Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • entry
    1
  • comments
    20
  • views
    899

Twins/Pirates Draft Trade - Chaos

jishfish

Entry posted by jishfish in MLB Draft/Trades ·

5,279 views

 Share

Twins Video

I want to begin by emphasizing the point that there is less than a 0.01% chance of this ever happening, but reading Kiley McDaniel's mock draft the other day and his mention of "chaotic vibe" got me thinking about a scenario that would qualify as "Willi Castro-level chaos".

I want to be clear that this is not something I personally would want to see the Twins do. I think the clear and obvious choice should be to draft and develop whatever top 5 talent drops to them. But if that's not something they are interested in doing, I think this is a unique way to capitalize on that picks value.

Let's layout some assumptions for this scenario.

Assumptions:

  • There is a consensus Top 5 in this year's draft, all of whom are of a talent level that would be in consideration at #1 overall most years. 
  • The Twins may not be interested in all 5 of those players:
    1. They are most interested in Crews/Langford, but in talking with teams/agents leading up to the draft, neither of them is going to make it to #5. 
    2. Their draft models value hitters over pitchers, and they wouldn't be willing to take Paul Skenes at #5.
    3. The are looking for more immediate impact than a HS draftee could provide, and they wouldn't be willing to take Max Clark or Walker Jenkins at #5.
  • The draft plays out the same exact way as Kiley's mock draft (Clark--> Crews--> Langford--> Jenkins--> Skenes)
  • The Twins Front Office is starting to feel the heat and have decided 'Screw building for the future, we've lost 18 straight playoff games, no more', and are willing to go to some unconventional measures to improve this team at the trade deadline.
  • All players mentioned from here on out will continue to perform at their current All-Star caliber level and remain healthy.

Based on the above, what if the Twins approached the Pirates on Draft Weekend and gave them the option to walk away with two of the top five talents in this class?

The Trade: Mitch Keller + David Bednar for Twins #5 Overall Pick

Now I know what you're thinking. I can hear you screaming at your computer right now. "You idiot! You can't trade draft picks!". Yup, I know and am aware of that, I promise. You can trade PTBNL however, which is our little loophole to bring this back to reality. Obviously the Twins can't just send the #5 pick and associated bonus pool money to the Pirates. But taking a page out of the 2014 Padres book, they could make a deal with whomever the draft at #5 overall on a list of possible Players To Be Named Later, which would send that prospect over to the Pirates immediately after the World Series.

Why would the Pirates consider doing this?

  • The Pirates have been a nice story to start the year, but I don't think they (or anyone else) really believe they're close to contending. They're in this for the long run, and getting two top 5 talents in a generational draft would be a great way to do that.
  • If this were agreed upon pre-draft, it opens up some really interesting possibilities for them to get creative.
    • Assuming the word leading up to the draft is that neither of the College OF will be available at 5, that leaves Skenes/Jenkins/Clark as the three options. None of whom the Twins want long-term, but all of whom hold immense trade value.
    • The Pirates lean into Kiley's "chaos scenario" and take Max Clark #1 overall because he will take the biggest discount, thereby allowing them to float a first round talent down to their second round pick.
  • Assuming the draft plays out as assumed above, that would leave the Pirates walking away with Clark + Skenes + [Insert additional first round talent].

Why would the Twins consider doing this?

  • Assuming the two College OF's they really want will not be available at #5, this gives the Twins a chance to capitalize on the trade value of one of the talents they aren't as interested in.
  • The assumption here is that both Keller and Bednar will remain healthy and continue pitching at the level they have been.
    • That means a sub-3.00 era, top of the rotation level for Keller, and
    • A low-2's era, shutdown level closer for Bedner.
    • Keller comes with 2.5 years of team control along with 3.5 years of control for Bednar, so you're essentially trading for the same amount of team control as you would get with the #5 pick.
  • The Twins would go into the post-season with a top-3 rotation (Gray/Ryan/Lopez/Keller), plus a lights out bullpen duo in Bednar/Duran.
    • I know the pitching hasn't exactly been the problem this year like it has in years past, but perhaps they choose to just lean into it being a strength and assume some of the bats will turn things around to be at least a league average offense.
  • While the perception of this trade would be "The Twins traded Paul Skenes for Keller/Bednar", the reality would be that they chose Keller/Bednar > Jacob Gonzalez/[Insert second tier college hitter].
    • Again, the assumption is (right or wrong) the Twins would not be willing to use their pick on Skenes/Clark/Jenkins, instead preferring a college bat.

 

Is this something I would want the Twins to do or be excited about the Twins doing? No. I think they were gifted a Top 5 pick in a draft with 5 top tier players, and to waste that by taking someone besides one of those players would be stupid and a fire-able offense. But if some of what has been leaking out is based in reality, I would rather see them utilize that pick value like this, rather than squandering it on a Jacob Gonzalez or Jacob Wilson-level player.

Would love to hear peoples thoughts and reactions if you have any! All I ask is that you consider the assumptions/scenario I laid out. This is all hypothetical and has absolutely 0% chance of ever happening, but I thought it was a unique idea and wanted to take some time to write it all out to see what it would look like.

 Share

20 Comments

Recommended Comments

tarheeltwinsfan

Really interesting article Jish. Well reasoned thought process. I too would not want the Twins to draft anyone other than one of the consensus top 5 draft prospects.  But I submit that Crews and Langford and Skenes offer the most immediate help, out of the top 5. From what I have read ("All I know is what I read in the newspapers" Will Rogers) I believe that Skenes is the draft prospect who will be a true ace in the major leagues. I am a firm believer in emphasizing pitching. This year for the Twins has proven that defense and hitting have important places in the formular for winning.  Having said all this, I hope the Twins draft Paul Skenes. I'll take that risk, but then, my job does not depend on it. 

Link to comment
chaderic20

According to this Fangraphs article, "commencing with players eligible for the 2015 Rule 4 Draft, (a) players selected in the Draft may be traded beginning on the day following the conclusion of the World Series, and (b) drafted players cannot be PTBNLs unless they otherwise could be traded pursuant to Rule 3(b)(6), as amended, at the time of the trade". So, the Twins couldn't trade whoever they draft at #5 until the day after the WS.

Also, players unexpectedly fall down the draft board all the time, so there's no reason to expect that the top four picks will  be as anyone projects, leaving only so-and-so at #5.

Link to comment
Hawkeye Bean Counter

This isn't feasible but nice try.  For me in order my preference assuming Crews is gone is Skenes, Langford, Clark.    Skenes looks like he could potentially be a #1 headline starter and fits the exact mold of what the Twins are doing.  They would not trade him unless we get a #1 pitcher on his rookie contract with 3 years remaining.  It is interesting that there is rumors that the Pirates like Clark which completely changes the drafts dynamics.  Its assumed Crews is going #1 and Skenes was going #2.  If this flips it changes the dynamics and the Skenes camp can push more for a preferred destination between the next 3 based on salary demands.   

Link to comment
jishfish
1 hour ago, chaderic20 said:

According to this Fangraphs article, "commencing with players eligible for the 2015 Rule 4 Draft, (a) players selected in the Draft may be traded beginning on the day following the conclusion of the World Series, and (b) drafted players cannot be PTBNLs unless they otherwise could be traded pursuant to Rule 3(b)(6), as amended, at the time of the trade". So, the Twins couldn't trade whoever they draft at #5 until the day after the WS.

Also, players unexpectedly fall down the draft board all the time, so there's no reason to expect that the top four picks will  be as anyone projects, leaving only so-and-so at #5.

Ah hell. Well there goes that idea... Oh well, kept me busy writing this instead of doing my actual job, so I'll take the distraction at least. Appreciate the clarification!

Link to comment
tarheeltwinsfan
58 minutes ago, jishfish said:

Ah hell. Well there goes that idea... Oh well, kept me busy writing this instead of doing my actual job, so I'll take the distraction at least. Appreciate the clarification!

Great response Jish. Your proposal had me at "Hello". 

Link to comment
Irishman
On 6/1/2023 at 4:15 PM, ashbury said:

You idiot!  You can't trade draft picks!

That's right.  

Link to comment
Twinkies are for eating

Skenes all the way. I’m not sold on our farm system developing talent. Skenes could join the rotation this year. A dominant true number 1 pitcher is the hardest asset to obtain. Even with a hot start, I’m not sure we have a number 2 in our rotation. Ryan maybe. Lopez is looking like a 3. Gray is having a resurgence, but he’s prob a 3. Just don’t get cute and draft someone outside of the consensus top 5 please.

Link to comment
Heistyman
7 hours ago, Twinkies are for eating said:

Skenes could join the rotation this year. A dominant true number 1 pitcher is the hardest asset to obtain. 

I wonder if they said the same about Jack Leiter

Link to comment
ashbury
On 6/4/2023 at 12:57 PM, Winston Smith said:

Be nice.

 

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lets tone it down, ashbury

I thought my bit of satire was self-evident, as the OP clicked Like on my message, but just so there's no misunderstanding: what I did was quote his own self-deprecating phrase, verbatim, after another poster or two had kindly pointed out that the loophole he thought he'd discovered had already been addressed by MLB's rules.

I agree, there's no place for meanness at this site. Sometimes my sense of humor works at the edges.

Link to comment
In My La Z boy

Excellent thoughts here. Falvey sort of made a similar move to this in acquiring Gray for Petty. How did that work out? Is Chase Petty going to become a star for Cincy? I haven't followed his progress? I am sure following the Mahle for Steer trade and do NOT like that one obviously in hindsight. I agree with above posters on not getting cute and taking whichever top 5 guy is on the board. Then do a Petty for Gray type move in the off-season if that is the decision. Either way this pick won't help us this year. Take the best player please.

Link to comment
Blyleven2011

It was an interesting outside the box thinking  ...

Someday that might happen if they amend the rules  like they do with the game rules itself...

Link to comment
Doctor Gast
21 hours ago, ashbury said:

 

I thought my bit of satire was self-evident, as the OP clicked Like on my message, but just so there's no misunderstanding: what I did was quote his own self-deprecating phrase, verbatim, after another poster or two had kindly pointed out that the loophole he thought he'd discovered had already been addressed by MLB's rules.

I agree, there's no place for meanness at this site. Sometimes my sense of humor works at the edges.

If that was satire it was in poor taste. I assume that he liked that he was corrected but not the way that you did it.

Link to comment
TopGunn#22

I would like to see the Twins take Skenes if he is there at #5.  I like the idea of having the next Gerritt Cole at the top of our future rotation.  Mahle is out with Tommy John surgery and probably won't be back next year.  Maeda, when he does come back should be in the BP, and Sonny Gray is not a lock to be resigned.  With hitters coming up like Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien and Lee, I'd like the Twins to swing for the fences for a SP prospect like Skenes.  That said, the idea was pretty interesting to deal with the Pirates for Keller and Bednar.  Especially with the team control both pitchers provide and the possibility of signing each to extensions.  Keller is a quality major league SP who looks like he's finally figured it out and Bednar is a solid, dependable BP  arm that would give the Twins the back end they envisioned with the acquisition of the disappointing Jorge Lopez.  

Link to comment
tony&rodney

Weird post. Why just make something up that cannot even happen? 

Byron Buxton is going to undergo an experimental therapy where he can no longer suffer any injuries and his swing will come back to even plane as well?

Link to comment
nicksaviking
On 6/7/2023 at 7:54 AM, Doctor Gast said:

If that was satire it was in poor taste. I assume that he liked that he was corrected but not the way that you did it.

Makes me think you didn't read the article. 

Ash quoted the author verbatim. 

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...