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RJA

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Everything posted by RJA

  1. RJA
    IF Lopez, Ober and Festa come back fully healthy, and IF the front office doesn't trade any starters, and IF Bradley, Abel, Matthews and SWR pitch to their potential, the Twins could have a great rotation--Lopez, Ryan, Ober and two of Bradley, Abel, Matthews and SWR. IF they the front office wants to remain competitive, they could make a couple of adds to bullpen, maybe switch one of the aforementioned starters to bullpen (Matthews?), switch Prielipp and maybe Raya to the bullpen and find one or two long relievers from the bevy of so-so starters in the minors. They could then accept trade offers offers on any position players on the roster not named Buxton (and maybe Keaschall) in exchange for bullpen arms and position players with defensive chops, especially at first base and the infield. They could then rely on strong starting pitching, a decent bullpen and a tight defense until Rodriguez, Jenkins, Culpepper and Gonzalez arrive with some punch. LOTS of IFs.
  2. RJA
    The complication in all of this is the very real possibility of a strike, one which has the potential to cause the cancellation of the 27 season if the owners really do push for a salary cap. So, if the Twins keep Ryan next year with the hopes of a deadline deal, they may in effect only have one remaining year of Ryan. Yes, they could trade at the deadline next year, but I suspect returns will be more limited as well since teams may just look for players in the last year of their contracts and not overpay for an extra year that may not happen. I am not advocating for a trade as this train wreck of a sports franchise will mess it up whatever they do. Frankly, I am so frustrated with the Twins ownership and front office, I am not sure I care anymore. Has anyone noticed that Minnesota sports franchises like the Twins, Vikings and Wild have similar problems--they can't seem to draft and develop players worth a hoot.
  3. RJA
    Thanks for responding. I guess I am confused about the list. Frankly, I don't think there is any chance the Twins will trade either Lewis or Julien, or Duran for that matter, but if Lewis and Duran are on the list, I don't think you can say Julien shouldn't be as well. I don't think he is more untouchable than Lewis. Love your stuff.
  4. RJA
    Interesting list. Like Jocko87, I would put Julien on the list somewhere in the top 6 or 7 (I am curious why you left him out, Nick), and I think Jenkins would bring back more than Rodriguez. I think Jenkins is being viewed by a lot of baseball gurus as someone who could be a top 5 prospect in all of baseball by the end of the summer. Kepler is an interesting case. The question trade partners may have is whether he will be the player he was last summer, or more like the guy from the previous couple of years. Still, his defense would be a positive. Kirilloff simply has too many health issues to be on the list. Raya is interesting as he has pitched a total of only 127 innings in two years. I think he is one real strong minor league season with 90-100 innings away from being in top 10.
  5. RJA
    Thank you, Seth. Nobody does these interviews better than you--you have a knack for making the young players feel relaxed when you talk to them. Boy, I hope this kid can stay healthy. I really like his stuff, and he is a quality young man. I will be pulling for him. It will be interesting to see how the Twins handle him next summer. I suspect they will bring him along slowly, but he could be a candidate for the Twins in 25 if all goes well.
  6. RJA
    Prato kind of reminds me of Spencer Steer as he has not had a lot of hype and has flown under the radar, but my oh my, he has exploded at St Paul much like Steer. If he keeps this up, he will force himself into the picture for next year. And, he hits right handed and is killing southpaws this year.
  7. RJA
    You can never have enough bullpen arms, so my biggest complaint is that they did nothing in the off-season when players were available in free agency and would not cost anything in the way of prospect capital. Signing Gallo was a huge mistake—even if they thought he would bounce back some. He is left handed for gosh sakes. Why add him to Kirilloff, Kepler, Wallner, Gordon and Larnach? His salary alone could have netted 2 relievers. But, no worries, Luplow is going to solve our southpaw issue.
  8. RJA
    Good point. With Buxton, it may be the case that all of his injuries have taken a toll on his body. He is hurt so much that I question whether he will ever be the kind of player that we hoped, or have any year when he will be consistently available. With Correa, age affects players differently. Some like Nelson Cruz seem to be able to maintain bat speed into their 40’s. Others begin to lose bat speed in their late 20’s. For whatever reason, analytics show that he is missing fast balls at a pretty alarming rate.
  9. RJA
    Buxton and Correa both look like injuries and age have have caught up with them. Having 50 million a year tied up in them is going to a big problem if they don’t rebound.
  10. RJA
    Amen. Not catching up with fastballs is the first sign of an aging bat. He has looked “old” at the plate all year. Plus, I think his obsession with analytics may be messing with his mind. Hopefully, he will adjust his approach, clear his mind in the off-season and get better, even if he can’t be what he once was. Boy, if this situation turns into one of those albatross contracts, the Twins are in big trouble.
  11. RJA
    IF he is healthy, I would look at Bader. He is on an expiring contract, hits lefties well, and can play some CF. Yankees apparently open to a trade.
  12. RJA
    Am I mistaken, or are Raley's splits this year not good against lefties? Hand's splits are much better against lefties this year I think. Plus, his home and away splits are much better out of Coors Field, which is not surprising. I am not in favor of adding any reliever on anything other than an expiring contract as there is too much fluctuation between seasons. I agree totally with you on the bats. Let's not make long term, costly additions there until we see whether Buxton is every going to play CF again, and whether Lewis is an option. If not, make a trade in the offseason when the asking prices are more reasonable, and we know more about player availability.
  13. RJA
    I love this articles. Thanks, Ted. He loves to hunt and fish, so if he does develop in the Twins system and make the majors, he will love Minnesota. I think Kade is one of the most intriguing of this year's pick, He is a super high risk, high reward type of player, so it will be interesting to see how he does after some time in the system.
  14. RJA
    I'm "hooked" on Ty because he likes to fish, so he must be a good guy. But, he does look like a good candidate for some developmental work so he will be fun to keep an eye on to see how he progresses.
  15. RJA
    Does anyone have any information on what exactly is ailing Buxton, and whether it looks to be chronic and not repairable through surgery, and whether playing CF poses a risk of further or more serious injury? If surgery is required to make him "whole", I guess I would opt to have it done now as Julien, Wallner, Lewis and others in the DH spot will likely outperform Buxton. Let's get the guy fully healthy. On the other hand, if this is chronic and will never really improve, and it bothers Buxton at the plate, I think we may need to accept that he will not be the major contributor we hoped he would be going forward. He is SOOOO talented, it is a shame he has never been able to play injury and pain free for any period of time.
  16. RJA
    NIce discussion, guys. I really agree that our minor league system is struggling now, and that a lot of our top prospects are having tough years. And, of course, CES, Steer, Povich, Hajjar and others were lost in trades. If the Twins make any trades at the deadline, it will be interesting to see what minor league players will be involved. BTW, Baseball America has Jenkins at 19 in their revised top 100, joining Lee and Rodriguez. Jenkins at 19 is three spots in front of Clark who is at 22.
  17. RJA
    I can't help but recall Tony O's comment about what he told young hitters at spring training--"See ball, hit ball." I sometimes think we overcomplicate things by filling hitters' minds with a bunch of data that may not make them better hitters. Easy analytics guys, I am not saying there is not value in information. I am just saying there may not be value in TOO much information. Having someone around who has actually been successful at the big league level might be a smart addition for this team. Blend the old with the new.
  18. RJA
    I think sticking with both players for so long this season when Wallner, and Larnach to a bit of a lesser degree, have performed at a high level at AAA is inexcusable. Gallo I believe is simply unable to do better at this stage of his career. It is not unusual for a one dimensional power hitter to do well early in the year when pitchers are not quite in their groove, and then tail off as pitchers start hitting their spots and refining their stuff in the summer months. Such is the case with Gallo IMHO. Kepler on the other hand appears to be stubborn with a horizontal learning curve. I don't see any interest in his part on trying to change his approach which has failed him for nearly the past three years. And, catering to his wishes and not putting him in CF is simply nuts. He has not earned the right to veto decisions about where he plays. I would see what I could get in trades for both, and if there is no interest, DFA both. There is no way Wallner and Larnach could be any worse, and we might as well see what they can do now, and if they can't perform adequately, it is best to know that going into the offseason. The FO has really messed things up the past year and a half.
  19. RJA
    Great article. When one reads this and then Gleeman's article today on the total failure of the Twins highest paid position players to produce, it is easy to see what the problem is and what the solution is. With the exception of Solano, it seems like the Twins players are caught in a ground hog day sort of loop--they keep doing the same things day after day and seemed surprised that they are not getting better results. What is the old definition of insanity???
  20. RJA
    I would go Jenkins over Lee. In an ordinary draft year, Jenkins might well have been a number 1 pick. I think his potential as a 5 tool player separates him from Lee as Lee will never have 30 homer power. Is Prielipp undergoing another TJ?
  21. RJA
    I suggest everyone go back and read Cody Pirkl's article on Correa from June 29. His WPA is horrible, and he is missing fastballs at his highest rate since 2016. That is a bad sign. I, too, have suffered from plantar fasciitis and had pain running for years. The interesting thing to me is that the plantar fasciitis does not seem to bother him in his fielding, and the planting, pivoting and quick direction changes should be causing him as much or more distress than what he is experiencing in the batter's box. I think he is missing fastballs either because his bat is slower this year, or he has a mechanical problem with his swing. I don't think it is plantar fasciitis that is causing the problem. Whatever it is, I hope he figures it out soon. Frankly, the only bats showing life belong to Solano and the kids, so LVP on the Twins may have to be a group award.
  22. RJA
    I think Roger is spot on. If these two guys continue to struggle, no addition is going to substantially improve this team. And, I have very little faith that this FO would make a good trade anyway given last year's history. IF they are going to trade, I would try to move Gray ONLY IF they could get a good hitter, even if he is on an expiring contract, as Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Maeda are a good enough foursome if we did make the playoffs, and Keuchel and Varland may be ok for a 5 for the rest of the summer. If they can't get a quality bat, I would hang on to Gray, bring up Wallner and maybe Larnach and give them a shot. They can't be worse than Kepler and Gallo. Part of me worries that Buxton might never get "right" and Correa having trouble with heaters is an early sign of decline. Gosh, I hope neither of these thoughts is accurate.
  23. RJA
    I critize the FO for many decisions, but I really feel they did a great job on this draft. I think they had a great first day, and when I heard the commish say "Walker Jenkins" I breathed a sigh of relief that it wasn't Gonzalez. What is especially noteworthy for me is that the Twins drafted high character young men, something they seem to do with regularity--like with Lewis, Lee, KIrilloff, etc. Kudos to everyone involved in these selections--including the late, great Mike Radcliff. May he rest in peace.
  24. RJA
    Yes, but the Reds still traded for Steer which means they are interested in accumulating talent and sorting it out later. Whether Steer stays with them, or is traded for other assets, the point is that our FO blew that trade big time. I am increasingly convinced they need to go.
  25. RJA
    I think the issue is not a Miranda versus Steer question. Rather, the issue is the blunder the FO committed in making the two deadline trades last year, one for Mahle who was injured when they traded for him, and has provided nothing to this team the past two years, and the other for Lopez who had one brief period of success after years of being "meh." Giving up Steer and CES for an injured pitcher is crazy, regardless of whether Miranda was regarded as a budding star or not. The same could be said for the Lopez trade as Povich sure looks to be a decent major league starter in the making. Lopez may turn things back around, so that trade might improve, but as of now it looks "sus." I agree with Dman that the hitting has been atrocious thus far as nobody anticipated that Correa would perform so poorly, Polanco would be unable to perform, and Miranda would regress so sharply. But, the unfortunate trade with Cincy cost them dearly by taking away a potential replacement and getting nothing in return.
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