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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Getting more than a wild card bid in 2022 is a long shot, even with trade and free agent acquisitions, mostly because the starters that would put us in the World Series aren't available at a price we can pay. Hopefully the young pitchers develop enough to make 2023 more realistic. That says to me: - *don't* trade Arraez, he's just 24. If this had been his rookie season performance at age 24, we'd be moving pieces all over to find a place for him to play. He can be a huge part of the next group if this group doesn't perform. Start him at 3B as often as you can. Donaldson will need the rest anyway. - Sano and Kepler are tradeable as underperformers, and have candidates for their position (Kiriloff, Larnach) waiting to prove themselves - don't trade for rentals
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    I had the impression that his defense at 3B has been at least average this year. He's still just 24, and one of our few reliable OBP producers, so in a lineup sense, he is not redundant. Yes, he would bring back more than Kepler and Sano. But he's the kind of guy you trade to make a playoff run, not to solidify a reload.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    "What about dealing a semi-redundant yet valuable fixture such as Kepler, Arraez, or Sanó?" Arraez is younger, more productive, less expensive, and may still have more to show in 3B defense and power. He shouldn't be in the same trade conversation, IMO.
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    This works for me, especially because he is a righty, but *still* leaves trading Donaldson as an obvious choice, perhaps at the 2022 deadline. *After* a Donaldson trade, you would have a possible lineup of: Sano Garver Kiriloff Polanco Arraez FA/Martin/Trade Acquisition Miranda Buxton Kepler With Larnach, Rooker, Jeffers, Gordon as bench. You'd still have Lewis, Celestino, etc. coming
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    Sign Buxton
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    I think there is a story in Kepler's Statcast number that DOES add up to his mediocre production, and maybe to a path forward. His worst trait is xBA but it's not horrible. His hard-hit stats are good, but never great, especially for a corner outfielder. (Someone on TD once pointed out that Max's fly balls pre-2019 were long enough to be deep outs, but seldom long enough to be hits. I'm betting his 2021 flies look the same) To stand out, he needs to get *some* stat that's well above average. To do that, he needs to sacrifice something. Should he be swinging for the seats more, to get the hard-hit numbers over the hump to being a standout? Since he has good discipline, it looks like he could go there. The Bomba Squad season showed this approach can succeed, but 2019 was a world of juiced baseballs where the majority of pitches were fastballs. After 2021, the low xBA tells me he would sacrifice too much contact to be viable. His AVG is barely playable as it is. Maybe his best approach is the other way around. Shorten and flatten the swing, and work on line drives. This may seem disappointing, but he has enough foot speed, discipline, and physical strength to make this a productive approach. So, more aiming for .260/.360/.410 than the current .210/.310/.410. Is that an improvement? Well, OPS goes up by just .050, which is nice. But a sensible RC27 would go from: 205 TB * (105 H + 75 BB) / (500 AB + 75 BB) / 395 outs * 27 = 4.4 runs/game for a lineup of fly ball Keplers to 205 TB * (130 H + 75 BB) / (500 AB + 75 BB) / 370 outs * 27 = 5.3 runs/game for a lineup of line drive Keplers Which is a huge improvement
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    Look, I know it's possible I'm the only one who has read this, but I don't sprinkle bat wings over my tea every morning while saying an incantation to Calvin Griffith's poodle for this clown to come along and mess with the juju,
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    Worth considering. I can see that the Yankees will feel pressure to grab a big free agent and push him aside. Any speculation on the nature of an undisclosed injury? We know that recovering ankles have propelled Polanco forward, but *another* infielder with bad wheels seems like the last thing we need.
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    And don't forget that Nishioka literally did not know how to play shortstop at a major league level. Horrible, horrible signing
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing. The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    It also sounds like 2000-2010 Twins. Which had a ceiling of getting to the playoffs, but not the horses to make a run. If Falvine are going to show they can build a pitching pipeline, 2022 is a good time to start testing it As far as still having a lineup to compete if the pipeline delivers, it seems you have the following expiration dates: Donaldson - 2022 Buxton/Polanco/Sano/Kepler/Garver - 2024 If you don't make that, it's on to rebuilding with Arraez/Kiriloff/Jeffers/Larnach/Lewis/Martin/Miranda/Celestino, et al
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    I worry that signing Pineda only fills a rotation spot half the time. Yes, better than filling that spot with a Shoemaker performance, but still, it leaves you having to make another move, and have that work out
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    If only it had been Colome. I'm pretty sure he will be able to vault *some* team into the post season this year, but it won't be the Twins
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    I'll go along with your clarification, but this part brings up another concern: doesn't this strategy also set them up to sign players about whom they disagree with the rest of the league? Which works if they find a diamond in the rough, but fails if they fail to account for the shortcomings that others have seen. In any case, the player evaluation remains the thing they have to get right. Nothing new or surprising there.
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    Probably true in the case of Ray, but the strategy of late FA signings did backfire on the Twins here, and remains questionable for fielding a playoff team
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Right? No 25-year-old starting pitching legends defecting from Cuba that hate the Yankees?
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    I think bean has revealed the sad truth here
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Yes, the top ten is looking loaded. Edit: Cavaco's OPS might be .649, but I doubt his SLG is, with 11 XBH in 50 games
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    How realistic is Palacios being a future starting SS? And how soon? Among the shortstop-ish players and prospects, it seems the refrain is that they should not be there long term (Polanco, Lewis, Martin, Gordon...) But that doesn't seem to be the case with Palacios.
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree, and RC and wOBA do better. Even more extreme than your example is the overweighting of HR in OPS. One can be a slumping Sano. and have a good 470 SLG with an unplayable 280 OBP. The resulting 750 OPS may look average, but too many outs makes this hitter a weak spot in the lineup
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    If we attached these OPS+ to specific position averages, my guess is Sano falls to below average, but Jeffers and Astudillo rise to above average? It certainly seems like today's OPS averages are lower than 2006, which meets the eye test
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    Thanks for this. This look does also offer some hope, if we move Polanco back to SS. One could see a lineup with: Sano - Garver + Kiriloff ? Arraez + Donaldson + Polanco + Larnach ? Buxton + Kepler - That's 5 plus bats, 2 unknown youths, and cross your fingers on Sano and Kepler finding 2019 again. So it could be competitive, or even good, without having to add free agents
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    First, this whole comment is great in both vision and detail. Second, a note on these two items in particular. Your point about risk is well taken here. To compete with teams that can spend twice what the Twins can, they have to have luck not just in drafting (Buxton) and in comebacks (Pineda), but ALSO in injuries and in development of those same players. This means they have to buy lotto tickets like a Buxton contract or a Pineda contract (or Sano or Kepler or Polanco from past years) in order to make it to the top. Which may seem obvious to some of you. But it wasn't obvious to me, until LA Vikes Fan said it out loud.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Buxton and Berrios: trade neither and retool or trade both and rebuild. If both, the Padres better have quite the offer
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    I know we weren't going to get much for Robles, but to leave him out there for a thirty-pitch inning? There had to be a smarter way to lose than that
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