he's not. Gonzalez is a prospect with real upside and flaws that need to be ironed out, and Bowen is a lottery ticket.

The Twins have better aligned their roster with this trade, getting starting pitching depth, improving the bullpen, and getting a veteran platoon partner at 1B while adding prospects to the farm system. That's a respectable return for a player who has only played about a half a season in 3 of the last 6 seasons and only has 2 seasons left of team control on a contract that's closer to market rate. With Julien already showing out well at 2B, Brooks Lee waiting in the wings, Farmer a better fit in a utility role (cheaper, more positional flexibility, better defense), moving Polanco made sense, and this is a return that works out ok for now and potentially in the future. Was I hoping the Twins could package Polanco into a better starting pitcher? Sure was, but my hopes don't define the market and keeping Polanco would have been the wrong decision.

Rod Carews Birthday

Posted

9 hours ago, RpR said:

LOL

Sorry but you make it difficult to respond to your argument in any way.   So I won’t.  We apparently disagree.  

tony&rodney

Posted

The Polanco to Seattle story is history. 

A host of posts are suggesting the Twins are better off today and will benefit in the upcoming season from the offseason additions. I hope so as much as the next guy. This is pure speculation. 

Just out of curiosity let us look at this in another speculative manner. If last November the Twins had announced that the team would add Anthony DeSclafaini as the starting pitcher they needed, Justin Topa as the relief pitcher they needed, Carlos Santana as the bat they needed, and that Jorge Polanco was no longer needed .....

I'm just curious and wondering what level of satisfaction, grade, number 1-10, or other judgment would folks have about those improvements toward winning a World Series?

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's easy, by observing researching, & looking at the odds, Polanco should be healthy for the most part in '24 if managed properly. Gonzalez will not help our club now or ever, Topa (32) is a shot in the dark, he might contribute or like Jorge Lopez he might not. 

This doesn't mean anything. You are speculating, don't try to hide behind platitudes you clearly don't understand.

Acting like you know the truth when you're unable to actually describe anything specific is a farce. And an easily seen-through farce, at that. 

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Managed properly is when a player gets hurt you treat it, mismanaged is when you play that player until he no longer can take the field, (some teams do that). That's common sense if that's novel then baseball is in bad shape. Because of Paparesta,  Polanco was managed properly healthwise last season. This novel idea has & will continue to revolutionize the Twins. Instead of always limping into the postseason every year.

Jorge Polanco played his fewest games since 2018 last season. This stuff is so easy to look up and verify. 

terrydactyls

Posted

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Managed properly is when a player gets hurt you treat it, mismanaged is when you play that player until he no longer can take the field, (some teams do that). That's common sense if that's novel then baseball is in bad shape. Because of Paparesta,  Polanco was managed properly healthwise last season. This novel idea has & will continue to revolutionize the Twins. Instead of always limping into the postseason every year.

Properly managed but still missed half the season.  Good trade for the Twins.

Doctor Gast

Posted

23 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Jorge Polanco played his fewest games since 2018 last season. This stuff is so easy to look up and verify. 

Verify what? No one is contesting that Polanco didn't play a lot in '23 that's the point of hiring Paparesta to fix players that were broken & have them ready to play if it takes half the season to undo the physical abuse from '22 so be it. Tons of injuries isn't most of the time bad luck it's bad management.

terrydactyls

Posted

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Missed half the season but now Polanco is 100%. Absolutely bad trade for the Twins

Almost everybody (including me) is 100% right now.  That probably won't be true by May 1st.

Doctor Gast

Posted

Social media is full of people trying to force their agenda on all who'd listen. It's not a place to get unbiased information but yet here is where fans go & w/o questioning believe everything they read. My mission is to get people to be open, question sources, observe & make reasonable conclusions.

Polanco was properly treated in '23 & had a normal '24 offseason FACT odds are that he's 100% for '24 banning any unforeseen accidents that all players are subject to.

By an evaluator who is unbiased, does not follow the herd & I respect, evaluated Gonzalez much lower because of the reasons I priorly stated FACT. Odds are he won't impact the Twins in '24 or ever.

DeSclafani a pitcher SEA was eager to flip to free up the 40-man. Bowan is a low-lotto ticket that does not impact the '24 Twins if ever.

Topa is not a sure thing. He could help the Twins a little or not at all. To me Topa is not enough to tip the needle to trade Polanco.

Social media HOPES that the Twins can work their magic on DeSclafani & Bowan, magically Gonzalez is the player ranked by some & can be traded to a team that desperately needs a RH cOF, 2 or 3 years from now (good luck). That Topa will adapt to MN & sustain his success from SEA.

Rod Carews Birthday

Posted

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Polanco to Seattle story is history. 

A host of posts are suggesting the Twins are better off today and will benefit in the upcoming season from the offseason additions. I hope so as much as the next guy. This is pure speculation. 

Just out of curiosity let us look at this in another speculative manner. If last November the Twins had announced that the team would add Anthony DeSclafaini as the starting pitcher they needed, Justin Topa as the relief pitcher they needed, Carlos Santana as the bat they needed, and that Jorge Polanco was no longer needed .....

I'm just curious and wondering what level of satisfaction, grade, number 1-10, or other judgment would folks have about those improvements toward winning a World Series?

You’re correct.  It is speculation from either side, much as the sky was falling last year when the Arraez/Lopez trade happened and everything was great when the midseason Tyler Mahle for prospects trade happened.  

DeSclafani isn’t a top of the rotation guy but he is needed 5th starter depth and based on last years usage, Topa is likely a Griffin Jax level reliever which is also something we need.  The Santana signing doesn’t move the needle much for me but then again neither did last years MAT trade or Donnie Barrels signing, so I’m reserving final judgement.  

Whether Polanco was needed on this years team is also open to interpretation.  I happen to think that Eddie Julien replaces him well in the lineup and in the field at no cost, with Brooks Lee lurking in AAA.  Most signs would point to one or both of these two players equating to a Polanco-like contribution or higher.  But again, it’s always speculation (or more informed hypothesizing).  

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Verify what? No one is contesting that Polanco didn't play a lot in '23 that's the point of hiring Paparesta to fix players that were broken & have them ready to play if it takes half the season to undo the physical abuse from '22 so be it. Tons of injuries isn't most of the time bad luck it's bad management.

It's crazy to me that you think you can just gloss over facts and try to push a narrative that everyone knows you couldn't possibly prove.

Have you done any homework yet regarding the "many catching prospects who are blocked and easy to trade for"?

All you do is make **** up and hope that sounding confident will make that BS palatable. It's very obvious you don't have a clue, and yet have this completely unfounded confidence. 

CCHOF5yearstoolate

Posted

48 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Social media is full of people trying to force their agenda on all who'd listen. It's not a place to get unbiased information but yet here is where fans go & w/o questioning believe everything they read. My mission is to get people to be open, question sources, observe & make reasonable conclusions.

Polanco was properly treated in '23 & had a normal '24 offseason FACT odds are that he's 100% for '24 banning any unforeseen accidents that all players are subject to.

By an evaluator who is unbiased, does not follow the herd & I respect, evaluated Gonzalez much lower because of the reasons I priorly stated FACT. Odds are he won't impact the Twins in '24 or ever.

DeSclafani a pitcher SEA was eager to flip to free up the 40-man. Bowan is a low-lotto ticket that does not impact the '24 Twins if ever.

Topa is not a sure thing. He could help the Twins a little or not at all. To me Topa is not enough to tip the needle to trade Polanco.

Social media HOPES that the Twins can work their magic on DeSclafani & Bowan, magically Gonzalez is the player ranked by some & can be traded to a team that desperately needs a RH cOF, 2 or 3 years from now (good luck). That Topa will adapt to MN & sustain his success from SEA.

Your entire schtick is focusing on only the few voices that support your narratives, and now you're calling your narrative a fact?

This has become laughable. You are by far the least objective person I have seen commenting on the Polanco trade. I hope you can see that, because it's obvious to everyone else. 

RpR

Posted

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Sorry but you make it difficult to respond to your argument in any way.   So I won’t.  We apparently disagree.  

Julien is bad on defense, the TV commentators said, during games, hat he should have been scored with errors but the scorers were babying him.

image.png.5010f2d87f150f58f351d5a9703428d9.png

Batting verses Lefties

image.png.e23c91c5e130908d9fad862a494b23a2.png

Not better than Polanco offensively.

You made a preposterous statement you got preposterous answer.

tony&rodney

Posted

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

DeSclafani isn’t a top of the rotation guy but he is needed 5th starter depth and based on last years usage, Topa is likely a Griffin Jax level reliever which is also something we need.  The Santana signing doesn’t move the needle much for me but then again neither did last years MAT trade or Donnie Barrels signing, so I’m reserving final judgement.  

Whether Polanco was needed on this years team is also open to interpretation.  I happen to think that Eddie Julien replaces him well in the lineup and in the field at no cost, with Brooks Lee lurking in AAA.  Most signs would point to one or both of these two players equating to a Polanco-like contribution or higher.  But again, it’s always speculation (or more informed hypothesizing).  

I appreciate your response and agree with your statements.

My question is more focused on what level of satisfaction would you (anyone) have had if Falvey had declared the changes we have now last November. I mean (actually) zero persons mentioned any of these players at any point, to my knowledge, during the past three plus months among a couple of hundred names put forth as possible or hopeful acquisitions. I'm just wondering more or less, not really important at all.

Rod Carews Birthday

Posted

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Julien is bad on defense, the TV commentators said, during games, hat he should have been scored with errors but the scorers were babying him.

Batting verses Lefties

image.png.e23c91c5e130908d9fad862a494b23a2.png

Not better than Polanco offensively.

You made a preposterous statement you got preposterous answer.

Dude.  Seriously.     

Image2-4-24at3_11PM.jpg.6bf8513ca67d8a97a901ecb709d76ec4.jpg

I like Polanco.  I have enjoyed watching him, but a guy five years younger with team control who puts up better numbers is a better offensive player than he is currently and is more likely than not to be so in the future as they both age.  Choosing the SSS of lefty vs. lefty as the summation of Julien's batting ability almost reinforces the argument because that means that something else is dragging down Polanco's overall numbers, since they are lower than Julien's.  Julien has work to do against lefties, for sure, but it's certainly not crippling him offensively at this point.  He's a good player who is likely to get better.

Defensively, "the TV commentators said, during games, hat he should have been scored with errors but the scorers were babying him" doesn't move the needle.  He was a bad defender when he came up but his defense improved immensely over the course of the season. That happens all the time with young players.   I don't have the stats in hand, but I have seen his season divided such that he was essentially a neutral (average) defender in the last half of his season vs. the first half of his season.  Don't misunderstand.  I'm not saying he's ever winning a gold glove, but Polanco wasn't winning one either.  Julien will likely improve from where he is as he gains experience and a comfort level in the big leagues.  Polanco is very unlikely to improve at this point in his career as he ages and loses physical skills.

  Julien:image.png.5010f2d87f150f58f351d5a9703428d9.png

Polanco:Image2-4-24at3_27PM.jpg.bbcc1774111977207a749f61764edcdb.jpg

I will agree to disagree here because you will not be convinced, but I would reserve preposterous for "Let's trade Nick Gordon for George Kirby straight up" kinds of comments.  In this case, I am merely stating that I am pleased with the overall return for Polanco and that his position in the lineup can be reasonably compensated for by the talent currently on the team. 

Rod Carews Birthday

Posted

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I appreciate your response and agree with your statements.

My question is more focused on what level of satisfaction would you (anyone) have had if Falvey had declared the changes we have now last November. I mean (actually) zero persons mentioned any of these players at any point, to my knowledge, during the past three plus months among a couple of hundred names put forth as possible or hopeful acquisitions. I'm just wondering more or less, not really important at all.

That's an interesting question actually.  I would say that the fanbase and the media tend to focus on the shiniest objects in the room such that half (or more) of the players in MLB are just "others".  That's not a fair assessment of those players, but speaking for myself, there are a HUGE number of players that I just don't know much, if anything, about.  It seems like players with an interesting back story or an unusual trait (baseball or personal) are going to get more press than a guy who is just "solid major leaguer".  I think a couple of great examples of that would be Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer -- really solid major leaguers that are a little nameless and faceless to the average fan (unless they play for your team).  I think to a lesser extent Jorge Polanco is like that as well to fans of other teams.  On the opposite end of the spectrum are guys like Nick Gordon, who many people outside of Twins fandom know about because he comes from a strong baseball lineage, even if he isn't as good a player as those other three guys.  I think actual major league front offices have much more information and a much less subjective opinion of many more players than we do as fans, so they can make decisions that we would be uncomfortable making.  That being said, sometimes they screw it up.  That's when we as fans can call them idiots!

I guess the end answer to the question would be "not very satisfied" but that probably sells the incoming players a little short. 


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