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Where's Wallner?


Doc Munson

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Twins Video

see what I Did there?

 

OK #1 most likely already been done tons of times, and B... yeah not the best one either way. hehe

 

ANYWAYS...

The Twins continue to lose position players at a fairly regular clip.  Sano came back and was immediately done for the season, no big loss, but it was still a 40 man spot. Larnach has been down for over a month, and most likely not back until September, and will he need time to find his groove again??  Garlick was doing well then rib cartilage took him out. Buxton, has not played CF yet this month (with the exception of playing 1 inning after pinch hitting last night).  Kepler is back after being out for a spell with the foot.

With not adding any bats at the deadline, the Twins are very quickly running into the position of needing some reinforcements.

Nick Gordon is playing very well, and hitting like a regular. So that helps. But we still need depth, and again 1 injury away from being short.

The Twins will obviously not call up Wallner if he is not getting regular ABs.  And he is just now starting to dig out of a post promotion slump, but if we take on 1 more injury, it HAS to be Wallner getting the call right??

 

IF not, who else?

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2 hours ago, RpR said:

Wallner is batting .188 in the Minors where he should stay.

Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there.

Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
 

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Not sure why people mention "athleticism" with Wallner. He's been scouted as being a butcher in the field, but with a great arm. Maybe Wallner is improving in the field, too, but that's hard to judge without watching him and having better and more reliable metrics at the MLB level.

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On 8/8/2022 at 3:25 PM, bean5302 said:

Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
 

Even then I'd say he's a long-shot. Rosters don't expand nearly as much as they used to.   

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17 hours ago, gil4 said:

Even then I'd say he's a long-shot. Rosters don't expand nearly as much as they used to.   

Rosters only expand to 28 these days. 

I never quite figured that out as I would think the player's union would love to see 5-7 additional guys get major league play and join the big boy's union.

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4 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Rosters only expand to 28 these days. 

I never quite figured that out as I would think the player's union would love to see 5-7 additional guys get major league play and join the big boy's union.

The union negotiated the 26th man on the active roster for the full year in exchange for the limit on september call ups. The limit was set at a point so all teams would be able to play with rosters of the same size. In the past, playoff teams would only call up a couple players while rebuilding teams would essentially call up everybody on the 40 man. It is a matter of fairness that both teams play with the same roster size.

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Teams rarely add prospects to the 40-roster for a Sept callup.

If they think he'd be a difference maker in a pennant race I could see making an exception.

And while I wish him success, I personally don't see him as that type of prospect.

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8 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Teams rarely add prospects to the 40-roster for a Sept callup

Agreed, The callups are much more likely to be players already on the roster - Jovani Moran, Devin Smeltzer or Mark Contreras.

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On 8/8/2022 at 3:25 PM, bean5302 said:

Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there.

Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
 

Don’t forget that Wallner started slowly at AA too, and then went ballistic. He’s showing signs of making the move from slow start to ballistic already at AAA. Maybe he starts out like Miranda then adjusts like Miranda. Big time talent I think and the only one better is Edouard Julien, IMO. As of now, for me, Julien is the favorite for Twins Minor League Player of the Year (at least offensive).   He can do it all, piling up crazy OBPs, hitting .300 with power and substantial stolen base abilities.

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37 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Don’t forget that Wallner started slowly at AA too, and then went ballistic. He’s showing signs of making the move from slow start to ballistic already at AAA. Maybe he starts out like Miranda then adjusts like Miranda. Big time talent I think and the only one better is Edouard Julien, IMO. As of now, for me, Julien is the favorite for Twins Minor League Player of the Year (at least offensive).   He can do it all, piling up crazy OBPs, hitting .300 with power and substantial stolen base abilities.

It's not about a slow start per se. It's about sample sizes. It's not like you can expect players to never have a rough 10 game streak.

Julien is overrated right now, IMHO. While he's stolen some bases, he gets caught 1/3 of the time because he lacks any speed. He's an absolute butcher at 2B with a high error rate and poor range, massively trailing his peers in the league in defensive stats. I see Julien as a DH with a very high hit/on base tool and moderate power. The question Julien will need to answer as he moves to AAA next year and into MLB is whether or not his hits and walks come from being passive and waiting for mistakes or having great pitch recognition.

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2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's not about a slow start per se. It's about sample sizes. It's not like you can expect players to never have a rough 10 game streak.

Julien is overrated right now, IMHO. While he's stolen some bases, he gets caught 1/3 of the time because he lacks any speed. He's an absolute butcher at 2B with a high error rate and poor range, massively trailing his peers in the league in defensive stats. I see Julien as a DH with a very high hit/on base tool and moderate power. The question Julien will need to answer as he moves to AAA next year and into MLB is whether or not his hits and walks come from being passive and waiting for mistakes or having great pitch recognition.

Wait a minute: In 2021 Julien stole 68/78 bases. an 87% success rate. 68 steals in one season. And you’re saying that this player who stole 68 bases as a 22 year old "lacks any speed". Hmm

He’s made only 8 errors at 2B. Not sensational but quite acceptable and hardly seeming worthy of the work of a butcher.

From Matt Braun at Twins Daily: "If Edouard Julien sets the standard, it’s almost impossible for any other hitter to beat it. The on-base machine added to his legend, reaching base in all five plate appearances with a lead-off home run to boot. Oh, he also stole a base. The lefty infielder is probably the purest hitter active in the system at the moment; he should be a major league force shortly."

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2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Wait a minute: In 2021 Julien stole 68/78 bases. an 87% success rate. 68 steals in one season. And you’re saying that this player who stole 68 bases as a 22 year old "lacks any speed". Hmm

He’s made only 8 errors at 2B. Not sensational but quite acceptable and hardly seeming worthy of the work of a butcher.

From Matt Braun at Twins Daily: "If Edouard Julien sets the standard, it’s almost impossible for any other hitter to beat it. The on-base machine added to his legend, reaching base in all five plate appearances with a lead-off home run to boot. Oh, he also stole a base. The lefty infielder is probably the purest hitter active in the system at the moment; he should be a major league force shortly."

Every single scouting report from every single source on Julien says the same thing. Lacks speed. Mediocre to weak arm, mediocre to weak defense. Bat first player.

From AA this year 13 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing. Julien has good instincts, but he lacks the physical ability to be good at stealing bases. Way, way easier to steal bases in the low minors.

Julien's range factor is 20% lower than his peers and his fielding percentage is well below average. Which also aligns with all the scouting reports. Weak arm, no speed, bat first. Every. Single. One. 

Here's Julien at 2B compared to his peers with the most innings on each team playing 2B in the Texas League. Julien's numbers are truly terrible. Now, some of Juliens numbers are no doubt from being handicapped with highly defensively challenged Austin Martin at SS, but the sheer drop off between peers and Julien is pretty stunning.

Player RF/9 Fielding Pct vs. Avg
Leyba 5.03 0.989 21%
Polcovich 4.45 0.978 6.70%
Whitcomb 4.23 0.988 1.40%
Stankiewicz 4.19 0.959 0.50%
Dunn 4.16 0.979 -0.20%
Massey 4.14 1.000 -0.70%
Foscue 4.08 0.973 -2.10%
Mann 3.89 0.973 -6.70%
Julien 3.32 0.965 -20.80%
Average 4.17 0.978  


 

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On 8/15/2022 at 9:45 PM, bean5302 said:

Every single scouting report from every single source on Julien says the same thing. Lacks speed. Mediocre to weak arm, mediocre to weak defense. Bat first player.

From AA this year 13 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing. Julien has good instincts, but he lacks the physical ability to be good at stealing bases. Way, way easier to steal bases in the low minors.

Julien's range factor is 20% lower than his peers and his fielding percentage is well below average. Which also aligns with all the scouting reports. Weak arm, no speed, bat first. Every. Single. One. 

Here's Julien at 2B compared to his peers with the most innings on each team playing 2B in the Texas League. Julien's numbers are truly terrible. Now, some of Juliens numbers are no doubt from being handicapped with highly defensively challenged Austin Martin at SS, but the sheer drop off between peers and Julien is pretty stunning.

Player RF/9 Fielding Pct vs. Avg
Leyba 5.03 0.989 21%
Polcovich 4.45 0.978 6.70%
Whitcomb 4.23 0.988 1.40%
Stankiewicz 4.19 0.959 0.50%
Dunn 4.16 0.979 -0.20%
Massey 4.14 1.000 -0.70%
Foscue 4.08 0.973 -2.10%
Mann 3.89 0.973 -6.70%
Julien 3.32 0.965 -20.80%
Average 4.17 0.978  


 

I can’t find a single scouting report from a pro scout that’s recent or even old. I think that’s the key to evaluating him since I can’t see his games. A cross section of all 30 team’s top scouts would give me a really good perspective. We’ll have to see but I’m getting Nick Gordon quality vibes from him.

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1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

I can’t find a single scouting report from a pro scout that’s recent or even old. I think that’s the key to evaluating him since I can’t see his games. A cross section of all 30 team’s top scouts would give me a really good perspective. We’ll have to see but I’m getting Nick Gordon quality vibes from him.

Fangraphs 2022 - https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&q=julien
Click on the little black note/letter/clipboard icon to the right of his name for the report. Click on his name for his page and you can see his rated tools above his stats.


MLB 2022 - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/edouard-julien-666397

Prospects Live 2021 - https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2021/4/3/minnesota-twins-2021-prospect-rankings
Takes a second to load, but scroll all the way down to Julien and click on the blue clipboard icon to the left of his name to expand his scouting report.

There are 3 I found quick. He's graded as a 40 run/field type of guy. Scouts tend to repeat the same numbers and they can certainly be off, but right now, it's universal on him. I think Fangraphs had an article where they talked about him recently as well where they note even Julien knows his value is in the bat.

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On 8/18/2022 at 11:12 AM, bean5302 said:

Fangraphs 2022 - https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&q=julien
Click on the little black note/letter/clipboard icon to the right of his name for the report. Click on his name for his page and you can see his rated tools above his stats.


MLB 2022 - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/edouard-julien-666397

Prospects Live 2021 - https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2021/4/3/minnesota-twins-2021-prospect-rankings
Takes a second to load, but scroll all the way down to Julien and click on the blue clipboard icon to the left of his name to expand his scouting report.

There are 3 I found quick. He's graded as a 40 run/field type of guy. Scouts tend to repeat the same numbers and they can certainly be off, but right now, it's universal on him. I think Fangraphs had an article where they talked about him recently as well where they note even Julien knows his value is in the bat.

I appreciate the referrals but I was thinking af actual team scouts like Sean Johnson. I’m not sure any of those sites employ them or have access to them. I could be wrong.

I’ve noticed in the past from OOTP baseball who seemingly use real professional scouts - that they tend to use a lot of 40s and 50s and even 30s for minor leaguers. I’t almost like they have to earn it by doing it in the big leagues. If you know any of those sites actually use scouts employed by 1 of the 30 teams, I’ll happily take a look and accept the conclusion.

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55 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I appreciate the referrals but I was thinking af actual team scouts like Sean Johnson. I’m not sure any of those sites employ them or have access to them. I could be wrong.

I’ve noticed in the past from OOTP baseball who seemingly use real professional scouts - that they tend to use a lot of 40s and 50s and even 30s for minor leaguers. I’t almost like they have to earn it by doing it in the big leagues. If you know any of those sites actually use scouts employed by 1 of the 30 teams, I’ll happily take a look and accept the conclusion.

Oh gotcha, the professional scouts from the sites I linked you to are no good. We need the other professional scouts. The ones who are employed exclusively on team staffs who don't share scouting data with the public. THOSE scouts.

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On 8/15/2022 at 9:45 PM, bean5302 said:

Every single scouting report from every single source on Julien says the same thing. Lacks speed. Mediocre to weak arm, mediocre to weak defense. Bat first player.

From AA this year 13 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing. Julien has good instincts, but he lacks the physical ability to be good at stealing bases. Way, way easier to steal bases in the low minors.

Julien's range factor is 20% lower than his peers and his fielding percentage is well below average. Which also aligns with all the scouting reports. Weak arm, no speed, bat first. Every. Single. One. 

Here's Julien at 2B compared to his peers with the most innings on each team playing 2B in the Texas League. Julien's numbers are truly terrible. Now, some of Juliens numbers are no doubt from being handicapped with highly defensively challenged Austin Martin at SS, but the sheer drop off between peers and Julien is pretty stunning.

Player RF/9 Fielding Pct vs. Avg
Leyba 5.03 0.989 21%
Polcovich 4.45 0.978 6.70%
Whitcomb 4.23 0.988 1.40%
Stankiewicz 4.19 0.959 0.50%
Dunn 4.16 0.979 -0.20%
Massey 4.14 1.000 -0.70%
Foscue 4.08 0.973 -2.10%
Mann 3.89 0.973 -6.70%
Julien 3.32 0.965 -20.80%
Average 4.17 0.978  


 

And none of that matters even a little if his hit tool proves as elite at the MLB level as it’s been at the AA level (and every other level so far). It’s like saying an NBA player is bad at everything…except he can rain catch-and-shoot 3’s with a hand in his face.

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