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RJA

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  1. RJA
    A great, detailed summary, Andrew. Three comments. First, I would think Wallner and CES will be moved up for the soon as they don't have much left to prove where they are. It will be interesting to see if the swing and miss in Wallner's game hurts him at the next level. So far this year, he has 21 homers, 62 walks and 107 strikeouts in 342 plate appearances--55% of his plate appearances result in one of the three true outomes. I would not be surprised if one of these two guys are on the move for some pitching. Second, Helman is making some noise this year. It will be interesting to see how he continues to develop. The Twins are going to have some interesting decisions to make in the next year or two on 40 man roster spots. Finally, Nowlin will be someone to watch in the coming year or two. He currently walks 5.4 per nine, and if he can get that number down a bit and lower his WHIP, he should do well. He doesn't currently give up a lot of homeruns, so that is good.
  2. RJA
    I have not seen much of Snell during his time with the Padres. If his velo is ok, and his stuff is on par with years past, I would sure take a close look. In his recent games against the Giants and Dodgers, he looked great.
  3. RJA
    Appears to be a great prospect. If he is available at 8, hurrah!
  4. RJA
    I agree with Trov. I fear that with his curve and fastballs both showing diminished quality, the change will only be a short term solution and the league will catch up. Plus, he certainly has not been sharp enough in my opinion to warrant late inning work. But then again, who do we have beyond Duran and Jax?
  5. RJA
    Absolutely would be a fit. As you suggest, in many ways, the catching position is the most difficult position to fill at the major league level. The number of catchers with modest offensive skills that have long careers is remarkable. If a team has a catcher with both defensive and offensive prowess, it is a huge advantage. But, I think the chances of Parada being available at 8 are nil.
  6. RJA
    Interesting article. You really dug deep into the potential trade pool. Thank you for that. For me, trading for relievers with several years of control is not a good idea, especially for relievers having "breakout" years, as the chance of regression can be pretty high. But, I like the guys you have identified and they are not among the run of the mill names that are being discussed ad nauseam. For me, it depends on the cost. If one of these guys could be obtained at a decent cost, I would be all for it. But relievers are too hit and miss for me to support paying too much for them. I would prefer our prospects being used to acquire top quality starting pitching, and we look at expiring contract relievers to fix the bullpen. However, if the price is right on these guys, I would definitely consider it. Good work!
  7. RJA
    Great work, Jeremy. I really appreciate the work you put in. Did you see that Law has mocked Collier to the Twins at 8? I fear that is too good to be true. In his top 100, he now has Cross at 10, Neto at 11, and Williams at 12 so it appears all of them are rising up the boards. I love your Duke picks. They both have great potential and could end up impressing like Festa and Povich have this year. I agree Miller has great potential. It may take a few years for him to develop, but he could be a nice piece. Did you consider Landon Sims at any point? He will likely be a reliever with his reliance on the fast ball and slider. If the Twins could improve his slider a bit, he could make the majors while the young core is still together. This will be a great draft to watch.
  8. RJA
    Yes, wishful thinking. But there are always surprises in the early picks so just maybe someone falls. I was interested to see that Law now has Collier ranked second, and Neto 10, Cross 11, and Williams 12. And, in his mock, he has Collier falling to the Twins. I can't say I agree with his mock, but boy would that be great. It is clear that Neto and Williams have a lot of helium. Gosh, will this be a fun draft!
  9. RJA
    Great report, Lucas. Highlight for me is Enlow having his best outing of the year. Let’s hope he can build on it. It is nice to see Festa continuing to pitch well. Both he and Povich look like solid prospects. With the number of injuries plaguing the Twins—Paddack, Alcala, Dobnak, Madea, Ober, Balazovic, Canterino, Stashak, Romero, Smith, etc—finding college arms in the middle rounds of the draft is crucial and the FO has done a good job of it.
  10. RJA
    Cross is definitely worth a look at 8. One should never put too much weight on “a friend’s” evaluation, but the guy I know who teaches at VT and was a college player says he is a great prospect—good to great natural power, strong arm, runs well for bigger guy, good defensively, and hard worker who has improved each year. But, he does have some work to do on breaking balls, though he is improving his pitch recognition. He said he is similar to Larnach with a smooth left handed swing. As his observations reflect similar thoughts from BA, Law, etc., I suspect you are right and he is probably the most consistently graded prospects. The question is for the Twins, do the need another Larnach? He is a good option. Unlike Berry, he has defensive chops though his bat is likely not quite as good.
  11. RJA
    I agree with Seth and Dman. If one of the top 7 don’t fall, I would prefer to save some money and choose a toolsy player, with an excellent defensive profile over the higher rated college bats that would still be available. I think there will be a lot of arms available in the second and third rounds and a little extra cash could make a big difference in getting them to sign. And, Neto and Williams are both great prospects.
  12. RJA
    Great article, Ted. I would only trade for a number one starter that is clearly better than Gray or Ryan. Of these five, Castillo comes the closest given the inflammation issues Montas is experiencing, but the cost would be extremely high methinks. The question would become who are we willing to surrender for Castillo. Not Kirilloff, Lewis. Winder? Larnach? Balazovic? Canterino? Wallner? Rodriguez? It all depends on the talent cost. I still think the best approach is get lockdown bullpen help first as most of the starters we do have are 5 innings type starters on most days. Castillo averages 6 plus innings per start which would help, and he at least has pitched in the postseason once. But I still say fix the bullpen first.
  13. RJA
    I for one would love an article on possibilities at 48 if the Twins go under slot at 8. Can never have too much draft coverage?!
  14. RJA
    Good player summary, Jamie. I am with you—if one of the top 7 drop, grab them. But, if that doesn’t happen, I would take Neto over Berry. I always look to the Cape Cod performances, as they take away the aluminum bat factor, and you can see how a player does with wood against first class competition, and he did well. If they could get him under slot, that would be even better. I think there will be a run on arms in the second and third rounds and some extra cash would help.
  15. RJA
    I would welcome some of these players but at what cost? Personally, I would focus on players on expiring contracts like Robertson, Bard, Fulmer, Chafin, etc. who have experience pitching in high leverage spots and in the postseason if possible. Only If one of the young studs is available on a good deal and not an overpay would I consider them.
  16. RJA
    Good summary of the pros and cons on Berry. I wouldn’t draft him as a bat only player (especially this high) UNLESS the Twins are confident they can make him at least an average defender at some position. Allocating one roster spot to a player who can only DH makes no sense as it makes it difficult to rotate players through the position to give them a day off, when coming back from injury, etc. It effectively makes your roster one man smaller. At 8, I would look for the best high potential player with great tools left on the board.
  17. RJA
    Thanks for the summary, Matt. That is the best showing by Lares this year. He’s small—6ft and 150 pounds—but is still young. Pretty impressive to strike 17 plus per nine. I hope Cave can get an opportunity with some team this year. He is playing his heart out.
  18. RJA
    I would certainly be willing to look at all options, but I think the Twins need to add one or two lockdown relievers on expiring contracts—Robertson, Bard, etc—to add to Duran and Jax to compete in the playoffs. I wouldn’t rely on young players with limited experience and no playoff experience to face the Yankees and Astros in the 6th-9th innings. And, needless to say, it would help us get to the playoffs.
  19. RJA
    Nice summary, Seth. Three thoughts. First, many people are down on Cave but I respect him for going down and playing his butt off (and doing well) to try to get back to the bigs. It shows character. Second, Helman is quietly putting together a good year. He is another one off those under the radar prospects who works hard to improve and has. Finally, I agree that Henriquez has great stuff. I have seen him once live, and on MiLB TV and if he can harness his control and find his spots, he could be special. After all, he is only 22 years old pitching at AAA, so he has some time to put all the pieces together.
  20. RJA
    I think bouncing pitchers back and forth is not as big a deal for experienced players who have had some MLB experience, but it is much more disruptive for rookies getting their first taste of the majors. Ideally, they will leave him down so he can develop some rhythm and bring him back when he will have some defined role. I think the pitches are there for him to be successful.
  21. RJA
    Great article, exhaustive list. I would consider the Twins needs to be relief pitcher one, relief pitcher two, and a starter in that order. I think the cost of adding relief pitchers with many years of control--like Bednar--would be extremely high, so I would concentrate on rental pieces that are having good years like Robertson, Bard, Bass, Fullmer, etc. I wouldn't trade top prospects for relief pitchers, even if they have many years of control. Fullmer and Bass have each given up only 1 homerun in 25-30 innings pitched. Given the propensity that some Twins relievers have to surrender homeruns, that would be a plus, especially in games where the Twins have 2 or 3 run leads late. It is much harder to score multiple runs late without the support of the long ball. As for starters, the price will be so high for Montas and Castillo that I would be surprised if the Twins pulled the trigger, and lesser arms would be no better than what they have. Fix the bullpen first.
  22. RJA
    Great article. I love mock drafts. They are great conversation starters. I have three comments. First, if the Nats do take Berry, then the Twins will have a shot at one of what are generally considered the top 7 players in the draft regardless of which one is left on the board when they pick. I have not seen Berry listed as one of the top 7 in many mock drafts. Second, like everyone else, I love Collier, but I think with the helium around him now there is no way he drops to 8. Finally, like Dman and others on this site, I think highly of Neto, so if the Nats don't take Berry, I could see the Twins moving in that direction. I am looking forward to v3.0.
  23. RJA
    Great thought piece, Jamie. If what you say about the top five is true, and I would agree wholeheartedly they are the top 5 (with Collier, just maybe, comprising a top 6), and you add Parada to make it a top 7, then it only requires one team ahead of the Twins to make an "unusual" pick for the Twins to get one of the top 7. If that were to happen, I would expect the Twins to choose whichever player drops down unexpectedly. If the top 7 go as predicted, then I would agree with Dman and look carefully at Neto, or maybe Young. I think the future of baseball is going to involve more contact, especially if shifts are banned or restricted. I agree with Law that Berry has no position in the bigs, and while it looks like Lesko could be special, I don't think they will go with a HS righthander coming off Tommy John. Generally, I would look for toolsy players with the defensive chops to be a good big league defender at whatever position he plays.
  24. RJA
    It all depends on the cost of acquisition. Bullpen help is certainly needed, and if he could be picked up at a very low prospect cost, he is worth it methinks. His BAbip this year is something like .500 which is like 200 points higher than any previous year. But, his hard hit percentage is up this year as well. His splits home and away are pretty even and his BAbip and ERA are both a tad lower away. As his salary is 3 million this year and likely to go up in arbitration next year, the A's may be willing to deal.
  25. RJA
    I think it is too early to look at anything until we see if they add a Montas or Castillo, and see how Ober and Ryan pan out over the whole season. Plenty of time to think about it in the fall depending on how things go.
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