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RJA

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Everything posted by RJA

  1. RJA
    Nice prospect, but I guess I am not as high on this kid at this point as some, and would not have him in the top 10. I don't think the combination of performance and potential justifies this high of a placement on the list. He does have some defensive issues, his power has yet to manifest itself in a meaningful way, there are questions about his arm, and he is still early in his career. If he blossoms this year, as he might, he could very well earn this spot, but for now I think it is a reach. I am not saying I don't like this kid, I am just saying it is too early to put him this high. Personally, I would put him lower in the 12-15 range.
  2. RJA
    Great article, Nick. I like Varland, and I am pulling for this kid. One thing I like about him is that he seems coachable. We see so many young pitchers with great potential struggle and flame out, including some Twins picks in recent years, that it is refreshing to see someone who lacks overpowering stuff be productive and effective. Some players outperform their analytics (Varland), and some underperform their analytics (Pagan). It much like the NFL Combine--some players put up otherworldly numbers, but never make a huge impact, while others have more modest basic skills and become All Pros. It is one of the reasons that prospects are so much fun, you never really know what you have until they step on a major league diamond. That being said, until Varland has been around the league a bit and players see him more, we won't know for sure how his stuff plays in the long run.
  3. RJA
    I think we really won't know what we have until the kid plays more. It is not unusual for a prospect, even a college player, to come out of the gate a bit hesitant. He has potential, so let's see what the second year brings.
  4. RJA
    I always wonder why teams try to change a hitter's approach when what he has been doing has been working. In this case, it reminds me of Buxton, and all of the attempts the Twins staff made to change his approach at the plate. Finally, he just chucked all the advice except Oliva's--see ball, hit ball--and regained his confidence. I suspect there are many success stories of players who changed their approach and were more successful, but sometimes I wonder if they outnumber those cases where attempted adjustments mess up players. This kid is an on base machine (career .391), like Arraez, and like Arraez, will likely never hit with power. I don't think that is a horrible thing. We need contact hitters as well as the Joey Gallo's of the world. I would vote for letting the kid play his style at St. Paul and see what happens. I think it will be a good result.
  5. RJA
    I love TD but I am now at the point that all the speculation is wearing me down. Let’s get to spring training and see who is healthy, who is looking sharp, and who surprises. It is time for the rubber to hit the road so we can see what we have.
  6. RJA
    I agree 100% with your premise. If you don't develop your own, and refuse to sign talented free agent starters, you are left with trades as your only source of pitching, and that is not sustainable over the long haul. It is critical that Varland, Winder, Canterino, Prielipp, and the rest become talented starters, or the Twins will not be able to sustain any level of success. Trading prospects and players for pitching is a well that will run dry.
  7. RJA
    They must have something else in the works, as the outfield situation is untenable with way too many players for spots--Buck, Kepler, Taylor, Larnach, Wallner, Gallo, Gordon, Celestino, and maybe Martin coming up, and possibly Kirilloff if they decide to give Miranda a little time at first when Lewis is ready, and Farmer available as well. Giving Celestino more AAA time is not a bad idea, but I am not sure parking Wallner there does that much for his development. And, even with Arraez gone, the infield is going to be pretty crowded later in the summer with Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Gordon and Farmer, and with Julien, Lee and Martin on the cusp of the bigs. It has been awhile since Twins have had this much competition on the roster. Where is Gordon going to fit in on this roster now that Taylor, Gallo and Farmer are on the roster?
  8. RJA
    Correa was his teammate for years at Houston, so I suspect our "assistant GM" is lobbying the FO to add him as an experienced player with championship experience. I don't think that is a bad idea IF a 40 man roster solution is found, and IF the Twins perceive that his bat speed is still ok. He had a horrible year in 2020 and rebounded in 2021, so maybe he still can deliver in a parttime role. Even in last year's horrible year, he was pretty decent against lefties. He also was much better against power pitchers last year which might indicate his bat speed is still ok. He won a Gold Glove in 2021, so he can hold his own at first base. I am not saying I would do the deal, but I am saying I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand as some might advocate.
  9. RJA
    I don't see him bringing any significant value to the Twins. Either get a right handed hitting outfielder who can be a difference maker, or keep what we have. Also, you might want to update article given Arraez trade.
  10. RJA
    Four thoughts. First, trading Arraez hurts emotionally for me and many, but he is also an on base machine. We now have lost Arraez and Urshela who were two of our best OBP players last year. Hopefully, Gallo or one of the young guys steps up this year. Second, it does appear that the FO is trying to make us more athletic in adding the two youngsters. That is a good thing as Miranda, Larnach, Wallner, and Kirilloff are not really "athletic." Third, I would have preferred one of the other guys with more control and upside, but I suspect the asking price was rich. We need to get our pitching pipeline going as trading for pitchers is way too costly. Finally, I think more is coming.
  11. RJA
    I think the pandemic year really hurt Urbina. He had a good first year, and then had to sit for a year before he was aggressively placed in Fort Myers by the Twins. Then, last year, he was late getting started and only had part of the year. Development isn't linear, especially under these circumstances, so I would not be surprised at all if he did have a breakout year. Like all of baseball, the Twins are depending more and more on international players, and by the look of the top 20-40 prospect lists, we have a lot of young guys that will soon be joining Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Arraez and others in the bigs.
  12. RJA
    I don't think it is weird they considered his opinion, but to agree to the contract they did pending a physical already knowing this guy had caused the SF deal to be nixed, and then not get another opinion makes no sense. These facts certainly raise the issue of whether they agreed to the contract knowing they were going to negotiate his price down, in which case I question their good faith. If they sought another opinion, and it was the same, and then took the stance they did, it would be more understandable. As for doctor's opinions, whether he is "the" guy or not, his opinion is just that an opinion, and experts are often wrong. IMHO, the failure of the Mets to get another opinion demonstrates they were playing games.
  13. RJA
    Yes, Ted, we need to look at other options. Lopez is not a top rotation guy and only has 2 years of control. He doesn't move the needle that much. Cabrera or possibly Luzardo both have potential to be better than Lopez and have more years of control. If we are going to trade for pitching, let's make sure we get years or control and someone who can lead the rotation even if it costs more. If that doesn't work, keep what we have and add to the bullpen, or a right hand bat for the outfield.
  14. RJA
    I agree 100%. Lopez is the weakest option and only has two years of control. I would want one of the young guys with more upside and more years of control.
  15. RJA
    Too many outfielders and infielders so there will be a trade or trades. I suspect Kepler is gone, and maybe an infielder.
  16. RJA
    I agree with you 100%. The problem is that unlike the Guardians or Rays for example, the Twins have not effectively created the pitching pipeline that is necessary if a small market team is going to survive without signing free agents. No small market team can live off of free agency, but if they have a pitching pipeline, adding someone on occasion to put them over the top can be a help. Plus, having an abundance of talented young pitchers gives you the opportunity to trade pitching for big time talent, like the aforementioned teams have done. Everyone is looking for pitching so the return for young pitching is excellent.
  17. RJA
    The problem the FO faces is that they generally don't compete in the free agency market and they haven't (as yet) developed a really productive pitching pipeline like the Rays or Guardians, leaving them always looking to trade for pitchers with one to two years of control. When you have to do that regularly, it depletes a farm system quickly--like losing Povich, Steer, CES, Hajjar, Rojas, and Nunez last year. This FO either needs to sign free agents or do a better job of developing their own talent. Buxton, Polanco, Arraez and potentially Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Lewis, Lee, etc. show that they can do it with position players, now they need to have the same success with pitchers. Let's hope they do. In any event, a trade is generally not the answer unless it involves players like Ryan with a lot of years of control.
  18. RJA
    Oh boy, let's add another injury prone starter to our staff. And, as a benefit, this one only costs 27 million a year, and he would only be here for two years. For heaven's sake, if we are going to spend 27 million on a pitcher, let's get one in free agency where we can lock them in for 3-5 years to provide some stability long term without the need for a trade. Sorry, I can't support this suggestion.
  19. RJA
    Frankly, so much depends on trades and Correa's decision, that it is difficult to speculate. The first three all have a chance of getting some time in the bigs this year if the Twins move some people, someone is injured, or if they tear up the minors like Julien last year and simply can't be denied. I saw Balazovic several times last year and he looked to be a bit lost, had trouble repeating his delivery, and just wasn't consistent with location or movement. The stuff looks good, but I can't see him showing up until he has proved himself for most of the year at St. Paul.
  20. RJA
    This may be a soap opera, but if the Twins sign Correa they are a much better baseball team, both offensively and defensively, and they have a natural leader.
  21. RJA
    I am not sure about this. You look at teams like Oakland or the Rockies (who can never sign pitchers), they may think, like the Twins do with Ortega and Pagan, that they can make him better. I think it is more likely they have a trade worked out already and simply designated him now so they could sign Ortega without losing anyone else.
  22. RJA
    It will be interesting to see how this plays. At first blush, he looks like Pagan 2–has the right analytics but hasn’t performed up to expectations. I am not sure what to make of the Enlow situation, whether they know something about his potential we don’t, or they think they can sneak him through. Now if reports are correct and they are closing in on Correa, maybe they plan an all in strategy for this year. But, would you count on Ortega and Pagan in your “all in” bullpen? We live in interesting times.
  23. RJA
    Making trades is no way to build a winning ballclub because to get someone good you need to trade someone good, or young prospects. Trades are great IF you are one player away. IMHO, we aren't. If we aren't going to be serious bidders in free agency, then we need to play the kids and see what we have. A year from now, we very likely will be looking to replace Maeda, Mahle and Gray. We need to see what our young pitchers can do--Varland, SWR, Winder, etc.--because they will have to become the core of our staff going forward. I am increasingly coming to believe we need to give the kids a chance, take some lumps, and consider a--Shhhhhhhhhh--rebuild:).
  24. RJA
    Well, it is January so here we all are dumpster diving for players that “might” help the Twins. Hard to get excited about these conversations.
  25. RJA
    I think it is a mistake to trade for pitchers with 2 years or less of control. If the team wants rotation stability they have 3 options: trade for a pitcher with 3 or more years of control (like Ryan for example), sign a free agent to an extended contract, or develop your own. The cost in player/prospect capital when you have to keep trading for pitchers with only two years of control is simply too high for too short of a return. After this season, absent extensions, Maeda, Gray and Mahle are all gone. Unless our young guys step up, we will be a couple pitchers short even with Lopez. Unless this FO changes its free agency policy, we are always going to be pitching poor.
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