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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    Yup. Duffey was a MUCH bigger disappointment than Joe Smith. We all had hope that Duffey could be a legit 7th/8th inning guy. Joe Smith on the other hand was signed as the RP version of Jake Taylor, hoping he could hang on for "one more good year in the sun".
  2. Minny505
    Sanchez? I know I was the wet blanket on here regarding the celebration of acquiring Sanchez and I have actually been impressed with him. He's hit what I expected, but he went from the worst defensive catcher in baseball to being an above average defensive backstop. If anything, I would categorize him as something that went better than expected. He's at least playable as a backup catcher. He hadn't been that since 2019.
  3. Minny505
    I saw that site and followed them on the Twitter
  4. Minny505
    Is there a site that tracks something similar to "projected WAR lost to IL days"? Seems like basis that may be the most valuable estimate we could use for how much a team has been harmed by injuries.
  5. Minny505
    Right, but I expect the SDI is going to sway that vote mightily.
  6. Minny505
    Awesome for the clarification. Thank you.
  7. Minny505
    Arraez is soo impressive at 1B and has been since he started playing there. Familiarity was an issue, but skill was not. GG voting is based off three metrics correct, not just SDI?
  8. Minny505
    I mean, Gordon is the obvious choice here. What a month! Correa's numbers are a pleasant surprise. It just rarely seemed to translate in runs in any way (#sequencing). That said, if he can keep it up it will.
  9. Minny505
    Great write up and yes, all those additions have lived up to, or exceeded, expectations. It's unfortunate that, after the trades, both Polanco and Buxton have been playing injured (at a substandard level) or on the IL. I feel like this team would be firmly in first place in the division if they stayed healthy. That's a lot of production they missed for most of the month between: Polanco Buxton Kirilloff Larnach Garlick If we can get all but Kirilloff back and healthy within the next few weeks, this team is going to be dangerous.
  10. Minny505
    That WPA for Urshela has to be one of the largest positive game for a Twins position player all season. Crazy!
  11. Minny505
    I hate saying this, but the absence of Pagan in the box score may be the reason why.
  12. Minny505
    Is Sands hurt? He hasn't pitched in a week and this seemed like a great spot to get him an inning or two.
  13. Minny505
    I never said good. I said solid and a lateral move from Urshela. Miranda: Urshela: Looks like a lateral move to me. That said, this is far too small of a sample size for Miranda to draw any solid conclusions. However, Urshela has a long history of being an average-ish 3B, which is what I mean by solid. And based on what we can possibly glean from this data, they look like pretty comparable fielders.
  14. Minny505
    I actually think we are seeing Miranda's regression to his current mean right now, and that is an .850 OPS hitter with solid 3B defense. His defense at 3B has impressed. Don't let the ugly 1B defense, which is a footwork issue, taint your view of his defense at 3B. It's essentially a lateral move from Urshela to Miranda on defense, and Miranda bangs. Arraez and Miranda are the lynchpins of the offense. Buxton is like a bonus when he's in there and not striking out.
  15. Minny505
    This seems like a more accurate picture than what TD is painting in these comments. Miranda has a strong argument for the best hitting rookie, but he is a coinflip to even place top five at this point for the league ROTY.
  16. Minny505
    The Correa opt-out is starting to get chatter on a national level. More pundits are looking at his season, along with his history, and saying that 2021 is looking like the outlier and him being a 3.5-4 WAR player is the median. That is not going to secure him the payday he is looking for. Right now, he'll get the Semien contract in FA, but he wants the Seagar contract. Odds are still that he opts out, but it's getting closer to a coin flip than any of us expected the day the deal was announced.
  17. Minny505
    This should have been a Pagan game. If you have him on the roster, these are the games you play him in. He is there to soak up an innings or two when it doesn't matter and the Twins just need to finish the game. The risk of him making his next appearance when a game is close just got higher.
  18. Minny505
    Agreed. Astros probably have an envelope sitting in the GM office with Justin Verlander's name on it. Inside is a check for $80mil and a contract for two years.
  19. Minny505
    As stated, the Pagan splits this season may be an anomaly. That said, Pagan himself is an anomaly. When checking his Statcast page he looks like a really solid, borderline elite, pitcher. And he is for 93% of his pitches. He is elite. And then, every 12th pitch he forgets how to throw like a big leaguer, and he throws a cement mixer middle-middle and it gets obliterated. It's been that way for 3 seasons now. His K% is elite and his BB% is great, but in his last 127.2 innings he has given up 30 HRs. That is good for the 3rd worst HR/9 of all MLB players still active since the start of 2020, minimum 120 IP. The two guys above him are both young SP that are learning the ropes of MLB that will probably be converted to RP roles, a la, Griffin Jax. Pagan really is an anomaly. That is why he keeps getting chances. Fixing that 12th pitch is like chasing the dragon.
  20. Minny505
    The option on Bundy should be declined. I'm not opposed to bringing him back, but I'd rather decline the option and sign him back for $5, which is what his caliber of pitcher gets. Depending on the health of Maeda and Dobnak going into the offseason, we may need a fringe veteran 5th starter that we can cut if he fails. I just prefer more upside than Bundy.
  21. Minny505
    Agreed. At least owners of MLB teams like the Mets, Padres, Tigers of the 2010's, and I'm sure others, are deciding it's okay to essentially break even on cash-flow owning a baseball team, rather than pocketing 10s, and sometimes 100s, of millions of dollars every year. And that's on top of owning all the real estate around the stadium while having the public pay for their building of operations, plus having team resale value appreciate year over year by 5%-20% in real dollars (not nominal). I equate it to receiving tax dollars to personally invest in premium real estate, with essentially no strings attached or need to pay it back. That investment generates massive cash-flow from day one. It being in a premium neighborhood means it appreciates at an incredible rate and basically never has a down year. Every person on the planet would become a millionaire if they could pull off that scam...but we only reserve access to that scam for the uber wealthy. It sucks and makes me never want to pay a penny to MLB or MLB teams for anything they might make money from.
  22. Minny505
    It's not about WS championships. The randomness of one of the teams that seems to make it to the WS every season for the last ten years should have learned you that by now. But look at their combined division championships or cumulative regular season wins between them. And the gap between the opening day odds of the White Sox being a good team vs the Mets is getting bigger, not smaller. The Luxury Tax had worked for a long time, but the teams at the top have so much money it really makes no difference to them.
  23. Minny505
    He is on pace for as many throwing errors in 2022 as from 2019-2021 combined. Eye test here certainly, but he has seemed to bounce, or just straight miss, throws to 1B on the regular. Extreme plunge is an exaggeration, but plunge is not. He went from being the most valuable defensive player in the AL by most metrics to a slight liability vs the average defensive SS, and most of it is due to his throwing. Admittedly it could just be noise, but it is worth monitoring as he approaches his 30s.
  24. Minny505
    That definitely clarifies what RpR was trying to say. If that is the word he meant to use.
  25. Minny505
    Questioning the drop off is not bias. It's objectivity. That said, the drop off is likely 3-ish WAR and Correa is a much more valuable player to the team, even at the cost. Palacios is a serviceable bench player, nothing more...not at this point. But nearly every SS moves off the position in their early-to-mid thirties. The extreme plunge with which Correa is going thru right now is troubling, particularly for his defensive calling card: an incredible arm. He's been throwing the ball all over this year. Hopefully it's just a one-season blip, but arm issues for a SS leading up to free agency can be brutal on their earnings. Look at what happened to Trevor Story. He likely got about 40% less in FA than expected just a year earlier due to a balky arm. And in this case, the potential revelation of him playing thru an arm injury does not make the outlook better for him. My point is that, unless something changes, I suspect Correa will not exercise his opt-out. He's still a solid SS, one I want on my team, but he has played closer to the level of a $150mil SS, not a $280mil SS. I can't imagine him settling for that after his last offseason. BTW - What is a sourteneur? I've never heard that term.
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