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Who says no? Miami Marlins Edition


Who says no?  

40 members have voted

  1. 1. Who says No

    • Twins
      7
    • Marlins
      13
    • Both
      19
    • None
      1

Twins Video

While it is often said that the small moves are the moves that typically end up winning championships, blockbusters are much more fun to theorize on.  A complete hypothetical MEGA deal here.

And in that vane (or is it vein?) lets play another round of "Who Says No??!!"

The Twins have some high  quality prospects on the position side.  Miami has some high quality major league pitchers and pitching prospects.

 

In a trade where Miami moves THREE of its top pitchers for TWO of the Twins top prospects who says no?

Miami sending Jesus Luzardo, the injured Alcantara and older prospect Max Meyer in exchange for Brooks Lee and one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins.

Alcantara is an absolute ACE!!!, btu he will be lost for the entire 2024. Does Miami want to pay him $9M this year to NOT pitch and $17M in a comeback year next year?  chances are probably not.  Luzardo ha a breakout year after a strong but limited 2022. but last year was the first year he has pitched over 100 innings. IS he a sell high candidate with 2 more years of control after this year?  more than likely.  Max Meyer is an uber talented but super high injury risk home town kid. Meyer will be 25 before the start fo the season, while not ancient by any means that is starting to get up there in age for a prospect. He is just now coming back from a full year off due to injury. so there is risk there but also has huge upside. All three of these pitchers have enough warts to make them tradeable, but also enough upside to make them worth the risk.  This could be the perfect Now & Later deal for the Twins. They add an immediate #2 (or better) to the rotation for 2024 in Luzardo, have another high upside arm in Meyer who is just starting his arbitration clock, and also have a future ace in Alcantara in the wings for next year.

 

The Twins sending Brooks Lee a top 20 overall prospect as the starting point in this trade could smart a bit, especially if Correa or Lewis lose time due to injury, but it is well worth the risk for top end pitching when we have the infield depth we have with Lewis, Correa, Julien, Farmer, Gordon, Polanco (for now). plus even Austin Martin as a potential utility guy. Just 1 top 20 overall pick does not get this deal done, we would also need to include one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez, or the most recent #5 overall pick Walker Jenkins. Both with potential massive upsides, but also both a couple years out. Personally I would rather move Rodriguez than Jenkins, but that might be filed under "DUH" since Jenkins is younger and a top 15 overall prospect.

SO regardless of if you go Lee & Jenkins, or Lee and Rodriguez,   for Meyer, Luzardo, Alcantara,   who says no, Twins or Marlins?

20 Comments


Recommended Comments

Otaknam

Posted

Lee and another prospect not named Jenkins or Rodriquez could work, considering you are trading for some damaged goods. How these guys recover from injuries is unknown, so it’s a risk.. The last time they did that was for Mahle, a disastrous trade. Trading Jenkins would be management malfeasance, a firing offense. 

Doc Munson

Posted

41 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Lee and another prospect not named Jenkins or Rodriquez could work, considering you are trading for some damaged goods. How these guys recover from injuries is unknown, so it’s a risk.. The last time they did that was for Mahle, a disastrous trade. Trading Jenkins would be management malfeasance, a firing offense. 

So you say Twins say no?

1985Fan

Posted

Miami says no! I can’t see them trading away their top two arms. In today's market, SP is the asset with the highest value based on limited supply and seemingly limitless demand. Luzardo alone would net a haul for Miami if they wanted to trade him. How would they justify trading their top SP and their Cy Young ace? They made the playoffs and got swept in 2 games. Making this proposed trade does not improve their roster to get deeper into the playoffs this year. 

Paul D

Posted

I'm thinking Luzado and Meyer for Lee and Rodriguez may get it done. I can't see them getting rid of Alcantra or use Jenkins.

Pitching is getting a premium in trades now and the fact that Lee or Rodriguez are not yet major league ready may be a problem.

How about Julien in the trade and Lee out?

Heiny

Posted

H E DOUBLE TOOTHPICK NO!!!!!

Oldgoat_MN

Posted

I think the only way you pry Luzardo away is by taking Alcantara (and the money owed him) while also paying a high price in prospects. Meyer is also included only if Miami believes he will never be particularly successful again.

I'd go Lee or Julien plus Rodriguez. I suspect Miami says no.

JD-TWINS

Posted

23 hours ago, Paul D said:

I'm thinking Luzado and Meyer for Lee and Rodriguez may get it done. I can't see them getting rid of Alcantra or use Jenkins.

Pitching is getting a premium in trades now and the fact that Lee or Rodriguez are not yet major league ready may be a problem.

How about Julien in the trade and Lee out?

Julien - Rodriguez - Headrick - Sands for Luzardo & Meyer might be a trade that would balance?

Can’t see Miami trading a local hero & youthful, former Cy Young winner! I get he’s somewhat expensive for them but he has more trade value going into ‘25……after he’s done some off season workouts & thrown enough to give another team some confidence.

After the past 3 months of considering trades, Julien’s offense (OBP with power) is too hard to let go of for nearly any upside. He could play 2B for the next 6 years or more!

Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B - Lewis in LF or 1B as a mirror with Kirilloff in those 2 spots starting in ‘25, sounds really good!

Team’s pitching can hold up, worst case, til the deadline in ‘24.

TopGunn#22

Posted

I agree that the idea of trading Miami "prospects" isn't going to fly with them at this point.  They want to contend for a Wild Card spot and see how far their pitching can take them.  So somebody from the major league roster is going to be needed to make this deal.  

From Miami's perspective, I think they would require Julien rather than Lee.  They need offense and Julien fits the bill if they move Arraez to 1B.  The Twins may need to include Kepler or Polanco as well instead of Emmanuel Rodriguez (Jenkins is untouchable). 

What I like about this speculation is the addition of Alcantara into the mix as a negative asset for the Marlins.  Paying Alcantara to rehab this season may not be in the Marlins plans but I would be more than willing as a Twins fan to take on that burden for the potential payoff of Alcantara in my rotation for the next 4 years at a price I think is reasonable for the Twins future budgets.  Meyer is an unnecessary piece of the deal and somebody Miami needs to hold onto for present and future rotation depth.  

Maybe the deal looks more like this:  Julien, Polanco and Vasquez for Braxton Garrett and Alcantara.  Luzardo is too big a fish to land when Julien is the headliner.  The Twins would still need a SP for their 2024 rotation.  Garrett would instantly slide in at #3 with Ryan #2.  The Marlins need a catcher as well so Vasquez makes sense.  Julien and Polanco are in a 1B/2B/DH rotation for Miami and certainly upgrades their lineup while keeping Luzardo and Eury Perez at the top of their rotation.  

The Twins have a 2024 rotation of:  Lopez, Ryan, Garrett, Ober and Paddack.  Varland & Festa are in reserve, Varland is possibly in the Twins bullpen.  In 2025 the rotation is Lopez, Alcantara, Ryan, Garrett and Ober with Paddack, Varland and Festa.  Lee replaces Julien in 2024.  Camargo becomes Jeffers backup.  Twins starting pitching is deep and talented for the future as Lewis, Wallner, Lee, Jeffers, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins start to populate the lineup.

BOTH the Marlins and the Twins could say "No."  One of them very well could say "No."  But BOTH of them just may say "Yes."  And it could work out as well as Lopez for Arraez did for both teams.   

TopGunn#22

Posted

Forgot to mention Kirilloff and Miranda.  JD-Twins helped with that. 

Fatbat

Posted

All these responses with different names in trades that doesn’t answer your question.  I would say that neither team would agree to that deal. I don’t think either team would even propose it. 

August J Gloop

Posted

I wouldn't be shocked to find out that Luzardo and Alcantra have been tied together all off season in potential trades. The Twins would absolutely deal for "Sandy Luzardo" if the Fish were just looking to discharge payroll. No chance that kindof move nets the Fish much in the line of prospects since it's basically all risk right now. Luzardo, the asset gets the other team to take on Alcantra, the likely ruined pitcher who will be owed 43 M. All teams have to write off players who undergo TJS, until they can prove they are coming back (and while the success rate is getting better, it's not good enough for the Marlins to bank that cash on). He went under the knife in October, so he won't pitch a full season in '25 even. It will be much like Kenta's last year. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209837/

If they were willing to absorb the Alcantra deal on the 80% chance he'll be 80% of who he was before the surgery, the Twins could get that deal done with Kepler. Maybe even AK. Which is why they won't do it, by the way. Much too risky for the Twins.

JesusisLord7

Posted

Let's shop Carlos Correa around the league for pitching. I want to keep Brooks Lee to play shortstop. Keep the young players together.  No on Brooks Lee and no on Jenkins. 

I'm willing to trade Kirilloff, Larnach, Kepler, Polanco, Ober, and Vasquez. The only prospect that I'd deal to the Marlins would be Rodriquez. 

tony&rodney

Posted

9 hours ago, JesusisLord7 said:

Let's shop Carlos Correa around the league for pitching. I want to keep Brooks Lee to play shortstop. Keep the young players together.  No on Brooks Lee and no on Jenkins. 

I'm willing to trade Kirilloff, Larnach, Kepler, Polanco, Ober, and Vasquez. The only prospect that I'd deal to the Marlins would be Rodriquez. 

Carlos Correa has a no trade clause in his contract. 

terrydactyls

Posted

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Carlos Correa has a no trade clause in his contract. 

I find it very curious that the phrase above has to be added to almost every article about possible trades.  I was under the impression that Twins Daily readers were knowledgeable and true fans of the team.

tony&rodney

Posted

12 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I find it very curious that the phrase above has to be added to almost every article about possible trades.  I was under the impression that Twins Daily readers were knowledgeable and true fans of the team.

To be fair, sometimes there are obvious instances where a player waives the NT clause. Perhaps some people feel Correa would do so. Correa doesn't seem likely to simply let that go in my opinion. It seems fair to respect the clause and not include players in ideas for trades when a guy has insisted on a NT clause in their contract. Often the NT means the player gives up something, however slight, in return.

chpettit19

Posted

20 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

I wouldn't be shocked to find out that Luzardo and Alcantra have been tied together all off season in potential trades. The Twins would absolutely deal for "Sandy Luzardo" if the Fish were just looking to discharge payroll. No chance that kindof move nets the Fish much in the line of prospects since it's basically all risk right now. Luzardo, the asset gets the other team to take on Alcantra, the likely ruined pitcher who will be owed 43 M. All teams have to write off players who undergo TJS, until they can prove they are coming back (and while the success rate is getting better, it's not good enough for the Marlins to bank that cash on). He went under the knife in October, so he won't pitch a full season in '25 even. It will be much like Kenta's last year. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209837/

If they were willing to absorb the Alcantra deal on the 80% chance he'll be 80% of who he was before the surgery, the Twins could get that deal done with Kepler. Maybe even AK. Which is why they won't do it, by the way. Much too risky for the Twins.

I'd think if a team could get both Luzardo and Alcantara in the same trade they'd both be dealt by now. The Yankees would take that in a heartbeat. The Red Sox would love to have those 2 guys. Not sure why Sandy wouldn't throw a full season in 2025 when he'll be 17 months removed from surgery. He'll be ready opening day with likely no limitations. I think the Marlins would get an absolute haul of talent for those 2. TJS just doesn't scare teams anymore. Tyler Mahle just got 22 mil from the Rangers for 1+ years of pitching coming off TJS and he's never won a Cy Young and is a year older than Sandy. I think you're way overselling how scared teams are of Tommy John.

Otaknam

Posted

On 1/20/2024 at 7:44 AM, Doc Munson said:

So you say Twins say no?

No to trading Jenkins under any circumstance. He is a future impact player. Anyone else is fair game.

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