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RJA

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  1. RJA
    Interesting article. Three thoughts. FIrst, the Twins signed Sano to a 3 year 30 million dollar contract as well, so while the term was shorter, he could be added to the list. His did not work out. Second, I like the overall idea of signing young players to longer term deals IF we don't hand them out to players with injury histories, Kirilloff for example. Arraez I love but I wonder if his body will hold up for 5 or 6 years? With Duran, if he pitches well and is healthy all of next year, he could be a candidate. The same for Ryan and Miranda. Finally, Atlanta has a 200 million dollar payroll, so if they make mistakes in signing these contracts, they have 60 million more dollars to work with than the Twins. Still, I like the concept if it is applied intelligently.
  2. RJA
    Hot stove talk begins, John! It all depends on whether they really try to keep Correa. If they do keep him, much of the 45 million is gone as I don't have any faith that the FO will allow payroll to bump up to 150 or 155 million in order to keep Correa. So, assuming Correa is gone, I would add a good defensive catcher, preferably a left handed bat who can throw out runners as that might become a bigger part of the game next year. I wouldn't worry about offense at that spot. I would add a top starter, 2 good bullpen arms, and a right handed hitting corner outfielder with some defensive chops to replace Kepler whom I would trade. I would not extend Gray or Mahle, at least until I saw if they stay healthy. At shortstop, it all depends on Lewis and his time frame and the likelihood he comes back to 100% after his injuries. Not knowing for sure, I would look to find a placeholder IF one can be found that is substantially better than using Urshela and Palacios in the interim. If you add a placeholder shortstop to the roster it just eats up another roster spot if Lewis comes back, and I would not want another Simmons disaster. Plus, the Twins currently don't have a ground ball heavy pitching staff. IF Correa is signed, then trades become a bigger focus.
  3. RJA
    I opened TD site this morning to find this article right above one asking if the Twins should upgrade from Kyle Garlick. Judge would be a small upgrade I think :).
  4. RJA
    Five things. First, sign Correa. Correa is the best player in baseball at one of the most important positions in baseball. He is a once in a lifetime player. He is a leader. He would be of great help in developing guys like Miranda, Lewis, Lee, etc. He has personality. He shops at Dior ;). It would make a statement to the whole baseball world that the Twins are serious about winning. Quit worrying about how his contract will play out 5 years from now and try to win now. Second, don't use this as an excuse to do nothing else. Try to trade for another quality starter--don't be afraid to offer Polanco or Lee or Martin or Wallner or Larnach or even Miranda if it gets us a true top flight guy. Third, surround Correa with solid players, like Urshela who is underrated IMHO. Find a great defensive catcher even if he can't hit much. Find players who know how to get on base--you have Julien and Martin in the minors who have great OBP's. Look for established corner outfielders who have the same skills and some defensive chops. They won't cost an arm and a leg. Replace Kepler. Dump Sanchez, Sano, and Pagan. IF Acala and Stashak are healthy, having Duran, Jax, Acala, Moran, Lopez (not as closer), and Sands or Winder as a long man will be a good start on a bullpen. Fourth, have Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, and other young players work with coaches who can improve them defensively. Tom Kelly is the best at teaching first base play. Remember how much Koskie improved at third? Someone helped him improve. This team needs a dose of fundamentals. And, better medical/training folks. Finally, chuck the smartest guys in the room attitude and develop some humility. And, one more thing, pray that all the injured guys heal in the off season.
  5. RJA
    I am not a Baldelli fan, and as others have commented, he is so wedded to certain theories--like having starting pitchers only go through the order twice, and sticking with certain relief pitchers--that he has become inflexible in his management style. To paraphrase Emerson "consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." I am not against analytics. They should play a big role, but sometimes you have to rely upon your feel for the game as well. I don't think he does that enough. He has the attributes this FO has--glib, young, PR skills, knowledge of analytics--so he fits with them well. He will be here as long as our FO is unless ownership tells the FO that he has to go or they do. In that case, we know who will go. But even then, the FO will simply hire another person just like him. So, let's just assume he is here, build a rock solid bullpen, add an excellent left handed (preferably) pitcher, an excellent defensive catcher, and a good shortstop, and pray that the injury problem is not with us next year. Time to plan for next year as none of us can control anything that happens in the organization and the hot stove season is about to begin.
  6. RJA
    I don't know about anyone else, but I sure hope we keep Urshela around next year. He has been a fixture on this team all year. He plays hard, is an above average hitter, a decent to good defender, seems to be a good clubhouse presence, and has some position flexibility. With Arraez, Polanco, Kirilloff, Larnach and Buxton all having injury histories, and Correa on the way out, a solid healthy player who comes to play every day is someone I would hang onto. And, even if everyone is healthy next year, there will be plenty of at bats for him.
  7. RJA
    Henriquez, like Moran, was inconsistent as heck at St. Paul, but like Moran seems to have stepped it up in the majors. He has good stuff and it will be interesting to see how he shows next spring.
  8. RJA
    Ditto for me when I saw him at St. Paul. I am excited to see how he does Sunday.
  9. RJA
    Actually, there is less than a week of Twins baseball left. But, I was being facetious.
  10. RJA
    I am not going to BBQ Correa over one Dior comment. He shops upscale, should that surprise anyone? He has been great this year, despite a slow start, and has shown a lot of love to the team and the community. I think he would like to stay here, but it has to be a longer deal. It is up to the FO to decide. If he stays, great, we have a building block. If he goes, we have 30 million more to spend, if the FO spends it wisely ;). When is TD going to get the "build the roster" article out so we can start talking about/working on next year?
  11. RJA
    I think he was being honest, and if I want to speculate, I suspect the FO has not approached Boras about an extension, or indicated that they would like to keep him. I sensed a little frustration in his words so I suspect there was something behind the scenes that upset him. What he said is true, and he gave the Twins every indication that he liked it here during the year, so it is in the Twins court to do something. Everyone in the world knew this was going to happen, so why should we be upset that he announced it.
  12. RJA
    I don't mean to introduce an element of discord, but I wish they would have waited a few weeks for this announcement--maybe the end of the World Series--as I think some fans look at an announcement coming so quickly on the heels of the Twins pennant race collapse as a bad look for the FO. I would have waited, done a little PR work like post season interviews indicating that they were going to go all out to improve the team for next year (and not mention it was all due to injuries), and then tied the new uniforms into the new energy and FO commitment going into winning the division next year. Just a thought. I guess I am an old timer because I do love the traditionally styled pinstripes the best. Time is passing me by I guess :).
  13. RJA
    I agree 100%. I still like making trips to minor league parks, but MiLB.tv is a great resource for scouting prospects, both on our minor league teams and others. And, you can watch them anytime and switch back and forth. I know I sound like a commercial for MiLB.tv, but I really do think it is a great deal.
  14. RJA
    For me, it is always a sad day when the minor league season ends. I enjoy following prospects and the minor leagues as much as I enjoy following the Twins. I can't wait for revised prospect lists, the AFL, 40 man roster decisions, the off season handbook, etc. The hot stove league is about to begin.
  15. RJA
    I think injuries and the FO are tied as the biggest culprit. There is no way overestimate how much the loss of so many players affected the performance of the team. Yet, we have to remember that despite those injuries, the team stayed competitive until late in the year. So, with a better roster--especially the pitching roster--they could still have won it all. But, relying on Archer and Bundy as starters (whose short starts put way too much stress on a so-so bullpen) and Pagan as the closer (who cost them a lot of games) were huge mistakes. Pagan was like Colome all over again and once again they refused to pull the plug until he had cost them crucial games especially against the Guardians. Plus, this FO seems addicted to trading for players who end up in the MASH unit. Paddack was injured when they got him and Pagan for heaven's sake, and he cost them Rogers. Yes, Rogers had a difficult year, but would anyone really prefer Pagan to Rogers? Does anyone really believe they thought Pagan could replace Rogers? They did nothing in free agency to help the rotation or the bullpen (Smith? Really?) and then traded away Rogers who was their closer. Rogers had a good start to the year which means he likely would have been able to salvage the early games against the Guardians. And, Mahle had shoulder issues before they traded for him which should have been a red flag. Frankly, I think they were not planning to compete this year, but when Correa fell in their lap for one year, they changed their tune. Strange year for sure. Next year has to be better, doesn't it?
  16. RJA
    I was really impressed with Headrick last night--that is the best he has pitched all year, and that means something as he has had a nice year. I especially like the fact he showed up big time in an elimination game with a lot of pressure on him. I think that says a lot about his character and his competitiveness. He will be fun to watch next year. I don't know what more Julien can do to show he is a prospect--300 average, 441 OBP, 931 OPS, 98 walks, etc. I hope he lights up the AFL this fall and shows that he can play second base and/or third base. He struggles against lefties, but absolutely kills right handed pitching so he might be a great platoon piece at second and/or third. Finally, Lee looks like the real deal and I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up at Target Field later next year.
  17. RJA
    This game is a story of two guys going in opposite directions. SWR continues to impress and seemingly gets better every time out. I can't wait to see how he does at Target Field. On the other hand, Smeltzer looks like he is self destructing. His last 5 games have been brutal. I know he was upset about being sent down, but he has done nothing to demonstrate that it was a mistake. Hopefully, he can make a fresh start in the spring.
  18. RJA
    Good article, Cody. Kepler is a sad story--it seems to me the skills are there offensively but he is unable or perhaps unwilling to make any changes to his approach at the plate. He is a classic "what if" player. I guess I am ready to move one. I definitely respect his defensive chops, but you need much more offense out of your corner outfielders than he will ever deliver. If Wallner wins the spot in the spring, and Kepler is still on the roster, I suppose they could use him as a defensive replacement and part time center fielder to replace Buck. But, with the lack of a bat, I am not sure he has a lot of value as a pinch hitter. Finally, I don't think the new shift rules are going to help Kepler all that much, certainly not enough to significantly improve his offensive performance.
  19. RJA
    I think the Twins should leave him where he is until we see how the rotation turns out next year. In the best case scenario, if Mahle, Gray, Maeda and Ryan are all healthy and looking sharp, and if they bring another starter (preferably left handed), and if Varland, Winder, and/or SWR are ready (notice all the ifs), then I might move him to the bullpen, but I would only do it if I felt he would be an asset to the bullpen, not due to injury history. Frankly, there are so many uncertainties related to the whole pitching staff, that it is almost impossible to project anything. Another interesting off season coming I think.
  20. RJA
    Like most sports, in baseball it is "what have you done for me lately" when it comes to evaluating the FO and the coaches. After the Vikings beat the Packers, fans were ready to put the Vikings coaches and management on a pedestal. After the Eagles game, people are wondering if we can beat the lions, if we can run the ball, if our defense can stop anyone, and if other teams are simply going to take Jefferson away from us. One person posted that Monday night it was like watching a Zimmer team--the ultimate insult apparently. I really think, however, that next year might be a make or break year for the FO. If the Twins rebound and one or two of the Varland, SWR, Winder, and Prielipp group show well, and/or Mahle looks to not have a serious shoulder issue, I think the FO will have a lot of friends. If that doesn't happen, the position players don't perform up to expectations, and the Twins falter again, I think the FO might be in trouble, and they probably should be after what would be 3 bad years in a row. Time will tell.
  21. RJA
    Bullpen thoughts. Laweryson definitely looks like he could help the Twins sometime next year. He has had a great year. I agree with mikelink45 that Sands role in the future is likely in the bullpen, and if he can develop more consistency, he too could help. Finally, Sisk looked good. If he can only limit his walks, his stuff looks plenty good enough to get major league hitters out. Hope for the future?
  22. RJA
    I fail to see a reason why Correa would not opt out unless he really does like it here and thinks things are going to get better next year. Even then, Boras would opt him out, tell the Twins they are in the mix if they want to keep him, and look around for the best deal and give the Twins a chance to match. I just hope the Twins don't wait around until February and miss other opportunities waiting for a decision on Correa. Also, I am not ready to write Palacios off based on a limited number of games this year. Miranda and others have not sparkled in early trials and come back and done well--and, no, I don't think he is Miranda, I am just making a point about limited data. I, too, worry about a second surgery for Lewis and whether that might move him off short to third or a corner spot in the outfield. Time will tell.
  23. RJA
    Thanks for the analysis. Frankly, I would put Laweryson first as I think his performance justifies it. Sisk still issues too many free passes, and while I agree he has made progress, I think it is still is a significant problem for him. Laweryson, on the other hand, has better numbers than Sisk in every category except ERA, which is close. It will be interesting to see what next year brings.
  24. RJA
    Once again, Julien delivered. He now has a .441 OBP this year, together with 17 home runs and a .300 average. The question is: does he have a defensive position? It will be fun to see how he and Martin do in the AFL. Headrick did well again. He is getting strikeouts and has limited walks this year, but still gives up a lot of contact. I wonder if they might switch him to the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up a little more.
  25. RJA
    Good analysis. Yes, injuries played a huge part in the fade, but as you note, I hope the FO doesn't start down the road of "we would have been fine but all the injuries doomed us" when in fact there are issues with this team that go beyond injuries. Yes, the base running (boy, Celestino is something) is awful, the third base coaching "interesting", the defense spotty with too many boneheaded plays, especially with Buxton and Jeffers out, and the inability to get big hits is inexplicable. Getting everyone back will instantly improve this team, but the FO needs to make off season moves to solve the rotation, bullpen and catching situations, and to improve the on the field performance of the players. I do disagree a bit with you about free agent pitchers never being willing to sign here. I think midmarket teams need to commit to "overpaying" a bit, but if they do that, there are pitchers who would come here if the money was right--not all, but some. Finally, Rocco is here so we need to take that as a given, but I hope they look at changes in the medical group and some of the coaching positions (and I don't want to see Pagan again :).
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