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RJA

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  1. RJA
    Like everyone else is saying, it depends on the cost. If I was the front office, I would inquire and compare the cost for getting Rodon for two months to the cost of getting Montas or Mahle or a similarly situated starter for 1 year plus two months. They will have to overpay in both situations, so I guess my preference would be to overpay for a player who will be here for more than 2 months. What a shame the Twins did nothing in free agency last offseason. As it stands now, with so many injuries--Kirilloff, Buxton, Kepler, Lewis, Larnach, Ober, Winder, Canterino, etc,-- and so many holes in the pitching staff, I am not sure it is worth overpaying for a pitcher and two relievers even with Correa on board.
  2. RJA
    I love Steer and Julien, but frankly, if I had to choose, I would prefer we trade Steer and hang on to Julien. I think that kid is going to be special--OBP of .430, 12 homers, 62 walks versus 79 strikeouts. He has improved every year and is having a breakout year this year. With Kirilloff's continuing wrist issues, and Larnach and Lewis injured, I suspect one of these two, and maybe Wallner or CES, will be on the move if the Twins make a trade.
  3. RJA
    Lots of great ideas being floated. If I were in the FO, I would look to add Rodon if possible. He is on an expiring contract of sorts (everyone knows he will opt out) so the cost should be less, and he has number one potential. I would take the same strategy for the bullpen: two relievers on expiring contracts, preferably Robertson and one more. I would change my approach IF Montas, Castillo, etc. were available at a reasonable cost, but I doubt that will happen. Deadline deals are always costly. I would not trade for a reliever with multi years of control as I don't think relievers are a good investment. As for who I would give up in this scenario, I would not listen on Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, etc., but we should be able to add players on expiring contracts without touching them. Rodon and Robertson would be somewhat costly, but I think three players on expiring contracts shouldn't require us to give up our A plus prospects. I would fix next year's rotation and bullpen in the offseason when I see how all the injuries--Alcala, Maeda, WInder, Paddack, Ober, Stashak, Canterino, etc.-- play out and the cost of adding players is more reasonable. I would look for a good defensive catcher that costs very little to back up Sanchez.
  4. RJA
    While we all are waiting for Martin to show more promise, Julien is quietly doing what we were hoping Martin would do--playing pretty good defense, hitting for average, getting on base a ton, and showing some decent power. I agree it would be nice to see him in St. Paul for a bit this summer IF he is not traded. Wallner is off to a slow start but I think that is typical for him when he changes levels. He started the season at Wichita slowly as well. This will be a litmus test for him, however, to see if he can continue to produce despite his swing and miss tendencies. But, he might be on the move as well, and it will be interesting to see who is shipped out in the search for pitching.
  5. RJA
    I would make both Kirilloff and Miranda untouchable, especially for 1 and a half years of a starter. I think both are absolutely critical pieces for the next 3 or 4 years and beyond. If some combination of Steer, Wallner, CES, and Larnach are not enough to get us a pitcher, I would pass. Having Lewis, Buxton, Arraez, Miranda, Kirilloff, and Polanco to form a core for the foreseeable future is more important than one year of making the playoffs--and there is no guarantee that a Montas type pitcher will get us to the playoffs. What is really sad is that the Twins didn't work the free agent pitching market last offseason. I understand that there was risk, but there was risk in doing nothing as well which is why we are where we are with Bundy and Archer in the rotation.
  6. RJA
    I would be in favor of adding Bard. He is having a good year, he is on an expiring contract which means his prospect cost will not be high, and he has experience closing and pitching in high leverage situations. Perfect fit in my opinion.
  7. RJA
    IF the cost to add him is small, I might add him, not in place of a Montas or Castillo but in addition to one of them. After Gray and Ryan, the rotation is pretty weak. Thor has had trouble in the first inning this year (opener?) but has pitched into the 7th inning in some games. Montas/Castillo, Gray, Ryan, Thor and Archer/Bundy/Ober would not be bad. Plus, one of the last 3 could maybe be a long man in bullpen. I’m for it if a 1 is added as well.
  8. RJA
    One is the only option. Boras will not entertain any extension at this point. It would be crazy to do so. Trading him would be nuts as it would totally disrupt the clubhouse. And, they need him if they are going to make the postseason.
  9. RJA
    What a bright, thoughtful and mature young man! The Twins continue to impress me with the quality of young men they draft. If this kid doesn’t make it, it won’t be due to a lack of effort or commitment. I am pulling for him. Great series of interviews, Ted. Thank you.
  10. RJA
    I saw Montas went 3 innings last night with 5 K’s.
  11. RJA
    I would love to add him IF he is healthy. His next two starts will be critical. I have a hunch Steer and Winder wouldn’t get it done in this environment. It may take more. I have heard the A’s are looking for a left handed starter. If so, might they want Povich?
  12. RJA
    First, the consensus board was a home run. I had that and the TD live draft coverage open throughout the draft. Great work. I hope you do it next year. I agree with your three points. I think looking for power breakouts in the later rounds makes great sense. If these players had put together 2 or 3 years of those kind of results, they would have been drafted much earlier. Late developers and small college guys always go later, but you never know when you will find a Festa.
  13. RJA
    I would be very reluctant to add a pitcher who has some shoulder issues. If those issues resurface, he won’t help this year which is the main reason you are looking to add him mid season. Given your suggested list of prospects to trade, completing this deal means you effectively traded Berrios and Wallner for Mahle as Martin and SWR came over for Berrios. Plus, you are trading Martin at his lowest possible value. No thanks on this trade.
  14. RJA
    I would be willing to add the following types of players--those on expiring contracts or those that have at least one more year of control. In the case of expiring contracts, like Bard, Robertson, the cost would not be extreme and they would definitely help this year as our starters are mostly 5 inning type guys. As much as I like Bednar, I personally would not trade top prospects for a relief pitcher as I don't think the value is there. For an ace starting pitcher, I would trade assets like Steer, CES, Larnach and others if he have another year of control as it would benefit this year as well as next. Montas (if healthy) and Castillo fit that scenario. I don't think either Cincy or Oakland would be interested in any established players like Kepler as they would be looking for young guys to build for a future 2-4 years out. As for catching, Contreras is on an expiring contract and would be a huge improvement, but I am not sure what it would take. I would explore it however. So, if a major trade helps both this year and next, do it. For rentals, if the price is right, do it.
  15. RJA
    Three thoughts. First, with Montas, it all depends on how he does in his next two outings to make sure his shoulder is fine. If it is, I would do that trade but I don't think it is enough. Remember, Martin was a top 10 guy in MLB at the time of the trade and SWR was highly rated as well. I think they would want more, especially given the paucity of starting pitching available. Second, Pittsburg will also want much more for Bednar given the years of control. I am not keen on Quintana as I think if we add a starting pitcher it needs to be a difference maker like Castillo or Montas. Quintana doesn't move the needle much at all. Finally, I would take Bard in a heartbeat and I don't think the cost would be very high given he is on an expiring contract.
  16. RJA
    Good approach to evaluating potential trades. I am leery of pitchers who lack the most important ability--durability. While Montas and Castillo have had a few problems this year as well, they do not have quite the injury history that Lopez does. My concern for the Twins is that what they really need is a true number 1. I am not sure Lopez qualifies and in my opinion is not worth the risk associated with his injury problems. I would prefer Castillo or Montas though the price may be higher. I would like Castillo/Montas, Gray, Ryan, Paddack, Maeda, Ober, and Winder as a starting options next year.
  17. RJA
    It does look like a little redundancy with Lee and Schnobel, especially given the fact that we have Arraez, Miranda, and Steer, and now Lee and Schnobel all possibly bidding for third or a utility role, but this could all change if/when the Twins make some trades for pitching before the deadline. If they are serious about getting a top starter, then Miranda and Steer might be part of the deals. I am not suggesting Miranda is somebody I want to be traded, I am just saying prospects of value will have to be traded if we are looking for quality pitching. Plus, these things seem to have a way of working out in the long run. Another thing these selections show is the committment the Twins have to drafting players with character and high baseball IQ's. As I have watched Seth's interviews with prospects, that is something that comes across loud and clear. You build a quality team with quality people and the Twins are doing just that.
  18. RJA
    Great night for the Twins. It will be interesting to see where the Twins Daily team slots these players in the prospect rankings. I want to thank Jeremy, Jamie and the whole TD team for the incredible work they put into the draft. I had your site pulled up all night as the draft was progressing. Fantastic job guys. Makes me proud to be a caretaker. Can't wait for more action today.
  19. RJA
    This was a very successful (and lucky) pick, period. We nabbed one of the top 3 or 4 prospects in the country (number 4 on Jamie’s composite list), who has a very high floor and excellent ceiling. Plus, he will move fast and could become a part of the Twins young core. Great choice whether he sticks at short or not.
  20. RJA
    Thanks for doing this again, Jeremy. I can’t wait to get it started.
  21. RJA
    Thanks for the detailed summary, Lucas. Three thoughts. CES is a great power bat, but do you think he is better than Wallner? It would be an interesting comparison article I think. Glad we have both! Second, Raya continues to impress. The Twins are going easy with him this year which is the right approach, but I think as he gains strength and has another off season to refine his stuff, he could have a real breakout year next year. Finally, it is great to see Hamilton in the bigs. He has worked hard and put in his time, and now he gets the reward. Good for him. I am pulling for him.
  22. RJA
    I can’t wait to see how your predictions play out come tomorrow, Jeremy. Doesn’t it seem like financial demands of certain players cause last minute changes in draft boards almost every year? I have said it before, but this may be the most unpredictable draft in many years which will make it a blast to watch. My bet is Neto (Law’s pick) but my confidence factor is very low. Maybe Prielipp? Maybe Cross? The one thing I doubt they will do is take someone with huge financial demands.
  23. RJA
    Nice article. You raise an interesting issue. Would it pay to be contrarians in the draft and take the best pitcher in the draft? It is kind of like the Wolves going big when everyone else in the NBA is going small. If they did that and cut a deal to save money, they may be able to net two top notch prospects. I would only want them to do it if they were convinced that the pitcher chosen was a top 10-12 type player AND none of the top 6 or 7 fall to them. When you think about the number of top flight pitchers who had TJ, they really could have the pick of the litter. I can’t wait for Sunday. I confess, though, that like some others on the site I really like Neto. I look forward to your draft day coverage, Jeremy.
  24. RJA
    You rock, Jamie. I found this extremely helpful and plan to refer to it on draft might as I watch the selections. Great work. I am just hoping one of the first 7 drops. If not, I lean toward Neto as he has such great all around skills. But, I will be happy with whatever happens and with whomever the FO chooses. We should get a high potential player regardless of the choice.
  25. RJA
    Great comment! Yes, when I looked at his splits when I was making my original comment, I noticed that his strikeout percentage was more like 28% as I recall since June 1. That is great progress. But, he has been insanely on fire the past month so that percentage might regress a bit as he hits a slower period. Be assured, I am a Wallner fan and am confident that he will "make it", I just think that is really the only thing that might pose a challenge for him when he hits the bigs. I just read he was promoted. Great news. Thanks for a great post.
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